drbubb

i will swap over to a different green - like this one:

(EWI has some interesting comments on the US Builders, and sentiment): EXCERPTS: 1/ Years ago, analyst Paul M. Montgomery (www.montgomerycap.com) developed a market indicator based on popular magazine covers. The theory behind such a seemingly esoteric signal is quite logical: by the time a financial trend has been in force so long or is so intense that it makes it through the publics consciousness to the cover of a popular news weekly, that trend is often near exhaustion and ready to reverse. Signals work approximately 80% of the time and some leeway is allowed between the time the cover appears and the actually price reversal, usually a month or two (although many trend changes do in fact occur close to the publication of the magazine cover). TIME Magazine : "Home $weet Home" (peak- June 2005) Business Week : "Bonfire of the Builders" (low?) 2/ By the time the summer of 2005 rolled around, housing was on fire. Real estate prices were skyrocketing and people were “flipping” condo’s and houses for pure financial gain versus using them as shelter. Housing stocks likewise were in a strong bull market, rising over 900% from a March 2000 low, the same month the S&P 500 topped prior to the start of the great bear market. By mid-June, the speculation was so intense that Time magazine ran a cover titled, “Home $weet Home,” as seen on the above chart. According to Montgomery’s indicator, housing stocks should have been near a high. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index topped several weeks later and has since declined 62%. Our bearish forecast was published in the September 2005 issue of EWFF in which we discussed the exponential rise in housing stocks and the strong potential for a steep decline. Note the five-wave form of the selloff from July 2005 to the present. This week’s Business Week cover is titled, “Bonfire of the Builders,” and the accompanying article talks at length of the current housing woes. Accordingly, the magazine cover indicator suggests that downtrend of the past two years is near a point of exhaustion and that housing stocks should be fast approaching a rally. From an Elliott wave standpoint, the structure of the decline would look best with a bounce and then one more new low so that wave 5 subdivides into the requisite five-wave form. But with such a steep decline in a relatively short span we are not completely certain the index will deliver the up-down sequence we desire. Our view is that any rally that does develop will ultimately prove to be countertrend, taking the form of an “ABC” or some variation thereof. In other words, we do not think that the U.S. housing affliction is over, even if the price of housing stocks do bounce. And of course there is always the possibility that the cover indicator does not “work” this time and housing stocks continue to plummet. From an empirical standpoint however, we’ve seen it mark a trend reversal too many times in various markets and stocks not to take it’s message seriously. 3/ The main reason we think the housing sector will remain under long-term pressure is that our work indicates were are still in the early stages of a credit contraction, which is the main lubricant for housing. Although not part of our forecast, another magazine cover this week that, in our estimation, supports this stance is seen above. Observe how the Economist decides to spin their story: a credit crunch is actually a good thing! The subtitle says, “Tighter credit conditions are just what the markets need.” We would suggest an alternate view, one we’ve discussed at length in nearly every issue of EWFF this year. Our August issue, which we published today, starts with a Special Section titled, “The Credit Bubble Bursts.” It speaks for itself. (August issue: 7.Aug.2007)

(from a 2006 article on the connection between US builders and US real estate prices): That's what happened in the first quarter of 2006, which was not so kind to the homebuilders group. Financial results showed a negative trend, Mack says. "New home demand is weakening, due to interest rates seen going higher and diminished affordability," he says. "For virtually every public builder, new home orders declined in the March quarter." Homebuiders have responded to this operational dilemma in different ways. Some have increased incentives on homes, expanded advertising campaigns, and are using more outside brokers. Others have allowed option contracts for land purchases to expire and are writing down the value of certain assets, mainly land. Community openings have also been delayed. "Financial responses include increased share repurchases and the repayment of relatively high-yielding debt," according to Mack. "If demand remains weak, there is a possibility that community counts will flatten." PRICE DECLINES. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, March housing starts declined 7.8% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.96 million. But the March numbers increased 6.9% from March, 2005. S&P expects housing starts of 1.92 million this year and 1.75 million in 2007, compared with 2.07 million in 2005. Homebuilding stocks have dropped 11.6% on average this year (through May 5), according to S&P. The recent weakness caused Mack to upgrade a few names on May 12. He raised Beazer Homes (BZH) and Ryland Group (RYL) to hold from sell, and NVR (NVR) to sell from strong sell. However, he did not change his price targets and earnings forecasts, which were recently lowered. "Sharp recent declines in the price of the shares offset some of our concern about demand for homes, which we think will continue to weaken overall," Mack says of all three stocks ...more: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/conte...0515_956930.htm

