drbubb

that's great. Some very useful reports there. Are there any particular co's that you like now?

Date: -TW-- 1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx /26.80 /FTSE x4477 Jl/29 360.75 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45 jul13 334.75 465.30 969.5 1167.0 1861.44 453.00 4916.2 183.44 6717 122.27 Big plunge late Friday. Meantime, FTSE soared, so the adj.index got hammered. It has fallen back to the levels of ... mid-Nov. 2005, when the UK Builders took off. There should be support at about BB-110/112, which means the entire "last gasp" rally could be retraced soon. A fall below 110, if sustained would signal some real trouble ahead, perhaps within 2007.

Interest is beginning to heat up once again... as those behind the "Kisses" Musical position themselves for a fundraising in September or October.

Sudden Slump in Confidence Among Homebuyers" The Times: Bovis banks on summer and autumn sales after a slump in homebuyer confidence Bovis, the builder of upmarket homes, has reported that demand for its properties has all but dried up and that average sale prices are stagnating. Analysts said that Bovis would be forced to scrap its declared target of raising profits by 10 per cent for 2007 as a result of a sudden slump in confidence among homebuyers.

Recent closes: date 1.39TW BDEV= PSN- BDV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Idx / 26.80 /FTSE x4477 J/29: 501.4 , 993.0 , 1158-? 1906.6, 443- ? : 5002.0: / 186.64 6608/126.45 (end June) TW: 360.75 Jul09 476.8 , 991.5 , 1164- , 1903.7, 458.25, : 4994.2: / 186.35 6713/124.48 - J09 TW: 343.0 Jul10 460.8 , 973.5 , 1150- , 19xx- , 449.75, : 4903.2: / 182.95 6631/123.95 -J10 TW: 331.5 Date : WMPY- / TW--- : Ratio = est.WMPY 10.07: ?????? / 331.50 x1.39 = 460.8 09.07: ?????? / 343.00 x1.39 = 476.8 = = 28.06: 507.00 / 364.25: 1.392 27.06: 513.00 / 369.00: 1.390 26.06: 525.50 / 378.75: 1.388

Who will sell you that insurance??

If it doesnt work, it will fetch next to nothing in an auction

Good discussion with some Junior Miners on this week's GoldSeek Radio, part 2: http://radio.goldseek.com/ Yorba Starfire Minerals Valgold Resources Sunvic? Haywood's Jeremy Raffle ?? Go straight to 17 minutes in, if you like to skip the prior stuff

FROM the website: "By filling out the below form, your payment would be registered as an investment. Until completing the required budge_, you can ask reimbursement the %90 of your money, but after that date, you cannot change it for one year. The remaining %10 is for the insurance, advertising & other expenses of this website. If I could reach to a successful commercialization, you would receive 10x of your payment, otherwise by selling the facilities in an auction, I will distribute the income to the investors, in respect to their payments." = = With respect, you need to: + Improve your spelling, + Offer people a return, not a haircut of 10%

ON BEING A SILVER MILLIONAIRE - Different Definitions ============= Now let us revisit the amount of U.S. millionaires in the beginning of this article. If we have 2.6 millionaires in terms of paper and it takes ten million in cash at today’s price ($13 per ounce) to become a silver millionaire, then all we need to do is cut our 2.6 million by a factor of 10. This would give us 260,000 with a ten million equivalent that have the paper necessary to purchase 715,000 ounces, yet less than 1400 will be able to find sufficient silver to qualify as “silver millionaires.” Simply stated, there is almost 200 times as much paper available to purchase silver than silver available if we limit our analysis to the millionaire category only. This of course is looking from the U.S. perspective only, and in today’s interconnected world, there are investors worldwide that are participating in the silver market and many more will be participating in the future. If the inflationary pressures continue to build as the U.S. “dollar” continues to be printed to service the outstanding debt obligations, it is quite possible that the number of paper millionaires will increase over time. However, the ability to become a real millionaire—a “silver millionaire”—will become more and more difficult. ...see: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/m.../2007/0702.html

YEP. You have a nice fractal there! It is normal to have the last drop "just break the trendline" before shooting higher. That cleans out the last sellers

((interim data)) -- from time-to-time date WMPY BDEV= PSN- BDV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Ipt: Gilt% / 26.80 /FTSE x4477 M .. 628- ? 1091-? 1366-? 2095- ? 460- ? : 5640- ?: ?.??% /210.44 6621/142.30 J/08 573- ? 1035-? 1245-? 1987- ? 428- ? : 5268- ?: ?.??% /196.57 6501/135.37 J/21 543- ? 1005-? 1207-? 1930- ? 453- ? : 5138- ?: ?.??% /192.xx 6596/132.xx J/28 506- ? 997 -? 1165-? 1914- ? 443- ? : 51xx- ?: ?.??% / 18x.xx 6570/13x.xx J/30 503- ? 993 -? 1158-? 1907- ? 443- ? : 5004- ?: ?.??% / 18x.xx 6608/13x.xx (end June) + 503 + 993 =1496 +1158 +1907 =4561 + 443 =5004 /6008

