drbubb

BUY SOME GOOD GOLD SHARES. I have been buying calls on: RGLD, GROW. Funds that look good: EDV.t, PNP.v... and maybe some in the UK

Not me. I am wanting and expecting my net worth to outpace the falls in the dollar. I have done so for years, but it hasnt been so easy in 2008, especially with the juniors weak. But I am hopeful that a big move UP in CDNX and juniors has started. A big move would be needed to "catch up" with Gold and major gold shares (HUI) The first important barrier, near CDNX-2600, is now under attack If that goes, then we may see a swift run to CDNX-2,800

Not me. I am wanting and expecting my net worth to outpace the falls in the dollar. I have done so for years, but it hasnt been so easy in 2008, especially with the juniors weak. But I am hopeful that a big move UP in CDNX and juniors has started. A big move would be needed to "catch up" with Gold and major gold shares (HUI) The first important barrier, near CDNX-2600, is now under attack If that goes, then we may see a swift run to CDNX-2,800

BAUM. She's a very clever lady. I'm mostly sure that many years ago, I used to work for her father. I was always hearing about his "clever daughter" in New york, and they wanted to introduce us. It never happened

Tim Ord likes Silver stocks and Gold stocks Tim Ord is a full-time at-home trader who has been in the markets for over 25 years. One of his claims to fame: in 1988, using his own account, he placed fourth nationally in the option division in "The United States Trading Championship." Tim's trading methods of looking at supply and demand in the markets was first outlined almost one hundred years ago in the work of Richard D. Wyckoff. Many know of his work in coming up with a new method of trading using the N.Y.S.E. tick index. Here we talk about how he combines stock price and volume to determine the price direction on a swing trading basis. Read more about Tim at: http://www.Ord-Oracle.com. /see: http://www.traderinterviews.com/programs/T...5-01_TimOrd.asx

Jim Rogers' predictions and musing on an assorted list of items. - "Gold is in a correction right now. I suspect it could go down to US$800, who knows, or US$750. I'm terrible at market timing, but if gold goes down some more, I plan to buy some more." - "I've started to think about buying base metals," Rogers said. "I'm not buying base metals yet but I've noticed some of them are down a lot and if they continue to consolidate, I will probably be buying base metals." - "Oil in my view will certainly have to go above US$150 or even US$200 during a bull market. This is not a short-term view. We've not had a major oil field discovery anywhere in the world over 40 years." - "Agriculture is going to be one of the most exciting growth industries in the world for the next 10-15 years. Conservative" agricultural banks such as Rabobank NV "will have their sun now." - "Rice prices have to go much higher before supply rises. Rice at times "in the dark recesses of history," adjusted for inflation, was much higher than now. Inventories are "very low" and "nobody's becoming a rice farmer these days. Young Chinese haven't gone into rice farming in the last 30 years. They've headed to Shanghai and gone down to the new stock exchange or commodities exchange and that's true in most parts of the world." - "I expect a nice rally in the American dollar because so many have been bearish on the American dollar including me." - "America is also a huge producer of agriculture and if I'm right about agriculture prices, which I think will go up a lot, that's going to help America compared to those countries which don't have agriculture."

(first the good news, the bad news): When Bad News Is Good News for Gold By MARK HULBERT I HAVE SOME GOOD NEWS for beleaguered gold investors: The editors of gold timing newsletters finally have thrown in the towel and given up hope that the bull market in gold will soon resume. If you have a hard time understanding why that is good news, you're not familiar with contrarian analysis. According to contrarians, the market rarely accommodates the majority, especially at major market turning points. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121001...xclusives_right = = = Bad News? What is actually happening

No better or no worse than your average junior play IMHO

I respect his honesty. The Piggies are still trying to hide their woes, I think. Once they fess up, and admit they got it very wrong, and aim to do better next time, I will be very sympathetic. Denial, and attempting to blame others does not encourage sympathy

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/may/1...es.creditcrunch QUOTE One of Britain's leading buying agents has startling advice for anyone wishing to purchase a home in today's sliding market: don't settle for a price reduction of 5 or 10 per cent when you could negotiate 20 to 30 per cent off. 'I've no hesitation in being hard-nosed. When the market's going up, estate agents push prices higher. Now it's falling, so buyers can get their own back,' says James Greenwood, managing director of Stacks Property Search & Acquisition. Greenwood says most homes recently put on the market carry realistic asking prices which can form a basis for negotiation. But a few, usually those lingering from last year, are overpriced. 'It's the sellers' fault; they're unrealistic or just don't need to sell.' So far in 2008, Greenwood has bought homes for clients at an average of 21.7 per cent below the asking price - even, in some cases, when values had already fallen from 2007. On one home he negotiated a whopping 37 per cent discount.