Very kind ! Thanks, Consa

DONE ! I put this up: http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/5856/geilogonewlgpn8.gif Any Comments from members?? I think the colors look Great! Nice work, NettleBaron

That's no problem. Thanks for your work on this, NB. I am having problems getting your logo up. I think Invision change the location of something. But I will spend some time on that project this weekend, if not sooner

http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/public/showPage...PageName=459811 QUOTE House prices will begin to fall in August as interest rates give homebuyers the upper hand in the negotiating process, according to Your Move. The estate agent's "predictor", based on the Land Registry Index, claims that average house prices will peak at £182,748 in July and will fall to £182,134 by the end of August. Your Move also predicts that month on month growth will fall to -0.34% and year on year growth will fall to 8.83%, down from 9.46% this month. Your Move also states that the percentage of asking price to agreed prices is expected to ease, from 92.7% in July, to 19.1% in August, giving buyers an advantage when negotiating a purchase. The estate agent’s actual agreed prices, which are typically reached 11 weeks before exchange, fell by 0.47% on average in July.

GEI's MISSION - broadening it: My plan for GEI is to turn it into a a website appealing to High Net Worths, and those aspring to be HNW's, using their investment prowess to get there. There may be some sites like that in the USA, but no one has yet build a GLOBAL website like that.

That's quite excellent, NB. The onbly small suggestion would be to experiment with a shadow behind the glowing planet maybe

Nettle Baron, I like it, and will use it for awhile- seeking more comments here. Can you convert the "incorporating GreenEnergyInvestors.com" part also?? TESTING... #1: Aug. 2007 Header Logos: . #1: Aug. 2007 Header Logos: . = = TAGS: Commodity Watch Radio Business Discussing the commodities markets, what's happening and why. We talk expert guests, miners and traders. In association with Minesite.com Tag: gold silver metal uranium base metals commodities oil gas dominic frisby boom bust minesite michael hampton dr bubb GEI mining miner global edge investors money green energy investors

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=idx Consa sees this as competition to GEI - what do you think?

Some "Bubb Logos" , etc 1/ on Hpc 2/ on Hpc . . 3/ on GHPC July 2007 Header Logos: . = = Other BLOGS (some not developed much): http://www.blogger.com/profile/3699374 http://my.telegraph.co.uk/DrBubb/

(from Chuck Coppes) As I have mentioned elsewhere on my business Web site, Nikolai Kondratieff (1892-1938) demonstrated that Western capitalist societies experience long-term cycles of boom followed by bust. These grand supercycles generally run about sixty years and the present supercycle began in 1949. This period from 2007 to 2009 is a very critical period for economic and geopolitical tensions that are beginning to rise to the surface. Starting in January of 2008 the first cohort of baby-boomers will begin to retire and this will only expose the nearly $66 trillion in unfunded liabilities for eighty million aging Americans. In 2008 we will also have new elections and political leadership in the U.S. Someone once said that politicians and diapers need to be changed often – and for the same reason. It is unlikely, however, that either political party, the Fed, or anyone else will be able to reverse our nation’s path towards economic Armageddon. Contrarian investors need to watch their investments closely this year and hedge themselves in hard assets, tangibles, foreign currency and other defensive strategies. @: http://www.chuckcoppes.com/general/my_forecast_for_2007.html

===== Date: -TW-- 1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx/26.80 /FTSE x4477 Jl/29 360.75 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45 jul13 334.75 465.30 969.5 1167.0 1861.44 453.00 4916.2 183.44 6717 122.27 jul20 333.25 463.22 963.5 1184.0 1849.92 468.25 4928.9 183.91 6585 125.04 jul27 293.75 408.31 904.5 1099.0 1736.64 421.25 4569.7 170.51 6215 122.83 In Two weeks, Total Index fell by by a huge -7.1% (4916.2 to 4567.7), but the Adjusted Index rose slightly because FTSE fell more than this. Looks like both markets are cooling fast.

