drbubb

You really only have two decent points there, not the minimum of three I am continuing to lighten up on Mining shares, expecting Gold to slide in the Deflationary Downswing Do be careful !

Low rates, denial (that things are as bad as they are), and hope that the "old normal" can be restored

THEY ARE RIGHT about one thing... In the future we are likely to be poorer than we thought • We have re-evaluated our assumptions about future spending in light of Ministerial statements – But current plans predominantly rely on cuts to capital spending • Borrowing remains high – Still above £120 bn (7.5% of GDP) in 2013-14 • These spending cuts alone are not enough – A mix of further spending cuts, tax increases and extended working lives would probably be the best solution == == BOTTOM LINE: The Ministers have been lying - Expect more Tax rises !

Gold commercial shorts - according to Bob Chapman, on GoldSeekRadio.com 284,000 contract net short - "the greatest of all time" 50.9% held by four big banks "who are acting for the government" + JP Morgan Chase + Goldman Sachs + Citigroup + Deutsche Bank Chapman thinks " the gold short signal will fail this time", and Gold will go roaring upwards. He said. he expect a drop in the Giold price last week, since the big banks would force it later, so the gold calls they had sold would expire worthless, and he expects it to rise next week. (I disagree, and think the signal is working well once again) Here's GLD/Gold versus the "Swing Indicator How much more capital can the Hedgies throw at the Gold market? They have lifted it a long way, but some point soon, they are going to want to lock in their profits. There's no reason for them to stay so massively long, if Gold is really making a triple top.

Fred Harrison on Housing from one year ago: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/09/ Any burning questions for Fred ?

DOLLAR TURN? Here's how the Dollar chart looked as of Friday ... update Notice the key resistance at 76.75 Today we see: 76.81

http://tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economic...d/tag/property/

http://tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economic...d/tag/property/

An excerpt from some notes for an interview. I am looking back at my days in the Commodity Derivatives business: "The bank did not want to leave things as they were. They decided that the business needed to be globalised. So I was made to report to someone in New York, who was head of global commodities. The same guy ran our gold business, so I had a few chances to talk with the bank's gold traders. I can recall at how they laughed at notions of a "gold conspiracy" which controlled the gold price. Instead, they explained how mining companies would aim to sell gold at high prices. So whenever the gold price rose to the high end of a trading range, they would enter gold loans, buy puts, and sell calls - all actions that would tend to reduce the gold price. The banks that had mining companies as clients would turn to the futures market to hedge their risks, so they would show up their as sellers, and so commercial shorts would rise. It wasnt the manipulation by the government that was putting a cap on the gold price, it was the natural working of the hedging market. Of course, the banks that were dealing with the miners would see the orders piling up on their books, so they would be shorting gold too, for their own proprietary trading accounts. But there were strict limits on the maximum size of bank speculative shorts. The major factor was the behavior of the mining companies."

Hi, Man. Are you "free" yet? Where are you living? Do you want to say anything about applying the Dalai Lama' s Rules for Living?

At the moment, I still think a Pds.100k price is possible. The deflation back down should start again before the end of the year, if not much sooner. Only if the government finds a way- and implements it - to get money back into people's hands, is there a chance that the eventual downturn can be forestalled

He's got his head screwed on backwards! The commerc ials accomodated huge buying by the Hedgies, How soon will they run out of capital to chase these speculative Gold positions? They are hot money people, after all... Powered by strong buying from Spec Longs. Their net Gold futures position increased $5.6 billion (+28%) in a single week!

HEDGIE-related THRUST 9.0804 8.04 94.68 : 105.48 129,799 370,114 71.3% 240,315 / 21.2 223,607 43.1% 204,175 444.5 126.71 9.0811 8.11 93.00 : 103.03 125,252 357,712 70.9% 232,460 / 20.1 216,015 42.8% 197,740 430.2 123.88 9.0818 8.18 92.06 : : 98.82 128,075 338,839 68.7% 210,764 / 18.9 205,835 41.7% 171,457 382.2 111.43 9.0825 8.25 92.76 : 100.88 128,731 348,913 69.6% 220,182 / 19.4 209,086 41.7% 179,610 399.8 115.58 9.0901 9.01 93.90 : 100.xx 128,383 354,714 70.1% 226,329 / 19.9 211,406 41.8% 190,951 9.0908 9.08 97.43 : 100.xx 136,955 427.167 70.9% 290,211 / 25.5 262,004 43.8% 241,986 Week= Mday $-GLD swing CmLong -CmShort - Pct. - = CmNetS / L$bn NC.Long / Pct - NC.Net Choke adjCh Powered by strong buying from Spec Longs. Their net Gold futures position increased $5.6 billion (+28%) in a single week!

A Top could be in Next stop could be GLD/$88-90 Junior stocks still holding, if they start crumbling, a drop in Gold becomes more probable IMHO

This was what I was talking about, when I mentioned a possible TRAP earlier. The most bullish thing is the huge drop in the Dollar. But you have to wonder, why has Gold done better? The rally may, just may, be dead for awhile now. The new-and-improve GOLDSTOCK website: http://www.goldstock.co.uk/ ...deserves a look. and Dont forget to scroll down, and see the many charts there

Sold some GLD $100 calls. Thanks Frankly, this is a very poor performance for Gold in light of the collapse in the Dollar. This was effectively a mass "Fergedaboutit! from the Bears to $1000 Gold." Gold may be really fried in the days to come.

