drbubb

Good post. We are singing in the same choir

His track record seems to be far better than Random. If you get direction of the significant moves right 60% of the time, and employ good risk control, you can make a lot of money. I do not expect perfection. Excellence is plenty good.

Believe me, they will ! And with full justification too. They need to refocus the economy in a way that is starts CREATING WEALTH again - Not just consuming it. It will be a painful process, and many toes need to be trod upon. Like I say, if they can get Brown and/or some of his cronies in prison, it would help to draw the line on the old "bad" ways, and show that there is truly a new way forward. Perhaps they are less vengeful than I am. But I do think they need to show accountability.

THIS IS GREAT NEWS ! ...and exactly what the UK needs: healthy and growing small businesses, rather than massive capital tied up in an unproductive investment like over-priced BTL properties. Hammering down the BTL brigade through higher taxes, and less subsidies is unwinding the foolish and reckless policies of the corrupt Brown regime. The other side of it, is helping small business through tax incentives, and less red tape. It is wonderful seeing some good leadership in the country.

He's an all-singing, all-dancing sort of guy Charles Nenner Sings "Young At Heart" He hits mostly good notes here, like his forecasts == == He doesnt always get it right. Like me, he expected a peak in 2009, a bit earlier than it came: Charles Nenner - Market's Next Move - 09/09/09

Charles Nenner on Bloomberg. / Friday, October 31, 2008 When you listen to this interview, you'll perhaps think this guy is nuts for suggesting he has developed a program that can predict markets up to roughly 30 years in advance. Perhaps he is (perhaps we all are.. I digress..), but his calls tend to be accurate. Kind of frighteningly accurate, actually. In this Bloomberg TV interview, Mr. Nenner is predicting the stock market will hit a cycle low towards the end of November, which then opens up a longer term buying opportunity. Bloomberg: Charles Nenner Sees Opportunity in Commodity Stocks: Video. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aU_Led6RikDc Note: To view the video, click on the link towards the right side, under the heading "Related Video and Graphics".

Get Ready for Dow 5,000: Market Forecaster (Nenner) http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1544558215&play=1 "Stocks will peak in about a month, and then head south..." 5,000? "Can take 2 or 2 1/2 years" / ie. 2012-2013 "Standing aside. We do not have any stocks right now."

Nenner Predicts - And often gets it right ! Charles Nenner has some d@mn good cycles ======================================= (My broker suggested I take a look at this guy) Back on 2/27/2009 he predicted a Major Low "within a few days": http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1020388644 Prior to that, he had said "Get Out! ... and stay out in 2008": Charles Nenner Predicts 2008 Will Be a Bad Year for Stock Market ... 6 Dec 2007 ... Charles Nenner appeared on CNBC early Thursday morning, and announced his predictions for the coming year. While he predicts a stock market ... http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/4055 About Charles Nenner Charles has been the talk of Wall Street since accurately predicting some of the biggest moves in the Markets over the past few years. His newsletter focuses on various financial Markets - Equities, Bonds, Commodities - Oil and Gold - and Currencies - Euro, Yen, Aussie Dollar, as well as Economic Indicators - VIX, Payrolls, etc. Charles Nenner's system uses a unique algorithm that factors in multiple cycle movements. With international and institutional clients managing hundreds of billions of dollars, Charles' advice is highly sought after. He also provides media appearances and private speaking engagements around the globe. = = = = = LINKS His Website : http://www.charlesnenner.com/

Thanks for that ! Nice photos, etc

UK Property - in GBP, USD, Gold oz. (x500) I put them all on one chart At first glance, UK property looks reasonably priced, in Gold Oz. At 204.35 oz., we are back to below Jan.1996 levels (212.44 oz.) and in the region of 1973.

