drbubb

... from GEI's Wealth Measurement Project Property prices have been pumped up to unsustainable multiples of Incomes. And this will not last because: + 2010's silly bullish sentiment towards property is not sustainable (& is waning already) + Real rates will not stay at such negative levels (if history is any guide), and + Boomers will be driven in the years ahead to downsize their property investments

I totally agree! Anyone who doesn't is unaware of history Compare HK: The peak was 1997, and now it is 13 years later. The Centaline index is about 80, versus the 1997 peak of 100. Same thing with Japan (way below the peak now), even though Japan peaked earlier than Hong Kong.

GOLD If the trendline is broken (likely!) and it holds the day... ...we could see a big drop this week.

Is it a family of 5 from Nigeria, with the taxpayer picking up the tab? If so, you can understand why - They prefer not to live "in a poor area"

Nenner Uses Sunpsot Cycles - But do they really work ? 'Tis the Change that matters As a separate test, we rank months according to change in sunspot activity and calculate average monthly returns for the S&P 500 index over approximately equal-size subsamples based on ranges of fluctuation in sunspot activity. As noted above, the average monthly return on the index over the entire sample period is 0.6%. The following table shows no systematic variation in returns across ranges of fluctuation in sunspot activity. If anything, results indicate that a decrease in sunspot activity may be more bullish than an increase in sunspot activity. /source: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar-effect...-stock-returns/

Was the last fall in house prices just a warning? The market has recovered most of the ground it lost after 2007. But pundits now fear a crash that could wipe 20% off the value of your home. Richard Northedge reports / Sunday, 25 July 2010 House prices started to fall in autumn 2007, more than a year before the government had to rescue HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland and before the rest of the economy sank into recession. Now there are widespread fears the property market is about to turn downward again, anticipating a double dip in the wider economy. Prices have risen 15 per cent since February last year, according to Nationwide building society, undoing much of the fall during the previous 16 months, but some economists are warning of another crash that could cut values by more than 20 per cent. Even by 2020, house prices will probably not have returned to their pre-crash levels in real terms, say some forecasters. For those people – especially would-be first-time buyers – prevented by high prices from becoming owners in recent years, bringing purchases back to affordable levels may seem like a good buying opportunity. But the reality is that while people may say they do not want another property boom, no one wants to buy an asset that is falling in value, especially if high borrowing means a fall leaves them with negative equity. The housing market's importance extends far beyond whether people own their homes. The Bank of England admits that housing is a driver of the economy; rising prices not only provide the feel-good factor that encourages us to spend and invest, but also givies consumers cash through remortgaging and equity release. John Hawksworth, the head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers, one of the consultants forecasting an imminent decline in prices, warns: "Our econometric analysis suggests that an unanticipated future fall in house prices could have a significant impact in dampening the speed of the recovery in consumer spending in the medium term." There are already signs that a property market that has risen steadily for more than a year has reversed. Selling prices fell last month for the first time since 2009, according to Rightmove, which surveys more than 90 per cent of estate agents, dropping by an average £1,435 to £236,000. Director Miles Shipside says: "This is the first month-on-month fall in 2010, and with the likelihood of more economic pain to come, we forecast further downward pressure on new sellers' asking prices." The new Government is being blamed for the reverse in the market. Not only has demand to buy property been reduced by an austerity package that puts jobs at risk and which will raise VAT, the abolition of HIPs – the Home Information Packs sellers had to buy – has greatly increased the supply of properties on the market. Shipside reports a 22 per cent jump in homes on offer since HIPs were scrapped last month. That has turned a sellers' market into a buyers' market. Instead of several potential purchasers bidding against each other for a limited choice of homes, there is now a wide variety of properties on offer but fewer people coming to view. The result is an increase this year in the average number of properties on estate agents' books from 63 to 77, while the time it takes to sell has lengthened from 63 days to 85. The ratio of sales to agents' stocks fell by 25 per cent last month, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. And the increase in capital gains tax announced in the Budget as well as plans to cap housing benefits is making landlords less keen to own properties, according to agents who report a fall in buy-to-let deals. . . . The main shortage in the market is not even buyers or land, but finance. Shipside says: "The number of mortgage approvals seems rationed at around 11,000 a week compared to the consistent weekly run rate of about 30,000 newly marketed properties." Not all homes on the market will be sold, and not all purchasers require loans, but savers are still not providing banks and building societies with the funds necessary to meet demand. Traditionally, property market trends start in London and Rightmove's survey shows prices in the capital down by 1.7 per cent last month, with only East Anglia falling further. There were increases in three of London's 32 boroughs, but upmarket Kensington and Chelsea was hit hardest with a 5.2 per cent fall. Bob Crowley, an estate agent with Bective Leslie Marsh, reports people making lower offers and more buyers withdrawing, with price reductions as sellers chase buyers for the first time in 14 months. Roger Bootle, the long-time housing bear who heads Capital Economics, forecasts prices falling much further. He reckons they will end this year down 5 per cent, which means not only reversing the 3 per cent recorded by Nationwide in the first half of 2010, but continuing down. For next year he sees a further 10 per cent fall with the same again in 2012. That would cut prices to below last year's post-crash dip and leave them more than 30 per cent below the 2007 peak, wiping out the wealth of millions of owners and leaving them with negative equity. At Pricewaterhouse, Hawksworth remains gloomy for even longer. He thinks there is a 70 per cent probability that prices will not return to their peak levels in real terms even by 2015, and an evens chance of prices still not reaching 2007 heights, adjusted for inflation, by the end of the decade. . . . For buyers, the recent relaxation in lending criteria could be reversed if banks fear the value of their collateral is set to fall. A loan of 80 per cent of the purchase price becomes an 88 per cent loan if the property value declines 10 per cent. A double dip in the housing market will cause problems for lenders as well as borrowers, forcing banks to increase bad-debt charges at a time when they hoped to be writing back previous unused provisions. A double dip in the property market will mean an increase in the number of repossessions. Nationwide's monthly consumer confidence index fell in June to 63, compared with 84 in February, and found that 53 per cent of the public questioned think there will be few jobs available in six months' time. The index shows faith in the economic situation at a record low, and Nationwide's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, warns: "Consumer willingness to spend remains part of a fine balancing act with the employment situation and levels of disposable income." Nationwide's house price figures for July, due this week, will give a clue to how the market is moving, but Shipman is working on Rightmove's next confidence analysis. "Early indications from the next survey, due out in August, suggest a swing to a more negative outlook on the future direction of property prices," he warns. "In the April survey, before the election and emergency Budget, 44 per cent of respondents believed prices would be the same or lower in 12 months' time." Of those surveyed so far for the August survey, that has turned into a 54 per cent majority. "Consumer sentiment is a major influence on the housing market," he warns. /more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ng-2034677.html

