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Nenner Predicts - And often gets it right !


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Nenner Predicts - And often gets it right !
Charles Nenner has some d@mn good cycles
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(My broker suggested I take a look at this guy)

Back on 2/27/2009 he predicted a Major Low "within a few days":
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1020388644

CharlesNenner.jpg

Prior to that, he had said "Get Out! ... and stay out in 2008":
Charles Nenner Predicts 2008 Will Be a Bad Year for Stock Market ...
6 Dec 2007 ... Charles Nenner appeared on CNBC early Thursday morning, and announced his predictions for the coming year. While he predicts a stock market ...
http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/4055

About Charles Nenner
Charles has been the talk of Wall Street since accurately predicting some of the biggest moves in the Markets over the past few years. His newsletter focuses on various financial Markets - Equities, Bonds, Commodities - Oil and Gold - and Currencies - Euro, Yen, Aussie Dollar, as well as Economic Indicators - VIX, Payrolls, etc. Charles Nenner's system uses a unique algorithm that factors in multiple cycle movements. With international and institutional clients managing hundreds of billions of dollars, Charles' advice is highly sought after. He also provides media appearances and private speaking engagements around the globe.

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LINKS
His Website : http://www.charlesnenner.com/

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Get Ready for Dow 5,000: Market Forecaster (Nenner)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1544558215&play=1

 

"Stocks will peak in about a month, and then head south..."

 

5,000? "Can take 2 or 2 1/2 years" / ie. 2012-2013

 

"Standing aside. We do not have any stocks right now."

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Charles Nenner on Bloomberg.  / Friday, October 31, 2008

When you listen to this interview, you'll perhaps think this guy is nuts for suggesting he has developed a program that can predict markets up to roughly 30 years in advance. Perhaps he is (perhaps we all are.. I digress..), but his calls tend to be accurate. Kind of frighteningly accurate, actually.

In this Bloomberg TV interview, Mr. Nenner is predicting the stock market will hit a cycle low towards the end of November, which then opens up a longer term buying opportunity.

Bloomberg: Charles Nenner Sees Opportunity in Commodity Stocks: Video.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aU_Led6RikDc

Note: To view the video, click on the link towards the right side, under the heading "Related Video and Graphics".

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Great guy, not heard of him before and I agree with what he says about markets not being random and moving with a certain momentum which enables you to calculate into the future. I also try and not pay attention to the news and just focus on the technicals, but it's rather boring not to have any stories (even when you know when the news fits the market, not the other way around).

 

I've back-tested my work on the S&P and it did predict the July and October 2007 tops accurately which is why I'm confident of an August 27, 2010 top by this work (not my K-wave theory which now says Setpember 3, 2010) and then a new bear market.

 

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He's an all-singing, all-dancing sort of guy

Charles Nenner Sings "Young At Heart"

He hits mostly good notes here, like his forecasts

== ==

He doesnt always get it right.

Like me, he expected a peak in 2009, a bit earlier than it came:

Charles Nenner - Market's Next Move - 09/09/09

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DrBubb said:
Nenner Predicts - And gets it right !

He doesnt always get it right.

 

Have you ever wondered why we get a steady stream of "experts" (who most people have never heard of before) who then, when in the spotlight, turn out to have the same predictive powers as my cat?

Could it be that there are thousands of these people out there guessing and some at sometime get a couple of lucky calls right? I wonder.

 

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Have you ever wondered why we get a steady stream of "experts" (who most people have never heard of before) who then, when in the spotlight, turn out to have the same predictive powers as my cat?

 

Could it be that there are thousands of these people out there guessing and some at sometime get a couple of lucky calls right? I wonder.

His track record seems to be far better than Random.

If you get direction of the significant moves right 60% of the time, and employ good risk control,

you can make a lot of money.

 

I do not expect perfection. Excellence is plenty good.

 

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His track record seems to be far better than Random.

If you get direction of the significant moves right 60% of the time, and employ good risk control,

you can make a lot of money.

 

I do not expect perfection. Excellence is plenty good.

 

My point is if you have lots of people making random guesses it's possible to select those have great records of say 60%, 70%, 80% accuracy or even perfection but there next prediction is still just a random guess like yours or mine.

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My point is if you have lots of people making random guesses it's possible to select those have great records of say 60%, 70%, 80% accuracy or even perfection but there next prediction is still just a random guess like yours or mine.

I think my guesses are better than random.

But I certainly dont get 100%.

