drbubb

LOL. Well I think you are blind! I make a very good living trading, and an important part of my success is the ability to interpret charts. This one is obvious and important. The HPI indices look like a Moving Average (lagged a bit) of the BBI index. Are you sure you cannot see it? It certainly worked on the way up! And it has worked on the way down in the USA. For the leading role to work now in the UK, in what should be a falling market, we will need to see: + A very swift upward move in the builders (unlikely now, but we saw this in late 2005), or + The beginning of a big slide in UK house prices

Looks like the "dead cat bounce" should be over. How up-to-date are the prices? Can you give us a calculation as of end-October?

Yes, I believe that is possible. I think they would want a minimum account size of C$10,000 or maybe C$20,000

Most people have trained themselves to ignore bearish news articles. So you should be okay

MYTH EXPLODING ... so Central London is different, is it?? Whodathunkit?: the wealthy are losing confidence in bricks and mortar as an investment. There has been a big drop in City bonuses... http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2759795.ece QUOTE House prices fell for the first time in two years this month, sending a shudder through millions of homeowners already hit by rising mortgage repayments and more expensive borrowing. The outlook for homeowners is likely to worsen with news that the wealthy have lost confidence in bricks and mortar as an investment. There has been a big drop in City bonuses being used to purchase prime property in Central London and in the popular second-homes areas, triggering fears of price falls in the South West, East Anglia and the Cotswolds. Today’s figures will increase the anxiety of millions who have banked on ever-rising prices to fund their old age and pay off mortgages. To add to their misery came a new warning from America that Britain would not escape the fallout from US as the property market there went through its worst recession in 16 years. Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University, who forecast the end of the dot.com bubble in March 2000, told The Times that the slow-down would start in London. . . The amount of City bonus cash flowing into prime London property and into second and third homes will fall by 60 per cent to £2 billion in the coming year, according to one of the country’s largest property agents. This will lead to at least six months of falling prices in Central London, predicted Savills, the estate agency, which specialises in selling houses worth £1 million and more. Also at risk are the Cotswolds, the South Westand parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Kent. Savills gave a warning that the top end of the property ladder and the second-home market could be hit hardest because financiers, accountants and lawyers no longer saw property as a good buy and were more likely to put money into hedge funds. Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research predicted that the credit crunch, combined with five interest rate rises in just over a year, would cause prices to fall for the rest of this year and into early 2008. But it suggested that the housing market would shrug off the difficulties within a year and that by 2010 annual growth would be back at up to 7 per cent because of an imbalance of supply and demand. = = Now where are those exaggerating sacks of VI spin when the reality comes spilling out?? Some EA's should now be chewing some tough crusts of humble pie on this news.

RIGHT. from the "Major Transformations" thread:

Sure. Those looking for big falls in the major indices will need to be patient for a while. But falls are being reported in the indices without big delays... Both sales and rentals softening Primelocation.com: Prime London sale and rental prices decline for the second consecutive month Average prices for prime London property for sale decline for the second month in succession, down 1.3% and wiping over £14,000 off the value of the average London home. The market for prime London property to rent witnesses a drop in average rental prices monthonmonth, down 0.8% in September 2007. However, stock levels have hit record levels, up 9.6% since August 2007. [spotted this while looking for a new place to rent - looks like Assetzzz and the BTL brigade may be wrong with their forecasts of rising rents] /see: http://www.primelocation.com/priceindex/ 2/ House prices fall for the first time since 2005 as buyers get the jitters By OLINKA KOSTER - 28th October 2007 House prices have fallen for the first time in two years. The downturn comes after months of declining sales and increasing uncertainty among buyers. The value of the most expensive homes is cooling most quickly, with larger falls hitting wealthy parts of London, Hampshire, Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire. . . Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, the housing intelligence business which carried out the survey, said: 'The fall over October is not unexpected. 'After several months of weaker buyer confidence, falling levels of demand and declining sales volumes, prices were bound to be affected.' Hometrack said decline was likely to be focused on the areas which have seen the greatest price rises over recent years. The 0.1 per cent fall in October followed two months of stagnation in house prices /more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...in_page_id=1770 - ENJOY the slide.

