drbubb

Gold is rising now (with stocks). With a two-day rally that has come on light volume. But an important top may be in (see below). And if the recent lows are broken ... update If that GLD-116 Low is broken with big volume, the next drop could be a big one. Since that trendline up from $680 will get broken too.

"Violently"?

It doesnt look good for OZ either http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/07...e-bursting.html

SAME PATTERN will come in the Uk too, I suppose

Persimmon holds back from buying land as job cuts hit housing market Housebuilder's cautious approach to new projects reflects fears of double-dip recession and slump in demand for new homes Persimmon, one of Britain's biggest housebuilders, is being cautious over new developments as lack of mortgages and economic uncertainty affect demand for homes. The ongoing mortgage shortage coupled with the government's public spending cuts have prompted the housebuilder Persimmon to adopt a cautious approach to buying land for new homes. The move adds weight to warnings from City analysts that land buyers are withdrawing from the market over fears about a double-dip recession. Persimmon, one of Britain's biggest housebuilders, today reported a 26% rise in first-half sales to 4,657 homes, despite seeing a slowdown in the run-up to last month's emergency budget. The usual seasonal slowdown since the start of May was exacerbated by uncertainty surrounding the government's austerity measures. "There is a risk of the economy weakening if the spending cuts that are being trailed at the moment bite too hard," said the finance director, Mike Killoran. "Construction activity benefits from public spending. And what this [the cuts] means for jobs and employment within the public sector we have yet to see. "From a housing market perspective increasing unemployment is not a good thing, even if it just affects sentiment ... That's why we are a bit cautious in terms of buying new land and getting on with future investment." Alastair Stewart, an Investec analyst, said the comments "chime with more forthright statements from our industry meetings, which suggest major land buyers are pulling out of the market for fear of a double dip". Robin Hardy, at KBC Peel Hunt, said: "The first half of 2010 is likely to prove to have been like the last days of Rome for the new homes market: improving mortgage lending, a benign pricing environment and rising public confidence in housing. We cannot see this continuing through the second half, and see another step down after the comprehensive spending review in late October, when the extent of public-sector cuts is unveiled." /more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/ju...ouble-dip-fears

China Property collapse - widely predicted now. No signs of that in HK yet, prices seem to be at new highs. I am still trying to offload two properties at good prices

Yes. Ultra-low rates helped for one year, but their elevating impact is wearing off, as household incomes slide and confidence ebbs away

Problem is... The depreciating curerency doesnt help domestic buyers. In fact, they get squeezed, as they pay more for imported goods, and have less left for paying mortgages. There is no sign that the falling pound is yet helping to push up UK incomes: The growth rate is the most negative in decades ! UK Incomes are now falling, and without the ultra-low rates, there would be huge pressure on UK house prices. Sure, a few foreign buyers get suckered into buying property in London (HK is now filled with "FILTH-y"* promoters trying to sell over-priced and mediocre London properties), but I wonder how long people will fall for this trick when the Pound is under-pressure. Rising interest rates, and/or difficulty in securing decent tenants, may fright away the foreign buyers. *("FILTH": Failed In London? Try Hong kong.) Data from real estate broker Knight Frank showed more than one in 10 new-build residential properties in London were sold to Chinese or Hong Kong buyers in the year to March, the highest share of the market by any offshore investors. /source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE66001N20100701

The amazing thing is how many fall for it ! They don't want to make money, they want to "feel superior when they are investing", whether it is profitable or not. I admire the courage of Tom Obrien. He bought gold below $300, made huge gains, and then sold everything above $1200. He told everyone what he was doing, took the inevitable ridicule, and stuck to his guns, even when Gold made a slightly higher high. I think he lost some of his subscribers, who didnt want to follow him in selling. But, in fact, he has served his subscribers well, and if Gold falls back below $1100 or higher, he will have helped them to preserve their wealth better than the CIGA-King. GEI may have more readers today, if I had told people they need to hold onto their Gold when it hit their highs in Dec.2009, and also when it was near $1250, rather then tell them I was selling done, and aiming to protect my Gold holdings from an expected drop. People seem to love it when other pander to their emotions, rather than trying to challenge them in a construction (and profitable!) way

If Gold gets to $1650, then it will be impressive - A Bold forecast that he got right! But if it fails to hit $1650 by then, it won't be "because he was wrong", it will because "the banksters manipulated the price." In a way, he's already "figured it out."

...and JSMineset says: "7. Gold will certainly trade at $1650 and most likely much, much higher. 8. Stay focused and check your emotions at the door. 9. Review the reasons given early today why we are in gold. This will serve to keep you focused and not a plaything of the profiteers. Respectfully, Jim" Tell me, if you thought Gold was going to peak at $1250+ and slide to $1100 or lower, would you want to ride it down? Not me Frankly, the recent peak in Gold was bloody obvious, and if you saw the charts I was posting, and knew how to read them , you would have seen it too. Is JSM blind, or just unwilling to offer any sort of "sell warning"? I think the later.

