drbubb

This is what a bottom should look like: The above is the Oil Holders etf (OIH) - includes shares of Oil Service companies. It often leads Oil (USO), which has sometimes led Gold (GLD) also. It made a low yesterday on light volume, and then rose on heavier volume. That's a very positive sign, and now it looks set to break above that downtrend line. If OIH opens higher on big volume, a bottom may be in place, and I think it is then likely that a Gold bottom will come within a few days also. Other charts: OIH vs. USO & GLD: st-10 days : lt-6 months

This is what a bottom should look like: The above is the Oil Holders etf (OIH) - includes shares of Oil Service companies. It often leads Oil (USO), which has sometimes led Gold (GLD) also. It made a low yesterday on light volume, and then rose on heavier volume. That's a very positive sign, and now it looks set to break above that downtrend line. If OIH opens higher on big volume, a bottom may be in place, and I think it is then likely that a Gold bottom will come within a few days also.

Oh yes. I agree. You must watch Gold's trading outside NY. But NY rules the charts

TAKE A LOOK at the Long Term chart: The Bull market is still intact. Something like $800 is key support on the Monthly chart, then $650 maybe I dont believe the dollar can go much higher. This ws driven by a concerted effort of CB's in a summer market, and they may have spent their force by now, and will need to be careful from here. A big bounceback in Gold would mark a very important low for Gold, and give the Dollar bears a great chance to regroup. In hindsight, the $850 had too many stops, and was too tempting a target for Gold Bears to miss, so they ran the stops there, and triggered a $30 selloff. Today's sentiment feels more like a low than the complacency many had on Friday (self included.) Another few days, could establish a nice low, filling that gap at GLD-$79/80

Very good write-up TAKE A LOOK at the Long Term chart: The Bull market is still intact. Something like $800 is key support on the Monthly chart, then $650 maybe I dont believe the dollar can go much higher. This ws driven by a concerted effort of CB's in a summer market, and they may have spent their force by now, and will need to be careful from here. A big bounceback in Gold would mark a very important low for Gold, and give the Dollar bears a great chance to regroup. In hindsight, the $850 had too many stops, and was too tempting a target for Gold Bears to miss, so they ran the stops there, and triggered a $30 selloff. Today's sentiment feels more like a low than the complacency many had on Friday (self included.) Another few days, could establish a nice low, filling that gap at GLD-$79/80

Here it is- approx. GLD$79-80 just prior to Christmas

Here it is- approx. GLD$79-80 just prior to Christmas

Gold longs are selling, because their stops got hit. Triggered by fears that oil will fall lower, and maybe Central bank selling I am kicking myself: I predicted the drop in Oil, but somehow thought Gold might be immune, Silly thinking, it turns out

Right. Have a look at : Oil (USO) vs. Gold (GLD) Gold's huge stop position has allowed them to force it lower than Oil USO Support: Oil-$110 x 0.80 = USO-$88 But the charts show lower support, namely about USO-$82. And that's equivalent to WTI-$102.50 per barrel

I think there's a thread somewhere. Think of a gap as a vaccuum. But do not rely on this. It is only a very strong tendency I think it may happen within a few days or weeks, but if this market keeps falling on this sort of volume, and does V back up, gold bugs are in trouble Re: GAPS I think there is one from Dec. at something like GLD-80, perhaps this move will fill that, and then find buying My Olympic trade is clearly out of the medals now, but lots can change between now and Month end

Isnt it obvious? Oil was down, so they "ran the stops"

I think there's a thread somewhere. Think of a gap as a vaccuum. But do not rely on this. It is only a very strong tendency I think it may happen within a few days or weeks, but if this market keeps falling on this sort of volume, and does V back up, gold bugs are in trouble Re: GAPS I think there is one from Dec. at something like GLD-80, perhaps this move will fill that, and then find buying My Olympic trade is clearly out of the medals now, but lots can change between now and Month end

Remember, it has been true for a long time, and it is still true, I think: Most believe ONLY NEW YORK TRADING is really meaningful on the charts. There's a gap overhead, so at minimum, a move up to fill it seems likely- probably soon ...added... This is getting Ugly as various stops get hit: GLD SPDR GOLD TRGOLD SHS Last [Tick] 81.7500[ + ] Change -2.6800 % Change -3.17% GDX Last [Tick] 34.2600[ + ] Change -2.0400 % Change -5.62% Big Volume coming in. Prepare yourselves for $820, maybe 800

Sure. I am mentally ready for lower prices. That is exactly why I buy Calls, rather than trade forwards, or physical metal. I did say no guarantees, and many people have pointed out the dangers of trading on margin. I think we should be watching crude oil now. Next big support is $110. Crude weakness seems to be the main prop for Gold

Good explanation ! Rising foof and energy, are going to suck money away from other consumer discretionary spending, including things like: Renta and property speculation Dont forget, in times when yields are below mortgage rates, a BTL speculator has to subsidise every property invetsment that he makes. This isn't easy to contemplate, when more and more of his cash flow get shifted into food and energy, No wonder we are seeing a rapid death of amateur BTL, where property is bought at a Pseculative premium.

thanx for those charts, Id5. they back uo my earlier point that August (usually late August) is normally a good window for buying Gold. That drop in the oil price, with an brief upwards spike in the dollar, may have brought forward the buying moment to earlier in August. CC thinks that $850 will be retested within a few days. That is certainly possible. If it comes, lets see how much volume is in the retest.