UK Mortgages are getting more expensive, as Sentiment Deteriorates Positive sentiment was dealt a blow by figures from the Bank of England that showed mortgage approvals dipped in June because of tighter lending conditions and weakening confidence. The number of loans granted was 48,000, compared with 51,000 in May. "Demand continued to be constrained by the restrictions on mortgage finance," the Bank said. "Looking forward, the major UK lenders expect demand for secured lending to be flat over the rest of the year, partly reflecting weak confidence among potential homebuyers." The Bank added in its Trends in Lending report that mortgages are likely to grow more expensive as a recent increase in their funding costs is starting to apply "upward pressure" to the rates they charge consumers. /more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ed-signals.html

Syd 22:34 GMT July 21, 2010 Uranium industry set to take off: Reply The head of WA's Mines department says the state's uranium industry is burgeoning. The State Government lifted a moratorium on uranium mining in 2008 and five companies have been given the green light to mine the resource in Western Australia. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/0 7/21/2960245.htm?section=business GVI Forex john 19:18 GMT July 21, 2010

I'm still betting on Gold being lower than here next month

My partner is frugal, and she knows I am "tight" with my spending often, too. Perhaps that's why we get along. We exercise our generosity by helping friends and family in ways that only occasionally require us to write cheques. And it is important to us both, to find ways, even creative ways, to do that. BTW, I have updated the figures in Post #1: Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx when? : ?? th - 8th Next - about on 28th :: 2009 J. : : 213,570 : 150,501 159,818 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 147,746 160,327 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW M : : 218,081 : 150,946 157,326 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 151,861 154,716 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 154,016 158,565 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 156,442 157,713 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 158,871 159,623 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 160,224 160,973 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 161,816 163,533 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 162,038 165,528 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH N : : 226,440 : 162,764 167,664 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 162,103 169,042 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 16X,- - - 16X, - - - : £16X,- - - : mom: - 0.60%: - 0.45% : They show: + A peak in the Delusion Index in May 2009 (144.5%), and that was 5 months ahead of the peak in the Rightmove Index + A peak in the Rightmove Index (at 230,184 in October 2009), which was 6 months ahead of the peak in April 2010 in the Non-seasonally adjusted H&N-Index. + A peak in Jan.2010 in the Halifax Index, seasonally adjusted (at 169,777), 3 months ahead of the H&N-index + An April 2010 peak in the H&N-Index at £169,287, and that was 9.9% above the March 2009 Low of £154,066, and also 12.1% below the cyclical peak of £192,490 in August 2007. The rally retraced about 40% (15,221/38,424) of the 20.0% drop. + A peak in June 2010 for Nationwide Index, and that has come 2 months after the April 2010 peak in the H&N-index. (I do not yet have the July figure for Nationwide, and it could be higher, although I do not expect that.) All this figures suggest that my early April 2009 cal of a 6 to 12 months rally proved rather accurate - Listen to the Podcast for details.