Builder Bellwether vs. Nationwide & Halifax Indices Chart BBI charts, intraday : http://www.webspawner.com/users/ukbuild/index.html Spline's website etc : http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_builders_index/ Video on YouTube... : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNeCetQeLLU similar HPC thread : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=13797 similar on GHPC... : http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...showtopic=20540 STR-ing in 2001: threads: GHPC : HPC XXX HISTORICAL DATA=== R-Move WMPY BDEV== PSN-== WLB-=== BBY-== : Tot.Ipt: Gilt% / 26.80 /FTSE x4477 J'05 412- 0 603- 0 692- 0 1138- 0 340- 0 : 3185- 0: 4.60% /118.84 4852/109.66 F .. 471- 0 672- 0 778- 0 1234- 0 320- 5 : 3475- 5: 4.74% /129.66 4969/117.02 M .. 447- 5 660- 5 768- 2 1186- 5 313- 5 : 3374-22: 4.74% /125.90 4894/115.17 A .. 389- 9 593- 5 676- 5 1076- 9 303- 5 : 3037-33: 4.53% /113.32 4802/105.65 M .. 431- 8 660- 0 750- 0 1147- 0 322- 0 : 3310- 8: 4.39% /123.51 4964/111.39 J .. 439- 2 716- 0 780- 2 1135- 5 330- 0 : 3400- 9: 4.19% /126.87 5113/111.09 Jl . 426- 5 720- 0 800- 0 1150- 5 348- 0 : 3444-10: 4.29% /128.51 5282/108.92 A .. 410- 7 707- 3 829- 0 1139- 0 331- 5 : 3416-15: 4.14% /127.54 5329/107.14 S .. 428- 0 756- 0 858- 0 1166- 0 328- 3 : 3536- 3: 4.26% /131.94 5478/107.83 O .. 409-10 804- 0 862- 0 1124- 5 305-14 : 3504-29: 4.32% /130.75 5315/110.13 N .. 438- 2 906- 0 1105-0 1300- 0 336- 0 : 4085- 2: 4.19% /152.43 5423/125.84 D .. 480- 0 986- 0 1258-0 1450- 0 356- 0 : 4530- 0: 4.12% /169.03 5619/134.68 ((gap in data here)) R-Move WMPY BDEV== PSN-== BDEV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Ipt: Gilt% / 26.80 /FTSE x4477 J'07 538- ? 1182-? 1386-? 2287- ? 417- ? : 5810- ?: ?.??% /216.79 6203/156.47 F .. 569- ? 1178-? 1396-? 2160- ? 454- ? : 5757- ?: ?.??% /214.81 6172/155.82 M .. 636- ? 1105-? 1406-? 2115- ? 477- ? : 5739- ?: ?.??% /214.14 6308/151.98 A .. 587- ? 1086-? 1347-? 2085- ? 469- ? : 5574- ?: ?.??% /207.99 6449/144.39 M .. 628- ? 1091-? 1366-? 2095- ? 460- ? : 5640- ?: ?.??% /210.44 6621/142.30 date 1.39TW BDEV= PSN- BDV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Idx / 26.80 /FTSE x4477 J/29: 501.4 , 993.0 , 1158-? 1906.6, 443- ? : 5002.0: / 186.64 6608/126.45 (end June) TW: 360.75

JUST GOES TO SHOW... You have to be willing to sell when the hype levels are high - like near the time of the Dines interview. Uranium continued to rise, but starting near that time, the shares started to drift. They could continue to drift for many weeks, and I will be in no rush to buy aggressively. Having said that, I am nibbling at a few stocks

