John Doe

Indeed, there is a new development of 4,5,6 beds up by the reservoirs in Milngavie that all sold very quickly (a few affordable units too). They started well above £500k. (Some very much above this!) (Edit to say found this old advert £895k for the 6 beds!)http://www.s1homes.com/newhomes/2011010608372813.shtml Here is the link showing them all sold (just in case you don't believe me ). http://www.cala.co.uk/homes/development/Milngavie/Availability.aspx There is some rich money out there, but the medium to lower end (<£250k) are not moving in the same way. A couple of friends here, that STR'd about the same time as us, are now looking to buy in the depths of this winter. But again, they will be big places, not small, and they are a good 10-15% below peak, so with another 10-15% discount (which is what they are after) and stupidly low rates, I can see why they are looking.

Very true, and also in many other currencies too.

Are you sure about that? We used to have for example, MIRAS and boom bust policies (Lawson boom etc etc). There has always been political interference of some form. Agree regarding the US, although I would guess they are practically there now. Regarding affordability in the UK, IR's aren’t moving for years, and that's going to mean affordability remains OK for the majority. Look around, UK gilts are their highest value (lowest rates) for 50 years! You can now fix for 5 years at less than 3.7%! If (when) there is an IR shock, then, as I have always said, all bets are off. But, until then, the nominal low could well be in soon.

I know you use several indices and would have named you if I had meant you. Although, saying that I think that you were one of those who in the past ridiculed their methods and analysis, did you not? that aside, I was actually referring to the years and years of HPC comments slating rightmove (as I said once before). Rightmove have only recently changed their tune. For years Miles Shipside (spell?) was way way off the mark and I stand by the fact that they are a very poor component for any analysis. As for being "off-the-mark", it seems my predictions over the last year are closer to the mark than anyone else here (so what exactly did you mean by that comment?)

Hi Dr B. Do you have one of your graphs to show this? Interestingly on the last page of the Home.co.uk report was this snippet Nice!

Strange how all those that slated Rightmove for years because of its unrealistic data, (and all the “but but it’s asking prices” comments) choose now to splash it all over the place because it suddenly agrees with their stance. Rightmove has always been way out, on the way up, and on the way down. I think everyone is agreed that prices will fall over the next 6 months (and possibly longer), but to use Rightmove in any analysis is a risky strategy, especially when they start reporting massive jumps in asking prices as they do each spring. Home.co.uk have always had a better grasp, and always reported in a realistic (and genuinely bearish) way for many years. They were the ones constantly saying it wasn't sustainable, they were the ones that always said sellers were unrealistic. Rightmove, on the other hand were the ones always coming up with false reasons why prices kept rising. How quickly people forget.

Agree with the lag effect, but that is a known known (to coin a phrase) and due to the way the data is collected. However, the same lag will prob now see a rise over the next few months, but I can't see anything but falls for the next 5 or 6 months, (so with the lag, it will prob show as falls from maybe Oct to March).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/u-k-house-prices-slip-0-1-to-19-month-low-acadametrics-says.html Acadametrics report out. One of the most reliable as based on Land Reg. -2.4 YOY I think the price falls will probably increase during the next 4-5 months, but once this winter is over, keep a close eye on volumes, the nominal low might well be in by spring 2012. With the rates this low (3.39% now for a 5 year fix now), the LTV's dropping like stones (and even the return of the 100% mortgage), if the sun does come out next spring (ie gdp pick up and no major increase in unemployment) there might just be a quite significant pick up (in volume not price). Can't see any price rises for a good while after the nominal low is in mind you, more likely a few years of ~flat prices. However, as always, the best deal is achieved by getting the big discount just before the lows are in. Once that nominal low is in, bang goes the big reduction from the cheeky offer (just like 1996-97). Close examination of volumes etc will be important.

You guys are going to love this.. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/100pc-mortgages-return-market-tele-2687694686.html Yep, the 100% mortgage is back! In N.Ireland of all places

No need for any apologies Jake. It's only now I have seen how some others had been interpreting my sig. I had thought some were just having a dig before, but re-reading, I can sort of see where they were coming from. So, back to houses....... I would think that flats above sports shops in cities in the Uk could be falling in price a little quicker than those above bookshops in the near future .

