Jake

Could well do. Mid 20s, perhaps lower, could possibly be a good buying/ trading opportunity. Given the recent explosive move upwards, this has to be considered possible.

'Out at 17.90'

(just pulling your leg)No doubt mine will be pulled, too.

Nice to see you back btw. Not missing your kimchee with becquerrels, then? I could send you some?

Recorded for posterity....

I have to admit to selling basically the last of my GM silver earlier today, now holding only my physical (still enough Kg's;- perfectly happy)

Blimey! Buying opportunity coming on. Hi-Lo silver.

I have arranged to swap another smaller amount of silver for gold. I am now value-wise over 50% in gold again. I still hold a shed load of silver. Let's see how it will fare tomorrow morning when the LBM will be closed.

Well, gold is at 1574 this morning, straight up 9 dollars and silver is 48 odd. Ratio at 32.23. Thinking about it 'value wise' I hold way more gold, silver has really only been my shtf plan/emergency money/barter/ teotw-whatever hedge so I shouldn't complain or worry about swapping. I am rather fond of it's function to use if necessary so as not to use the gold which would be way too expensive. I still think there is a lot of credence in that. Silver is very handy. Just thought I might try and get rid of a few or the bigger blobs of it. Darned heavy.

Thanks. Will read.

 

EDIT: Read. Sprott truly is a silver bull!

He is really just following his mentor, Ian Gordon, and he says so himself. Fiat has had it, buy gold and silver. End of story.

Jake

 

Do this at your own risk. In all fairness, even during the Hunt run-up there was a little break inbetween. We didn't really have a break now for 8 months. So that is somewhat concerning. But if gold shoots up now, which quite a few commentators that I listen to seem to expect, any silver lagging/correction might be very subdued. Maybe silver would go down to $45, and just stay there, while gold could go to $1,800, bringing the ratio back to 40:1. Then silver could play catch up again. Would this be tradeable? Maybe almost not, also depending very much on your transaction fees, especially if we're talking coins or similar here.

 

For me, as an actual Silverfinger, the question here is whether I'll swap a little more, turning myself in a true Goldfinger again. Even if I did so, I'd still have a lot of silver left to ride the ratio down (20:1, 15:1, 10:1?) should it happen.

No fears. I dont know if it is possible to do at the moment anyway (UK) and I will only be doing bars if I do, and only if I can get a good price and convert to gold. That's a lot of conditions. Plus my 'junk' just arrived today, lol.

To be honest I am not too fussed about missing 'a' top of sorts. I am prepared to wait for higher prices. Nothing has changed except the ratio. But thanks again. Your charts rock and scream and shout. It's been a lot of fun.

Terrific article btw.

The Hunt for the Gold:Silver Low

http://gold.approxim...Silver_Low.html

Fofoa has written eloquently about silver being out of a job for use as soft money when paper currencies have now have filled the position. I accept his reasoning (and my own beliefs) about this and have swapped 1/3 of my silver to gold (enabling me to acquire twice the gold ounces by virtue of silver's massive gains). I think silver has a long way to go and will ride it some more but will be incrementally swapping for gold along the way.

Think this is a very good post, Mr Schaublin. I will do the same, maybe 1/5 of my silver.

If someone traded now at 32:1, swapped again at 60:1, and then again at 14:1, if he/she got that lucky and would have the stomach to do this, that'd be one of the trades of the century. And I am not a trader...

OK. You got me. I will try this with 10%-20% of my physical. Nothing ventured...

Rise of Gold ETFs Raises Concern of Price Collapse

 

Friday, 29 Apr 2011 01:34 PM

 

The explosive growth of precious metals-linked exchange traded funds has prompted some market watchers to warn that those shiny investment vehicles could increase the speed and depth of a future crash.

 

That sizable outflow, which he said could be in the range of 200 tonnes to 300 tonnes -- or 10 percent or more of the total holdings of gold ETFs — could cause a sharp drop in the price of gold to $900 or lower.

 

The last time that gold crashed, in 1980, it dropped by 60 percent in one year, and that was before ETFs, said Williams.