Homebuilders Plunge In the U.S., shares of homebuilders plunged to the lowest in almost four years after D.R. Horton Inc. and Beazer Homes USA Inc. reported LOSSES. A government report showed purchases of new homes in the U.S. dropped more than forecast in June. D.R. Horton fell 1.8 percent to $17.16 after reporting its first quarterly loss in at least a decade. Beazer dropped 8.7 percent to $15.56. -see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

GIVING UP the Mini-Boom gains (since late 2005) One of my "three main builders", Taylor Wimpey (TW), has done just that. The other two, Barratt and Persimmon, remain under pressure. How long before UK property prices are back to 2005 prices, on their way lower? The above chart, shows trends which could give up all those gains by late 2007, and maybe early 2008 in the UK property market. Keep monitoring the Builders!

The 2008-and-after DEMOGRAPHIC/CREDIT MELTDOWN from interview with: "Demons of Our Own Design" author Here's an interesting argument about a possible meltdown from a FS interview: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2007-0721-2.asx (go to 56 minutes into the broadcast): "If the market is at the same level 15-20 years later... that's like a meltdown." And it may happen in Property Jim Puplava asked Richard Bookstabber if we coudl see a repeat of 1929 or 1987. RB said a repeat was unlikely. Hedge Funds are set up to play the financial markets aggressively. But most individuals have a different portfolio (with a property emphasis.) But a different and equally dangerous scenario may play out: + Failure in the mortgage markets, with out in the credit markets + Daggers are pointing to the financial institutions, and those who use them The CRISIS is most likely after 2008-2010, when the baby-boomers reach retirement: + Too many people are "putting too much stock" in their properties, as a principal pension-type asset + If housing prices start to drop, so they can no longer be used as a nest-egg, + Then, the crisis will spread to the equity markets, as people sell those assets too + Could be a slowburn, because the baby-boomers gradually liquidate their assets, to fund their retirement + But fewer buyers are about, because of the demographic situation (the post 1960's "baby bust"). + So the properties get sold at lower-than-expected prices, especially after considering inflation

CONFIDENCE IS FADING, amongst property investors in the stock market Investors switch from UK to international property Telegraph: New Star recovers from UK fund sell-off "But earlier this month New Star, and fellow fund manager Norwich Union, reacted to rising redemptions by reducing the price at which units can be encashed - wiping nearly £300m off the value of two of Britain's biggest property funds in the process and sparking a wave of panic buying. Both companies insisted there was no reason to panic at the sudden reversal in the fortunes of their funds. Returns from UK property have been close to 20pc a year for 3 years. Neither fund manager would say how much money had flowed out of the funds." Landlords, lesson learned, head for the exit! ...more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../bcnstar120.xml

HUGE destruction of value ($71 to under $17: a fall of over -75% !) occurring so far since July 2005- in two years. Most of the other US builders have similar falls, and the US HPI indices lagged by almost 12 months, and are now down (only) 8-10%, which is the most since the great depression of the 1930's

By Stuart J Watson One of my (many) bugbears is house price indices. Or, to be more precise, my issue is the media's obsession with every tiny movement that they have. There are several surveys to choose from these days. Oh for the good old days when we only had to worry about Nationwide and Halifax numbers. Recent years have seen new measures launched by Hometrack, Rightmove (LSE: RMV.L - news) , Financial Times and even the government. To add to the confusion, some surveys are purely on averages of others, rather than analysing their own unique data. . . The problem lies in trying to discern anything meaningful from such a small data set. There are around 150,000 residential property sales a month in the UK at the moment. So each month's data represents about 0.5% of our total housing stock of 25 million and most surveys only look at a fraction of sales each month. ...more: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=51470