I sold about 1/3 of my position

This could be a trap. The market will be headed towards a NY opening, with a big gap up in Gold, and gap down in the US dollar. We should look back the previous top in Gold to see what happened. If you were the US Treasury, and wanted to BURN THE DOLLAR SHORTS, what woudl you do?

"If you're on the Buy here, you're buying from me" -says the maker of this Video on Gold: http://www.gracelandupdates.com/video/ucrisis3/ucrisis3.html Personally, I'm not selling here. I am still long. But I am watching very carefully this week == == A WAY to get long the Dollar (with some gearing) ... UUP-update ...if you were to choose to do so (in the next few days)

...from the "gold may be done here" thread... I think it should be proven wrong first ... update "Early/Mid May, is also a fine time for a top", I said in post #1 GLD was then about $93.5/94, and Gold rolled a bit higher to make a top at the end of May / early June. We are back to very near those topping levels, and a possible "double top" with the February high. (not much volume in GBS, the London-traded etf for Gold) If gold blasts through $1,000 this week and stays there, the thread will go quiet, I reckon. If it falls from here, or pops to $1,050 (+/-) and dives, I think it will get more active

MALINVESTMENT fueled the boom, and "Back to Reality" is fueling the bust They can "thank" Greenspan and the Fed for the boom, But do they understand who to blame?

Good analogy - I would agree with that! - said Traktion, in agreement

Tung Chung and Tai Kok Tsui (HONG KONG) - Both Good for traders Lantau has alot going for it, but I like living in Kowloon too. We still own the larger 3BR flat in Lantau, it is rented out now. But we have been selling some of the others with the objective of reducing total debt to zero. Once we sell another 1-2 flats we should get there. The main advantage of the Kowloon location is the 30-40 minutes saved each time we travel to HK Island. Actually, even though Kowloon is called "the dark side" by some who live on HK Island, it is actually easier to get to Central from here than most places people live on HK side. Sure, there's less to do here within walking distance, but with the money one saves by living here, the commuting cost by MTR and even by taxicab is insignificant. As more expats come to realise that, I think this area will become more and more popular. As it is, I see more non-Chinese faces here all the time. The next good thing would be some nightlife, and a some good Western restaurants in Tai Kok Tsui. And maybe some more schools, for those who have kids of that age. Some day, I will get round to taking some photos of the facilities in this building (Long Beach). They are really superb. The clubhouse was voted one of the Top 5 in all of Hong Kong, and indeed that is one important reason that I live here. Another is that rents fell by the time this flat was ready for move-in, and I did not want to "give it away" cheaply. when it offered so many advantages. So I ahd to convince my partner to downsize seriously from 1200 sf to 750 sf, so that we could squeeze in here. The great clubhouse facilities mad that downsizing much less painful. We both like it now, and she would like us to buy a larger flat here someday. (Photo taken from our high floor flat in Tung Chung) Caribbean Coast has a nice clubhouse and environment too, and some good shopping at City Gate. For those who flight out of the airport often, and do not need to be in Central everyday, CC provides unbeatable value-for-money. You can still rent a 1,200sf 3BR flat there for about HK$13,000 (that's about Pds 1,000 per month.) I think that is streets better value than you can get in London, and it comes with far lower taxes. Maybe one day the Day Traders will discover it, and they will be moving there from all over the world. For those who want to live here permanently, there's a Investor's Scheme, where if you invest a minimum of HK$6.8 Million in property or HK financial assets, you can gain the right of permanent abode. I plan to apply for this soon, since as it is, I must leave HK within 90 days, to restart the clock. And I do not have the right to work here, and "take a job away from a HK citizen." For Gold traders, here's a little item that appeared in today's paper: Precious metal depository opens The precious metal depository at Hong Kong International Airport opened today and was appointed by the Mercantile Exchange as a gold storage and physical settlement venue for its members and market participants. Unveiled by Financial Secretary John Tsang at a ceremony today, the 340-square-metre depository will enhance Hong Kong's position as a trading and logistics hub for precious metals by providing secure storage and physical settlement services to central banks, commodity exchanges, bullion banks, precious metal refineries and issuers of exchange traded funds. Mr Tsang said: "The depository will help tap into opportunities from the growing demand for gold and other commodities in the region." He added this ties in with the Government's policy to enhance Hong Kong's position as an international financial and logistics centre. /more: http://www.news.gov.hk/en/category/busines...e8714991e12.htm

(please while reading this post) "Spending every dime, for a good time..." (were the bulls. haha) Barratt was down 6.7% yesterday on moderately high volume: BDEV: 229.40 Change: -16.40 Open: 247.00 High: 247.00 Low: 228.20 // Volume: 3,045,838 Percent Change: -6.67% Now we just need a further slide on rising volume : update ...to confirm Barratt's high is in (looks like August, as we expected) ...Meantime, here's what happened in the US on the first day of the new month: WHO SAYS "THEY DONT RING A BELL" AT THE TOP ?? They rang the bell yesterday, on the 1st of Sept., the Bear's Month. : update Look at that rise in volume, as the market came off the highs (at long last) We also had a nice looking "Top Hat"* two days earlier. *(A Top Hat occurs when you get a fresh high on light volume, sandwiched between two days of lighter volume. Fred Astaire would be pleased, Putting on the Ritz.)