drbubb

Pacific Northwest Capital : PFN.t chart Looks a little gem. What they have is a big PGM deposit (mostly palladium), and Angloplats as a partner Other charts: Beartooth / BTP chart Gold Summit / GSM chart Are Junior platinum shares going to lead the junior golds "out of the basement"? I hope so.

PLATINUM JUNIOR VALUATIONS Company...... AMC/oz*:Stk price/ Primary listing ARQ.t- : Anooraq.......... 11 : C$ 2.82 / Toronto - 1690733 CAL.t- : Caledonia Mining. 88 : C$ 0.17 / Toronto - 103296 ELR.t- : Eastern Platinum. 15 : C$ 2.67 / Toronto - 2736285 JLP.L- : Jubilee Platinum.. 6 : ££ 1.23 / London - 1223392 NKP.au : Nkwe Platinum.... 15 : A$ 1.01 / Australia - 1558493 PPD.au : Pan Palladium..... 3 : A$ 0.25 / Australia - 390357 PLA.au : Platinum Austral. 68 : A$ 1.80 / Australia - 215694 PMCI.L : PMC of India..... 27 : ££ 0.12 / London - 1954520 PPN.t- : Platmin Ltd...... 37 : C$ 9.50 / Toronto - 2390411 PTM.t- : PlatinumGr.Metals 32 : C$ 4.56 / Toronto - 1736999 RDG.L- : Ridge Mining...... 6 : ££ 1.51 / Toronto - 176068 WEZ.za : Wesizwe Platinum 123 : R 14.00 / JSE - Wesizwe Symbol : (Others) AIMR.L : AIM Resources....... : £ .0925 / London - 1948228 BTP.v- : Beartooth Platinum.. : C$ 0.16 / CDNX - 1219948 BRR.L- : Braemore Resources.. : £ .0935 / London - 1945004 CPW.v- : Cons. Puma Minerals. : C$ 1.90 / CDNX - 152461 PDL.t- : No.Amer. Palladium.. : C$11.25 / Toronto - 103469 PFN.t- : Pacific Northwest... : C$ 0.49 / Toronto -1300046 SVL.L- : Sylvania Resources.. : £ 0.810 / London - - * Adjusted market capitalisation, US$/ounce ** Under offer / taken over : APP.L- : African Platinum** 8 : ££ 0.55 / London - xxxxxx : Afriore**........ 15 : C$ 8.72 / Toronto - ELD.za : Eland Platinum**. 73 : R117.50 / JSE - Source: RBC Capital Markets /see: Advfn charts thread: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=16500505 = = = Are Junior platinum shares going to lead the junior golds "out of the basement"? I hope so.

CHART UPDATE CHART: Gold and Major Gold shares vs. Juniors (CDNX) and SPX With gold currently trading in excess of $900, I believe that junior miners now look very cheap relative to gold and to the major gold share, and are at levels which are attractively valued versus fundamentals. The senior gold shares have nearly kept pace with gold, but the juniors have not. And the ratio of the CDNX index (a proxy for Juniors) to HUI (an index of Major gold shares), has fallen by over 40%, from the May 2007 peak ratio of 10.24 to recent levels near 6.00. RATIO : Juniors Miners (CDNX, as a proxy) to Major Golds (HUI) Several factors which we believe will drive this ratio higher: + Takeover bids, by Majors (whose stock prices are higher) of small companies, + High profile discoveries by the Junior companies - with many drill programmes presently underway + Greater interest amongst retail investors, if and when Gold moves above $1,000 per ounce, + A renewed interest in higher beta stocks, at some stage after fears in the general market ease There is normally a sharp bounceback in the Junior stocks after tax-selling in November and December. I have seen that rally in something like six years out of the last six, and made handsome profits with the strategy of buying year-end “tax bargains” in each year. But a January bounce did not come in 2008. Why not? The likely reason is unusual weakness in the general market, which showed its worst January start in over a decade. So it is not surprising than Juniors suffered also.

Just when you were getting really worried about Juniors... we get outperformance Chart ... update Remember what JS said: "From 1970 to 1979 on balance the entire junior gold and silver category lagged gold and silver themselves until it was obvious that both metals were going ballistic. The junior precious metals then outperformed gold and the major gold shares." A sprint through Gold-$1000 may be just what the Juniors need

Nice opposite action between rising CDNX and falling SPX today (so far!)