QUOTE / Jul 21 2010, 10:31 igglepiggle Spent all the money on shoes, handbags and nice holidays. Worry about the future when it happens UNQUOTE LOL. Have you seen the Shoe & Handbag Index? It has fallen like a stone. Worse than that McMansion in Swansea's outer rim. Doesn't she acknowledge yet that the Jones are being steamrollered? If she lived in the US, she would. ========================= BACKUP TO ORIGINAL POST... UK Property Databank - & GEI podcast (from April 4th, 2009) Cycles and Builder share prices help to call Turns : Link here ================================================ : 4 April 2009 Podcast : thread#6389 The 4.Apr.2009 podcast called for a 12 months "bounce" in property prices - & we saw that! Barratt Dev'l / BDEV : Weekly chart : Monthly chart : Daily chart READ THE CHARTS HERE ! (And examine the actual DATA below) They whisper their messages to those who can decipher them, as we have done on GEI. Close-up : H&N Index (ave. of Halifax & Nationwide) ... Rightmove's London Offering prices . Barratt closer / BDEV.L ... update : Longer Term : Last 12 months : 6 mos BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. From a low in July 2008 (at 22p), Barratt/BDEV had a long rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. We noticed a key point in the rally, and in early April 2009, predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices, and that duly arrived. We watched BDEV for a sign that the house price rally was petering out. And from Sept. 2009 and the 280p peak (184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 250 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010. Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new slide in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. BDEV continued to fall for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 250d/1 year MA, and if that occurred, if there would be a reverse the downturn in UK property prices. In early 2011, Homebuilder prices rose further. BDEV rose above 110p, and pushed beyond the 250d MA, suggesting a Spring 2011 "PAUSE" in the decline in UK-wide home prices. Will the house price rally last? I think not. The failure of the Homebuilder rally and a drop in BDEV back below 100p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume. I still expect a long slide in UK House prices into 2012/13 or later. Next Buy signal would be: after the Builder shares break up above key resistance levels on high volume. The present rally has broken above some important MA's, like 377d and 610d, but with light voliume. So we cannot take a 2011 decline for granted. But from a fundamental standpoint, I cannot see how UK houseprices will be able to overcome: a rising supply of homes on the market, the probability of rising rates, and the imposition of caps on housing benefits - all in an economic environment where post-tax disposable incomes are rising in tiny steps, if at all. ========================================= GPC - DATA bank: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009: Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009: J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 145,372 -1.22% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 145,334 - 0.03% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% :L M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 145,628 + 0.20% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 147,579 +1.34% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 151,917 +2.94% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 150,994 - 0.61% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 152,818 +1.21%/ 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 152,542 - 0.18% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 155,538 +1.96% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,214 +0.43% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+0.24% :140.6% :H N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 154,303 - 1.22% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 153,999 - 0.20% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 153,844 - 0.10% / 163,481 169,777 168,390 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% :sa F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 153,896 +0.03% / 161,320 166,857 166,928 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 151,803 - 1.36% / 164,519 168,521 168,435 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 160,233 +5.55% / 167,802 168,202 168,593 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 160,582 +0.22% / 169,162 167,570 167,207 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 159,587 - 0.62% / 170,111 166,203 165,686 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 159,348 - 0.15% / 169,347 167,425 167,497 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,607 - 0.46% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,360 - 0.79% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1% O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 158,788 +0.91% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% :H N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 153,519 - 3.32% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,622 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% : D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 150,592 - 1.91% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,803 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% : Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 150,732 +0.09% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 151,888 +0.77% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,331 +0.95% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 155,218 +1.23% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 156,544 +0.85% / 167,208 = n/a = 161,039 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :H J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 157,449 +0.58% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% : Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 156,499 +0.60% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% : A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 153,946 - 1.63% / 165,914 = n/a = 161,743 162,076 : £163,995 : - 1.64% :141.2% : S : : 233.139 : 427,889 : 155,117 +0.76% / 166,256 = n/a = 161,132 162,375 : £164,316 : + 0.20% :141.9% : O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 155,900 +0.50% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% : N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 150,627 - 3.38% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 147,373 - 2.16% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 2XX,xxx ====================================== mom:+1.58% : +1.31 % : -Est.DI : 145.0% / +0.38% = n/a = :+2.30% :+2.85% :+1.60% *Actual figure Hometrack index; others are calculated from mom changes. Criteria for indices : http://www.houseprice.org.uk/articles/house-price-indices Comparison of Criteria : http://firstrung.co.uk/page.asp?pagekey=115 Other : http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/acadHousePrices.php === Tags: Halifax, Nationwide Index, SA Seasonally Adjusted, NSA, Bull Trap, UKtrap Links: Halifax : Nationwide :Rightmove : Hometrack : Home.co.uk Mortgage Approvals = : - 2006 - / - 2007 - / - 2008- / - 2009- / - 2010- / - 2011- / J. : 121,000 : 121,000 : 73,000 : 31,000 : 48,198 : 45,723 F : 115,000 : 120,000 : 72,000 : 37,937 : 47,094 : 46,967 M : 117,000 : 114,000 : 64,000 : 39,230 : 48,901 : 47,557 A : 108,000 : 109,000 : 58,000 : 43,201 : 49,871 : 45,166 M : 115,000 : 113,000 : 42,000 : 43,414 : 49,815 : 45,940 J. : 119,000 : 113,000 : 36,000 : 47,584 : 47,643 : 48,421 Jl : 117,000 : 112,000 : 33,000 : 50,123 : 48,722 : 49,239 A : 118,000 : 106,000 : 32,000 : 52,317 : 47,372 : 52,410 S : 124,000 : 100,000 : 33,000 : 56,215 : 47,474 : 50,967 O : 129,000 : 089,000 : 32,000 : 57,345 : 47,185 : 52,743 N : 131,000 : 083,000 : 27,000 : 60,518 : 48,019 : 52,854 D : 115,000 : 072,000 : 31,000 : 59,023 : 42,563 : /source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-mortgage-approvals.php === === === === === === === === === === MY TRACK RECORD - Accurate forecasts since 2007 =============== Latest : In July 2010, On GEI I announced the UK Bull Trap rally was over. I saw this as the end of the "Dead Cat Bounce" that I previously forecast in early April 2009. image: http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/5194/001vef.jpg LISTEN / It is still relevant !: The Bull Trap was predicted in a Podcast in early April 2009 link: http://globaledge.podbean.com/2010/07/18/gei-call3-predicting-a-one-year-bull-trap-in-uk-housing/'>http://globaledge.podbean.com/2010/07/18/gei-call3-predicting-a-one-year-bull-trap-in-uk-housing/ shortcuts: http://tinyurl.com/GER-UKtrap / or : http://tinyurl.com/geiradio The techniques continue to work, and they are now helping to anticipate a big slide GEI Call#3: Predicting a (one year) Bull Trap in UK Housing =========== This GEI Conference call was originally recorded on 4th.April.2009 and examined the cyclical and psychological case for a 6 to 12 months rally in UK residential property prices. Michael Hampton ("DrBubb") hosted the conference with callers in Hong Kong and the UK. We examined charts showing the expected cyclical turning points, and pondered the impact of interest rates and government policy. The sentiment was highly bearish, but the "bellwether" of US and UK builders was already signalling the likelihood of an upturn. (Although this call happened over 12 months before it was posted on Podbean, the techniques used continue to be relevant, and in July 2010 were signalling a resumption of a Beat market in UK property.) I was expecting : A One year (or so) - "Dead Cat Bounce" I was predicting a sizable rally in UK housing prices. But warned that Buying for the Long term might be potentially dangerous-to-one's wealth. UK versus US housing prices / an important divergence: - 20.5% drop in UK housing (straight down in a clear channel- 1% a month over about 18 months), compared with: - 30% drop in US housing prices (over 31 months- also 1% a month) People's wealth was hit by falling property in the US, and they stopped spending. The US will get over it before the UK. Old Poll on HPC : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=109612 At April 2009 - 50% saw no bounce in the UK. Only 3 people (3%) said that the low was in place. People expected house prices would continue. Few people saw any signs to an upturn. == Global Edge Radio website : http://globaledge.podbean.com/ Old GE-conf. call#3 thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6389 Property's Long Cycles Peaks US Peaks : 1871, (+16): 1887, (+18): 1905, (+20): 1946 / LargerChart : UK Peaks : 1948, (+25): 1973, (+16): 1989, (+18): 2007 Centex Chart (CTX) - a US Stock (2006 peak predicted 5-6 years ago) ... an update Centex / CTX merged with Pulte / PHM - and so I am watching PHM now as my US bellwether stock Weekly PHM .. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=phm&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=18%2C%2C52%2C%2C200&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&size=2&state=8&sid=3602&style=320&freq=2&startdate=1%2F4%2F2006&enddate=12%2F31%2F2011&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=795&mocktick=1 Update to 12/2011 / LT (1994-2011): http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=phm&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=3&maval=18%2C48&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=2&lf3=0&type=128&size=2&state=8&sid=3602&style=320&freq=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F94&enddate=12%2F31%2F2011&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=9054&mocktick=1 : http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=hov&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=3&maval=18%2C48&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=2&lf3=0&type=128&size=2&state=8&sid=9328&style=320&freq=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F94&enddate=12%2F31%2F2011&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=4727&mocktick=1 / HOV : http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=tnx&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=3&maval=18%2C48&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=11420&style=320&freq=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F94&enddate=12%2F31%2F2011&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=7830&mocktick=1 / TNX CHART SOURCES: ============= Spline's website :: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/ Ziknik's charts - :: http://BustBubbles.com Chart of Indices :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8250960/UK-house-price-indices-in-charts.html Tracking UK Incomes :: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-incomes UK Household sizes-- :: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-hhsize

