Zoomrakers X Factor Betting Diary

[cranberryDog46]

Was going to wait until the live shows started but got excited by tonight's show.

 

In my opinion successful X Factor betting is all about understanding which acts will have the broadest appeal and claim the crucial Mums Grannies and Kids Vote.

 

If there are any golden rules then they would be:

 

Any female acts who trade on sex appeal too strongly won't last long, especially if they are a group.

 

Never assume the favorite will win, people who have traded below evens have lost, conversely if someone is a sure thing then evens is a cracking price.

 

Never assume an outsider can't win, I've had a winner I backed at 50s in American Idol, Leon Jackson could be backed at 15, 5 minutes before he won!

 

And finally always try and remember It's not a singing competition, it's a popularity contest for singers.

 

 

best prices are usually available on Betfair and it's usually a good idea to green up if you can.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[drbubb]

Betting on X-factor?

 

Can you make money on that, Zoom?

[cranberryDog46]

Betting on X-factor?

 

Can you make money on that, Zoom?

 

 

Definitely, most TV shows where the outcome is decided by public vote will have betting.

 

X Factor is the biggest and will have the most money traded and the most liquid market.

 

Are you familiar with Betfair, it's a betting exchange that matches bets between punters, allowing people to offer odds as well as take them.

 

Some people do very well making a book while others will just try and back the winner or back acts for the bottom two etc.

 

Backing for the bottom two tends to be safer than backing for elimination as the judges choose who goes out of the bottom two and they can be very capricious.

 

 

 

Reality betting is a discipline like any other form of trading and it pays to understand that the acts you like are not necessarily the acts that will have the broadest appeal.

 

It can also be very hard to exit a position for a small loss even though it becomes clear you have backed a loser or the market is going against you.

 

 

One of the downsides of reality betting is that to do well you tend to have to immerse yourself in the show, sitting through a whole epsiode of X Factor for ten saturdays in a row can start to feel pretty grueling but nowhere near as unpleasant as watching episodes of Big Brother or live feed.

 

 

 

Some people will be looking to make 5 figure sums out of a series of Big Brother or X Factor and people who are good tend to win consistently, I'm a much smaller gambler than that and tend to spend my profits rather than use them to build a decent sized bank - something I intend to change.

 

 

Big Brother draws to a close this week and I have managed to put myself in a position where I win more than double my stake whoever wins and all without watching a single episode - this was done by jumping on one of the front runners when a friend who fits the reality voting demographic posted about how much they liked her on facebook.

 

Josie is the current favorite and although she's very short at 1.13 this is probably still value, but I would only recommend fun money as It is unlikely she will trade lower allowing you to green up, still it's probably about the closest you can get to being able to buy money.

[ziknik]

I gave up on Big Brother betting many years ago. Big Brother always steps in and shakes it all up just as I seem to be holding the winning ticket.

 

I tend to put down £10 on X factor each year. I've got my powder dry for now, I don't think we've seen the winner yet.

 

EDIT: When will Betfair list up all the potential winners? When we get to boot camp?

[cranberryDog46]

I gave up on Big Brother betting many years ago. Big Brother always steps in and shakes it all up just as I seem to be holding the winning ticket.

 

I tend to put down £10 on X factor each year. I've got my powder dry for now, I don't think we've seen the winner yet.

 

EDIT: When will Betfair list up all the potential winners? When we get to boot camp?

 

Yes I've been caught out with eviction betting a few times by the producers decisions on Big Brother, you just need to factor those possibilities in and play it safe.

 

 

Think Betfair might not put up the runners until the acts who have made the live shows are known.

 

You can get prices on some of the people we've already seen with other firms now but I won't be backing anyone until I've seen the first live show and will maybe wait a while after that to see how the acts shape up.

 

 

 

[cranberryDog46]

Classic case of market disconnect from reality on last nights Big Brother eviction betting.

 

It was John McCririck v Coolio, neither particularly pleasant characters.

 

John McCririck - loud mouth, rude and bullying ch4 racing pundit.

 

Coolio - loud mouth, rude and bullying rap artist.

 

 

 

McCririck went but he was trading at around 5 before the market was closed and Coolio was 4/1 on, yet McCririck went!

 

How did the market get it so wrong - a typical case of a bunch of male middle age gamblers not being able to see the fact that just because McCririck is popular with their demographic he is deeply hated by the Big Brother voting demographic.

 

Middle aged employed males, mostly make the big brother markets whereas I suspect the people who do the actual voting tend to be female with kids often single parents and on low incomes.

 

I don't think there is another honest gambling/speculating activity that offers as much value as reality betting and if there is I would truly like to know what it is.

[littledavesab]

Interesting thread Zoom. I am guessing from your comments you use Betfair - or a number of platforms ?