a few years out of date, but interesting nevertheless

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this posting was originally made on an HPC thread: post#51: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...47404&st=45 QUOTE There's another way to look at it. Anyone who bought in the last 2-3 years was an irresponsible and reckless gambler, who was bailed out by irresponsible and reckless increases in the money supply. So maybe it wasnt the "smart" that won, it was the "lucky" and the "reckless". But those who stay in the game now, look even more reckless, bordering on stupid As to houses just being just houses: You cannot look at it that way anymore. Thanks to the big Ponsi scheme that has grown up around UK property, they have become important objects of speculation. If you buy now, you are paying a huge speculative premium, which you may not get back. If you are willing to risk that, for the sake of "owning a home", you'd better realise what risk your are taking, and how much your "emotional" satisfaction may costn in the future (DO you want to be a "debt slave"?). To fail to make those calculations would be reckless and rather stupid. Some want the market to accomodate their own life plans. It doesnt do that. At the moment it is responding to temporary demand for a "pension asset" amongst the boomers are approaching retirement, and think they are buying a secure asset for their future. They are making a huge mistake. Demographics show, that this type of demand will peak anytime from now until 2010. After that peak, the number of demographically driven buyers will decline, and continue declining for many years. Believe me, that will have a HUGE impact upon UK property prices. The 20-somethings and 30-somethings are very lucky, and few realise it. Itr will be cheap to rent for many, many years. They should find the property of their dreams, rent it, and sit back and enjoy cash savings of renting. The time to buy is years away, after further rises in rates, a sharp price fall, and sometime out there (2010-13?) when it will again be cheaper buy then rent. REALITY is a bitch sometimes. But it is important to recognise what it is. Else the bitch will bite you.

Uranium May Rise to $250 a Pound Next Year, SXR Says http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=canada Uranium may more than double to $250 a pound next year as demand for the nuclear fuel outpaces production, according to SXR Uranium One Inc. ``We'll see resistance at around $200 to $250, where utilities will take some pain,'' Neal Froneman, Toronto-based SXR's chief executive officer, said in a May 11 phone interview from Johannesburg. ``Within a few weeks, you'll see it go to $130'' and $150 later this year, he added. ...

Make sure there is something deliverable that you can give them within a year or two. If you meet the expectations of the initial investors, it will be easier to raise more money

no real volume. looks like a ramp job to me spot firm:

pay attention, maybe, to where those who respond are located, and how they are funded

(these might be worth a look): Indium (In) -used in flat-screen monitors and televisions. Luke Burgess of Goldworld.com, which explains why in the past five years indium’s price has jumped ninefold. He suggests taking a look at small-cap indium explorers Avalon Ventures (TSX: AVL) and Niblack Mining (TSX: NIB).

welcome- again. I'm watching gold closely now. Many think we have seen the seasonal peak, and are set for a dull market or even a slide as the market heads towards the usual summer doldrums. I am not so sure. This year, I think we have potentail for a slingshot-effect, with thsi recent pullback, enough to scare out many people, who will them be prepared to buy it, if/when it turns around and breaks out above $700. So far, the gold stocks are drifting lower on light volume. Frankly, i find this bullish. So gold shares may be an area you may want to look at, and visit some of the otehr trheads on GEI on thsi topic.