LandRegistry prices are THE MOST DELAYED. Chances are, those are transactions where prices were agreed in June or July.

(a big slowdown is showing up in the mortgage lending figures now - and they tend to lead also) Sharp fall in UK mortgage lending A clear slowdown is under way in the property market There was a sharp slowdown in mortgage lending in the UK last month, says the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). Gross lending dipped by 12% from August to September, to £30bn. Although lending was still higher than in September last year, the drop from month to month was larger than is usually seen at this time of year. The CML said it was another sign that the housing market was responding to the five increases in interest rates since the summer of 2006. "We have been expecting a slowdown in monthly lending levels in line with interest rate rises," said the CML's director general Michael Coogan. "In the coming months, we expect to see monthly lending levels dip below their 2006 levels for the first time this year as rate effects are exacerbated by the recent liquidity problems in the mortgage market," he added. Slowdown The CML said that mortgage lending usually dips by just 5% between August and September. However, September was the third month in a row that mortgage lending has dropped. The CML's figures are very much in line with those from other market commentators such as individual lenders and estate agents. Their regular surveys have all shown a slowdown in prices, sales or new mortgage approvals over the past few months /more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7050277.stm

Up-move starting?/ Some of the U-stocks now have good bases in place. We could be set for a good-sized upmove

From what you described, the actual price was agreed some time ago, so the valuation is not up-to-date

I find this very hard to believe. How recent are your valuations? In Hong Kong, we have access to sites like... this: http://evalue.hangseng.com/eng/val01.asp Where you can do quick and up-to-date valuations. And work out important parameters like: Value per Square Foot. Illustrative Valuations Property== Value Usesf / GrSf : perSf TC blxx hiF 2,070 0560 / 0729 : 2,840 TC blxx hiA 4,020 0940 / 1220 : 3,295 TC blxx loF 1,630 0481 / 0646 : 2,523 TC blxx hiC 2,070 0560 / 0729 : 2,840 ===== == 9,790 2541 / 3324 : 2,945 Is there anything like this for London?

London House prices already down by 10% as falling prices gather momentum Article by Toby Serter Tuesday 23rd October 2007, 00:05 The full extent of the housing slump has already begun to take effect and 9 out of 10 London estate agents are owning up to a very significant fall in house prices. The full extent of the UK property market correction may not be realised until at least 2009 and experts say that London has already fallen by an average of 10% - in some areas, house price falls are as much as 17%. Leonard Svenssen, magaing director of City Bank says “We are experiencing a drop off in house prices due to the global credit squeeze and the fact that interest rates have really started to bite”. Arnold Harris of Moving Home says “The National Estate Agents Association is reporting that 90% of their registered agents are reporting falling house prices in London and in fact sellers are being urged to drop their asking prices by a minimum of 10% but still it isn’t enough to tempt buyers back to the market to buy”. Some experts are saying that the London housing market has already fallen by at least 15 – 17% and that the capital will not see any improvement until at least the Spring of 2009. “The global credit crunch has become a bit of a cliché” says Ron Alerman, chief economist at homesforyou – “the truth is, is that there has been a massive crash in global funds due to the enormous number of defaults in the US – the UK however, is not far behind. According to the International Monetary Fund Britain's housing market faces a devastating slump. In its twice-yearly report on the state of the global economy this week, the IMF warned property prices are overvalued by as much as 40 per cent. /more: http://functionpix.com/index.php/article/L..._momentum/1631/

this chart looks familar somehow doesnt it?

