Jake

Looking at the chart and at Alf Field, I'm inclined to think we're still in 3 of 3, not 5 of 3. Banister is showing an almost non-existent 4 of 3.

 

Though, all the talk of gold has me nervous, and these past few days feel like too much too soon.

 

I'll add, however, that Ben Davies on KWN recently stated that though sentiment for gold is high, participation is narrow; people talk about gold, they don't own it.

 

I note Bannister doesn't mention where he thinks it'll fall to either. I imagine they are both right within different time frames. Sort of fib. wheel within a wheel.

Yes, I feel we are within 3 of 3 too. Alf has been right a LONG time and I like his thoughts and essays. It is hard to fathom how he made them when he did...serious respect.

Take your point about people not really owning gold yet. At least the big buyers. And such a small market... When they do the price could really move.

Nice to compare and contrast to Alf Fields numbers from 2003 originally, here updated:

update my original "back of the envelope" template to much higher levels, as follows:

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

Once again, you can pick your number for the gain in FIVE and multiply it by $2,500. The numbers become astronomical and can really only be possible in a runaway inflationary environment, something which many thinking people are suggesting has become a possibility as a result of the actions taken during the current crisis.

I recommended reading Alf Fields a long time ago. Just google and enjoy his writings.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Banister/Aug112011.html

''Wave 1- 300 to 1030

Wave 2- 1030 to 681 (October 2008 lows)

Wave 3- 618- 1805 currently, 34 Fibonacci month cycle. *Likely high is 1862-1900*

Wave 4- Due up next… a multi month consolidation

It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold.

Sound familiar?

---------------------------------------------

Thoughts?

You guys are going to love this..

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/100pc-mortgages-return-market-tele-2687694686.html

 

Yep, the 100% mortgage is back!

 

In N.Ireland of all places

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-moves-to-sell-rent-92000-foreclosed-homes-2011-08-10?Link=obinsite

Nice post, which i think gets to the crux of it. What is primarily an investment forum "should" discuss what actually is in the economic world, and what might then realistically come from that..... not what should be.

What? Like 'out at 17.90' or banning Fitkid for mocking you wanting the argument in log?

I think my sig has been taken the wrong way by several people since I started using.

 

It was a saying from my youth, whilst living on a s**thole estate in the midlands, when, whatever you tried to do, you always seemed to get shafted, while the better off always seemed to succeed. (Of course in reality, we didn't really help ourselves much at that time). I think BaB has a similar background, maybe that’s why we sometimes see things a certain way.

 

The sig was really meant to convey my anger and frustration that things are not as they should be now.

 

If you read my posts pre 2009, you will see I was a true deflationist (I even STR'd in 2007 (for the second time)).

 

It was only when I saw the lengths TPTB went to, to maintain themselves and their friends, I realised just how much the odds are stacked against us, and how much they are stacked in their favour.

 

Others seem to think that it means we shouldn't complain or something along those lines. It doesn't and was never meant to convey that.

 

It was meant to be taken as, you can’t beat the system, but if you know what they are doing, perhaps you can use that to your advantage in your trading etc.

 

Anyway, I think I will remove it.

 

 

 

No offence Jake, but my “version of reality” stated this time last year that we would probably only see 5% falls for house prices in 2011, when practically everyone else here was predicting a big crash.

 

I think that particular prediction is closer to the money than any of the others.

 

Again with the sig, it doesn't matter what "should" be, it just is what it is.

Fair points and I'll take it on the chin. So, apologies. I agree that TPTB will stop at nothing to protect what is 'sacred' and we will see how it pans out for them-esp on housing and the pound. Indeed it has been proved wise to play ball with the system, especially over the last few years. I see it as being suckered into buying/speculating stocks and overpriced property with low rate teasers, affordability. Gold tells the story (reads the market) better than I though.

But I will give you I feel a level of frustration of late hearing the serpent sirens wax lyrical on property.

Best wishes and apologies,

jake

Excuse me, a troll?

 

I've been posting here for several years and have never been accused of being a troll. (Some other things yes, but never a troll).

 

Just because some people try and give a more balanced account, rather than fall into the group think mentality that some sites tend to, that does not make them trolls.