YES. And it bodes particularly well for holders of Firestone Diamonds (FDI.L) share- of which I am one. Weekly Chart ... update

Art in Hong Kong - Is it all about the money? - asks today's Post Magazine/SCMP (there's a nice picture of a framed HK$100 note on the cover) Show and Sell- by Kevin Kwong In the international art market, Hong Kong is a major player when it comes to deals- but can the city match the creativity of London and New York? + "Talk of Hk being an "art hub" is extremely premature + Other Asian cities are well ahead in their art festivals, especially in the autumn: . 3rd Guangzhou Triennial . 3rd Yokohama Triennial . 7th Kwangju Biennual . 6th Taipei Bienniel . 2nd Singapore Bienniel . 7th Shanghai Bienniel . 6th Pusan Bienniel = And now Hong Kong is having its first serious art fair + Hong Kong's claims are on the commercial side: the art auctions. (Sotheby's has had several. Christies will have its first later this month.) + There aren't (yet) enough HK based collectors, to make it a real competitor with London & NY + HK museums are government owned, and are not adventurous. THey dont buy art which makes a strong critical statement, against the government or culture. Privately-owned museums might be more open to such controversial art == == == HK SHOW HIGHLIGHTS // also see: whole article Highlights of the Fair include: an important 1955 Picasso, Nue Aux Bras Levés (Max Lang, New York); Wang Qingsong’s interpretation of the Olympic Games The Glory of Hope (Chinablue Gallery, Beijing); new work by India’s rising star Jitish Kallat (Albion Gallery, London); and images from the Lanwei series by Hong Kong born artist Stanley Wong (who represented Hong Kong in the 51st Venice Biennale) that look at the impact of the mad ‘gold rush’ era in the Far East and what it has left behind (10 Chancery Lane, Hong Kong). Special projects at the Fair will include an exhibition of Hong Kong artists curated by Sabrina Fung, who was also responsible for the 2005 Hong Kong Pavilion at the Venice Biennale. ‘It will be an exciting opportunity for an international audience to discover, for the first time, the innovative work of the new generation of Hong Kong artists’, says Ms Fung. The Fair has gained the endorsement of the city’s burgeoning cultural community: “What is exciting about ART HK 08 is that it brings to Hong Kong a large range of works that have never before been seen by the Hong Kong public. This is particularly important in a city with limited large scale public programs for contemporary art.” says Claire Hsu of the Asia Art Archive, who will run a programme of talks during the Fair.

Up and coming areas of London, The myth busted (from GHPC thread): I stopped surfing the web long enough to read a book, gosh I feel clever again. From Tim Harford’s “The logic of life – uncovering the new economics of everything” QUOTE Unfortunately, it is uncommon for neighbourhoods to break out of the vicious circle of poverty. While estate agents love to describe particular areas as “up and coming”, relative to one another neighbourhoods do not tend to “up and come” at all. Anyone who doubts this should look at Charles Booth’s famous map of London’s rich and poor areas at the end of the nineteenth century. <edit> Overlaying Booth’s map with today’s poorest areas is a sobering experience: with few exceptions, yesterday’s poor areas are also today’s poor areas. <a bit about all London richer than it was but relative poverty between areas remain> <Then a bit about how this isn’t surprising, referring back to a previous bit in the book – lively/safe areas stay lively/safe because, well, they are lively and safe> == == Link to Booth's maps and the corresponding modern area: http://tinyurl.com/4gc6ek You can shift the maps with the controls on the left hand of the page.

CDNX is coming into a very interesting "pinch point" ... ...and I think the next move is going to be up. I like; GROW's USERX, EDV.t, PNP.v, and maybe LV.v for those that do not want to pick individual stocks GROW is an individual stock, but not a mining company. They manage diversified funds, including two big resource funds: GROW's Resource Funds ============ Natural Resource Funds................ --Size-- Inception.. : Yr. t.d. : 1 Year : 5 Year : 10 Year ====================== UNWPX : World Precious Minerals.. $1.06bn 11/27/1985 : +1.18% 24.70% 38.60% 14.70% USERX. : Gold and Precious Metals $275mn 07/01/1974 : +8.37% 32.72% 34.40% 14.63% PSPFX.. : Global Resources Fund... $1.56bn 08/03/1983 : - 5.49% 28.38% 43.12% 18.63% Any of the above could be a good investment in the current market, if I am right, and Junior miners are about to run. In the past, the Resource funds HAVE LED jumps in GROW's share price All their funds : http://www.us-global.com/fund/quarterlyreturns.asp

