John Doe

Wow, good luck HB. Sounds like you have done your sums and thought about the future (i.e. the land etc) and with no debt, that's a great situation to be in. "Debt free is the way to be" Of course, as you say you might have got it cheaper in the coming months (or years), but if you have found exactly what you want then, as I have said before, it doesn't really matter.

Well, we've just had the biggest recession in three generations, and it fell. We have also forgotten second homes (which I think should be taxed to the hilt by the way). It's not just the mega rich that buy them. Lots of the student flats near where I work have recently gone SOLD. (It's that time of year when the students are about to come back, and prices are down ~10-15% from peak). More interesting is the amount of people looking for a nice bolthole in the highlands, something for the weekend etc. I have been told that the price of these fell quite significantly over the last 4-5 years, and a few people at work have started to look at these.

Thanks, (I think ) I really am not an EA and am just trying to put balance to the argument. In fact I'm considered a bear by people I know (Dr Doom was my nickname for quite a while (pre 2007 )) I actually think (and have said many times) we are in for a very grim winter and expect another 5 to 10% nominal falls.

Good finds that man, so the 120,000 new homes IS net. The growth in population of 470,000 is ALSO net. So I make that ~ 470,000-120,000 = 350,000 and at ~2.3 av per house = shortage of ~30,000 houses per year. So, why all the reports of an extra 150,000 needed per year? (perhaps a backlog, or maybe it's all in Scotland ?)

And immigration and more divorces and people choosing to live on their own and old people where one partner has dies etc etc. That's the thing, the new houses figures are not net. The figures don't include the number of houses that are demolished, no longer fit for habitation etc. Apparently, it takes ~100,000 new homes per year just to stand still, and ~ 100,000 more to keep up with projected population growth. (The figures were actually more, but I'm being conservative). I have posted links about this before, but here are some others. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11002344 A more recent one is here. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14572051 I have also posted about the shrinking number of people per household. Whichever way it is put, the figures always say the same. More people, less houses. More students from abroad = more BTL opportunities Again, either way you look at it, more people, less houses. Of course, that's not so important at the moment, as credit is in short supply, but it is putting some support under (falling) prices and, more importantly, storing up trouble for the future. Watch out when those taps are turned on again.

Er no, that actually means more people in the UK. Just because you don't like the facts, it does not make them go away. And what's with the ex EA c**p again? I am not, nor have ever been, an EA. I suggest you get your facts right before throwing around slanderous accusations . http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4058&view=findpost&p=224700

And, while the number of new homes being built keeps falling, the number of people in the country continues to rise, at an alarming rate. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14663354

I was being a little tongue in cheek, and as i have said before, I actually agree that the next 6 (possibly 12 months) will be grim. But I think inflation might just drop off a cliff next year (unless QE3 is much bigger than expected). My old deflationist tendencies are starting to re-emerge. Perhaps due to the re=emergence of RH?

So according to that, if you are a UK tax payer, then it actually makes sense to put your money into property (Well it does according to those figures ) Now now Jake, if I were an estate agent, I would have written.... In trying to provide balance, to an unbalanced site, one should not be accused of being an EA. That, sir, is the ultimate insult and I have a good mind to report you to the mods! PS Who is Cassius?

I wonder how many of them want to move? Could be a nice prison so, if there is no requirement to move, and if they can afford the mortgage, then, as it is probably cheaper than renting the same property (as it is in the vast majority of the UK now) then what's the problem? Just asking.

Yep, Election. (Coincides with the express headline too)

Right on cue, and it's not just landlords being bailed out now. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Ireland-mull-mortgage-reuters_molt-121866087.html?x=0 Coming soon to an economy near you?

Sorry DS, I'm cool, (it was meant to be a happy reply, what with all these opportunities, if I can get them at 50p, I'll be even happier!). I guess it's just all these negative waves about.

Very true Dr. B, and a fair bit of powder is being kept dry. I knew you'd know and as I was a touch sozzled last night, I thought I should mention my favourite Churchill quotation, when, on being told by Bessie Braddock MP: "Winston, You're drunk!" he replied "Bessie, You're ugly. But in the morning I shall be sober." Classic

Now who was it that first said "As the facts change, so too does my opinion". Churchill? As I'm sure you would agree, we have had (and possibly are still in) a full market crash. So, as I said on the UK house price thread about BDEV on Friday morning... When there are market moves like this, I change my target prices, what do you do? Looking now, I think I might grab some if they get near 50p (If I have any money left from buying my favourites that is ). Crash = Opportunities.

Indeed, until they ban gold (It has been tried before)

Oh there are plenty of magic bullets left. You are forgetting the huge mortgage write offs occurring now in the US and Eire, 50% debt reductions ARE occurring in over-indebted households. Then there is the true debt jubilee, And now comes Extreme QE! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14589325 Pah, hasn't fell anythinglike as much as the banks!

Actually, they are just reporting estimates from the CEBR, (who happen to have a very good record ). Just means they were asking too much before. A house is worth what someone will pay for it. If it doesn't sell, reduce the price. If you want to sell quick before the depths of this winter, reduce it more. That or keep it for four more years and sell it for 14% more Simple.

Looks like 3 regions falling slightly, all the others are up (although some rises and all the falls are mostly in the noise). London really swings it though >7% YoY. They are up in W.End of Glasgow right now, but that is because the students are returning. Guess this has an effect elsewhere too. Interestingly, they look at the capital loss when calculating total returns (looks to be a paltry 1.2%).

Looks like there has never been a better time to buy! (Well not in the last 35 years that is).

And yet, those rents keep on rising. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14572051

Free housing market report in Moneyweek. http://www.reports.dianomioffers.co.uk/partner/yahoo/Property_Report.dml?offer=113002&campaign=2412 A little bearish perhaps, knowing Moneyweek.

Let's hope so. I really hope the house price bubble days are over and the next time prices start to surge ahead of wages etc, I hope swift decisive action will be taken. (Note lots of hope there ). Quite. And interest rates are going nowhere for a good long while. Even the last two hawks on the BoE have thrown in the towel. All 9 are now voting for no change (One still wants more QE now, I expect more will in the coming months).

Yes it says it's June, we are in August

Of course, it is possible that these would have sold for > £625k in 2007?