 

It seems you and BaB are disagreeing, that’s OK.

 

You both have your own opinions and, in reality, you are probably both right in some respects and both wrong in others.

 

This is not HPC, I have always found that other opinions are, usually, welcome here.

 

I have always found your posts very polite.

 

Please do not try and shut down discussion by accusing genuine posters of being trolls just because they don’t agree with you in one area, (especially when they probably agree with you in many other areas).

I think you box your corner very well but 'doth protest too much' your 'open mind' and BaB, honest hodman or not, 'is wise enough to play the fool'. But I am well versed in literature rather than finance and my intuition gets me in hot water from time to time. So I may be wrong on both counts. With a sig like yours though... I am more inclined to think the the system is beat rather than you can't beat it.

I have shared my anger with the looters on another thread. But they are merely picking up crumbs of what they are locked out of compared to the real looters. And when the middle classes join in the chorus of disenchantment, we will see some real anger perhaps and the 'system' will be laid bare for what it is.

Your opinions btw are welcome here, I am sure, and well founded in one version of reality. But you could be right, so..an awkward bow. Dont let me stop you posting, John Doe.

I guess we're not going to agree on this.

 

My eldest son is nearly 23. He has about 15k to his name. I'm trying to imagine the conversation ...

 

"Dad, I've decided to invest my 15k (all the money I have in the world - acquired from savings accounts my parents put money into all my life, topped up with birthday and Christmas money from parents, grandparents, aunts etc - topped up with a recent present from an Aunt who was terminally ill) into gold."

 

 

"Hmmm, so you're not worried that the gold price could halve tomorrow? Or that it can be an extremely volatile market and, when you want the money for something useful (as opposed to owning a bit of shiny metal) that you might not get back all the money you put in? I'd say son, with the benefit of a bit more knowledge of how the world works than you, that you would be nuts to risk your money in that way. Better off hanging on to it until the day you want to settle down and use it as a deposit on a house ... or use it to start a business."

Sometimes BAB...I do wonder if you are a troll. I've never really accused anyone of that before. But you and JD alight my suspicions. If you are, you are very good. Sorry if I offend.

So it now looks like we have a green light for ZIRP to be held into 2013:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-14472741

 

ZIRP + Improving job market = no further meaningful nominal falls imo.

This isn't how it played out/is still playing out in Japan.

What's this about 'improving job market'-are you talking the UK?

I see more unemployment, less and less growth, inflation in food and energy, deflation or flatlining of nominal house prices, continued falls if measured in gold, etc etc.

The US in particular gave Japan a lot of stick over the years in managing the 'recession' here. Actually the Japs have managed it remarkably well, so far, so much so that the Yanks and the Brits and all and sundry want to follow the ZIRP and walk the problem down over the next decade or so.

That may or may not be possible. I don't know. But I think unlikely with the DEBTS on the table and being beholden to the bond vigilantes. At least the Japs owe their countrymen-and they are getting less and less thanks to Fukushima and years of deflation taking its toll on the population (lack of new members-no marriages-no real jobs). They also had loads of lolly in the kitty which has been a soft cushion. US/UK/ EU has sweet FA.

I imagine the UK property scene going into a long slide anytime now.

Stagflation then.

AFAIR, during the 90's gold was seen as a dog, it had been falling in price for years and years. The only people buying it were the kids trying to look like rappers (guess they are laughing now, if they didn't pawn it that is)./

 

Oh and houses were really cheap mid 90's too.

 

Didn't it just keep on falling into the early noughties?

Well it started to fall off in 96, which was the signal for buying property, I guess.

2000-01 was the low.

Yep !

 

 

Might be a good idea.

Especially, if you can buy a home with profits, and hold onto core capital

Think I might be tempted to buy a home today with gold if I was in the US and it suited my timeline. Unfortunately I am not and it doews not. So i have to sit on my hands and see what happens.

Only if they were barking mad. If I had done that 30 years ago I would never have bought a house and never have acquired the only bit of money I've ever acquired.