 

Dont have the time or inclanation to follow BigBro myself but Xfactor etc often get a rair viewing in our household

[cranberryDog46]

Interesting thread Zoom. I am guessing from your comments you use Betfair - or a number of platforms ?

 

Dont have the time or inclanation to follow BigBro myself but Xfactor etc often get a rair viewing in our household

 

 

Yeah mainly Betfair, lots of opportunities to trade if that's your thing.

 

I sometimes wonder what some of the forums technical analysts would make of the price charts for reality shows.

 

 

Agree with you about not having the time or inclination to watch Big Brother but still managed about £200 profit so far this year without watching a single episode.

 

 

X-Factor is a fun one + also a good liquid market, Dancing on Ice and Strictly are good too but markets not quite as liquid.

 

 

 

Have positions on a couple of outsiders in BB but don't really have a feel for how it will go at the moment, will post if I think there is any value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Perishabull]

Yeah mainly Betfair, lots of opportunities to trade if that's your thing.

 

I sometimes wonder what some of the forums technical analysts would make of the price charts for reality shows.

 

 

Agree with you about not having the time or inclination to watch Big Brother but still managed about £200 profit so far this year without watching a single episode.

 

 

X-Factor is a fun one + also a good liquid market, Dancing on Ice and Strictly are good too but markets not quite as liquid.

 

 

 

Have positions on a couple of outsiders in BB but don't really have a feel for how it will go at the moment, will post if I think there is any value.

 

Absolutely brilliant point ZR, about tech analysts, it's just another market after all right? I had originally visited this thread to castigate you for betting on "reality TV" but now realise that it's precisely the fact that it's dross that opens up the marketplace for you. Eg It's (Generally speaking) numbskulls betting on fantasists.

 

However "technical analysts" is a broad brush, some read too much into the long gone past rather than estimating trends from very recent events.

[jerpy]

How did the market get it so wrong - a typical case of a bunch of male middle age gamblers not being able to see the fact that just because McCririck is popular with their demographic he is deeply hated by the Big Brother voting demographic.

 

Middle aged employed males, mostly make the big brother markets whereas I suspect the people who do the actual voting tend to be female with kids often single parents and on low incomes.

 

Funny you should say that, my niece was waffling on the other day about how nakose (I think?) would be the next to go, anyway she was the girl who showered for effect. Just happened to be round someone's house last night with it on in the background and noticed her walk of shame(fame) as she'd been kicked out.

 

Going to ask her Monday what her next prediction is? What odds was the showergirl woman, was she favourite last night? Just curious.

[cranberryDog46]

Funny you should say that, my niece was waffling on the other day about how nakose (I think?) would be the next to go, anyway she was the girl who showered for effect. Just happened to be round someone's house last night with it on in the background and noticed her walk of shame(fame) as she'd been kicked out.

 

Going to ask her Monday what her next prediction is? What odds was the showergirl woman, was she favourite last night? Just curious.

 

 

Think Makosi was down to about 1.2 (decimal odds), 1/5 on, in old money

 

I didn't get involved because there were two being evicted and you had to get the right order though with 47% of the vote in a 5 way eviction contest Makosi was clearly value even at that price.

 

Would be interesting to do an analysis of how often the favorite goes and at what price, my guess would be that even at low prices there would still be value, although I do think the market is more prone to getting it wrong at the beginning of a series but then seems to get in step with the mood of the voters.

 

It's possible that just backing the favorite to go ten minutes before lines close after the 2nd week could be a profitable strategy.

 

 

One of the reason I think specials markets (reality shows, politics, talent shows, anything that is determined by a public vote) offer so much value compared to sports betting or even speculation on the financial markets is because they don't lend themselves to statistical analysis in the same way and the price is very much a matter of opinion.

 

[cranberryDog46]

Vanessa Feltz at 1.33 for 4th Eviction looks a reasonable bet.

 

Feltz is generally a bit of a hate figure and I would imagine especially so with your average big brother voter.

 

I've had some and will be surprised if price doesn't come in further, giving the opportunity to lay off before the eviction on Wednesday.

 

Market is very illiquid at the moment so no guarantees of being able to lay off.

 

 

[cranberryDog46]

Ok after the shame of losing my Betfair Bank on the Vannesa Feltz eviction I've finally plucked up the courage to show my face on this thread again.

 

 

Let's turn to the next labor leader market.

 

Ed Milliband has overtaken his brother David as favorite in the betting markets.

 

The big question is whether this is due to info leaking out about how the Labor MPs have voted.

 

I've taken a gamble and backed Ed on Betfair at 1.78 and I think he can still be had at over 1.5

 

 

More here:

 

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/

[Perishabull]

Ok after the shame of losing my Betfair Bank on the Vannesa Feltz eviction I've finally plucked up the courage to show my face on this thread again.

 

 

Let's turn to the next labor leader market.