Where did you guys store your wealth? You probably would have done better with more Gold, eh? (Me. too. BTW. That is: more gold, and fewer Gold shares would have served me better. But the investment in HK property worked well, especially when you translate back to weaker Sterling.)

LOL. What does she think you should have done?

Mon.: Hali.SA Hali.nsa Na'wide : Rt'move HNindex : Del-Idx D : : 16X,- - - 167,260 162,103 : 221,463 164,681 : 134.5% 2010 J. : : 169,777 165,514 163,481 : 222,261 164,497 : 135.1% F : : 166,857 165,997 161,320 : 229,398 163,659 : 140.2% M : : 168,521 167,808 164,519 : 229,614 166,164 : 138.2% A : : 168,202 170,772 167,802 : 235,512 169,287 : 139.1% - HIGH in H&N-index M : : 167,570 169,204 169,162 : 237,134 169,183 : 140.2% J. : : 166,203 166,395 170,111 : 237,767 168,253 : 140.5% LOL. These comments are ridiculous ! : Property portal Zoopla has also pointed out that average UK house prices have clawed back 50% of the value that was lost during the recession, having risen by an average of £21,667 (11%) since March 2009. It added that the London market has more than bounced back, with property prices now higher than they were during the previous 2007 peak! : (You should ask yourself WHY?, and whether the robbing of savers and taxpayers, to fund a pre-election skam for the Brown regime is repeatable.) : In addition, the main providers of indices haven’t made any changes to their predictions for the year, which remain generally flat. : The TRUTH is, IF you are going TO PANIC, you should PANIC EARLY, ahead of the crowd, and get a good price. Those who panicked back in Sept, or Octtober 2007 when prices began to fall did themselves a big favor. Those that hang on, see prices slide 15%, 20%, or more and, THEN PANIC, are going to regret it. I hope the reporter who wrote the article takes his own advice, so he can learn an important lesson.

THREE MONTHS SLIDE has already happened (in the Halifax Index)... Last week the Halifax reported the third consecutive monthly drop in house prices, which the lender's chief economist, Martin Ellis, said was largely in line with expectations. He, like many other commentators, expects prices to either flatline or fall by the end of the year. /more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2010/...-housing-market

Competition heats up amongst Property Forecasters

My eyes see cycles We've already seen, or will soon see, the mid-cycle (blue) low

UK BUILDERS are selling off rather heavily today .. update I suppose posting my podcast did that. / Haha

Great Idea.