BACK BELOW 100. ominous! Date: -TW-- :1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx/26.80 /FTSE x4477 Jul29 360.75: 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45 aug31 347.25: 482.68 928.5 1157.0 1782.72 473.50 4824.4 180.01 6303 127.86 sep28 275.75: 383.29 748.0 964.00 1436.16 474.50 4006.0 149.48 6467 103.48 Oct19 251.00: 348.89 667.0 971.00 1280.64 470.50 3738.0 139.48 6528 095.66 After A HUGE 19% DROP in September !, Another -7.6% down in 3 weeks

Sure. Newly rich (nouveau riche) like trophies, but they are not totally brain dead. Once they see prices falling all around their trophies, and a weaker sterling, it will eventually dawn on them that they are mugs. Besides, the Rich Feast in London : is almost over. The brilliant lifestyle they are seeking, will soon look less brilliant for all kinds of reasons, but mainly because of a slowing economy, and rising political tensions

Great Panther (GPR) has fallen back again. Nes needs checking, but it could be cheap here

To be a good trader, you need to understand crowd behaviour, and learn to trading against an "unthinking and unblinking consensus." = = = Market Psychology : a good balanced podcast from Peter Day http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/inbusines..._20070920.shtml Forever blowing bubbles? (with much discussion of property, in the US and UK) In this edition of In Business Peter Day takes a look at why market bubbles occur and then go bust with monotonous regularity and why we never learn to spot the trouble before it happens. Among our experts are two brothers, one and economist and one a psychiatrist, to explain how human behaviour plays into these cycles of booms and busts = = = Meantime, the Builders Index, also suggests a crash is ahead Explanation: The HPI indices (pink lines) should soon follow the BBI index (green) lower, and within 6-12 months should wipe out those 2005-7 gains (assuming the BBI stays down.) If the BBI falls below 100 (and stays there), then the pre-2005 gains are at risk too.

Some foreigners are too rich, and too late... so they spend their money based on out-of-date assumptions. But dumb-rich investors will not go on buying blindly for much longer IMHO You are not the only one trying to cash in on their naiveity

Look at the charts of the UK builders. and it will be clear this present drop is the deepest in over 10 years. Their charts are much more predictive than the indicators you have mentioned. Just look at the same indicators in the US, and it will be perfectly obvious which work. If you are still bullish on UK property, you are probably in denial (of present reality)

Wonderful lagging indicators. Let's bring this on, lower the water levels, and see who is swimming naked

The 4 largest Silver traders are short 130 days of global silver production. That's a massive short, and you cannot find anything like it in another commodity market. Some would say it is evidence of manipulation. They may be right, but it certainly shows the Silver market has unusal dynamics, and may be prone to shocks and sudden price moves

(I liked this comment on WW): Kokopelli wrote: Barley, Problem being that as they take a loss, it isn’t just a loss on their balance sheets, the homes they have repossessed flood a market that is in decline. When you mark to market a home and there isn’t really much of a market, the real values start showing up. So any one who bought say after 2000 or maybe even 1995 may find that when they need to refi or sell that the real value of their home is below what they owe on it… Can you say “Negative Wealth Affect!” or maybe you like the word “Deflation” better. There will be no short term fix to this problem. Houses are not investment vehicles, they have maintenance and ownership costs. They are places to sleep and eat and keep warm or cool down. They are a place to store your stuff. They can not really increase in value faster than the incomes of those who live in them do. Everything else is a mirage or a wish and a hope. There really is no such thing as prospering by living beyond your means. The consequences in buying something you can not afford is that you have to give it back and take a hit on your future at the same time. Nothing is ever truly free. @:

MORE EVIDENCE of Whopping price cuts in the US =========== "Ramsey Su who closely tracks San Diego real estate indicates that lenders with REOs are cutting prices 20% off of previous selling price. This of course would totally wipe out second lien home equity mortgages, and a nice chunk of the 90% loan to “value” deals from the Bubble heyday. He also makes the following remark, with more here. 719 REOs in San Diego during the last 4 weeks, comparing to just 1,239 sales reported so far by the MLS for September, are we going to see over 50% REO prevalence next quarter? And another report from northern Virginia on $46 million in distressed property going under the gavel at 20% off of previous prices. Miami condos being auctioned for 50% off." /winter watch: http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1133

The Silver Short : heavy and concentrated