 

Ed Milliband has overtaken his brother David as favorite in the betting markets.

 

The big question is whether this is due to info leaking out about how the Labor MPs have voted.

 

I've taken a gamble and backed Ed on Betfair at 1.78 and I think he can still be had at over 1.5

 

Are there any polls on this? I've not been following it, what's the consensus view?

[cranberryDog46]

Are there any polls on this? I've not been following it, what's the consensus view?

 

 

Interesting article on Labor Leader polling here:

 

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php...or-ed-miliband/

 

"Until now I’ve been saying that I thought it was a 50-50 chance between the Miliband brothers and that that an EdM bet was the better value because his price was longer.

 

Now I’m changing my view - I believe that Ed Miliband has a better chance of winning.

 

There are two main reasons - firstly the progress his campaign seems to have made in the MP/MEP third of the electoral college. Here it only took a very few changes of mind or alteration of the positioning of the Milibands on the AV list for there to be a big impact.

 

Last night SkyNews was reporting that a former minister was saying that the EdM deficit here was down to just 14 votes. Whether that was on first preferences or after the lower preferences had kicked in we do not know but there’s a sense that progress has been by the younger brother.

 

A number of MPs originally declared publicly for DaveM mainly because he was seen as the front runner and his victory a forgone conclusion. That changed with the YouGov poll of members and trade unionists twelve days ago and this, I’m told, helped the EdM campaign in the closing stages particularly in securing pledges of lower preference support from those not making a Miliband their first choice.

 

Secondly I’ve been looking further at the YouGov poll and have been in conversation with the pollster about the findings.

 

What I hadn’t appreciated was that a significant number of those who took part in the latest survey were also participants in the July polls and it is possible from the data to track changes.

 

A big group of switchers amongst trade unionists appeared to be those who in July said they were voting for DavidM even though 29% of them felt that EdM most shared their political views. That proportion fell this month to just 10% and there’s was a corresponding increase in the voting intention figures for EdM.

 

There’s a similar but smaller pattern in the members section and my guess is that in both sections those still “voting DM but most like EdM’s politics” were the least motivated of voters.

 

So overall DM appears to have been squeezed in his main area of strength, MPs/MEPs, and lost quite a lot of support amongst members and in the TU section from those who rated EdM’s political views over his.

Mike Smithson"

[cranberryDog46]

Watched a bit of Strictly last night and thought Felicity Kendall looks a good runner.

 

She moved well and is still regarded as a national treasure I think there is a lot of good feeling towards Felicity especially amongst the BBC Fri/Sat night audience.

 

She has a warmth about her and seems to have no problem letting herself go and having fun with the dancing, if she continues to put in good performances (for a 62 year old) she could go quite close to the final.

 

Backed her last night at 15.5 and have laid off this morning at 15 so a good start.

 

Will see how her odds stand after tonight's show and may get in again if she drifts.

 

 

Strictly is not a program I enjoy so will just be watching the odd bit for the narrative and trying to pick up the general feeling from forums.

[cranberryDog46]

Apologies for not updating this thread untill so late in the series.

 

The reasons are I just don't have a feel for it this year, it seems a pretty weak field with no act combining likeability and ability in a big enough way to stand out as a clear winner.

 

X Factor is usually a battle for the main stream vote and all the good performers seem to come with big negatives.

 

 

The other fly in the ointment this year is Wagner, there is usually a novelty act that outlasts a number of better singers and can be traded profitably. The problem is this year I think Wagner may actually have a chance of winning due to a Rage Against the Machine style anti X Factor vote.

 

That vote is definately out there but at this point in time it is impossible to quantify it's scale.

 

 

 

I originally backed Wagner at over 100 and layed off at around 50 but he is now trading around 10 and will go lower if he survives this weekend without ending up in the bottom two.

 

 

Elimination betting has also been difficuilt this year due to Betfair not running a bottom two market because of uncertainty about each weeks elimination procedure. Twitter analysis seems to have proven accurate with regard to bottom two but elimination bets have often been foiled by the capriciousness of the judges. Still that is no excuse as if I had layed my elimination bets off when the price fell on those who were bottom two I would be showing more profit than I currently am.

 

 

Current situation is

 

 

Outright Market: £60 profit If Wagner loses, £10 profit if Wagner wins

 

Elimination betting: approx £20 profit

 

 

Am considering sticking the bank on Wagner but will wait untill he has performed on Saturday before making decision as I expect his price to drift out to around 15 or 20 after he has performed.

 

 

 

 

[cranberryDog46]

Don't normally like to give tips but Stacy Solomon to win I'm a Celebrity at 1/2 seems like buying money

 

I've backed at 1.4 and won't be laying off unless she goes below 1.1

[cranberryDog46]

Colors to Mast time.

 

Cardle to win tonight still 1.7s available.