CDNX is coming into a very interesting "pinch point" ... ...and I think the next move is going to be up. I like; GROW's USERX, EDV.t, PNP.v, and maybe LV.v for those that do not want to pick individual stocks GROW is an individual stock, but not a mining company. They manage diversified funds, including two big resource funds: GROW's Resource Funds ============ Natural Resource Funds................ --Size-- Inception.. : Yr. t.d. : 1 Year : 5 Year : 10 Year ====================== UNWPX : World Precious Minerals.. $1.06bn 11/27/1985 : +1.18% 24.70% 38.60% 14.70% USERX. : Gold and Precious Metals $275mn 07/01/1974 : +8.37% 32.72% 34.40% 14.63% PSPFX.. : Global Resources Fund... $1.56bn 08/03/1983 : - 5.49% 28.38% 43.12% 18.63% Any of the above could be a good investment in the current market, if I am right, and Junior miners are about to run. In the past, the Resource funds HAVE LED jumps in GROW's share price All their funds : http://www.us-global.com/fund/quarterlyreturns.asp

Jim S. could be right I like the look of today's action. What's driving this? Any explanations?

I LIKE THE ACTION in Gold and Gold shares today (incl. CDNX & the Juniors) ...and I am adding to my positions - see new thread on GROW/ US Global

NEW TO BUYING ART ?? ================ Buying art for investment or love can be both a life long pleasure and potentially financially rewarding. These tips might help the intrepid new collector: • Trust your eye: only buy something if you really love it, not because you think that it will make you money, there is no such thing as a guaranteed investment. • Don't be afraid of asking for more information about the artist and their techniques. Ask for a copy of the artist’s CV, it is useful to see at what stage in their development they are, if they have had any solo shows etc. • Ask to see other examples of the artist’s work. It is a good sign if you like their whole body of work; this is not essential but can indicate that the artist is consistent in their output. • If you are buying for a specific space, measure up before you start looking, it is possible to make a small painting seem larger to fill a space but hanging a work in a space that is too small will never work. • Many galleries will be happy for you to pay in installments – just ask. • Two or three works can look as effective in a space as one large work. • Ask the seller about how best to hang and light the work • A good frame can enhance a picture hugely; a bad one can ruin it. If the work is unframed then ask about framing – the gallery may offer a framing service. • If a painting you like is over your budget then ask if there are any other works by the same artist. • If you're not sure about a piece ask if you can try it at home for a few days. Many galleries will be happy to oblige; they will probably ask you to pay up front, then give you a refund if it comes back undamaged within an agreed period. • A coloured dot beside a picture usually means the picture had been sold; it may also mean that it is on reserve but has not yet been sold. If it has been sold it may be an edition and other pieces available. You could ask if the artist could do a commission. • Make a note on the back when and where you bought the work and for how much - so when your grandchildren inherit it they know all about it! /see: http://www.hongkongartfair.com/vip/newtobuyingart.php == == .. SCMP's Tips - for those interested in local Hk artists: 1/ Mirage / HK Group exhibition- created by Sabrina Fung (gallery owner) 2/ Meta4 Design Forum, an architectural firm: a styrofoam installation 3/ Grotto Fine Art- only stall focussed exclusively on contemporary HK artists 4/ 10 Chancery Land Gallery- will be exhibiting the works of three local artists OTHERS: + Homan Ho Man-chung's "dramatic kinetic sculpture: + Catherine Lee Yiu-man's "ceramic lotus flowers" + Esther Yip Lai-man's "world of minatures" Comment: "Hong kong is a Chinese City and should be viewed as part of Chinese art - like there's a Shaghai school. There could be a 'Hong Kong school.' That would benefit the local scene

SOME TALKS at HK ART 08: HK - Beijing return: (Chow Chun-fai and Lam Tung-pang) May 15, 4-5 pm Informed Taste: (Monique Berger and Tobias Berger, successful Swiss collectors): May 15, 6-7 pm Cultural Investment: (Henry Tang Ying-yen, Ron Arculli, David Tang Wing-cheun, businessmen, politician, collectors) May 16, 6-7 pm Why art is important in their lives, and the coming importance of the W.Kowloon cultural district Space Exploration: (Elaine Ng, Zhang Wei) May 18, 3-4 pm Aer cities in the pearl river delta (HK. Shenzhen, Guangzhou) creating a different art environment than Beijing /see: xx