GOLDFINGER's Houses-in-Gold Chart ========================================= First, thanks to Goldfinger, on the Main board's property thread: (G0ldfinger, dated Mar 4 2011, 04:40 PM) : Alongside this chart, you may want to look at cycles for more "granular" detail, especially with the "Builders as a bellwether" == == == (ANSWER to Question from previous post): QUOTE (ecoface @ Jul 19 2010, 06:51 PM) Bubb, You should not use BDEV when using longer term charts because they diluted their shares massively last year you will recall. I would strongly suggest you use Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley Homes instead. Otherwise it undermines your argument. Just thought I'd offer that. === UNQUOTE === I see you point, but BDEV was the best indicator up to that point, and was the one that I referred to in the 2009 Podcast. So into that way, I am stuck with it, if I am updating those discussions.

U.K. Home Asking Prices Drop for the First Time This Year on Supply Glut By Fergal O’Brien - Jul 18, 2010 U.K. home sellers cut prices for the first time this year in July and will probably keep doing so for the remainder of 2010, Rightmove Plc said. Asking prices fell 0.6 percent to 236,332 pounds ($364,708) and will drop 7 percent in the second half, wiping out gains so far this year, the operator of the nation’s biggest property website said in a statement in London today. In the U.K. capital, the cost of a home dropped 1.7 percent, led by Kensington and Chelsea, its most expensive district. Government budget cuts to curb the record deficit have spooked consumers and sent Nationwide Building Society’s gauge of confidence to its lowest in a year. Tighter lending rules and a supply glut may also restrain home-price inflation as about 30,000 new homes come onto the market every week, almost three times the number of mortgages granted, Rightmove said. “Estate agents are suffering from podgy portfolios, and buyers’ fitness to purchase is in correspondingly poor shape,” Rightmove Commercial Director Miles Shipside said in the statement. “With agents beginning to choke on a surfeit of new stock, sellers are going to have to price at bargain levels.” The monthly drop in asking prices in July was the first since December. From a year earlier, prices rose 3.7 percent, down from a 5 percent annual pace in June, Rightmove said. London Falling In London, prices fell 1.7 percent on the month to 422,248 pounds, with drops recorded in 29 of the capital’s 32 districts. Kensington and Chelsea, where prices fell 5.2 percent, remains the most expensive location, and the average home price of 1.82 million pounds there is almost nine times more than in the city’s cheapest area, Barking and Dagenham. The capital’s only gains were in Hounslow, Richmond-upon-Thames, and Islington. /more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-18/u...upply-glut.html