Dont Forget - the SEASONAL CYCLE in the Dollar After a mid-August peak, a multi-month slide often begins. That's the usual pattern And here's Gold, show its usual late August/ September starting point in a big rally == == "danger"? - explanation was added to the previous post

Dont Forget - the SEASONAL CYCLE in the Dollar After a mid-August peak, a multi-month slide often begins. That's the usual pattern /MORE: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3996

Some real danger here, as this chart shows: source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/aug082008.html Still, I was buying GLD calls

60 - 70 ounces (depending on the last order - did it fill?) == == Some real danger here, as this chart shows: source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/aug082008.html == == "danger"? - explanation added, in edit: The lower Bolly, can be forced easily now by a falling Gold price, since the MA has rolled over - that's what I meant. Here's what Roger Weigand had to say: Late Summer Buying Cycle Arrives Near August 15-18, 2008 Watch for new rallies in most all commodities markets in late August after an interim shorter term rally and profit-taking event. Channelized mini-rallies in gold and silver are completed. Now its time to buy. Our late summer forecast is a mild haircut in most stock shares including precious metals. The only action to prevent selling is our stunningly time-worthy Plunge Protection Team ... Whatever you do, make a concerted effort to stay with the trend and hang onto your core holdings of preferred shares, cash, and coins. Physical gold should never be sold or, traded but rather accumulated steadily on a monthly savings plan and squirreled away. Big traders are always ready to buy on the dips and normally never sell their gold and silver. You would be amazed how quickly your physical gold and silver will accumulate using this strategy. - Traderrog

'A seasonal low is likely in the coming days, and the length of the consolidation since March should see a very sharp rally in gold's favored Autumn months.' — Mark O'Byrne, Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. /see: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold...D&dist=news Mystery Solved: "...rather than continue lower and fall off the edge of the cliff, the Dollar Index suddenly and mysteriously reversed course. It has now risen on 12 of the 17 trading days since reaching that low, and closed today at 74.55, a 5-month high. What caused this index to suddenly pull back from the brink and then reverse course to shoot higher over the past three weeks?" /see: http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary-print.html Why the dollar rally? Perhaps the Chinese agreed to withstrain themselves from selling dollars until the Olympics started, and the manipulators realised they had their chance to push the dollar up I bought over $500,000 worth of Gold yesterday (thru calls on GLD). That's my most ever, at least in one day.

I could see several turns from today's extremes: Gold, Euro, other currencies, ... So with GLD touching my $84 target (Gold-$850) I am buying GLD calls in a size that I have never done before. I wanted some gold exposure, and this looks a good time to get it. I am buy in-the-money GLD calls of various maturities

Sure, how's this : =============== $1,032 TOP x SQRT (Fibo.6812): x 0.8257 (that's a meaningful number, SQRT of 68.18% TARGET ======== $ 852 RETRACEMENT LOW Howzat ??

Temporary (?) bid drop in the Euro (FXE) ... update It has also come to the 252d.MA

Oil sinks more than $4 as dollar rallies Crude prices return to three-month lows on a slumping global economy and after disrupted supply from a pipeline attack in Turkey is rerouted. August 8, 2008: 10:17 AM EDT Oil drops below $120 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices tumbled Friday as the dollar rallied strongly against slumping foreign currencies and concerns about a Turkish supply disruption were eased. Light, sweet crude for September delivery lost $4.03 to $115.99 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude reversed course after settling higher Thursday, following decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to hold key interest rates steady. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the decision to keep rates at 4.25% came as inflation remains a concern, though the European economic growth outlook was gloomy. "Looking ahead, based on the current prices for futures commodities, the ... annual inflation rate is likely to remain well above a level consistent" with the bank's goal "for quite some time," Trichet said. That sent the dollar soaring against the euro, pound and yen, and oil prices sank. Like all dollar-traded commodities, oil prices tend to fall when the U.S. currency rises. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign investors. "So much of the buying we saw since last August when oil was trading at $68 a barrel was predicated on a weak dollar," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover Oil. "As the dollar is gaining now, we're seeing an unwinding of those positions in oil." /more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/08/markets/oi...sion=2008080810