John Doe

I did say so far

They seem to have done exactly that so far

While it looks like the problem in Europe has been postponed for a while (again), if the EU does implode then there would be a flight to relative "safety". US usually, but if they follow the foreign money that has been flowing into London property, then it would actually bring yields down in the UK. Besides, UK has mostly very long dated debt, so it wouldn't be forced to borrow during any "panic" period, and if they did need to sell bonds during this time, they would get our nationalised banks to buy them as they did recently (QE through the back door). Also, they could always directly turn on the printing presses again. You can’t beat the system.

Ah, but the Titanic was not the QE2 (or should I say QE3 now!) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2009374/No-rate-rises-unemployment-drops-economy-grows-says-Mervyn-King.html You can't beat the system.

I don't know what the problem is, here, you can get a house for £10k http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Britain-cheapest-house-yahoofinanceuk-3448630172.html (just needs a lick of paint)

Nationwide MOM 0% Flat, for now. Not sure of the NSA figure. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/House-prices-flat-June-reuters_molt-3142278981.html?x=0 Edit** Full report here, with a few nice graphs at the end (NSA +0.6%) http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jun_2011.pdf

In other words, don't expect real rate rises for years.

Hometrack negative 0.1% MOM Now down 11 out of 12 months. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8600320/House-prices-fall-as-sellers-become-more-realistic.html

Ah, but that was before QE and the IMF's backing of the UK plan B should growth stall, inflation persist etc etc.. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13672752 You can't beat the system Stabilizers! Ha

Having put a few pounds on over the last couple of years, a slightly longer walk would be more benificial for me. I park my car ~ 1m from work specifically to get my daily exercise now (and free parking ). A similar walk to a station - work would be great.

We have friends that live backing onto the cut by the boatyard just down the road from that house. Lovely part of the world, great for cockling too! That train line is a small line from Exmouth to Exeter which terminates ~1 mile down the track. Small slow trains, not that often, and a nice walkway alongside, I guess it's far more bearable than a high speed line with constant traffic. Living near a train line can be quite nice, but having previously lived in Coventry for many years (finally escaping in late 90's), I think that there it would be the ONLY pleasure

Tempting, but Euro still way up above the happy old 65p area.

Heh, Im not that bad, just like to see both sides of the argument. To be fair, I have always said I thought there could be falls of between 5 and 10% down (nominal) over 2011 or so (originally made that estimate back in Oct last year), just not the 20% crash some expect.

Yes, I think it's now clear that the spring bounce was more of a stumble forward. Assuming the seasonal trends of the past couple of decades are followed, we could still see between 5 and 10% down YOY (nominal) by end 2011. Although, have to say it may take a little longer to get to the 10% nominal down.

Land Reg Prices up 0.8% MOM, down 1.3% YOY http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/House-prices-show-first-rise-reuters_molt-675670402.html?x=0

And quite a few investors it seems BDEV up 2.5% at 115.6

Well, not bad, but still only back to 2004 prices. But, let's not forget, N.Ireland HPI was way way bigger than UK average, as have been the falls since. The higher the rise, the bigger the falls.

Not sure, according to Lloyds (Scotland)who last week reported transactions up here are back to pre crash levels. Seen lots go under offer around by us over the last month or two (after a real stagnant period), with 2 new ones going SSCM within 3 weeks of the signs going up (prices about the same as this time last year, after a 6 month bounce, then a 6 month drop back). However, prices definitely down in the "less nice, but not really horrible" areas.

BDEV closes at 113.1, just 7 ticks from its 1 year high! Still, I wont be betting the house on them. Yep, who was it that said, "prediction is hard, especially about the future!" Although, they are just using Acadametrics data (which is one of the better sites), so it's not Acadametrics that are saying the prices will rise, rather a bunch of "home-owners" guessing. Like the comments btw

Nationwide boss thinks no rate rise till late Nov 2011, then only 2.5% at end 2013. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Nationwide-CEO-sees-no-UK-reuters_molt-1689326119.html?x=0

Bounced up to 12.1 now, threatening to go to 114 (PS I was only saying it had bounced back a bit (with the whole market this morning) I wasn't implying it would rise to new highs or anything) There wasn't here 30 years ago, it was shameful to be unemployed.

I'm not 100% sure, (maybe Bubb can confirm) but I thought in some areas, the number of foreclosures (and empty houses) was dragging prices lower and destroying whole neighbourhoods. The banks were writing off huge amounts and some "investors" were picking up places for 10c on the $. True, but then again, the big UK banks are letting people off large portions of their debt in Eire Whole market got hammered yesterday, BDEV back up to 113 this morning.

Well that is certainly a great way to reduce the monthly outgoings. If only I owned my own property outright, I’d save a fortune! So, back to the good old USofA, we said it could happen, we guessed it probably would happen, and now it seems, it is happening! The debt write off (reduction of mortgage debt for the "common" man) begins! http://www.marketwatch.com/story/illinois-plan-to-cut-mortgage-debt-is-making-waves-2011-05-23?pagenumber=1

Good post, sadly, there are estates like this all over the UK. Clearly some of the residents are, esentially, beyond hope. Yet some do get out and others try to do what they can and make up for their past, such as the ex alcoholic father looking for work and trying hard to bring up his daughter. There is no quick fix. That's an interesting calculation and quite telling, and that's with the costs assumed which would appear best case. A night out can easily cost £40 so there goes any savings, as you say, it's just surviving. It's easy to see how a few weeks without work mean debts building and then you need to add on credit card and loan shark payments. It can very quickly gets into a vicious cycle. Then it's quite easy to see why people just sign on instead. That's why I liked the Libdems idea of taking the tax threshold to 10k, at least there would be more of an incentive to work then.

I agree this policy (giving young pregnant girls flats etc) seriously sends the wrong message, is not sustainable and has to be addressed. But, have you not seen "Orphan Annie"? Poor little babe, another innocent paying for the faults of the parents, again. Instead, the Tory idea of hostels for the mother and child if their extended family couldn't support them could be a better option. As for drugs, that's a whole new ball game. ** Rant about to start ** The only option that's viable is to legalise and control it, whilst educating the population so they can make informed, responsible choices of what they decide they want to put in their bodies, and then use the ridiculous amounts of money (which they currently waste in a futile attempt to stop the trade) to help those with the issues that get them into the difficulties in the first place (as it's actually very rare that a person with no problems becomes an addict). *Takes control away from the gangsters *Lets the quality of the drugs be controlled so reduces deaths from laced product *Raises taxes *The “war” on drugs was always a non winnable war (e.g. see how well prohibition worked in US). *Takes away the idea of becoming dealers for on the sink estates - as you're correct in as much that the only "rich" people these kids see are the dealers. What then is the incentive for them to work at, or even attend, school? ** Rant over **