malco Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 When to sell gold.. By this I am not referring to trading, buying the dips and selling on the highs and so forth. I mean, for long-term holders of gold, who are anticipating difficult financial times ahead due to Peak Oil, excessive debt, Britain's failing energy resources and all the rest. I am not sure whether it would ever be worth turning gold back into Sterling. How much does Sterling have to depreciate before it gets ditched and a new currency issued? Sterling has lost about 99% of its value relative to gold since 1914. Some coins have already been withdrawn because their scrap value exceeds their monetary value. Suppose Sterling declines by a factor of ten in ten years (=25% annual inflation rate). It would be worth what the Danish Kroner is currently worth. Well, the Danes get by perfectly well. Sterling could still be a viable currency if it stabilised there... but will it? I just don't know what to expect. What are other views? What do you foresee when you look ahead and think about how you will protect your wealth? Is gold now a long term good bet? Or do you feel we are just in a phase that will eventually pass? I am conscious that the past is not a guide to the future... not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alternative-energy Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 By this I am not referring to trading, buying the dips and selling on the highs and so forth. I mean, for long-term holders of gold, who are anticipating difficult financial times ahead due to Peak Oil, excessive debt, Britain's failing energy resources and all the rest. I am not sure whether it would ever be worth turning gold back into Sterling. How much does Sterling have to depreciate before it gets ditched and a new currency issued? Sterling has lost about 99% of its value relative to gold since 1914. Some coins have already been withdrawn because their scrap value exceeds their monetary value. Suppose Sterling declines by a factor of ten in ten years (=25% annual inflation rate). It would be worth what the Danish Kroner is currently worth. Well, the Danes get by perfectly well. Sterling could still be a viable currency if it stabilised there... but will it? I just don't know what to expect. What are other views? What do you foresee when you look ahead and think about how you will protect your wealth? Is gold now a long term good bet? Or do you feel we are just in a phase that will eventually pass? I am conscious that the past is not a guide to the future... not at all. This may sound a bit obvious but if you are a long term gold holder and are using it to protect your wealth, wouldn't it be best to sell your gold only when you need to buy something else (that you really need) with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 19, 2006 Report Share Posted October 19, 2006 SELL GOLD only when something else looks incredibly cheap. that may be when: + Bond yields shoot up, as people flee the dollar, + US real estate crashes, because of high rates + US real estate - priced in gold- may then look incredibly cheap, ...and so will many other dollar-denominated assets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 20, 2013 Report Share Posted June 20, 2013 This is An old Question - But with Gold below $1300 again, we should take a fresh look at metrics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2013 Report Share Posted July 3, 2013 Let's look back at the ideas on this Old thread, and see how useful they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 3, 2013 Report Share Posted July 3, 2013 I think it would be wise to always have "10%" of your net worth in PMs. And the time to sell is when you need the money, OR you discover ways you could grow it better. Until then, there is no time to sell! If you don't know much about equities, or investing or trading, then sure why not 50% in PMs and 50% in cash, until you are comfortable with anything else. PMs still are a VERY safe store of value in the long term. I could pluck some dogmatic rhetoric out from goldismoney forums, but I shall state something more original; Some one told me (from a very rich background), that the rich have money in land and property, and that banks accounts are for the poor. Well until one is very rich, I don't see why PMs don't act like fractional bits of property or land. I sure can't afford to buy a golf course, a farm and a caravan park (that is the person who owns this lot, who said it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted July 4, 2013 Report Share Posted July 4, 2013 I think it would be wise to always have "10%" of your net worth in PMs. And the time to sell is when you need the money, OR you discover ways you could grow it better. Until then, there is no time to sell! You forgot the addendum... "and hope it does badly." If you have 10% of your net worth in PMs, you have the other 90% to grow. Leave the 10% there and continue hoping it does badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 4, 2013 Report