Will the HK INT'L ART FAIR boost the local Art scene ? ================== website: http://www.HongKongArtFair.com The SCMP seems to think so... or at least they are willing to help it along with sveral articles promoting the event. INTERESTING POINTS: + HK is the only "world city" not to have a contemporary art museum + Even so, based on auction sales, HK is the third largest art market, after London and New York + Zero taxes for art beng imported or exported through HK, so this may be a good place to build a bigger market + The local interest in art is rising as HK becomes more wealthy, and people acquire more living space. + Some wealth comparisons, and a forecast (from the Economist Intelligence unit).. MILLIONAIRES, PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS, with US$ 1million Net Worth City/Country== : ( 2007 ) : ( 2017) Hong Kong........ : 26.4 % ... 39.4% Singapore......... : 23.3 % ... 40.7 % Switzerland....... : 22.3 % ... 28.1 % Denmark.......... : 17.9 % ... 21.7 % Britain.............. : 15.6 % ... 18.9 % Ireland............. : 14.8 % ... 17.7 % United States.... : 14.7 % ... 24.3 % (is this jump likely?) (Above from an article in today's SCMP by Jake van der Kamp, who wonders about the accurancy of the forecasts when it comes to future appreciation of property values, and future exchange rates. I wonder if they have captured the deterioration of wealth that is going on now in the US, the UK and Ireland due to the current housing bust. At the end of 2007, I forecast that this would be a huge theme for 2008, and so it is. I do agree that the relative climb in Asia over the next 10 years is a very good bet, as HK and Singapore, widen their leads in having the wealthiest populations. That should be good for the art markets in the two cities.) http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8674/fe...e2748413qx8.jpg ((Feng Mengbo)) When?: May 14 -18; time 11am-7pm / May 14th: preview, by invitation only Where? HK Convention and Exhibition Centre, Wanchai What? : "The most significant art fair in Hong Kong in a decade" Cost ?: HK$150 per person To see: 102 galleries exhibiting 850 artists from more than 20 countries. Western artists: Picasso, Andy Warhol, Keith Haring, and Francis Bacon Eastern artists: Feng Mangbo, Zhang Xiaogang, Xu Bing, and a range of HK artists == == ECONOMY • Hong Kong remains the world’s freest economy. Hong Kong is followed by Singapore, with New Zealand, Switzerland and the United States tying for third (Economic Freedom of the World: 2006 Annual Report – Cato Institute). • Hong Kong is the largest venture capital centre in Asia, managing 29% of the total capital pool in the region. As of June 2006, there were 185 Hong Kong-based funds with capital under management amounting to US$40 billion (Hong Kong Trade Development Council). • Hong Kong was Asia’s second largest destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2005. On a global scale Hong Kong ranked sixth (UNCTAD World Investment Report 2006). • Hong Kong is the world’s 11th largest Trading Economy. • Hong Kong is the largest source of overseas direct investment in the Chinese mainland (Hong Kong Trade Development Council). PRIVATE WEALTH The Asia-Pacific region contains 27.1% of the global high net worth individual wealth (Asia Pacific Wealth Report 2006 – Gemini / Merrill Lynch) • 5.4% of those high net worth individuals live in Hong Kong with a combined wealth of US$410 billion with an average net worth of US$5.3 million. Hong Kong leads the region showing the highest average wealth per high net worth individual. • High net worth individuals in Hong Kong are recognised as being the most sophisticated investors in the region. (Cap Gemini/Merrill Lynch Relationship Manager Survey 2006, Cap Gemini/Merrill Lynch Asia-Pacific Financial Advisory Survery 2006). • Hong Kong’s wealthy are geographically clustered. In an area of just 423 sq miles there are over 88,000 high net worth individuals. • The combined wealth of the 40 richest Hong Kong and Taiwan citizens rose by US$28 billion from 2006 to $154 billion in 2007 (Forbes Magazine). For further details please see the Hong Kong Trade Development Council website Galleries in both Hong Kong and mainland China are reporting increased sales to Asian collectors, whose interest has been stimulated by the investment potential of the international art market. The market for Contemporary Asian Art is strong and, contrary to popular belief, buyers from the region are playing an increasingly important role in developing this market - 76 % of the buyers in the April sale of Chinese Contemporary Art at Sotheby’s Hong Kong were from Asia. Hong Kong’s location at the centre of Asia provides ease of access to visitors from all over the continent. In particular, its special political status means that Hong Kong is convenient for visitors from Taiwan who are a key collector group, with direct flights taking just over 1½ hours. Direct flights are currently not permitted between Taiwan and mainland China and journey times to Beijing and Shanghai take between 6 and 7 hours with a stop-over in Hong Kong. Approximate journey times to Hong Kong from other locations are as follows: Sydney 9 hrs, Delhi 5½ hrs, Tokyo 4½ hrs, Beijing, Singapore and Seoul 3½ hrs, Bangkok and Shanghai 2½ hrs. According to the SCMP article: "China collectors are looking for new work from established artists, though their work will be pricier, but collectors are also seeking out the younger cheaper ones who have a lot of potential." About Inspiration, from Magnus Renfrew, fair art director for Art HK 08: "I think the thing that attracted me to come to Asia and to China was that there is such fertile ground for inspiration. In China you have the largest movements of population from rural to urban environments that the world has ever seen. Everything in China is in superlatives. And with such large changes there are huge implications." (Which can be seen in the artowrk, apparently.) Some established galleries who will be exhibiting include: Marlborough Fine Art (London) : http://www.marlboroughfineart.com Other Galleries : http://www.hongkongartfair.com/exhibitors/artgalleries.php