There is some value in hard work in researching markets IMHO

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Nenner Uses Sunpsot Cycles - But do they really work ?

 

zzzzza.gif

 

'Tis the Change that matters

 

table2.gif

 

As a separate test, we rank months according to change in sunspot activity and calculate average monthly returns for the S&P 500 index over approximately equal-size subsamples based on ranges of fluctuation in sunspot activity. As noted above, the average monthly return on the index over the entire sample period is 0.6%. The following table shows no systematic variation in returns across ranges of fluctuation in sunspot activity. If anything, results indicate that a decrease in sunspot activity may be more bullish than an increase in sunspot activity.

 

/source: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar-effect...-stock-returns/

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  • 1 month later...

Charles Nenner Sees Dow Falling to 5000 in Two Years

 

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Charles Nenner, founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, talks about cycle forecasting and his forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "On The Move" with Francine Lacqua. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

/See VIDEO: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62419728/

 

"still risky to be long gold"

"the end level we are looking for on Gold is $2500... but not right now"

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  • 1 year later...

Several Good calls here - but some big misses too.

He seems to get the stock market more right than other markets

 

On 5/23/2012 at 12:25 PM, DrBubb said:

He likes Charles Nenner's work, it would seem:

Episode #4 – Charles Nenner on Market Cycles and Scenarios

nenspy2010.gif

Episode #16 – Charles Nenner on His Cycle Analysis System

TNX-Bond yields x 10

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SPX - new comment added in pink

nenspy2010.gif

FXE

nenfxe2010.gif

"A major war with Iran will come in late 2010."

"In a war, oil could go to $300."

"Copper: an upside target of $3.75, can go to $4.50."

Episode #21 – Charles Nenner on His Accurate Market Calls

nenspx2012.png

"The US market looks pretty good, relative to other markets."

Episode #27 – Charles Nenner on His Market Cycles Analysis

SPX - new comment added in pink

nenspx2012.png

After a period of 'chopping around' he sees interest rates going sky-high.

"Buy dips in the TBT until Aug. 2012. Take profits at TBT-$41."

(This was a big miss, TBT today is $16.79.)

"Copper upside target is $4.81 - mid-April."

"Most commodities have had their run... Oil: good low: end of Jan."

"Wheat and Corn may challenge the old high, by mid-2012."

/from Podcasts: http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/podcast-page/

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MORE about that possible War

Compare two forecasts

March 2011 - "Dow to 5,000"

"We may not go down immediately, it could take two months."

Trigger : "Major war end of 2012, or 2013."

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From March 2012

??? old video ???

(Here's July 2011):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgDki_-Ux0M

"US going into deflation... We will have a major crisis.

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  • 2 years later...

(he keeps delaying his Gold bottom - Have we seen it, or not?)

 

Charles Nenner- New Gold Bull Market Coming Soon
Published on 13 Jan 2015

Charles Nenner, of the Charles Nenner Research Center, says the plunge in oil prices are not over. Nenner says, “It’s all in a sell signal and (the chart) goes straight down. If lines go straight down on a yearly chart . . . there is a major, major issue going on here.

On gold, Nenner says, “On the cycle front, we are looking for a low in gold, and that seems to be forming. We are looking for a new bull market in gold. . . . If stocks go down and bonds are already at very low rates, so it’s very dangerous to go into bonds. If you get 1% on the 10-year, you don’t want it. Real estate is coming down again because nobody is going to spend money. You don’t trust the banks; you don’t want to be in the monetary system, so you buy gold. There are some very good reasons that deflation is going to lead to a bull market in gold.

So is Nenner firmly in the deflation camp? The answer is yes and no. Nenner says, “We will start the whole inflationary process soon, but first we are going to have the scare of deflation.”

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  • 7 years later...

Financial Cycle Down, War Cycle Up – Charles Nenner

https://rumble.com/vt9zb7-financial-cycle-down-war-cycle-up-charles-nenner.html

QUARTERLY PREDICTION: Market Down for the next 18 months

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  • 1 month later...

Casualties Worse than WWI & WWII Combined – Charles Nenner

Charles-Nenner-3.1.22-pic-300x227.png  By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says his analysis shows the world is entering into a huge war cycle that could last for many years. Nenner says, “The war cycle is such that there is great danger for a huge war. . . . What I have been writing about is the big danger that Russia, Iran and China will get together.  China is watching how we deal with Ukraine before they start with Taiwan.  I think that is the big one. . . . The West is in disarray, and it does not have a line on where to go or what to do. . . .  This war cycle is going to be bad, and I’ll tell you why.  We do price targets on markets and war cycles, and if you look at the price targets, it tells me that the casualties are going to be much higher than in the First and Second World War.  So, it’s not going to be a joke.”

