drbubb

Mystery solved ! Don't forget, the Chinese have about $1 Trillion in dollar holdings that they will want to get into something less exposed to dollar weakness. And I think it is clear from actions being taken by the Chinese that a good chunk of that (10%? 20%? More?) is going to find its way into resource stocks, either directly, through takeovers, or indirectly, through reinvestment of takeover proceeds. Here's another factor: "Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, revealed Wednesday the drafts of three bills that would sharply curtail the activities of financial investors in the commodities markets. The most extreme proposal would prohibit private and public pension funds with more than $500 million in assets from investing in agricultural and energy commodities traded on a U.S. futures exchange, foreign exchange or over-the-counter, according to materials provided by Lieberman's office. A second proposed bill would direct the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to establish total limits on the share of the commodity market held by financial investors. A third proposal would direct the futures regulator to impose speculative position limits on any stakes not related to real hedging activities, an action that could limit the commodities swaps activities of big investment banks such as Goldman Sachs." Offshore investors outside the US will keep investing in commodities, but onshore investors will have to buy commodity related shares as their hedge. So this return-to-old-fashioned could be good for juniors too.

Just look at this chart, which looks set for parabolic move up: There is a school of thought (T.Landry) that says that the next Bull move should be the same duration as the corection. So that might be about 10 months up. And if the move is the same magnitude, it would take CDNX to $4,000 Or it may double that move, and go to: $6,500. I have given many. Like $10 Calls on GROW which I suggested buying at $3, and I sold some yesterday at $8.60. That's almost a triple in less than two months. Why mess about with AIM listed stocks, where the market makers rob you, and there is little liquidity. Go to North America where the big boys trade

"Gold stocks are not gold." - Cgnao Yes, but Major Gold stocks (as in the HUI) have come very close to tracking Gold. And Juniors (CDNX in blue) may still have their day ... update : 1 year

"Gold stocks are not gold." - Cgnao Yes, but Major Gold stocks (as in the HUI) have come very close to tracking Gold. And Juniors (CDNX in blue) may still have their day ... update : 1 year

KE Report - Al talks "gold" with Casey Research's Ed Steer. http://www.kereport.com/DailyRadio/Daily061208.mp3 "The next move in gold ... will take your breath away."

(for those with any doubts left that things are headed "into the toilet"): Barratt shares 95pc down in housing gloom Fears of a collapse in the housing market stripped millions off the share values of leading builders yesterday. Halifax Bank of Scotland, the UK's biggest mortgage lender, was also badly hit. The sharpest fall - 42 per cent at one stage - came in shares of Barratt Developments. Homes It was the third day of losses and meant Barratt's shares had shed a staggering 95 per cent of their value since the peak early last year. In a torrid day's trading, there were also falls for Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Bellway. Barratt is one of Britain's best-known homebuilders, having built and sold over 300,000 homes. It was founded in Newcastle in 1958 by entrepreneur Sir Lawrie Barratt and operates from some 30 sites. But its finances have been stretched since it snapped up rival Wilson Bowden for £2.2billion in February last year - at the top of the market. This gave the combined group a market value of £4.3billion. . . . The falls in housing-related shares have now put at risk HBOS's own plan to raise a £4billion emergency fund. Nearly 12 per cent was wiped off the lender's market value yesterday, leaving shares trading well below the 275p level at which investors are being asked to buy new stock. The housebuilding sector is under pressure from a shortage of buyers, both because mortgages are more expensive and harder to obtain and on fears of a house price crash. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said this week that estate agents sold fewer homes in the first quarter of this month than at any time since it began collecting data in 1978. Figures for May from the Halifax and Nationwide also showed the steepest fall in house prices since the recession of the early 1990s. Last night the leading City investment bank Merrill Lynch said the faltering housing market is in real danger of mirroring the 1990s recession that saw prices plummet and left thousands of families in negative equity. Analyst Mark Hake said: 'We have gone beyond the tipping point and are clearly seeing a UK housing market being squeezed on opposing fronts - by a lack both of willing lenders and willing purchasers'. He said the severity of the housing slowdown would be determined by unemployment trends. The gloomy warning came as official figures showed the fourth consecutive monthly rise in unemployment claimants. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10...sing-gloom.html

Gold Calls - on the etf Anyone else trading calls on GLD, the Gold etf? I'm looking at GLDGC Description CALL (GLD) SPDR GOLD TR GOLD JUL 81 Price: about $5.00

$400 oil and $8,500 gold - in such an environment the Dollar will have little value, and America's suburban living arrangement will truly be on the rocks When I have some more time (next week) I will produce some charts to support it

Barratt has a new symbol : BDED

That's big news! If they persist, they can easily be thrown into bank ruptcy. Couldnt happen to a nicer bunch!