(LET'S LOOK BACK at this posting at end 2008, and see how the mainstream forecasters have done): It’s official. The housing boom will end next year. The Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned that house price growth will fall to between 2% and 3% in 2008. In real terms, given that inflation is more than 3% just now, that suggests prices will fall. Of course, lenders and estate agents have learned to hit the panic button hard while the Bank of England is hiking interest rates. The hope is that they can somehow scare the Monetary Policy Committee into veering off course. But somehow, we don’t think their influence is as great as they wish it was… The Council of Mortgage Lenders has cut its forecast for 5% house price growth in 2008, to 2%-3%. The move comes in reaction to higher-than-expected interest rates. Director-general Michael Coogan said: “I don’t believe there will be a crash, but clearly a slowdown is more likely in an environment of higher interest rates.” ...more: http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...showtopic=20674 - - The BBI Index is forecasting a slide, and much earlier than that. Let's see which is more useful

(from a thread on Advfn): cheading - 16 Jul'07 - 17:51 - 2703 ===== For those wishing to hear Roland speak on bringing GAL to the TSX and AIM markets he's appearing at Cityzone, this Thursday evening at: De Vere Venues, Holborn Bars, 138 - 142 Holborn, London, EC1N 2NQ Location: http://streetmap.co.uk/newmap.srf?x=531196...p=newsearch.srf Agenda: www.city-zone.com/modules/page/page.aspx?pid=736 If you'd like to attend please contact Ronan Bryan, on 0207 700 2727 (t) or mob: 0777 575 1457. (I'll be presenting too, on behalf of 2sms.com, a seven year punt for me). Note: that is c.heading, not DB speaking

Two KEY Uk Builders shares Barratt Developments/ BDEV ... update : Daily-12 months Taylor Wimpey/ TW* ... update : Daily-12 months COMPARE: US Builder, Hovnanian / HOV ... update

(from an HPC thread, entitled): "Is The Uk Really 12 Months Behind The Us?, First bearish news of impending US disaster - summer 2006" ======== I think the UK is approximately 12 -18 months behind. But the UK's peak and fall may have been speeded up (& it can be slowed down) + US Builders peaked in July 2005 + UK Builders peaked in late 2006 (December?) The UK top is being put in place NOW (july 2007??) imho, which is about 7 months after the Builders peaked. (The US indices went negative about 10-12 months after the US builders peaked.) The slide in the Builders, if it continues, would lend confirmation to this view, as would reports in the August and September HPI indices, that negative growth as started. @: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=51299

(OLD Comment - worth re-visiting. This was posted in August 2005, and obviously I have changed my view on the length of the UK cycle. I really should have looked back more than two cycles, as Fred Harrison has done.): SOME THOUGHTS on Future UK House prices: + A “crash” will not happen overnight, out of the blue, and it will take time for momentum to develop, + I have had considerable success in forecasting cycles in other markets: including shipping, stocks, and gold, and even a certain amount of renown for doing so. And I believe that property has shown a fairly clear cycle of 15 years, which has generally been: 10 years up, followed by 5 years down. On this basis, I believe the upcycle started in 1994, ended in 2004, and the downcycle “should” finish in 2009/2010. (Greater London prices here) + I Do not expect instant falls. I believe we should be seeing 1%+ monthly falls by year-end, and that such a rate will persist for years on the way to 2009-2010. + The first clue that the 1% falls are upon us should show up in the stock market, in the shares of UK Homebuilders. I have developed a “Property Crash Index” of Five UK Homebuilders, to help provide an early warning: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=13797 + The beauty of this new index is two-fold: It is Real-time (and can be compiled in a few minutes using up-to-the-second data), and it is totally transparent and objective (since anyone can compile it the same way, and we will all get the exact same answer for the same point in time.) (Talking about the Downward Pressure index, another index tested with the BBI): + This index (DPI) has been at under 40% for most of 2004 and 2005. The only brief exception was end-October 2004, when it briefly shot up to 70%! But a possible crash scenario was averted by a sharp rise in Builder share prices in November/December, helped greatly I believe by a downwards shift in long term interest rates… (Note: The BBI index made another dip in Aug-Oct.2005, and then showed a sharp recovery in Nov.2005.) @: http://neverhappy.com/about-neverhappy/#comment-33