My own Forecasting record ... using UK Builders as a BELLWETHER ================================================================= BDEV, and other Builders have given us many excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. SUMMARY OF HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS since 2005 My predictions go back to 2006, when I started this website, and even before that. In fact, I started making predictions in 2004 (or earlier) on HousepriceCrash.co.uk ("HPC"). From the beginning, I had a Bearish bias, but I studiously watched the share prices of the UK Builders for clues of market turns. Back then, I developed a tool, an index of five Builders' share prices (the "combi-5" index.) The idea was that I could use "Real time" data from share prices, to make predictions of turning points in UK house prices, employing the same techniques of technical analysis that I used in trading stocks. The big advantage was that I would not have to wait weeks of months for an Index figure to be released. My historical research also suggested that the Builders index would turn earlier, giving an early warning of 6 -12 months ahead of when the Index figures turned lower. I had observed this Earlier Turn phenomenon in various markets, including Hong Kong, the USA, and the UK. Here's a chart from 2011, showing how my bellwether index preceded the downturn in UK Housing indicies. Combi-5 Index = (TW + BDEV + PSN + WLB + BBY) The chart above was produced by a UK website ( http://HousePrices.uk.net ) which employed the techniques that I developed and explained on various HPC threads, now sadly deleted. The five builders included: Taylor Woodrow, Barratt Developments, Persimmon, Wilson Bowden, and Balfour Beatty. Due to mergers and stock splits, it became increasingly difficult to keep the index consistent, so I eventually switched using mainly Barratt (symbol: BDEV.L) as my principal bellwether. In October 2005 : I got a brief false signal, suggesting the Combi-5 composite index had broken a key MA trendline. (This was driven mainly by one weak stock, BBY-2005, which broke below the 252d trendline for about a month. While others like BDEV-05 and PSN-05 never got close. And TW-05 only just touched the 252d MA) The false signal only lasted a few days, and a sharp bounceback rally in November persuaded me that my Bearish call was wrong, so I switched to a "Cautious" stance from Outright Bearish. A strong two year rally into mid-2007 ensued. This proved to be the final blowoff phase of the UK property cycle, In Mid- 2007 : BDEV-07 and PSN-07 both rolled over in late 2006. Finally in June 2007, both broke their 252d MA, confirming that a major bear market for UK property was underway. I was so confident that this signaled a major Trend change, that I wrote an article about it ("The Rich Feast In London Has Left A Property Bubble In Its Wake"), which was picked up on various online websites, such as Financial Sense (July 2007) and Escape Artist (Aug. 2007.) I also did an interview with Dominic Frisby in July 2007, which I later turned into a Youtube video: : This proved to be a very timely forecast, since the various indices peaked one-by-one as the second half of 2007 wore on: : UK INDEX- : PeakPrice : Month/Year : === Month/Year : LowPrice : Change (mo's down) + Halifax----- : £201,081 - Aug. 2007 ... Low: Mar. 2009 : £157,066 - 21.9% (in 19 months) + "Haliwide": £192,490- Aug. 2007 ... Low: Feb.2009 : £153,477- 20.3% (in 18 months) + Nationwide : £186,044 - Oct. 2007 ... Low: Feb. 2009 : £147,746 - 20.6% (in 16 months) + Rightmove- : £241,642 - Oct. 2007 ... Low: Jan. 2009 : £213,570 - 21.6% (in 15 months) + Gtr.London : £412,731 - Nov. 2007 ... Low: Jan. 2009 : £386,653*- 6.31% (in 14 months) ===== *There was One Month with a Lower low (Aug.2008, at £379,162*- 8.1%, in 9 months) The "Haliwide" Index (which is the average of Halifax and nationwide), fell 20.3% over 18 months, or an average of about 1% per month. Based on Elliott Wave patterns, I expected the entire correction to proceed as a Zigzag, with a rally and then a second low years later. So I was prepared for the rally to come when few were expecting it*, but I doubted whether many could make much money buying property near the first low. Nevertheless, I thought that the big drop in interest rates engineered by the BofE would be enough generate a healthy, multi-month rally. / You can hear some of my thoughts near the bottom of that first Low, in a GER podcast : recorded in April 2009, In hindsight, I was mostly right on the big picture for UK property, but missed the very substantial outpeformance by London./ USING BDEV to Forecast House Prices in the 2009-13 "Range Trading phase" From major double LOWS in 2008 (July at 22p, and Nov at 43p), Barratt/BDEV had a long A-B-C rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. At a key point in the rally, I noticed that BDEV's price suddenly shot up in late March 2009, and broke a downtrend. So in early April 2009, I predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices. (Want to hear that forecast? There's a link to a Apr.4th, 2009 podcast - LINK - that you can still listen to, while looking at the Charts I described: CHART LINK.) Today, with perfect hindsight we can see a major low was made in HaliWide prices at £153,477 in Feb. and £154,066 in March 2009 - but those March figures were not available until mid-April - so my early April 2009 podcast was both early and accurate. The rally I expected in 2009 duly arrived as buyers responded to the BofE's near-Zero Interest Rate Policy. Trading Range I did not think that the downwards correction was over after just a 2-year drop: I suggested watching BDEV for a sign that the 2009 house price rally would peter out. From Sept. 2009 and its 280p peak (=184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 252 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010 (in a chart better adjusted for the rights issue - different than the one shown above.) I correctly anticipated that the confirmed break of BDEV's 1yr-MA would signal a renewed drop in UK Houseprices. Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the HaliWide / H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new downwards drift in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. But prices only fell by £7,946 (-4.7%) to £161,341 in seasonal low of Jan. 2011. : BDEV slid lower for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in BDEV and other UK builder stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 252d/1 year MA near 100p, thinking if that occurred, it should signal a reversal the downturn drift in UK property prices. BDEV rose above 110p, pushing beyond the 252d MA, suggesting that Spring 2011 would bring "upwards bounce" UK-wide home prices. But the action was unconvincing, despite the upwards trend. Early in 2011, I asked on GEI: "Will the UK house price rally last? I think not." The Homebuilder rally faded after the Spring of 2011, and BDEV rolled over at 120p and slid into the summer, as global stock markets suffered a correction. BDEV made a low of 65P in Aug. 2011. And following that pattern with several months lag, the UK Haliwide index peaked at £166,723 in July, and drifted down to a low of £160,554 in Jan. 2012. That was 5-months after the Low in Barratt's stock. In Q4-2011, the stock market pessimism was overdone. Global stock markets rallied, and that helped to propel a nice jump in BDEV, all the way up to 150p+ in March 2012. That was a 34% higher high than we saw in 2011. But so far, UK-wide Houseprices have lagged behind the levels seen in the prior year. Perhaps Barratt's share price is benefitting from its London focus, where house prices ARE hitting new highs. Even so, as I write this in July 2012, the stock remains in a clear long term downchannel, albeit it has risen to the top of that channel. BDEV has surged again after a Spring dip, rising to over 140p but remains below its 153p high. A drop in BDEV back below key support at/near 110p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume in the housing markets. I expect we will see that after the London Olympics, when I expect realism to return to UK property markets. I still expect a serious slide in UK House prices into 2013 or later. = = = = = = = = BARRATT Development Plc / BDEV - - - The Big Picture ... update MY TRACK RECORD - Many Accurate forecasts since 2007 =============== Latest : In July 2010, On GEI I announced the UK Bull Trap rally was over. I saw this as the end of the "Dead Cat Bounce" that I previously forecast in early April 2009. image: http://img251.images...5194/001vef.jpg LISTEN / It is still relevant !: The Bull Trap was predicted in a Podcast in early April 2009 link: http://globaledge.po...-in-uk-housing/ shortcuts: http://tinyurl.com/GER-UKtrap / or : http://tinyurl.com/geiradio The techniques continue to work, and they are now helping to anticipate a big slide GEI Call#3: Predicting a (one year) Bull Trap in UK Housing =========== This GEI Conference call was originally recorded on 4th.April.2009 and examined the cyclical and psychological case for a 6 to 12 months rally in UK residential property prices. Michael Hampton ("DrBubb") hosted the conference with callers in Hong Kong and the UK. We examined charts showing the expected cyclical turning points, and pondered the impact of interest rates and government policy. The sentiment was highly bearish, but the "bellwether" of US and UK builders was already signalling the likelihood of an upturn. (Although this call happened over 12 months before it was posted on Podbean, the techniques used continue to be relevant, and in July 2010 were signalling a resumption of a Beat market in UK property.) I was expecting : A One year (or so) - "Dead Cat Bounce" I was predicting a sizable rally in UK housing prices. But warned that Buying for the Long term might be potentially dangerous-to-one's wealth. UK versus US housing prices / an important divergence: - 20.5% drop in UK housing (straight down in a clear channel- 1% a month over about 18 months), compared with: - 30% drop in US housing prices (over 31 months- also 1% a month) People's wealth was hit by falling property in the US, and they stopped spending. The US will get over it before the UK. Old Poll on HPC : http://www.housepric...howtopic=109612 At April 2009 - 50% saw no bounce in the UK. Only 3 people (3%) said that the low was in place. People expected house prices would continue. Few people saw any signs to an upturn. 2009 SURVEY - Shows the power of Contrarian thinking, how usual my views were: BACK AT THE LOWS in April 2009, Few saw that the Turn was already underway - most expected more falls ahead. Here's the old survey from HPC in April 2009: POLL: Speed of UK House price declines (118 member(s) had cast votes in April 2009) ==== How are you experiencing house price declines in your area of the UK? [13.56%] : Property price falls are speeding up (16 votes ) [50.00%] : Crash cruise speed underway - prices are falling at a fairly steady rate (59 votes ) [16.10%] : The rate of decline has slowed noticeably (19 votes ) [: 2.54%] : Prices seem to be stable - have stopped falling (3 votes ) [: 0.00%] : Prices are now showing a slight uptrend (0 votes ) [16.10%] : The picture is very mixed. No conclusion is possible (19 votes ) [: 1.69%] : No comment (2 votes ) My belief about a bounce, or signs of stability, if we see them : [50.00%] : There will be no bounce this year (59 votes ) [38.98%] : What I am seeing, will be nothing but a Spring bounce (46 votes ) [: 5.08%] : The stability could eventually lead to a recovery (6 votes ) [: 2.54%] : This is THE LOW in the cycle (3 votes ) [: 3.39%] : No comment (4 votes ) Availability of finance that I am seeing : [: 5.08%] : It is virtually impossible to borrow to buy a home where I am (6 votes ) [20.34%] : Loans can be obtained by those who have a 40-50% deposit, and sufficient income (24 votes ) [35.59%] : Mortgage loans of 70-75% LTV are available (42 votes ) [: 6.78%] : 80-85% loans are available (tell us more) (8 votes ) [: 4.24%] : Loans of 90-100% can be obtained (5 votes ) [27.97%] : No comments (33 votes ) /see: http://www.housepric...ic=109612&st=30