 

 

 

 

Again, if you'd been watching it over the last 30 years you would never have bought property in the mid 90s and missed out on spectacular property gains.

I think if you had been paying attention in the 90's-to gold as well as property-you would be singing from a different hymnbook now. Sure we all must live somewhere but even so...have a look at the chart '95-'11.

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx'>http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

Moreover property may be soon to fall but I don't think that is on the cards for gold in the same way.

The best strategy would be to have chopped and changed along the way. You'd be mortgage free now, probably.

Bit of a yo-yo out there!

Considering the last 24 hrs and silvers stubborn unwillingness to move may this be a buy? All eyes on gold it would seem. Or will both plunge?

WTH. Just bought a bit more... 30 something is ok.

Posting privileges are suspended for a few days. Cool off a bit and come back posting in a more civil manner.

I have to say rh, that this is rather unfair on fitkid. It's like sending off one of your centre forwards when they have hit a patch of form. Fitkid is a rooney, a tevez but has a heart of gold (ho ho).

it was wrong of the other guy to wind him up about the bilberries (a great thread in itself) and at least Fitkid speaks passionately about what he believes in...he may well be right about the paper profits too.

A good manager/moderator would be wise to his antics/personality.

Bring him back on please. Gei needs his commentry, esp over the next few days IMHO.

GS at 45. Silver isn't moving. Plat 1722! So far this is a gold only story. Safe haven/ panic.

Well probably 1764 at this rate.

Imagine waking up in the UK today!

Oh dear, there she goes...merry Christmas 1768

Might get that spike to 1800.

Well probably 1764 at this rate.

Imagine waking up in the UK today!

1751

I would be buying silver here, or even platinum if the VAT could be avoided. I dont have that much cash at the moment but if they manage to knock the silver price back big time, I will be buying some coins from CID.

That VAT malarkey is a bit of a bitch. Still, I tested the metal for sale in London today and got some no problem. I just hope my VAT is used for some good, free school luches or something.

My eldest son is 22. "Son, when the time comes to think about buying a property for the first time, make sure you bear in mind the relationship between the price of houses and the price of gold."

 

"Okay Dad - I've had a look and, just now, houses are pretty cheap compared to the gold price - way below the average in fact."

 

"There you are then son, now is the time to buy."

 

"But Dad, I can't afford a house because I haven't got enough gold/money or money/gold to buy one?"

 

 

 

I didn't realise - and nor did anyone else at that time - that the correct course of action was to sell your house, buy gold, wait, wait, wait and wait a bit more until gold went up enough to make the waiting worthwhile, sell your gold and buy a house - and have a load of extra money too.

Right now I'm thinking of taking 100k out of my offset mortgage account and buying gold with it.

Maybe you should send your lad over to GF's to read a few charts...or else he may be repeating the mistakes of his father in the future.

I'm not having a dig at you here BAB, but I think you need to read the signs a bit better and ditch the 'common sense'.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair. It was average house prices in ounces of gold, it was 2004- it was 724, it was 2011- it was 162, it was knowing when to sell, it was knowing when to buy, it was a dead simple chart as simple as a traffic light, it was red, amber, green, not even fancy trading, it was buy and hold and rent, it was a....no brainer. It was posted 2 posts above this as if by magic. It was downloaded and printed off and stuck on the bathroom wall.

'If you get this one right laddie, you'll be a man my son' Don't follow leaders, watch the parking meters.

"Chinese boogie woogie adjustment" ?

What I wonder is, if Gold does go to $10,000 an ounce, how will people with gold be better off? What can a normal person realistically do with gold other than wait until things normalise again and then sell it for the new currency that comes in?

Cross that bridge when it comes, I guess.

 

 

I'm inclined to think we are near the bottom in home prices. They could spike down to 70 or 50 ounces but anything more is getting into rare/unprecedented territory.

Meaning nominal prices have bottomed but against a possible doubling of gold, real estate may well yet halve?

This is much as I am expecting for the UK, though I'd like to see nominal prices down 15-20% too.

Gold in yen is still a way off her old highs. So plenty of room for gold to rise here.

Good luck!

Great stuff pixel. Apleasure to have those two on gei. Roll on next week.