Yes, a residual long, of Gold AND GOLD Shares. Maybe just 20-25% of what I had at the peak, held as: + Gold mining shares, like GLW.t, and many smaller companies + Option Spreads on GLD, which I have basically "neutralised" + A few Taels of Gold (about 25 oz. worth), representing my profit on a Gold position acquired below $1100 With these in hand, if gold starts moving up, I have a nice little base to "average up" from. But I would prefer to be doubling or tripling the size of these holdings at lower prices. The "NUMIER ISSUE" : How does one measure wealth ? Are investors too "price centric" - prefering to use only their own currencies? I think I see your point, and that sounds like how I operate. In a way, this thinking took me into an exploration of: What is weath? How should we measure it? And that's an exploration that I am still engage in. Maybe we can discuss this concept on the "About Wealth" thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=10400

DEFLATION vs. HYPERINFLATION - It is Silly to argue. Just ride the Big Swings Indeed. As I have said before: No deep crash, no panic QE leading to hyperinflation. As you may know, I am now playing the current Deflationary Swing: Plenty of cash, big positions in short-side-options (recently acquired), and some longs in Gold and mining shares. If we get a big drop here, I am well-prepared for it, and understanding that Swings are what we would be seeing, have helped me to get here, and make money while getting set up for it. (Example: I rode Gold up from $1088 to $1200-50, and then sold of it.) I think those people who are taking "one way bets" on Deflation or Inflation, are going to get frightened out at the wrong time.

Instead, we need to study human psychology - What causes panics, and how people react. If the (imminent?) crash is deep enough, the Powers-that-Be will be asked to save us. And they will be asked to find a way to get the money out to people - who can say what that will be?

?? Have you missed the point? Actually the Manic Swings have everything to do with Printing Money. The great orgy of Stimulus and QE followed the stock crash, and the next stock crash may inspire yet another, perhaps two years after the first. The point of the Manic Swing idea, is wait. Do not expect hyperinflation yet. The conditions are not right. Reckless QE and wild new schemes to "get money in people's hands" are required to trigger hyperinflation There is not enough political will for this now. What is required is a deep crash in stock prices, and a new slide in the economy, before you will see that. This concept has kept me cautious towards Gold. Some may be surprised when I turn "wildly bullish" on Gold. But not until the conditions are right. They are not right now IMHO, since I believe we are still in a big Manic Swing to the downside.

?? ... we can see commodity inflation, and deflation of incomes are not polar opposites - and an investor does not have to choose between one camp or another. Both influences co-exist. In the months to come, we will see both of these trends, sometimes overlapping, and sometimes following each other in alternation. The pressures, and price shocks will continue until the required economic adjustments are made, and the West has learned to cope with higher food and energy prices, and live on its own savings, while manufacturing locally more of the products it needs. The move towards this new alignment is too controversial to be led by our politicians and business leaders, so it will tend to progress through a series of sharp and painful "surprise" adjustments, experienced as "inflationary" commodity price jumps and "deflationary" stock and commodity price crashes. These will be painful to the wealth of the majority who are unprepared for the swings. But for those who understand what is going on, they will look inevitable and predictable. Those who are prepared can protect, and maybe even increase their wealth, as the shocks hit. The drivers of the price swings come from both sides of the globe. We have seen a clear pattern. First, deflationary pressures in the West push asset prices lower. Then, the other two drivers kick in, as a reaction to the falls, and they work to push prices higher. I call them MANIC SWINGS

Might we get a Stock crash ? .. update ... and a Gold-price drop .. update ... Before a panic, and a reckless reaction leads to money printing

I am interested in what led to the money-printing panic.

My point is that: The German currency STRENGTHENED into the summer, and for a while, "it felt like Deflation", as Jim Turk also reported. Von Havenstein was frightened by that prospect, and took the first steps towards money printing. What happened to German stocks in 1920? Was there a big drop?

