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Nov.-Dec. Gold & Gold share thread


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((Comex gold peaked at $732 oz. on May 12, 2006, and in early September sunk below $600 oz))


# # Let's start the November GOLD thread early, to give it a push # #




I think Gold's being dragged down by Oil weakness.

So the rally may not start just yet, but the weakness will be over before -or by- the election


GLD Chart ... update


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I hope people think a running gold thread- monthly, or whatever- is a good idea


= =


looking at the chart,

the gap just below, near Gold-$580 and GLD-$58.00 may need filling


Here's a close-up: update

GAP goes down to about GLD-$57.65


UNLESS it signals an island reversal. But a pullback to GLD-$58-ish would not be surprising

- -


In the past two weeks, I have been buying shares like:

NSU, LRR.v, JIN.t, GAL.v...


Here's LRR.v, now about 50% in the money, thnx to good drill results

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giold getting hit, as expected. That $600 resistance held, and GLD needs to retrace back to

the gap near $58.00


today we have seen:

Last : 57.9600 / -0.8200 , -1.40%

Day High 58.19 - Day Low 57.79


Now, not everyone thinks that we will see a simple retracement, and then a shot upwards


The EWI people remain bullish, and think $578-ish is key:


[December Gold] finally carried up into our cited initial target of $603.50-$612.50. The overnight high was

$606.00, which is near the previous wave (iv) extreme as well as the .382 retracement of wave i (circle) down.

The odds are increasing that wave ii (circle) up is over and that wave iii (circle) down is starting. A decline

beneath the wave (a) of ii (circle) high of $578.80 would confirm the onset of the third wave decline. Until then,

we cannot eliminate the alternate interpretation, as seen by the Alt. line at the bottom of the chart. It’s possible

that wave (a) of ii (circle) is still unfolding, with one more upward push needed to complete this first wave up of

a three-wave countertrend move. The alternate appears to be more in line with the sentiment picture, which

still has room to come off its pessimistic extreme. However, with the one larger degree trend still down for gold,

we are giving a slight extra weight to the more immediate bearish interpretation, which calls for wave iii (circle)

of 3 down to begin and draw gold below $500. As noted above, coming under $578.80 would confirm the top


- - -


REMEMBER: EWI are talking dec.futures, which trade at approx $5 premium to spot.

Thus, the spot gold of about $574 is a level to watch

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Nice rally off those lows...


GDX : 36.52 +0.44 Open: 35.51

High: 36.53 - Low: 35.51 / Percent Change +1.22%


GLD : 58.01 +0.25 Open: 57.20

High: 58.06 - Low: 56.87 / Percent Change: +0.43%

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Hi Dr Bubb,


I would be interested if you had a moment to see your EW interpretation of the bigger picture in gold and silver. Here are 10 year charts:






Is it possible that, as far as the bigger picture is concerned, the move to May this year was Wave 1? We are now in or at the bottom of wave 2 down and getting set for the next wave (3 of 5) up?

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Elliottwaves can be as much an art as a science


But i suppose i would give a count like this:



Suggesting we may have started a wave .5 up already


Other interpretations are welcome

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major gold shares had a great day yesterday ... update




...and they look to be on the cusp of a nice breakout

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  • 2 weeks later...

GOLD - back to $605, says this analyst:


"The weekly chart shows a different story. Stocks still have not met their secular downtrend line vs. the yellow metal and in fact have not lost their uptrend. No sign of bearish divergence either. The US Dollar is at a critical juncture and the bond market is trying its best to re-inflate Goldilocks (yield curve relentlessly declining). Combine this with a notable upturn in sentiment in the gold sector (newsletter writers are bursting with bullishness including some who were notably bearish until recently) and we have the makings of a correction at the least. Our targets of 605 +/- for gold and 309 to 319 for HUI are back in play. While stocks may simply decline less than gold, it would not be surprising to see additional upside here for all things paper."


@: http://www.safehaven.com/article-6290.htm


- -


After yesterday's action, a fall to at least $610 looks rather likely ... update


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VISITORS WELCOME ... from the Really Useful gold thread



I'm afraid that I have become seriously bored by the bad attitudes of one or two posters on Advfn,

and have decided to withdraw the charts there, based on the hope and expectation that either:


+ future posting behaviour will improve, reflecting mutual respect, or


+ the offending parties will set up their own thread and disappear from RUG


Once the path is clear, i will re-establish the charts there, since many seem to find them "really useful"


= =


SHARP DROP in gold, looks like it will take it down to about the GBS-$61 level, where support is

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do you think the mab over at advfn makes any money?


I wonder. I see him rubbishing sound-but-creative trading ideas, and spouting the most

obvious and sometimes irrelevant nonsense.


There are some good posters there. But it seems the most vocal and active ones, sometimes

turn out to be like AJ, too blinded by their own trading approach, that they cannot take any new

ideas on board


= =


Nice chart



looks like we should get too worried until the COT balance approaches 150K.

I used to track these figures closely, and it became too much work, and some old benchmarks

became less relevant. Thread here maybe?



Listening to Tom, I hear him identify $607.50 as support on the Gold futures contract.

If it hits there, it could be a tad lower on physicals

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Well, I like Jack Chan, Dr B. He has a very simply, trend-following, trading strategy, that cuts out most of the b-s. He mainly uses technical analsysis and ETFs. He has been long GLD and GDX since about 570 and has made on nice profit on the trade.


This to me is a great chart with a simple but effective strategy for identifing when gold has become overblown. That's one of the great problems - knowing when to sell. I'd like to know if the COT numbers got above those figures when gold was lower or if those figures peaked as gold did. But basically, yes, if it goes above 150, get those stops in tight.


As for Mab, I don't usually find his posts that insightful, sometimes he has good links. I suspect he's not that experienced (who's talking?) and may spend more time posting than trading, but that wouldn't be the only person on the thread to whom that applies. I don't think he makes or loses that much because I don't think he trades with anything like the sums that you do. It's a great shame to lose the thread though. It has become a semi-essential reference point for many of us.

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looks like the gold correction may be done.

I was looking for GBS-$61 or lower- we saw

GBS: Low $61.09

GLD: Low $61.25


That's close enuff for the subscription I charge

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