I couldnt agree more, But yesterday looks like the beginning of the slide, not the end of it

Lower. The market will tell you when to buy from its price and volume action. Yesterday's action was a big confirmation that it wants to go lower I am not ready to buy. When I do start buying, I will probably start with 20-30% of what I want, and then add more later, as the opportunity becomes clearer. I have plenty of cash on the sidelines now

... a broken handle? ... GOLD has broken... / GLD-update BELOW its wedge, and is testing the lower Bolly on HEAVY volume. Don't trade Gold ! (Unless you are good at it.) What are the Piper's men saying today, I wonder?

...from DrB's diary / Why do people think I am not calling Gold well?... Look closely at the GLD chart: If banksters "sell a lot of future paper options" / why do you see the buying on GLD dry up? The people who have been buying GLD are losing interest, that's why GLD/Gold is going to head down, everyone who wants to buy it at these levels has enough already - not because some mythical banksters want to see it lower. Pay attention to what the market itself is telling you, don't listen to those promoting fantasies! If you look at Silver / SLV - chart you will also see more downside sellling volume (red bars) than buying volume. ??? Are you imagining things? Have you forgotten, I have made plenty of money being long gold. I rode Canadian Dollars up from last year, making more money than if I had been long gold, and then aggressively bought Gold back in March when it was below $1100. ========== /sidebar - March Dr.B's Diary - plenty comments there about how I was buying Gold- like this one: QUOTE (DrBubb @ Mar 26 2010, 11:23 PM) I didn't wait for that test - I have been buying gold rather aggressively in recent days as: + PHYS / Sprott Gold trust + Some calls on GLD + A handful of mining equities + "Paper Gold" MACE / Taels thru HSBC + Gold coins, now safely stored in my bank vault I like the action in Gold, and it may be set for a run =========== What makes you think I have missed out on anything ??? Here's Gold-in-Euros The top may have come earlier (as it did in Gold-in-Sterling) than on the Gold-in-Dollars chart. On the recent FBB-Podcast, I spoke about buying Swiss Francs, and you will see an even clearer potential top in place in Gold-in-FXF (FXF is the etf for Swiss Francs.)

He's a nutter. He doesnt even know : + the difference between allocated and unallocated gold, ot + what a retail brokers holding room is like in contrast to a bank's main Gold vault Can you really take this guy seriously? Why would you do that? Eric King goofed in playing up his story, while Jim Puplava researched it, and carefully laid out the facts

Hmm. How do they do that? The low volume in GLD suggests less buying. How exactly do banksters stop retail traders/investors from buying the GLD/Gold they want? And how do they get people to sell their Gold shares, and keep people buying Silver, so it does not confirm the breakout in Gold I take this article as "gold bug nonsense", and have bet against it: + Last week, I sold 80% of my Gold taels, most of it near the top, and used the money to repay a mortgage, + Thursday/Friday I took some very fat profits on GLD positions, from when Gold was below $1,000 + Today, I "neutralised" my remaining GLD spreads (600 oz.) by selling some $90Calls at $32.70, and: + Buying GLD Aug.$125puts at $6.00. GLD ... update If gold trades sideways, I make money (from time decay on Jan.$120.GLD calls I have sold), and if it rises, I make a little money on my GLD spread, but much less than I would have made if t had not been "neutralised" I remain long some interesting Gold Juniors, like GLW and MLA.t where I have big positions, plus small positions in many more Juniors. But if Gold falls $100-150, I will take only a very minor loss. I am now sitting on 7-figures cash (in various currencies), and waiting to see if we will see a "normal" summer correction in Gold, and/or the August crash in stock indices that many folks have predicted. As far back as 2006-7, I wanted to be in a "heavy cashed up" position before the summer of 2010, and so "here I be!" Let's see if Mineset/Thompson is right, or of my indicators have steered me well. The wait will be measured in weeks, not months.

Wow. That's great. Not exactly a discrete investment, is it?

From DrB's Diary

Look carefully. In recent months, the rental rates are breaking down, just as wage, salary, and job cuts are just beginning to be discussed for the public sector. What do you think is going to happen to incomes, and people's willingness to pay rents? My strong view would be that Rents (as measure by this survey), are about to begin a prolonged slide. I was glad to find such a service, charting rents. It is worth monitoring, and we can see how reliable it is.

Have you tried negotiating a Rental Cut Recently? Show this chart to your landlord ================================ This is not positive for BTL Landlords (I stumbled across this chart while collecting data for the Wealth Measurement project): RENTAL INDEX Rent Index: 580.287 / calculated from 5,477 tenancies - at 23 Jun 2010 02:09 /source: http://www.rentindex.co.uk/Graphs.aspx compare: Above is the average of Halifax and Nationwide indices / HPC clone : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=145722 / Yields around the world : http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/investment-rating

yes

M., I think you will find this interesting: Transhumanism Stargates And Watchers P5 Tom Horn http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xIpDs9tauw Perhaps you should contact Tom Horn, and share some ideas with him.

I worry, that Gold's long recent record of being a good store of wealth may soon take another "hit" like it did in 2008. The times we live in are not friendly to Buy & Hold, and maybe not even in the Gold sector

I'm going to copy this to: the Japan property thread