TAKE ME BACK to the Summer of 1920 ... before the Hyperinflation hit Jazz Fashion Art This doesn't look like a "depressed" time, does it? More decadent than 2010. Strengthening currency in the first half of 1920 .. whole chart "Gold marks" fell into mid-year, before the hyperinflation took off Weimar : "a period of tremendous social and cultural creativity" Here's an interview with a historian/ writer: http://www.writersvoice.net/2008/03/eric-w...weimar-germany/ historian Eric Weitz about WEIMAR GERMANY: Promise and Tragedy. On the one side, there was Bauhaus, Expressionism, Magnus Hirschfeld and new freedom for gays and women, a vital and experimental theater–in short, an explosion of intellectual and artistic creativity. On the other: hyperinflation, economic depression, and bullies of the left and right rampaging in the streets, setting the stage for the Nazi seizure of power in 1933. We explore both sides of Weimar Germany and what lessons it may hold for us today.

Like Bernanke, Havenstein was stuck with an unmanageable legacy It is sometimes argued that Germany had to inflate its currency to pay the war reparations required under the Treaty of Versailles, but this is misleading. The German currency was relatively stable at about 60 Marks per US Dollar during the first half of 1921. But the "London Ultimatum" in May 1921 demanded reparations in gold to be paid in annual installments of 2,000,000,000 gold marks plus 26 percent of the value of Germany's exports. The first payment was paid when due in August 1921.[3] That was the beginning of an increasingly rapid devaluation of the Mark which fell to less than one third of a cent by November 1921 (approx. 330 Marks per US Dollar). The total reparations demanded was 132,000,000,000 gold marks which was far more than the total German gold or foreign exchange. An attempt was made by Germany to buy foreign exchange, but that was paid in treasury bills and commercial debts for Marks which only increased the speed of devaluation. /source: http://www.statemaster.com/encyclopedia/Hyperinflation == == The bankers needed to squeeze it from the German workers somehow "London Ultimatum": World War I reparations refers to the payments and transfers of property and equipment that Germany was forced to make under the Treaty of Versailles 1919 following its defeat during World War I. Article 231 of the Treaty the so-called 'war guilt' clause declared Germany and its allies responsible for all 'loss and damage' suffered by the Allies during the war and provided the basis for reparations. In January 1921, the total sum due was decided by an Inter-Allied Reparations Commission and was set at 269 billion gold marks 2,790 gold marks equalled 1 kilogram of pure gold, about £23.6 Billion, about billion roughly equivalent to 3.6 Billion US Dollars as of 2005, a sum that many economists at the time deemed to be excessive. /source: http://www.servinghistory.com/topics/London_ultimatum

.... .. Benjamin S Bernanke .. : .. Rudolf Von Havenstein .. "I will get it right this time." Rudolf E. A. Havenstein (10 March 1857 – 20 November 1923) was a German lawyer and president of the Reichsbank (German central bank) during the hyperinflation of 1921-1923. Havenstein was born in Meseritz (Międzyrzecz), Province of Posen. He came from a family of government officials and studied law in Heidelberg and Berlin. After graduation in 1876, Havenstein worked in the Prussian Justice service until 1887 when he began his career as a judge. In 1890 he moved to the Prussian Ministry of Finance. From 1900 to 1908, Havenstein was President of the Prussian State Bank. From 1908 to 1923, he was president of the Reichsbank and his signature appears on German Reichsbank notes from 1908 to 1923. Havenstein was involved in the introduction of war bonds at the beginning of the First World War. He died in Berlin and is buried in St. Anne's Cemetery in Berlin-Dahlem.