Share Posted July 4, 2013 When to Sell? What did history show us ? Well, if you had sold on Sept. 5, 2011, you could have achieved over $1900 per ounce. (on Tuesday, the day after Labor Day on Monday): GLD - Sep.6, 2011 : $182.90 - $0.34 / O: $184.58, H: $185.85, L: $181.31 HOD : $184.58 x 10.36 = $1,912.25 . . . How would that have fit in with the seasonal pattern? Not bad, just one month early - the normal seasonal high is early October SEASONALITY In many parts of the world, this deep cultural affinity for gold is expressed through the giving of gold coins and jewelry for momentous occasions. Gold will soon be entering its historical period of seasonal strength with Ramadan beginning in July, followed by the Indian Festival of Lights, wedding season and Christmas. We have often published on the impact of this powerful seasonal pattern. === /source-FrankHolmes : http://www.kitco.com...ve-Markets.html What other clues were there ?? Here's another measure that would have worked - the BIG GAP to CRB at a time when CRB had rolled over and was sliding downwards : GLD versus CRB ... update RATIO ==== : 02-sep-11 / 12-31-08 : 12-31-10 : 12-31-12 : 07-03-13 : GLD = $183.24 /= $086.52 := $138.72 := $162.01 := $120.74 : CRB := $338.06 /= $247.10 := $332.80 := $295.00 := $281.79 : Ratio: R: 54.2% / R: 35.0% : R: 41.7% : R : 54.9% : R: 42.8% : RATIO Chart : GLD to CRB ... With more Lines From this chart the "Normal Range" for Gold seems to be 42% - 54% of CRB. If you can SELL above that Range, or BUY below it, you would have had a good trade. Buying Gold at near 42% whilst CRB is rising seems to be the best trading strategy. - and - SELLING GOLD at 54% or higher, when CRB is sliding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outside Trader Posted July 4, 2013 Report Share Posted July 4, 2013 SELL GOLD only when something else looks incredibly cheap. that may be when: + Bond yields shoot up, as people flee the dollar, + US real estate crashes, because of high rates + US real estate - priced in gold- may then look incredibly cheap, ...and so will many other dollar-denominated assets How about stocks in your opinion? In February 1933 the Dow Jones Industrial average VS gold got to a low of 1.94 toz and 1.29 toz in January 1980. The low since 1980 was 6.74 in September, 2011 and is currently at 12.51 (June 2013). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 4, 2013 Report Share Posted July 4, 2013 How about stocks in your opinion? In February 1933 the Dow Jones Industrial average VS gold got to a low of 1.94 toz and 1.29 toz in January 1980. The low since 1980 was 6.74 in September, 2011 and is currently at 12.51 (June 2013). Yes. In hindsight, it was another great "swap out" opportunity Looks like it could be near the opposite side of the spectrum now - after a recent high at/near 12.56. The latest is: INDU-$15,000 / Gold-$1,248 = 12.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outside Trader Posted July 5, 2013 Report Share Posted July 5, 2013 An old favourite, UK house prices VS gold chart with the target area. A few months old now, but based on the latest Halifax figures for Average UK house prices in June, hitting £167,980, and the current gold price we are sitting in the low 200s, like the spike up in the mid-1970s. Down hill from now on for the target area? Chart of the month (March 2013)Regarding U.K. house prices in terms of gold, we seem to momentarily be stuck in a historical congestion zone around 150oz the average U.K. house. Given the dire economic outlook of the U.K. (and of Pound Sterling) and given the incredibly positive fundamentals of gold, one would expect a swift collapse of the price towards the target area once the present consolidation is over. http://gold.approxim...old_charts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outside Trader Posted July 5, 2013 Report Share Posted July 5, 2013 Yes. In hindsight, it was another great "swap out" opportunity Looks like it could be near the opposite side of the spectrum now - after a recent high at/near 12.56. The latest is: INDU-$15,000 / Gold-$1,248 = 12.01 That would have been an excellent trade. Thank you for the chart and comments, it is much appreciated! Switching from silver to gold at 32/1 back then would have been profitable for those wishing to stay in the PM complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 5, 2013 Report Share Posted July 5, 2013 RATIO : INDU -to- GOLD It is amazing how the Fibonacci relationships pop up everywhere, even in Ratios (which no one trades) If you take that high and multiply it by Fibo ratios, look what you get: == Level x Fibo = expect : actual- : diff. L : 9.12 x 0.618 = 5.63 : 5.69 : : + 1.07% H : 9.12 x 1.382 = 12.6 : 12.56 : - 0.32% ?: 12.56 x 0.618 = 7.76 : ??? will this be significant? ======= Those are very small "misses". How does it happen, since no one, or very few, would be trading these ratios? Probably because the traded levels are Fibo ratios, and when they get multiplied, you also get Fibo numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.