I think my sig has been taken the wrong way by several people since I started using. It was a saying from my youth, whilst living on a s**thole estate in the midlands, when, whatever you tried to do, you always seemed to get shafted, while the better off always seemed to succeed. (Of course in reality, we didn't really help ourselves much at that time). I think BaB has a similar background, maybe that’s why we sometimes see things a certain way. The sig was really meant to convey my anger and frustration that things are not as they should be now. If you read my posts pre 2009, you will see I was a true deflationist (I even STR'd in 2007 (for the second time)). It was only when I saw the lengths TPTB went to, to maintain themselves and their friends, I realised just how much the odds are stacked against us, and how much they are stacked in their favour. Others seem to think that it means we shouldn't complain or something along those lines. It doesn't and was never meant to convey that. It was meant to be taken as, you can’t beat the system, but if you know what they are doing, perhaps you can use that to your advantage in your trading etc. Anyway, I think I will remove it. No offence Jake, but my “version of reality” stated this time last year that we would probably only see 5% falls for house prices in 2011, when practically everyone else here was predicting a big crash. I think that particular prediction is closer to the money than any of the others. Again with the sig, it doesn't matter what "should" be, it just is what it is.

Excuse me, a troll? I've been posting here for several years and have never been accused of being a troll. (Some other things yes, but never a troll). Just because some people try and give a more balanced account, rather than fall into the group think mentality that some sites tend to, that does not make them trolls. It seems you and BaB are disagreeing, that’s OK. You both have your own opinions and, in reality, you are probably both right in some respects and both wrong in others. This is not HPC, I have always found that other opinions are, usually, welcome here. I have always found your posts very polite. Please do not try and shut down discussion by accusing genuine posters of being trolls just because they don’t agree with you in one area, (especially when they probably agree with you in many other areas).

Wasn't 1980 the previous high? A 20 year fall? meanwhile Mortgage lending jump 22% in June. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14474238 (Albeit from a very low base)

Still think this winter will be bad, but next year, yes, the nominal bottom should be in.

AFAIR, during the 90's gold was seen as a dog, it had been falling in price for years and years. The only people buying it were the kids trying to look like rappers (guess they are laughing now, if they didn't pawn it that is)./ Oh and houses were really cheap mid 90's too. Didn't it just keep on falling into the early noughties?

That's really not likely in the UK (I recently read the number per household is actually forcast to drop over the next ten years). While it would make sense to me, (actually chatted with the in-laws about potential pooling of resources in the future) it seems for most of the UK to be unthinkable. Totally different mentality here.

Demand is relative, due to restriction of credit.

The number of people is increasing at NET ~200,000 per year according to latest figures. The NET number of new properties is way way less. (Estimates say we need 250,000 per year for 20 years, including all the ones we are losing each year).

I predict a riot?

Hi Dr.B. How is the Haliwide NSA data looking? Have you got a chart of the action since you started compiling the data?

Shot? Why? It is very true that there are a huge number of UK citizens who struggle by every day, living in shoeboxes with tiny rooms and no space, jammed together in what amounts to only about 10% of the UK land. Of course this has an effect. It's part of my reasoning when explaining why I think the UK market has some particular traits not found elsewhere.

Could be, the YTD NSA is 4% up!

Here it comes. THE GREAT DEBT JUBILEE spreads to residential Don't say we didn't warn you. First the BTL'ers were bailed out, now it's going to be the homeowners! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/ireland-weighs-debt-forgiveness-in-europe-s-worst-housing-market.html But heh, it's going to be called a "restructure" so it's not really a debt forgiveness!

Yes, that's very true.

Sorry, but I think you might still be missing the point. (Although yes, the main point is we all have s**t loads of debt). We, like the US, bailed out our banks, but that money is assumed to be coming back (for both us and them). It is because the UK banks are a much larger percentage of UK GDP than the US bank are to their GDP that makes the headline figure which includes this, look so bad. Hence the distortion (which is far far worse for Eire for example). When these figures are taken out, I think we are much more similar.