I can, but with a few words of caution. I like two HK-listed equities, but started buying too soon: I think they are trading at something like a 40-50% discount to the NAV of their property assets Link to : thread in the GEI members section (coming)

(David Vaugh remains Bullish on Gold Miners): The large gold financial institutions are buying gold equities by the bucket load. And which stocks are they buying? The senior companies. It is only a matter of time before the junior stocks are covered. Let’s listen to who I believe is one of the most competent gold analysts in the market. Ken Gerbino -“…the juniors on a relative basis are extremely undervalued and that a substantial rally should be starting soon.”“New money into the gold arena is going into the big names. These managers and investors have not started to look at Canada and the junior sector yet. But as they eventually get more familiar and comfortable with the industry they start looking for smaller growth and value situations and that leads them into the junior sector.” “The key to making an above average return is competent evaluations and patience. This sometimes takes many years. Patience will outweigh the volatility of the gold and silver mining sector as intrinsic value eventually gets recognized. The laws of supply and demand let you sleep comfortably.” Ken Gerbino, Kitco, 2-4-2008 Gold mining stocks will eventually rally but patience is the name of the game. Another highly rated gold analyst shares his longer term price for gold this year. “I still see $1200 gold and $25 silver coming this year.” By Rick Ackerman, Kitco, 2-4-2008 Think long term, always longer term. The price of gold in the short term will move in extremes in every direction but gold will be overall strong for the rest of this decade and beyond. /more: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/0212.html

Remember, the UK is a year (or more) behind the US in the cycle, and it may take a littkle longer for the downturn to BITE in Central London. I reckon it is biting hard through out the Uk now, and as it came late (is coming late) to New York, it may come late to Central London too. Eventually, I continue to believe that London will be the GROUND ZERO of the global property bust. And selling now, if you still can, will prove very wise. Greetings and best wishes to the GEI lurker (& occasional poster) whom I met yesterday, who had the great sense to sell in London to buy in Hong kong. Escaping the foolishness of Brown's ex-Miracle, to enjoy the advantages of a more genuine miracle

I notice that CDNX (and SPX too!) has worked its way back up to the gap it left when it fell sharply on the opening back over a week ago (last Tuesday's opening): It is likely, that CDNX will need to show more volume, if its rise is to continue. (Ditto for SPX) My favorite stock from Capetown is North Atlantic Resources (NAC.v), and I have been eating away at a big block for sale at $0.37. It looks like, we finally "ate through it yesterday". I like the story. In 2006, it traded as high as $5.00. Market Cpa is under $10 Million, with Gold, Oil, and Uranium assets. The Uranium in Niger, is being spun off into a new vehicle.

SURE. We are still in the middle of it. The really dramatic part ought to be triggered by Gold's sprint through $1,000, and after a "kiss it goodbye" ("back to ice") move

interesting comment. many have cashed up- just in case. And EVENTUALLY, we will see the bull move of a generation, which they may disbelieve

Those are excellent grades, and it becomes more apparent when you put them in grams per tonne: (1 ounce/ton = xx g/t) + 9m of 1.4 oz/t Gold Equiv. at La Arista : 9.0 x 43.65 g/t = xxx /AU only: 9.0 x 6.90 g/t = xxx + 10m of 0.55 oz/t Gold Equiv. at El Aire : 10. x 16.94 g/t = xxx /AU only: 10. x 2.16 g/t = xxx ... and do a "boxer" analysis*: (within a one cu meter drill "box" following the drillhole, there are how many grams?) 9.0 x 43.65 = 392.8 /AU only: 9.0 x 6.90 = 62.1 (less than 100 on a "pure gold basis") 10. x 16.94 = 169.4 /AU only: 10. x 2.16 = 21.6 It is rare, very rare, when a company reports a 100-boxer (i.e. better than 10x10) and the price goes down! However, please note that these are "gold equivalents", and poly metallic deposits are difficult to refine. I suppose this shows that too few people are following the stock. The Reids will have to work to get the story out more widely. Too many existing holders may be unhappy about the polymetallic part of the story. It bothers me somewhat too, to see that these high grades come from a "gold equivalent" calculation. = = *"Boxer analysis": is a tool that I have developed myself. It is useful, but very "quick and dirty". Nevertheless, it does give some feeling for how much gold is down there. And it gets people away from focussing on the tiny high grade parts.