Weimar, In 1920-21 : "It felt like deflation was underway" : W-rm : glp : adv GEI's WEIMAR Room : Is a Jump in Inflationary forces ahead of US, after our Deflation Scare ? Listen to Jim Turk talk about the same period: Comparisons of the US to Weimar Germany http://www.kingworld...James_Turk.html "Bank balance sheets will not be allowed to contract, by Mr. Bernanke." "Like Havenstein, Bernanke is: 'Afraid to get off the speeding train.' "The Central bank provides the money to the government (by printing), that the market does not want to lend." Surely we should give 1920-21 Weimar period some more study Personally, I am still expecting a big stock drop in the weeks or months to come, and think that could trigger a money-printing panic UPDATE: Long Term CRB chart - since 1749 ! ... Up : source / Last 3 years Inflation TURNS - per CRB index : source Year : -Level - : T : % chg. : yrs : Cycle 1749 : 024.00 ? L : ==== : ==== : 1781 : 136.30 : H : +468% : 32+ : 1792 : 030.25 : L : -77.8% : 11 - : 43yrs : 1815 : 103.84 : H : +243% : 23+ : 1843 : 032.32 : L : -68.9% : 28 - : 51yrs : 1864 : 131.42 : H : +307% : 21+ : 1897 : 026.71 : L : -79.7% : 33 - : 54yrs : 1920 : 112.03 : H : +319% : 23+ : 1933 : 029.35 : L : -73.8% : 13 - : 46yr : 1951 : 134.86 : H : +359% : 18+ : 1968 : 097.70 : L : -27.5% : 17 - : 35yrs : 1980 : 330.03 : H : +238% : 12+ : 1999 : 187.16 : L : -43.3% : 19 - : 31yrs : === 2008 : 462.74 : H? +147% : 09+yrs? 2011 : 370.72 : H? +098% : 12+yrs? 2012 : 266.78 : L ? -42.3% : 03-yrs? ==== To 1999: 187.16 Ave : Upmove : H : +322% : 21.5+ yrs : 6 Times Ave : Dnmove : L : -61.8% : 20.1- yrs : 6 Times Predicts 2021 : 789.8 : H : +322% : 22+ : : (Wrm: 11,271, A:649, Gl:444, G:8,549 : 9/21) == == LINKS: Weimar slideshow ............ :: http://www.slideshar...eimar-republic2 Revision Guide to Weimar :: http://www.mrallsophistory.com/podcasts/weimar.mp3 Weimar-related podcasts. :: http://www.google.co...&...q=&gs_rfai= Inflation Charts, etc ......... :: http://tinyurl.com/WeimarRm

2011 - A Crash coming? Paul Diggle, a property economist at Capital Economics, said: “Today’s figures showing accelerating house price falls fits with our long-held position that we will see a second leg of the house price correction soon. “With incomes set to be squeezed further, we believe that our pessimism about the housing market will prove justified. “Prices will close 2010 below their end 2009 level and we expect them to continue falling in 2011.” Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, said: “It is hard at this stage to be optimistic about house prices in 2011 as the fiscal squeeze will increasingly kick in, which will hit people's pockets and lead to serious job losses in the public sector.” /see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...ll-in-2011.html

Good chart. The dead cat seems to have stopped levitating higher

House prices fell for the third month in a row during June as the housing market recovery showed further signs of faltering, according to the Halifax. The average price of a home fell by 0.6% during the month to £166,203, following a 0.5% slide in May and a 0.1% decline in April, the lender said. However, prices in the second quarter were largely unchanged compared with the first three months of the year. They are also 6.3% higher than a year ago and 7.5% above their April 2009 trough. Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax, said the house price data was in line with his expectations. "This pattern is in line with our view that house prices will be broadly unchanged over 2010 as a whole," he said. "A shortage of properties for sale in 2009 contributed to an imbalance between supply and demand and was a key factor driving up house prices last year. An increase in the number of properties available for sale in recent months has helped to reduce the imbalance, relieving the upward pressure on prices. The low level of interest rates, however, continues to support housing demand." Nigel Lewis, property analyst at FindaProperty.com, said: "It is no surprise that the latest Halifax house price index shows a dip in house prices; our own figures show that there has been an influx of stock over the past few months, which has served to drive prices down. "There are currently 23% more properties for sale on our site than there were a year ago /see: http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/jul/0...uccessive-month Is anyone surprised?