drbubb

GOLD DOWN $17 !! Looks like another "Friday mugging" is being attempted. The volume is light, and it could be reversed quickly. If it is not, and gold is still down on Monday, this could provide the "lighter volume retest" (C-wave) that I have been talking about. That's not my base case, since I think this may just be part of a B-wave. But the price move and volume of the next several hours will be interesting

It is possible... I called the top at $2.10* some months ago, and the UK is now at the right point in the cycle to have its currency enter a sharop decline - its about a year behind the US Sterling (XBP) ... update Yes. It looks like it could be set to start a 3rd-of-3rd against the US dollar. And it has rallied back from below the 252d/1=year MA = = *$2.10: Easy-peasy, it was exactly 2x the all time low of $1.05

An interesting point. I suppose the newbies asked some decent questions too. There are others who visit GEI who do not read this thread. Maybe we should have a GOLD DEBATE thread, gto try to get more of the Bearish views??

MORE great links from The Netwriter...

Wave of Foreclosures Drives Prices Lower, Lures Buyers Oversupply Triggers Lenders' Fast Sales; Mr. English Bids By JAMES R. HAGERTY and KRIS HUDSON March 25, 2008; Page A1 A glut of foreclosed homes of historic proportions is starting to drive down U.S. home prices faster as lenders put more properties on the market and buyers show signs of interest. The ability of America's lenders to manage this fire sale will be crucial to determining how long the housing market stays in the dumps -- and how quickly blighted neighborhoods can heal. The oversupply is severe: In some major markets, including Las Vegas and San Diego, foreclosure-related sales have accounted for more than 40% of all sales in recent months. On Monday, new data suggested that pressures like these are starting to drive prices low enough to attract some buyers back into the market. Sales of previously occupied homes jumped 2.9% in February from the month before, the National Association of Realtors said, the first increase since July. The median price dropped 8.2% from a year earlier to $195,900, the biggest drop recorded by the Realtors in the current slump. . . . Lessons of S&L Crisis William Seidman, a TV commentator and former bank regulator, served as chairman of Resolution Trust Corp., an agency created by Congress to sell the assets of failed savings and loans in the aftermath of that late-1980s financial crisis. "Our view was that we should sell [real estate] as quickly as possible," he says. Mr. Seidman advises today's sellers to take a similar approach. In some cases, buyers are ready to act. Marc S. English, a beefy, 6-foot-4-inch Texan in ostrich-skin boots, walked into a private auction of 80 foreclosed homes at an Embassy Suites hotel near Dallas on March 9 and predicted that bargains would be scant due to the attendance of more than 1,000 rival bidders. "If you can't make 20%, 25% off these deals, you're wasting your time," said Mr. English, who occasionally buys and sells homes to supplement his regular work with a commercial builder. Yet Mr. English wound up buying two of the four homes he had scouted in advance. For instance, he agreed to pay mortgage investor Fannie Mae $37,000 for a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Fort Worth with a value of $69,600 in the county appraiser's records. After the auction, the lenders initially rejected his winning bids as too low. But a week later, they relented. The fastest way to move foreclosed homes might be to sell in bulk to big investors, although that kind of transaction is highly unusual in the real-estate business. Nevertheless, some hedge-fund operators, including New York-based Paulson & Co., are considering whether to seek deals like these. There are big obstacles, however. One problem: Hedge funds aren't equipped to manage small properties scattered over large areas. /more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1206405738...ews_us_business

Home prices: Down record 11% The residential real estate market continues to deteriorate in 2008, with 20 key markets reporting steep drops. Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer ... March 25, 2008 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Residential real estate posted another record decline in January 2008, according to a survey released Tuesday. The S&P Case/Shiller Home Price composite index of 20 key markets shows that home prices plunged 10.7% over the last 12 months, their lowest level since the index launched in 2000. Of those 20 metro areas, 16 reported record annual declines. Ten of those cities posted double digit declines through the 12 months that ended in January. The survey's 10-city composite index fell 11.4% year-over-year, its steepest decline since its inception in 1987. A national decline. While regional declines in home prices are not uncommon, the current decline is the "first national decline we've had," said Robert Shiller, Yale professor of economics and co-founder of the index. "In a historical context we're down substantially, down more than at any other time that we've been keeping track," he added. Las Vegas and Miami reported the weakest markets in January, with each city posting an annual decline of 19.3%. Phoenix was the second worst with a decline of 18.2%. Washington and Minneapolis also registered double digit declines in January. Only one city, Charlotte N.C., posted a modest price increase of 1.8%. "Unfortunately it does not look like early 2008 is marking any turnaround in the housing market, after the declining year recorded throughout 2007," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. Housing glut. Michael Strauss, chief economist at investment firm Commonfund, says that steep price declines are no surprise, given the number of homes on the market. "When inventory is so high we're likely to see a a decline in prices," he said. = = /more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/25/real_estat...oney_topstories

Gold has already bounced back to $933 ! Some professional must have been lining their own pockets, hitting stops in a thin market. Do be careful with those Asian Gold prices!