"Annualised" returns are poor guides to the future, and dont even tell us much about the present. Do you really think that houses prices are still RISING in London?

Hard to believe. What's the data source? (so much about London property seems to be lies. Hong Kong is much more honest and transparent.)

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I think those growing fears will help to insure taht will not happen Although Major Gold shares sold off with gold's drop, the juniors held up well. That could be taken (and IS TAKEN by me) as a positive non-confirmation. But we need more of that ! My own gut tells me that Gold may soon lacerate the recents highs, and will drag the Junior invetsors back into the market. Junior slingshot anyone?

Frank Barbera is BEARISH on Gold stocks (including Juniors) He doesnt like: + The downside reversal in the Major Gold stocks, + The failure of juniors to participate Next 4-5 months, "we could see gold moving down to $675-700 area" After the drop, he sees a "mega-rally in the gold stocks" IF "we go thru $950, I will throw in the towel on the Bear case" (Personally, I think he will be throwing in the towel. But let's see, and let's keep open minds on what might happen.)

EXCERPT: OK you'll say but what about the junior exploration companies? They have been trading like if gold was trading at $400 instead of $900, what is going on over here? Should we sell our juniors and swap them for rock solid producing entities or is there some light at the end of this long dark tunnel? Sure enough I got a lot of questions coming my way asking what to do with our juniors since the general attitude seems to be that most juniors will have a hard time to survive the on-going liquidity crisis. The argument is that due to the liquidity crisis it will be harder and harder for juniors to raise money and juniors not able to raise money for their exploration adventures are doomed to file for chapter 11 rather sooner than later. Although I understand such logic I simply disagree with it. My point is that it only requires such a tiny percentage of the total amount of invested money to flow into the gold share sector in order to skyrocket all gold shares into spectacular new highs. / Remember that in 1980 about 5% of all invested money was in gold and gold shares, we 're nowhere close to even 1/10 of that today!! You get it? Even a small amount of money flowing into the gold share arena will blow it up big time./ Juniors sitting on a significant amount of proven resources will do well since there's a huge demand for new resources by the senior producers. Right now the huge sell-off among the juniors is driven by fear which has driven the entire junior sector into extreme over-sold territories. the good news however is that such extremities never persist for a long period of time and in order to work off that extremity the gold price has to come down sharply or the junior sector has to catch up sharply. Let me visualize the extreme undervaluation by means of a few charts. Normally when the gold price goes up you would expect the juniors to go up as well. Now a good tool in order to determine extreme over/undervaluation of the junior gold shares is to divide the junior index by the price of gold. Now let's say when gold appreciates by 10% and the junior index appreciates by 10% as well then the chart will show you a flat line since the ratio didn't change. Now as long as the line stays flat the juniors appreciate exactly by the same percentage as the gold price. When the line turns down the juniors under-perform the gold price and when the line goes up the juniors do outperform the gold price. Since there isn't really a junior index I used the CDNX index which isn't really a perfect match but nevertheless good enough to draw our conclusions. Now let's take a peek first at the daily CDNX/GOLD ratio chart: ...continues... Conclusion: The most interesting part of this chart is without doubt the almost identical setup as in early 2003. Now the year of 2003 turned out to be the best year for the juniors so far and in fact still many juniors are trading at levels below their 2003 peak! Another beauty of this chart is that it leaves plenty of room for a giant up-move for the juniors which could last for more than a year! Now during these turbulent times what can you expect from us coming days? + Break-out alerts from TGDR TOP-20 companies breaking out of their recent down-trend to the upside + Discussion of which TGDR TOP-20 stocks will be getting more focus/attention and which ones will be faded out over time. etc.