(more…)

China is watching how we deal with Ukraine before they start with Taiwan.  I think that is the big one. . . . The West is in disarray, and it does not have a line on where to go or what to do. . . .  This war cycle is going to be bad, and I’ll tell you why.  We do price targets on markets and war cycles, and if you look at the price targets, it tells me that the casualties are going to be much higher than in the First and Second World War.  So, it’s not going to be a joke.”

Nenner says his cycles are telling him the casualties in the next war could top 175 million.  Nenner also sees that world leaders are not taking this seriously and points out, “What’s going on in this country (America), what are they busy with and what is it compared to a nuclear war? —Nothing.  Even Biden’s decisions now are based on public relations.  If the United States were independent with oil, like it was before with the pipeline and like Trump pushed, we would not be in this situation that oil could go up another $50 per barrel.  It looks like now oil can go to $150 per barrel, and it can even get to $250 per barrel.”

War abroad is not the only thing to look out for.  Nenner says, “I think there is going to be a lot of civil unrest.  When Rome was burning, and we are talking about 2,000 years ago, the Senators were discussing if angels were male or female.  This is while Rome was burning.  This world is burning, and we are discussing now what kind of a sign you have to put on a public restroom.  It’s the same situation.  Nobody takes the lead in the big situations. . . .The cycle for civil unrest has just turned up, and it’s going to get much worse.  You can imagine if Biden loses to Trump (in 2024), what is going to happen over here?  I have never seen people so much on the edge. . . . Look at what going on with masks.  People are ready to kill you because you disagree on what you think about masks.”

Nenner thinks the stock market can go down in the next leg to “15,000 on the DOW.”  After that, there would be more downside pain in stocks to follow over the next few years.  Nenner is still forecasting the Dow to bottom out around 5,000.  Nenner thinks the U.S. dollar cycle is headed down, while interest rates are headed up.  Meanwhile, Nenner predicts the bond market will tank, but it’s getting a little bounce at the moment.

Nenner sees inflation sticking around for some time to come and gold going up in a long-term cycle starting in earnest mid-April.

 

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  • 1 month later...

NENNER's CYCLES of WAR and GOLD

+ Up to 1/3 of our population may die in the next war !

+ Gold cycle is up until 2027. Resistance is $2500, and then as high as $40K!

+ "Gold's short term cycle turned up this week" (yesterday, from when he said it)

eHJH082.gif

Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2

Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner

 

 

 

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US DOLLAR could be peaking here at/near 105-110.

DXY: All: 10yrW: 5yrD: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 102.93, YrH: 105.01

45y8H4v.gif

USO etc - from 2009: mid-2015: Oct.2018: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9%

DvuO9WG.gif

USO etc - from mid-2015: 2yr: 1yr :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9%

ykvwzeL.gif

USO etc - from 2009: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9%

TaCaDKm.gif

Ratio: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9%  5yr fixed: 3yr Below ::

gHL2r6t.png

WTI Crude to Gold : $00. / $00: Ratio: 5.97%

VarHfB4.png

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  • 4 weeks later...

Charles Nenner: It's Too Late to be Defensive - from Monday June 13th

Tom welcomes a new guest, Charles Nenner. He provides independent market research to hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients.

He has been out of most markets for the last year, everything except crude oil and natural gas.

They are looking for entry points in gold and silver after the summer.

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GLD / Gold ... $171.27 x10.8= $1,849

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SPX Last: 3,674.84. (which is a little BELOW his 3,700 target )

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NASDAQ Last: 10,798. (which is a little BELOW his 11,180 target )

They have a downside target on the S&P of 3709, and, 11180 on the Nasdaq. There may be a bounce at that level, but it's still a long-term bear market. The correlations that experts give for inflation may be wrong. The causes of inflation have been building for a long time. Instead of trying to explain every action, it's important to focus on the long market cycles. This will remove a lot of the guess work as to the causes. Charles explains the timeframes and cycle methodology that he utilizes in his research. Charles argues the Fed is not really in control and that most of their actions have little effect. He believes they are worried about the situation. He notes that insiders started selling in the second half of last year. The problem with the news is they will tell you why something happened after it happens. In 2006, he predicted the housing market would crash, which it did. When stocks move up with a certain amount of momentum, you can calculate how long it will go up.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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==

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