Ben Bernanke has succeeded in talking the dollar up towards the top of the range Give it a few more days. and you may have a great dollar-shorting opportunity. And if the dollar starts dropping again, Gold should go up too.

JH Kunstler as a painter .... I found this interview with social commentator, JHK, to be interesting. I like his art, but not as much as his social commentary- which can be highly ironic. It is interesting to see that he avoids irony in his art. KunstlerCast#11: Picturing Suburbia http://media.libsyn.com/media/kunstlercast...tlerCast_11.mp3 When James Howard Kunstler isn't railing against suburban sprawl, he's painting it. Vincent van Gogh painted the peasant sleeping by the haystack because he was living in a landscape populated by people. Our landscape is populated by cars. So, as a sur la motif painter of our time, Jim's subjects include cars on the road, gas stations and the industrial ruins of America's manufacturing past. Making this landscape legible on the canvas is a challenge, but it's also dangerous! An angry manager once told Jim that painting the Burger King is not allowed.

Billionaire investor George Soros is to tell US lawmakers on Tuesday that “a bubble in the making” is under way in oil and other commodities and that commodity indices are not a legitimate asset class for institutional investors. He is expected to tell a congressional committee that rising oil prices are the result of a number of fundamental changes and factors in the market, but that the relatively recent ability of investment institutions to invest in the futures market through index funds is exaggerating price rises and creating an oil market bubble. I find commodity index buying eerily reminiscent of a similar craze for portfolio insurance which led to the stock market crash of 1987,” Mr Soros will tell the Senate commerce committee, according to a draft text seen by the Financial Times. “In both cases, the institutions are piling in on one side of the market and they have sufficient weight to unbalance it. If the trend were reversed and the institutions as a group headed for the exit as they did in 1987 there would be a crash.” MORE

A brief lift in the dollar, brief fall in Gold Look at GDX, as it has recovered the drop

Thanks for those comments, Wren. Very helpful indeed! You make better use of ";", than my "," Where we once had the Royal "we", we now have a "Gordonian Not"- where things are not getting done sensibly, thanks to the man at the top.

PROOF-READER WANTED ! ================== If anyone has some spare time, can you help out ?? I have just finished the final draft for might next article for Financial Sense. I will call it: FIGHTING THE FEAR : Preventing a meltdown in OTC Derivatives The Problem may be smaller than you think, but that may not Matter. Link: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3101 (It is quite long, all contained in post #1) I plan to post it on FS tomorrow. I decided to sleep on it overnight, and seee how it read in the morning. If anyone has some spare time, could you proof-read it, and see if you can spot any typos. Comments on the article are welcome to. You will see that there is a special thread for comments

Nice to have you back, Marceau. Id wondered where you were

Looks like a giant A-B-C is nearly complete. A big jump in Gold coming ??

WORTH magazine's section on Art investing: http://www.worth.com/Editorial/Passion-Inv...s/Art/Index.asp

My Longer term target is ... $400 oil by 2012/3. Look at this chart, multiply by 10 $13 oil : $130 oil now $40 oil : $400 oil within 3-5 years, maybe much sooner (added to header) I heard a podcast with Harry Dent Jr. And he spoke about a "29-30 year cycle" and a possible oil peak in 2009-2010. No specific level was mentioned. other than "much higher."

At the time it was probably about 1,000p, so it is 80% of the way to zero already

"James Turk has also been talking about the dollar collapse being imminent.' He could be right. With gold tailing off a bit, and the dollar having a few days of rally, I do think there's a decent chance that we are near to the END of the DOLLAR RALLY, not at the beginning

NEW JUNE THREAD: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3246 ...is now up and available

Gold Investment & Trading - #4 : June 2008, Will Gold find another bottom at $850 per ounce? A great chart to kick off the new month

Bill Gross wrote this. Wow ! : "We have for so long now been willing to be entertained rather than informed, that we more or less accept majority opinion, perpetually shaped by ratings obsessed media, at face value. After 12 months of an endless primary campaign barrage, for instance, most of us believe that a candidate’s preacher – Democrat or Republican – should be a significant factor in how we vote. We care more about who’s going to be eliminated from this week’s American Idol than the deteriorating quality of our healthcare system. Alternative energy discussion takes a bleacher’s seat to the latest foibles of Lindsay Lohan or Britney Spears and then we wonder why gas is four bucks a gallon. We care as much as we always have – we just care about the wrong things: entertainment, as opposed to informed choices; trivia vs. hardcore ideological debate." I have started a new thread on an adult subject, SERIOUSNESS Americans are going to get hammered constantly now, with a falling living standard. Until they wake up, and change their Living Arrangements.