Jake

Land/ gold is the one as most core buy and hold bullion is in gold.

 

Romans, Do you have a link for NZ Land/Gold, also property in NZ general. Where are the 'good' places/land. Can foreigners buy NZ property/land?

Thanks,

j

Silver has become quite cheap again. I haven't bought more metal recently and was focusing on the miners, but I am somewhat tempted.

 

It seems the massive downward trend in the G:S-ratio since 1990 is still intact.

 

(I still can't believe how I nailed this chart a few years ago... )

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Isn't it time for another red line on that chart, almost verticle, taking the ratio down to 20 or below??

I know that there is still this funny notion of the USD as a 'safe' haven out there. But I think it's wearing off quickly.

This is the bone of contention really, isn't it? Will cash rush to the dollar and the gold 'crash' a la 2008-or far worse- before those dollars run to gold, the ultimate 'safe haven'?

Its like playing stepping stones as the stones behind you submerge beneath the water. My goal has always been to get to the other side. But it might be right for some to play it their way. The only trouble with this is that the rules may change along the way. Gold may well one day not be for sale, leaving you with a wad of useless paper. Or physical gold may not go down so much (premiums)/(scarcity)/(supply)/(refiners doing overtime), but paper gold get crushed sending physical even higher as the risk averse scrabble for a place on the liferaft.

It looks bullish for physical any which way you look as the end of the day the dollar is as done for as any other fiat. Prechter wants to move to gold when it hits bottom. I wonder about the liklihood of that scenario re physical. Maybe it is possible, I don't think I know...or want to take the risk.

Hi Jake,

 

Hope you and family are well.

 

Regards d2thdr.

Thanks d2. PM'd you.

I really recommend everyone to read this. There are some amazing (private) stories in it too.

Marvellous to read Alf Fields again after so long!

One wonders how Elliot Waves could be so different...Prechter/Fields...chalk and cheese?

Anyway a great read there.

Well how about this everyone? Japan residential and commercial down for the 20th year running. Depopulation and no immigration policies signal this beast will fall and fall. Enjoy!

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20110921a1.html

I just assumed Dom had too many subscribers again & was using his proven method for thinning the numbers

 

 

 

 

 

I agree GF

I'd push the boat out to 120oz and a few pieces of eight for that one.

Good to see someone has cash reserves left. I piled most of mine in a few years back.

So did Errol and a few others, I imagine . But there are some of us who are still earning fiat to convert into money. Others are sipping pina coladas. Or reading.

House next door to me has just sold for 50% more than summer 2006 price.

The cost in gold of the average house over the past 40 years is 275 ounces. We're already below that. But that doesn't mean we can't go any lower. At the peak of the market in 2005, the average UK house cost an unprecedented 700 ounces. In London it was almost 1,100 ounces. At the bottom of the market in 1980, when gold spiked to $850 an ounce, the average UK home cost just 50 ounces. It also spent several years around the 50 ounce mark during the 1930s.

Fischer is convinced we're going back to 50 ounces for the average UK home. I have a slightly more sober, long-term target of 100 ounces, although I wouldn't rule out 50. Once the ratio hits 100, I'll look at rolling my portfolio out of gold and back into housing.

I'm confident we'll get there within the next three years. Gold need only rise by a third from here (from £825 to £1,100 an ounce), and house prices fall by a third (£168,000 to £110,000), to give you a 100:1 ratio. Both look very possible given the underlying fundamentals.

Or, as is more likely in my view, gold could double from here to £1,650 per ounce, while nominal house prices stay the same. I'm sure those up top would rather see this latter scenario, with nominal house prices remaining unchanged. People will believe that the so-called value of their houses is unaffected, so they won't be too upset. All the while the value of their money is destroyed. But we have so few savers, who cares about that? As one of my correspondents puts it, "nominal house prices remain unchanged, so the muppets are happy".

Now at midway point between your target when you penned this and todays 150oz tag, Dominic. What do you think now?

London seems to be in a world of its own, for the time being perhaps.

House next door to me has just sold for 50% more than summer 2006 price.

But are you happy in it?

(sorry)

Are they his own?

Is he not just a front line puppet, with sparkling 'ologies to give credibility?

I have no idea. Probably. But he is the representative. And I want to hear the views, regardless.

BTW when does the show start? Getting late here.

Wait, did I miss it? Shucks! Must have been brill,zzzz.

Hmmm, +$60T in worldwide money start trying to squeeze into gold. Nothing speculative about it, just a precautionary measure. We haven't seen anything yet. Gold is just doing what it has always done.

 

I think the spectacular correction will be the one from $5,000 to $2,500, before taking off towards $10,000. After that, we'll see. Maybe they'll try to peg the Dollar again, but $10,000 is still way too low for that. So, it's going to be very interesting to watch this pan out.

 

Popcorn.

What/How on earth a 5000 to 2500 correction would come about is beyond (my) comprehension. What would the recipe be for that in the climate we are going into? This little blip is causing enough consternation as it is, it would seem.