Amongst billionaires (not lowly millionaires, like myself), ART investing seems to be about getting attention for being rich (by splashing out at auctions), and about collecting brand names. Consequently, it is a wonderful place to observe the psychology and confidence amongst the ultra-rich. Like you, and others here, I personally collect what appeals to me, and what I can afford (spending up to hk$10,000 per work of art.) But the fantasy is still there: maybe I can identify an artist early in his career, whose work may one day get caught in that tornado of greed, hype, and conspicuous consumption that is the art auction market. Meantime, I will ry to understand the cycles in that top end, brand name art. And maybe one day, it will get cheap enough that I will want to buy some.

"I think I'm losing my faith... I'm in danger of selling up and going back to 5% savings accounts!" That's exactly what these corrections do - they make you feel that way. The lesson: Invest less earlier, and wait for others to convey this feeling.

Ted Harrison? Who is that?

The thing here is maybe to look for undervalued and unappreciated art, that has upwards potential I might put works by local Hong Kong-based artists into that category. And I will definitely be investing their work in the months to come. Any other similar ideas? ... Tibet? ...South American artists? ...Gulf States?

Benham's is promoting BTL investment to HK based investors... A seminar entitled: ‘How to make money from London property rentals’ Event Details: Thursday 8th May at The China Club, Old Bank of China Building, Bank Street, Central from 6.30pm. Right now, despite the “credit crunch” the London property market is buoyant. Both capital appreciation and rental returns are holding. Anita has over 25 years experience of the London property rental market and runs the longest established lettings agency in Central London. Virtually no one has more experience of letting properties in London than her. What you can learn at this seminar: * Anita will be talking about what you can do to your property to increase both rental income and capital appreciation. Anita has an incredible talent for this, having, in some cases, almost doubled rental income with a few interior design ideas. And Anita is not the only person you can learn from... * Marc von Grundherr, who is the Lettings Director for Benham & Reeves and he will be talking about the current state of the London property market with a particular emphasis on the rentals market. If you do not regularly visit London this talk will give you a real feel for where the market is now. * Russell Hunt from Property Hunt specialises in finding the best London properties for either investment or home purchase. He will be telling you exactly what to look for when you are selecting a property in London. * Also Peter Wynn Williams from the Henley Group will be talking about: the effects of the sub-prime crisis and it's knock-on effects; the importance of asset allocation and diversification; the Henley Group's view on all the major investment asset classes: cash and bonds, equities, property, commodities (especially oil, gold & wheat), and funds of hedge funds. About Benham & Reeves Residential Lettings Benham & Reeves Residential Lettings has been established for over 50 years and is London's main lettings agency. We have ten offices covering London's prime areas, from Hampstead, Highgate and Swiss Cottage in the north west through to St John’s Wood, Hyde Park, Kensington and Knightsbridge in the centre extending east to the City and Docklands. No other London lettings agency has as much local knowledge as we do. From the landlord's perspective, finding the best tenants is always the biggest concern. Because we have been established for so long we now occupy the top of the London lettings market, most of our tenants are wealthy (and credit-worthy) executives working for established, large companies. We have an excellent record for achieving high rental income. = = = = = "Both capital appreciation and rental returns are holding" ??? Is that a credible statement?