Green shoots of recovery in the Junior sector-- Are we seeing them? Here's a list of Juniors I own that are starting to look up: (At Friday, 1 feb. I noticed): JNY.v : Journey Resources at $0.36 GCE.t : Grand Cache Coal at $1.74 CSM.t : Central Sun Mining at $1.85 (was Glencairn before reverse split) = = = As more perk up, I will add them to the list = = =

Had lunch in HK today with a Denver-based mining expert, who is a director of over 10 mining co's. Some reasons he gave for the cheapness of Juniors: + Fear: too many people have lost money in stocks, and they have reduced risk appetite, and they do not want to invest their precious money in risky companies that need to keep returning to the market to replenish their capital + Base metals: mnay juniors are also in base metals, and those prices are far off their early 2007 highs Hope is on the way; + There are at least 3 large Private equity funds being set up yo invest in mining related ventures. This is likely to bring more M&A activity to the sector. And many co's in the sector already have strong cash flow

I started a new thread on "Noise Trading" - a concept that I want to develop

Interesting concept- using YouTube to promote the Wormhole project. I posted some links there *(to this thread), had a look at Munnecke's site there, and have sent him a message. Who knows, he may be willing to do an interview. Do you use Skype, M. ?

Thnx, Fr. We can see in that chart, that Gold is running and running fast ahead of the Juniors. At some point, the rising Gold price pught to drag upwards the value of Gold deposits within the Junior companies. We need to stay patient. It is amazing to see these "development stage" companies sliding ... ...while Gold powers ahead ! Here's what Frank Barbera says: "On a relative strength basis, Juniors Gold’s remain in a solid downtrend which now dates back to a peak last March 15th. Certainly, a mature and extended period of relative under-performance, there is quite a mystery as to why these stocks are not moving up aggressively in light of record, multi-year highs for all metals. While no one explanation is readily apparent, perhaps the only explanation may be that of diminished risk appetite as the broader trend for stocks has entered a bear phase and financial institutions are pairing back risk rather then becoming more aggressive. With so many of these companies engaged in rigorous drilling programs, --- programs that enhance shareholder and property value, the inherent ‘value’ proposition illustrated in most quality juniors seems to be getting better and better with each passing month. Who knows, perhaps these are the key ingredients for a mania style bull market once more broad based confidence returns to the global markets." I have chosen to draw my own lines on a chart in Barbera's article: This shows the FS Index of Junior Golds vs. XAU /see: http://www.financialsense.com/metals/FSJG/2008/0128.html = = My own optimstic interpretation is this: From 2002 to early 2007, the Juniors ran ahead too fast, and the companies became too expensive for the Majors to continue making acquisitions. In their enthusiasm, the buyers of the smaller mining and exploration stocks had temporarily forgotten that many Junior co's are like "burning matches." They have to keep coming back to the market to raise money to finance their exploration and development efforts. As the credit crisis spread into stock markets, and finance became harder to raise, the risk-of-refinancing was brought back home to the markets, and risk premiums got larger so that the mining Juniors have lagged for months. Now we are waiting from some takeover action (by Majors of Juniors) to confirm that they have gone back to being relatively inexpensive. Soon, I think, we will see from takeover activity, and some huge gains from discoveries, that the Juniors are cheap enough to start buying them aggressively again. (I plan to contact Frank Barbera, and ask him to look at the argument in this posting.)

CATALYSTS - which might MOVE the Juniors 1/ Takeover bids, from the Majors 2/ Consolidation in the Junior sector (esp. Silver) 3/ Explosive Move in Gold; Over $1,000 per oz. I finally got around to listening to this weekend's broadcast: per FS: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0126-3b.asx Includes an excellent discussion of what to look for in a Junior: + Very much from an institutional investor's Point-of-View + Does talk about charts or GIP points - that's OUR edge !

I AM A "NOISE" TRADER - harvesting those brief surges from results or aggressive promotion I own over 30 miners and explorers. Some are only small postions left over from water-testing exercises in new stocks over the last year or two. I dont recommend so many, but I watch my portfolio carefullly, watch for signs of outperformance. When one runs ahead of the pack, and then the voluem starts to slow, I will sell it. I then reinvest the proceeds in more Juniors, or sometimes in Hk property. Fortunately, I have had few big losers, and this form of trading, sell my winners, after their momentum flags, has worked well for me over several years.