UK Property Databank - & GEI podcast (from April 4th, 2009) Cycles and Builder share prices help to call Turns : Link to here ================================================ : 4 April 2009 Podcast : Charts-thread#6389 The 4.Apr.2009 podcast called for a 12 months "bounce" in property prices - & we saw that! READ THE CHARTS HERE ! (And examine the actual DATA below) They whisper their messages to those who can decipher them, as we have done on GEI. Updated : ------------- H&N Index (average of Halifax & Nationwide) .................. : .... Ratio: Rightmove's Gr.London-to: Rest-of-UK : / Rightmove's Greater London Offer prices----------------- : : : : Knight-Frank's Prime Central London vs. R's Gr.London : The Rest of the UK (H&N Index, with Gr.London prices extracted)* : *(I assume that Greater London has 12% of UK's homes- see post #108) BARRATT bellwether: Barratt Dev'l / BDEV : Weekly chart : Monthly chart : Daily chart : http://tinyurl.com/BDEV-610d "A jump to through to a new high, could clear the way for 400p - 500p" -July 2013 ... update : BDEV-thread : BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. (A detailed REVIEW of my historical market predictions, using BDEV, follows in Post #2 below, and also on the BDEV thread.) ========================================= GPC - DATA bank: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009: Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009: J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 145,372 -1.22% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 145,334 - 0.03% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% :L M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 145,628 + 0.20% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 147,579 +1.34% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 151,917 +2.94% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 150,994 - 0.61% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 152,818 +1.21%/ 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 152,542 - 0.18% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 155,538 +1.96% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,214 +0.43% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+0.24% :140.6% :H N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 154,303 - 1.22% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 153,999 - 0.20% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 153,844 - 0.10% / 163,481 169,777 168,390 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% :sa F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 153,896 +0.03% / 161,320 166,857 166,928 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 151,803 - 1.36% / 164,519 168,521 168,435 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 160,233 +5.55% / 167,802 168,202 168,593 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 160,582 +0.22% / 169,162 167,570 167,207 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 159,587 - 0.62% / 170,111 166,203 165,686 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 159,348 - 0.15% / 169,347 167,425 167,497 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,607 - 0.46% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,360 - 0.79% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1% O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 158,788 +0.91% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% :H N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 153,519 - 3.32% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,622 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% : D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 150,592 - 1.91% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,803 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% : 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 150,732 +0.09% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 151,888 +0.77% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,331 +0.95% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 155,218 +1.23% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 156,544 +0.85% / 167,208 = n/a = 161,039 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :H J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 157,449 +0.58% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% : Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 156,499 +0.60% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% : A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 153,946 - 1.63% / 165,914 = n/a = 161,743 162,076 : £163,995 : - 1.64% :141.2% : S : : 233.139 : 427,889 : 155,117 +0.76% / 166,256 = n/a = 161,132 162,375 : £164,316 : + 0.20% :141.9% : O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 155,900 +0.50% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% : N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 150,627 - 3.38% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 147,373 - 2.16% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 : +0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 : +1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% : A : : 236,260 : 454,875 : 150,173 : - 0.96% / 164,729 = n/a = 160,256 160,200 : £162,465 : - 0.64% : 145.4% : S : : 234,858 : 456,237 : 149,719 : - 0.30% / 163,964 = n/a = 159,486 160,437 : £162,201 : - 0.16% : 144.8% : O : : 243,168 : 478,071 : 151,123 : +0.94% / 164,153 = n/a = 158,426 159,818 : £161,986 : - 0.13% : 150.1% : N : : 236,761 : 483,709 : 147,163 : - 2.62% / 163,853 = n/a = 160,879 161,016 : £162,435 : +0.28% : 145.8% : D : : 228,989 : 464,398 : 144,953 : = N/A = / 162,262 = n/a = 163,845 161,903 : £162,083 : - 0.22% : 141.3% : Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2013 J. : : 229,429 : 480,890 : 144,748 : = N/A = / 162,245 = n/a = 162,844 160,613 : £161,429 : - 0.40% : 142.1% : F. : : 235,741 : 486,298 : 146,748 : = N/A = / 162,638 = n/a = 163,600 162,011 : £162,325 : +0.56% : 145.3% : M : : 239,710 : 496,298 : 148,259 : = N/A = / 164,630 = n/a = 163,943 163,930 : £164,280 : +1.20% : 145.9% : A : : 244,706 : 493,635 : 151,518 : = N/A = / 165,586 = n/a = 166,175 167,026 : £166,745 : +1.50% : 146.8% : M : : 249,841 : 509,870 : 153,391 : = N/A = / 167,912 = n/a = 166,898 167,831 : £167,898 : +0.68% : 148.8% : J. : : 252,798 : 515,243 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 168,941 = n/a = 167.984 170,184 : £169,563 : +0.99% : 149.1% : ========================================== mom:+1.18% : +1.05% :: Est. DI : : 149.1% / +0.61% = n/a = : +0.44% : +0.48% : +0.99% : *Actual figure Hometrack index; others are calculated from mom changes. Criteria for indices : http://www.housepric...e-price-indices Comparison of Criteria : http://firstrung.co....asp?pagekey=115 Other : http://www.acadametr...HousePrices.php === Tags: Halifax, Nationwide Index, SA Seasonally Adjusted, NSA, Bull Trap, UKtrap Links: Halifax : Nationwide :Rightmove : Hometrack : Home.co.uk : KnFr-PrimeC Mortgage Approvals = : - 2006 - / - 2007 - / - 2008- / - 2009- / - 2010- / - 2011- / - 2012- / J. : 121,000 : 121,000 : 73,000 : 31,000 : 48,198 : 45,723 : 58,728 F : 115,000 : 120,000 : 72,000 : 37,937 : 47,094 : 46,967 : 48,986 M : 117,000 : 114,000 : 64,000 : 39,230 : 48,901 : 47,557 : 49,860 A : 108,000 : 109,000 : 58,000 : 43,201 : 49,871 : 45,166 : 51,823 M : 115,000 : 113,000 : 42,000 : 43,414 : 49,815 : 45,940 : 51,089 J. : 119,000 : 113,000 : 36,000 : 47,584 : 47,643 : 48,421 : 44,192 Jl : 117,000 : 112,000 : 33,000 : 50,123 : 48,722 : 49,239 : 47,312 A : 118,000 : 106,000 : 32,000 : 52,317 : 47,372 : 52,410 : 47,665 S : 124,000 : 100,000 : 33,000 : 56,215 : 47,474 : 50,967 : 50,024 O : 129,000 : 089,000 : 32,000 : 57,345 : 47,185 : 52,743 N : 131,000 : 083,000 : 27,000 : 60,518 : 48,019 : 52,854 D : 115,000 : 072,000 : 31,000 : 59,023 : 42,563 : 52,939 /source: http://www.housepric...e-approvals.php === === === === === Global Edge Radio website : http://globaledge.podbean.com/ Old GE-conf. call #3 thread : http://www.greenener...?showtopic=6389 Property's Long Cycles Peaks US Peaks : 1871, (+16): 1887, (+18): 1905, (+20): 1946 / LargerChart : UK Peaks : 1948, (+25): 1973, (+16): 1989, (+18): 2007 FORECASTS for the US Property Cycle. I predicted a 2006 peak years before it arrived - and then less than 2 years after the peak, I produced THIS chart: Centex Chart (CTX) - a US Stock (2006 peak predicted 5-6 years ago) ... an update Centex / CTX merged with Pulte / PHM - and so I am watching PHM now as my US bellwether stock. How did that forecast of a 2012 Low work out? Weekly PHM .. PHM-2004-to-2012 Other Builders : HOV : TOL : XHB : HGX : ITB // Rates : TLT : TNX The Low in PHM came in about one year early. CHART SOURCES: ============= Spline's website :: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/ Ziknik's charts - :: http://BustBubbles.com Chart of Indices :: http://www.telegraph...-in-charts.html Tracking UK Incomes :: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-incomes UK Household sizes-- :: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-hhsize Links to here: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data : http://tinyurl.com/HPC-data

"No exceptions?" What is the UK? How long has Sterling been around? That's long enough for most of us, isn't it?

I think my guesses are better than random. But I certainly dont get 100%. There is some value in hard work in researching markets IMHO