I took Robin Griffiths for his buy 'around 1700' yesterday (1710) and picked up some silver, too. Also in the back of my mind is Venezuala's little move. Hear Jim Rickards on KWN of what that could mean if other countries join in. I don't suspect the West and the BIS will enjoy the prospect of releasing their gold to Russian, Chinese and Brazilizn banks. I dont really understand these margin call things but I do understand a good discount. ... so I'd be happy if they did a few more. I think a lot of time can be wasted fretting about a few quid and whilst it is still on the shelf, I'll be buying.

I'm looking forward to hearing Bernanke's thoughts and actions. One day he might even decide to say 'oh and btw we are revaluing gold to 7000/oz. Whatever. It doesn't really alter the big picture one iota as far as I am concerned. As you say, its going to be interesting to watch this pan out over the next few months/years.

 

PS Who is Cassius?

A tragic villain.

I wonder how many of them want to move?

 

Could be a nice prison so, if there is no requirement to move, and if they can afford the mortgage, then, as it is probably cheaper than renting the same property (as it is in the vast majority of the UK now) then what's the problem?

 

Just asking.

You're starting to sound like an estate agent in disguise again, Mr Doe...or Cassius.

Lovely views. But Renzo Piano has played an unfortunate role in designing projects just at the end of the economic cycle which inspired them. Kansai Intl Airport for one. A stunning work of art and a beautiful floating white elephant of a project. What a legacy! He's like the kiss of death.

Kunstler has a lot to say about these high rises.

Shame about the name, too. The Shard. Surely there's enough time to plaster the thing in solar panel glass micro?

This is quite worrying:

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=133930&sn=Detail

''A sobering thought too for physical gold holders is that any government legislation aimed at protecting the central banks and their gold holdings from a growing move to take delivery of physical could also be extended to individuals' gold holdings. Could confiscation of gold be a step nearer again?''

if other countries also decide to have their gold repatriated. Nixon pt.2 with a twist. 'sorry, we don't have your gold but can pay with our dollar treasuries-which we have aplenty' dastardly snigger...

Is it true the UK has 99 tonnes of Venezuela's gold? I wonder which other countries gold we have in 'storage'?

1908. People are going to have a shock in the morning.

1898 this morning, Oct 23. Where's my little correction? Still only Tuesday, I suppose...

 

Is a man's home his castle or prison?

Haha! Are you asking a self exiled Brit if he considers a home a castle or a prison? Right now, in the UK, I'd say a ball and chain. So like yourself I'm happy to wait and wait and if it never happens then I shan't be too bothered as a return (to the UK) is looking less and less likely. Still a cheap, well located property might be useful for a number of reasons in the future, bought for cash profits on gold. Beats having a mortgage! I like GF's target area.

Jake, I'm hoping for that pullback also. I've decided to add the Sprott Trust (if I can get it with a reasonable premium) to the physical I have in-hand.

 

If gold is still up when the Western markets open I think this may be a good put buying opportunity.

Fingers crossed & Good luck! Up she goes for the time being...will it reach 1900?

How's that US house price graph looking now? 90 odd? You 'lucky' buggers. I wonder when UK's time will come. Mind you now grinding under 150oz so we are there behind you if not 'shoulder to shoulder'. Lol. I keep having to pinch myself and remind self 'it's far worse this time, far, far worse, so sit back and let the metal do the running' Still it leaves the throat parched and wondering when people will consider piling in, cash buying with gold/silver profits. 80? 70? 50? 40? Much talk about gold 5000 out there now. At the moment, talk, but so it was back in 2005/6/7/8 etc.

All the best!

Gold up $25/t.oz in the first 2 hours of trading...

I'm hoping this is top buyers and we'll have a pull back by Thursday. But I'm sure of nothing. Fiat is falling so fast! Puts a new spin on 'the markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent' cash buying less and less.

Great charts, average house price of 2 kilos of gold would be the target for me.

Why 2 kilos?

25 years, I would say. And only if you had your capital invested in gold.

 

Keep in mind that this is the biggest financial crisis ever. We could easily see prices below previous lows, while interest rates might still be absurdly low at the time. This will be the time to buy on a fixed rate.

It didn't take long from 200 to 150 did it? If the lows are taken out or close, I wonder when that will be? This rate it could be sooner than I bargained for. Do you have a time forecast, GF? Also have you updated the US HP graph? Can't see it.

just ordered from cid yesterday

delivery to Belgium -no problems

Thanks! Will check again. Last time I heard only UK and Germany had not yet reached their 'limits'.

My 2 pennies worth. "HPC" is still possible even in nominal terms. More probable is a grinding Japanese-style deflation in house prices over a decade or two. That said, the crash has occured, and is proceeding, in terms of gold.

 

 

Gosh! I'm going to agree with JD on this. Though I would say that I don't expect a Japanese style deflation in house prices over a decade or two. I'm sure the gov would go with that given the chance. Is there time? I don't think we've all got a decade or two of playing time. So..I expect a Japanese style grind until the system/currency collapses 2014-16 or debt kills us with inflation and deflation rocking our little boats. Is this out of the question? Are not the Euro, Dollar, Pound, Yen and a load more fiats on quiksand now?

Crash may come in gold/silver as price rockets for another few years. 3000-5000 gold would be just fine, I guess, (ch)av houses at 80oz each or thereabouts.(presently 160 or so).

I'm sticking with gold and silver, my woodburner and water purifier, bicycle, musical instruments and geiger counter for the duration, probably.