 

 

http://www.moneynews.com/FinanceNews/Rise-Gold-ETFs-Raises/2011/04/29/id/394590

I suppose anything could happen to the price of (paper ETF) gold. Nadler has been so full of shit for sooooo long I wouldn't trust anything he said, though he always 'says' it so well.

ETF's may well have been designed in order to crash the price of gold or whatever. Who cares? Only those with ETF's happy to cash out and buy equities. Numpties. Unless you change paper for physical you ain't got nowt that can't disappear in a puff of smoke. There isn't enough metal to go around. We all know that.

Then again its mot a matter of being able to afford gold.... as if it were an item of consumtion. More a matter of swapping a depreciaitng currency for

Sure, but do the 'masses' have masses of currency to swap? Not many people have 50K for 50 or so ounces. 50 or so ounces of silver on the other hand...

Warning! Silver Will Fall by 66%

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/04/29/warning-silver-will-fall-by-66.aspx

But

''Silver is in a bubble, but I'm not predicting an imminent fall in its price. With silver at $50, who is to say it can't reach $100? I can certainly imagine that scenario. Once irrationality and speculative mania take hold of a market, there is no measuring how far the excess will run (except post-facto). It's impossible to time the bursting of a bubble; it could happen several months from now, just as it could take several years. My best guess is that silver prices will decline significantly by the end of 2012, with multiple interest rate hikes by the Fed as the catalyst. But that is nothing more than guesswork; the only thing I am reasonably confident of is that the price will ultimately decline by roughly two-thirds.''

 

 

 

I'm starting to think we may look back on this point in the future as being the point where the masses caught on.

Can 'the masses' afford gold from 1500 dollars or near on 1000 GBP per ounce though? They might just (continue) to look at silver though. It might not be 'cheap' but it is 'affordable'.

I wonder how many in the UK could afford a few ounces of gold/month out of their paychecks? Not many, not with all the other pressures they are facing.

 

I still hold more silver than gold (in value)

Well, you had me fooled! Did the drop from 21 to 9 shape the exit strategy in your mind or was this always on the cards? (If yes, why didn't you just go straight to gold?) Were you factoring in silvers probable outperformance to gold?

Still you floored me with your admission above re your silver to gold value. I am well overweight silver to gold but only weight. Nowhere near value. And I genuinely like silver.

Hope you had a nice holiday btw. I feel certain that you slept well...Time to update those charts please, Mr Silverfinger.

Out of interest, on GEI, is there anyone planning on buying silver today?

 

 

Yep! Me. I bought some a bit of 'junk' yesterday. Discipline. When it crashes, there won't be any, just like last time.

Ratio at 30.87:1!!!!!!!!! Time to 'nail it'?

Did we just see 1:1 ratio? (Kg to Oz...that is)

Even last year this seemed like a pipe dream.

Where next?

Feeling dizzy! If you look at 5/8/10yr charts, that is a parabola isn't is?

Silver looks mental.

34.53 ...that ratio.

In defense of Errols strategy, I will say that a good dealer will often give you a discount if you are a regular customer. If you ask,and if you you have " relationship" over time they will even cut you special deals and offer you something not usually for sale. At least mine do. I would rather shop at the local grocers than go down the chain supermarket. If you want to sell, you'll also pick up good deals. Regulars also queue jump/ getpriority.

No, I not going to say...

I am going to be offline until after Easter.

 

Don't let them steal your eggs, and watch silver!

Have a good trip! Hope you are going where there are no tsunamis/earthquakes (Scotland- ) Remember my offer of a guided Japan trip for 'a few ounces'. If it all goes well for silver, you may pay in that currency.

Thanks for all your comments.

Jake.

PS When is Easter?

Spot on - and that's the bit that really worries me. My eldest lad is a good example. He's a decent lad - very hard-working and reliable (on the job front) and entrepreneurial too. I flatter myself that because he's had a nice upbringing he has mentioned a couple of times that he very much envisages that his future will include marriage and kids.

 

It's the good ones that will emigrate - let's face it no other country wants the (how shall I put it?) 'remainder'.