Brazilian Real Has Biggest Drop in Two Months Amid Tumble in Commodities Brazil's real fell the most in two months as commodity prices slid, sparking concern that the country's export receipts will drop. The real fell 1.9 percent to 1.7205 per dollar at 4:03 p.m. New York time from 1.6891 yesterday. The real has slumped 2.7 percent over the past five days. Commodity prices are down ``meaningfully,'' curbing demand for reais, said Rogerio Chequer, who manages $180 million of emerging-market stocks and bonds as principal at Atlas Capital Management in White Plains, New York. ``In the long term, it's still a very well supported currency.'' The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index fell 3.3 percent to 1,436.707, led by declines in silver, gold, sugar and crude oil. The index of 26 commodities has dropped in three of the past four sessions and is down 8.6 percent from a record on Feb. 29. Brazil is one of the world's biggest exporters of commodities such as soybeans, sugar, coffee, iron ore and orange juice. The real has gained 20.6 percent against the dollar over the past 12 months, buoyed in part by a rally in commodity prices. /see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Junior Gold miners: Some Good news - the takeovers have started! Australian-traded Lihir to buy Equigold... for $1 billion

Some Good news - the takeovers have started! Australian-traded Lihir to buy Equigold... for $1 billion

The only saving grace (for the time being): This is Asian trading - which sometimes trades beyond NY trading ranges. And "trading outside NY hours gives false signals- sometimes"

you are right. The really huge vollume was in early going (as stops got hit?) the big volume is worrying me. that's why I think it is an A wave, with a B up to come, followed by a C, which should be accompanied by lighter volume If volume contines strong, and it breaks $930, watch out!

NEARLY THERE ... "support near $930" : update

((Updated view)) Gold's drop may end near Gold-$930/940 ... GLD: $92/93 And HUI near $450. This could be just an A wave. So maybe back up to retrace 50-62% of the drop, and then a retest of these lows. A move like that might provide a nice "kiss it goodbye" to $930 or so

Here Jim Turk is speaking like the CHase credit man, he was once trained to be !

LOL. So that's what a "Dead Cat bounce" looks like !

We wont get a top, without a decent parabolic move, and that would mean a break well out of this channel (from the PRO traders thread) ...and a strong run in the Juniors too. IMHO

VERY NICE charts, Steve! Thnx for posting them = = Gold to see the uptick in RGLD yesterday on such a bad day for many gold shares

Dr.B says: well, i got that wrong! Mr.X says: bloody price fixers B: the strength in the dollar yesterday surprised me, but I suppos that the Fed must have lined up some dollar buying for after its rate cut X: that JPM deal for bear looks unlikely now B: Obvious in hindsight! There was even a nice gap in the Gold (GLD) chart that it went back to fill X: whats the next downside target B: GLD fell back to/near the 21day MA X: hang on, I have some charts... B: no.1: : shows the gap ... see more PRO Trader talk ...

0.75 cut lets see how wall street reacts

I bought a few SPX puts

i cannot imagine this

RELUNCTANT DOLLAR HOLDERS - there are some HUGE ones For those who say that "everyone is bearish on the dollar", what do yiou say about OPEC's huge net buying over so many months? China and Japan are also huge holders of dollars. If any of these decided to lighten up, it will overwhelm whatever Dollar bullishness is likely to come from other sectors. They are getting badly beat up on gthese holdings, and at some stage are likely to want to exchange these "old maid cards" (stale dollars) for something better

Very good move there, Mr. Jones

Lemain's Summary from "the other Gold thread" ============ Tuesday 18th March Today, writing from the UK, wearing fleece and long johns!Overview O:1002.60 H:1032.80 L:994.10 C:1003.70 Japanese equities bounced 1.2% [edit - had posted incorrect data earlier] and elsewhere there were gains - the Hang Seng was 1.4% up. The USD has made further losses overnight, oil has risen slightly. Pre-market indications are that the UK will open higher. Today, key economic data is due to be released. Sentiment remains dire. National (UK) newspapers are leading on the 'credit crunch' as the main issue though most papers seem to be highlighting the implications for home loans. Posters' comments on Monday...Posters were generally over-awed by events and most posts were about the wider economy rather than gold-specific though most posters concluded that the 'economic crisis' or 'credit crunch' is gold-positive. parkin405 reported that goldline are running out of choice of bullion - I had a similar experience and while I could buy easily there was not the choice, even for the small quantity I was buying.The only regular posters who are calling a pullback are Dummkopf ($800s) and Hectorp. A question was asked about the effect of any IMF gold sales but there was no concensus that this would preciptate a retracement.In summary - most posters remain very bullish on gold. My own comments...The technicals remain very bullish - both P&F and other major indicators. From a technical perspective I cannot see the basis for predicting a pullback. Fundamentals remain excellent, and again I cannot see any basis for a pullback. Gold as an investment is being discussed in the national newspapers and on TV and there is huge interest from the man in the street. This is likely to become a bandwaggon particularly as ordinary people question whether their savings are safe in their banks. The small 'pullback' yesterday was really little more than noise. Yesterday's difference between high (1032.80) and low (994.10) was a swing of 3.9% and was the most volatile day we have had in a long while. Spot has been passing through $1000 as if there was no barrier at that level. Fear, rather than greed, remains the driving force.We are still firmly on the uptrend and are moving up in strides - I think that the next stride will take us to $1250.There is an increasing risk of failure of major banks and financial institutions. It is becoming more vital than ever to ensure that you either have the asset in your hands (share certificates, certificates of ownership, etc.) or the asset itself (e.g. taking delivery of gold bullion).Today should be a good time to buy physical gold - I don't expect any significant downside from this point ($1002) though a brief pullback is not impossible albeit for a very brief time, making leveraged purchases risky. I am still expecting gold to break out sharply upwards towards $1250 at any time Have a wonderful day and the very best of luck with your investments!