The Boomers Break the Deal My grandfather's generation made a deal with my children's generation. It goes like this. If you will pay into Social Security and pensions so we can retire now, we agree to die on time, or at least in a predictable manner. The Boomer generation is going to break the deal. We are going to live longer, and maybe a lot longer. And that is going to cause problems in pension plans and government retirement programs all over the world. Medicine as practiced today is still of the hammer and nails approach of the past 100 years. Our tools are better today, but the approach is the same. We wait for something to get bad and then we try and fix it. We get regular check-ups to try and diagnose any problems, and our ability to diagnose is getting better, but we still miss a lot. We work at doing what we can to prevent sickness, but our tools are not as good as we would like - basically, diet and exercise and a few medicines that try to prevent disease. That is getting ready to change. Image scanners are becoming ever more fine-grained. Just a few years ago it was 32 lines per inch. Then it went to 64, 128, and now 256. 512 is only a few years away. Recognize that pattern? It is going the same way as chips and storage media. Within 5 years we will see a new generation of scanners that will make today's obsolete. Within 10-12 years we will be doing scans that will allow for much more detail in full three-dimensional color. They will be seeing the early formation of plaque and tumors and have the therapies to deal with them before they become a matter of life and death. They are building chips which can diagnose all manner of disease by simply putting a drop of blood on the chip. Today, the chips can only diagnose a few diseases, but within 15-20 years it will be a thousand or more. Chips will be cheap and you will be able to get yourself checked often. Hopefully they will allow them to be hooked into your home computer and notify your health care provider if there is an issue. It will be a hypochondriac's heaven. There are almost a dozen new technologies for dealing with Alzheimer's, most of which are already in human trials. Sometime in the next decade, Alzheimer's and dementia may be a thing of the past, assuming you take charge. New genetic therapies are cropping up on almost a daily basis. Mice have 99% of the human genome, so we experiment on them a lot. There are mice that cannot get fat, no matter how much they eat. Mice that do not lose muscle mass. Couch potatoes of the world, unite! Mice that live 30% longer with the addition of just one hormone, the same hormone that is in our bodies. They are growing new liver cells from adult stem cells. The list goes on and on. Of course, these are not yet in human trials, and skeptics suggest it will be a long time before they do go into human trials. I am not so sure. They are using adult stem cells in Brazil on patients with a certain type of very nasty disease caused by a bug bite, which creates problems in the heart that show up later in life. It is 100% fatal once it starts. For some reason, Brazilian doctors decided to inject adult stem cells into their patients. Taking adult stem cells seems to slow or halt the effect on the heart. They don't know why it works, but the point is they are doing it. Ad hoc human clinical trials. What will be the next thing tried? And where? We may not see a lot of the human trials in the US with some of the more intriguing therapies, but it is my bet that we will see them elsewhere. Living 30% longer? No fat? No muscle loss? Someone, somewhere, is going to start the testing. I am not arguing the pros and cons of making humans guinea pigs (and I am not volunteering), just noting that I think it will happen. In short, we are going to start diagnosing and fixing things before they go wrong. Let's say for the sake of argument that by the end of the next decade it is likely that the average person will live 5 years longer and by 2025 will be living 10 years longer, numbers that Dr. Michael Roizen (YOU: The Owner's Manual) says are reasonable guesses. You can make a real case for those numbers. Some would say they are conservative. We are not talking immortality. Just that the diseases that kill people today will be dealt with. More people will live long enough to die of simple old age. Living longer is a very good thing, so why should I worry about that? Because I see the potential for black swans. Today, if you make it to 60, the odds are that you will live at least another 20 years and the last surviving spouse will live for 30 years. What if that goes to 25 and 40 years? My friend Ed Easterling at Crestmont Research did some very interesting analysis a few months ago. You have saved and invested, and now you want to retire. You decide to take out 5% of your total portfolio to live each year and increase the amount for inflation, so that you can maintain your lifestyle (a number which a surprising number of investment advisors would say is ok). Let's say you are an aggressive older couple and decide to stay in the stock market because that is where you are told that you can get the best returns over time. And you know that you have the probability of living 30 years. On average you are going to get 7-8% or more, right? Ed calculates what you would get for 78 different 30-year periods since 1900. Let's say you start with a million dollars. On average, this has been a good bet. You could maintain your lifestyle and end up with $3.6 million. You've been pretty conservative, right? Wrong. Because the returns you get over the next 30 years are highly dependent on the P/E ratios at the beginning of those 30 years. Let's break up those 30-year periods into four quartiles of beginning valuation. If you start in a period when P/E ratios are in the highest quartile, you find that over 50% of the time you end up penniless, on average within 22 years. Here's that data from Ed: XXX Where are we on valuations today? You go to S&P's web site and you find that core P/E's are 17.4, at the upper end of the second highest quartile. Notice that even when starting with the lowest-quartile valuations that 5% of the time you ran out of money within 23 years. Want to take a lifestyle bet that you have a 1 in 20 chance of losing? As Ed points out, it will not be fun to have to go to work as a WalMart greeter at 80. Now, let's throw my assertion that one of the surviving spouses is going to live on average 10 years longer. The failure ratio, meaning that you run out of money, gets a lot higher. And it gets worse if you use a traditional mix of stocks and bonds, because bonds lower the overall return. The point is that retirement planning is going to get a lot more difficult. And we are going to have a generation who will be in their '70s when they realize the good news is that they will live longer but the bad news is that they can't afford it. And the bad news is that they are going to want the government to step in and help. And by that I mean they are going to need more tax dollars. Let's think of some of the implications. First, we already know that the large majority of US citizens have not saved enough for retirement. But for those that think they have, they may be budgeting for a future that is going to be a lot longer than they plan.

The authors of the narcissism study propose reasons for the trend that include, "a 'self-esteem movement' that emerged in the 1980's," and current technology such as MySpace and YouTube, which encourage attention-seeking. Looking for causes, one might ask: which came first, narcissism or MySpace? Or did they arise together as a result of something else? A study co-author, W. Keith Campbell of the University of Georgia, suggested (facetiously?) that narcissism could have benefits, like "auditioning on American Idol." And in a beautiful example of a societal fractal, Campbell inadvertently described the recent housing bust and Congress's reaction to it when he spoke of narcissism: “Permissiveness seems to be a component.” “A potential antidote would be more authoritative parenting. Less indulgence might be called for.” American culture does in fact display a broad variety of narcissistic traits,as other dominant cultures have in times past. A few things that come to mind are: SUVs, McMansions, American Idol, Hollywood's celebrity culture and television's relentless images of beautiful people, mansions, spa vacations, shopping sprees and private jets. Question: is a relentlessly upbeat financial self-esteem and a strong sense of entitlement connected somehow to a new national policy of unilateral preemptive military strike? Is this what Christopher Lasch meant in 1979 when he described the, "narcissistic personality of our time," in his book, "The Culture of Narcissism?" ...more: http://www.elliottwave.com/features/defaul...id=3015*time=pm