BAB, Juat out of interest(as this doesn't include me) what are the credentials needed for emigrating? Are they only taking professionals or the 500,000+ cash account holders, age limit etc. Who can emigrate, and who can't? Maybe this needs a thread with different conditions set out for different countries. I think we used to have one years ago here, but it might have been another forum.

By 'remainder' I guess you mean 'undesireables'?? The old, the chavs, the poor, the uneducated, etc etc? Is this about right?

GSR now 36.85, well done on this call GF.

 

When the ratio was about 70:1 you wouldn't have thought it possible, the lines on that chart looked too steep. So a great call.

Looking at how the blue has fallen like a dagger down to the red line now 3 times, is the general feeling to swap for gold or hold hold hold down to... 25? I have been absent a while following these and other threads what with all the action here in Japan.

I find your 'houses are an investment - consider them as an investment - always consider what happens if the price goes down so (presumably) never buy a house if there is a risk it might go down in price (i.e. NEVER buy a house) etc. philosophy' to be a 'funny attitude'.

 

You must spend your life worrying about money. "Paying a mortgage in a house that has negative equity is a burden: financially and psychologically" It doesn't have to be - it's only a burden if you're obsessed about money and the price of the house and 'have you lost money (ohhh NOOOOOOO!)' and so on. My nephew bought a bigger house 3 years ago. Almost certainly it is worth less than he paid for it. He has a wife and two kids, another on the way. He doesn't feel burdened financially - he just pays the mortgage. He is not burdened psychologically by his negative equity - he is quite sanguine about it and realises that moving up (he wants a bigger house in a couple of a years time when no. 3 needs his/her own bedroom) will be easier if prices don't go up.

 

Some people just live their lives and enjoy them.

 

As for extrapolating what has happened in Detroit to draw some sort of absolute conclusion about buying property in general - can't see the relevance myself unless - and I guess this is true - you are hovering over the UK waiting for the armageddon you are convinced is going to occur.

I think all Bubb is saying is that there is a time to buy and a time not to buy. 'affordability' is merely a chance to throw money away-if you can afford to do so. We all know the benefits of feelgood my property is my castle, but he warns for some it might turn out to be a dungeon. What might be affordable today, may well become unaffordable tomorrow...

I admire your boldness BasB but for me (at least) that attitude might be stupid as...

I don't see anything wrong with 90% mortgages. It is the salary multiples and interest rates that are important. It seems pure, undiluted madness to me to take on a 25 year, massive, debt with variable interest rates.

 

We're in a situation now where, if base rate went up to 5% and mortgage interest rates went up to 8%, millions of people who have taken mortgages out in the last 10 years will be completely stuffed.

 

To take out a 25 year variable rate mortgage now - with base rate at an all time low - is surely evidence of insanity. Yet, where are the experienced voices warning youngsters against taking mortgages out on these terms?

 

The sound of silence is deafening.

Now the drugs don't work,

they just make you worse,

but I know I'll see your face again..

A song for the 90% mortgage generation!

It looks like they might need to announce extra before June judging by this;

 

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/paul-othe...anke-2011-03-02

Like this?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Summers/mar012011.html

1. There will be no QE 3.

2. Bernanke will be dumped as Fed Chairman.

3. Kansas Fed President Tom Hoenig will be the next Fed Chairman

Nice to see the gold:silver ratio breaking 40 this morning, currently at 39.57.

 

I think this GSR chart shows a lot of the patterns currently in play. Sorry haven't updated it for a while, but the target looks like it could be below 30 to me.

 

So we have crashed through that green line and headed to the red one below? Brain is saying 'time to swap S for G, time to swap S for G' yet it keeps going...Actually its one of my 'better' worries right now.

I believe it might.

 

For those who have lived through the torrid experience of seeing silver crash year after year, until 2009,

even this rally is seen with a lot of skepticism. Silver is currently 51% above its 200 DMA and is bound

to return some day. This could be the 28$ level. There is a lot of inexperienced money flowing into silver at this moment, and there is bound to be a big profit taking opportunity some time this spring.

I believe it might too. But in the meantime the G:S Ratio is at 39.5 to 1. How low can it go before it bounces back? Listening to the FSN roundtable on silver last week almost everyone is long term bullish but short term almost bearish on silver.