webmaster Posted October 23, 2006 Report Share Posted October 23, 2006 ((Comex gold peaked at $732 oz. on May 12, 2006, and in early September sunk below $600 oz)) # # Let's start the November GOLD thread early, to give it a push # # I think Gold's being dragged down by Oil weakness. So the rally may not start just yet, but the weakness will be over before -or by- the election GLD Chart ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 23, 2006 Report Share Posted October 23, 2006 I hope people think a running gold thread- monthly, or whatever- is a good idea = = looking at the chart, the gap just below, near Gold-$580 and GLD-$58.00 may need filling Here's a close-up: update GAP goes down to about GLD-$57.65 UNLESS it signals an island reversal. But a pullback to GLD-$58-ish would not be surprising - - In the past two weeks, I have been buying shares like: NSU, LRR.v, JIN.t, GAL.v... Here's LRR.v, now about 50% in the money, thnx to good drill results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chas and dave Posted October 23, 2006 Report Share Posted October 23, 2006 I suggest 24hr golden threads starting HK wake-up time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted October 23, 2006 Report Share Posted October 23, 2006 I hope people think a running gold thread- monthly, or whatever- is a good idea Yes good idea bubb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 23, 2006 Report Share Posted October 23, 2006 OK giold getting hit, as expected. That $600 resistance held, and GLD needs to retrace back to the gap near $58.00 today we have seen: Last : 57.9600 / -0.8200 , -1.40% Day High 58.19 - Day Low 57.79 Now, not everyone thinks that we will see a simple retracement, and then a shot upwards The EWI people remain bullish, and think $578-ish is key: [December Gold] finally carried up into our cited initial target of $603.50-$612.50. The overnight high was $606.00, which is near the previous wave (iv) extreme as well as the .382 retracement of wave i (circle) down. The odds are increasing that wave ii (circle) up is over and that wave iii (circle) down is starting. A decline beneath the wave (a) of ii (circle) high of $578.80 would confirm the onset of the third wave decline. Until then, we cannot eliminate the alternate interpretation, as seen by the Alt. line at the bottom of the chart. It’s possible that wave (a) of ii (circle) is still unfolding, with one more upward push needed to complete this first wave up of a three-wave countertrend move. The alternate appears to be more in line with the sentiment picture, which still has room to come off its pessimistic extreme. However, with the one larger degree trend still down for gold, we are giving a slight extra weight to the more immediate bearish interpretation, which calls for wave iii (circle) of 3 down to begin and draw gold below $500. As noted above, coming under $578.80 would confirm the top view. - - - REMEMBER: EWI are talking dec.futures, which trade at approx $5 premium to spot. Thus, the spot gold of about $574 is a level to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny Posted October 24, 2006 Report Share Posted October 24, 2006 Just bounced off the $574 level - Let's hope the bottom has been nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 24, 2006 Report Share Posted October 24, 2006 GAP is filled ... update Let's see what happens next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 24, 2006 Report Share Posted October 24, 2006 Nice rally off those lows... GDX : 36.52 +0.44 Open: 35.51 High: 36.53 - Low: 35.51 / Percent Change +1.22% GLD : 58.01 +0.25 Open: 57.20 High: 58.06 - Low: 56.87 / Percent Change: +0.43% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted October 24, 2006 Report Share Posted October 24, 2006 Hi Dr Bubb, I would be interested if you had a moment to see your EW interpretation of the bigger picture in gold and silver. Here are 10 year charts: ]gold[/url] ]silver[/url] Is it possible that, as far as the bigger picture is concerned, the move to May this year was Wave 1? We are now in or at the bottom of wave 2 down and getting set for the next wave (3 of 5) up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 24, 2006 Report Share Posted October 24, 2006 Elliottwaves can be as much an art as a science But i suppose i would give a count like this: Suggesting we may have started a wave .5 up already Other interpretations are welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chas and dave Posted October 25, 2006 Report Share Posted October 25, 2006 That's my kinda arrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 25, 2006 Report Share Posted October 25, 2006 major gold shares had a great day yesterday ... update ...and they look to be on the cusp of a nice breakout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted November 1, 2006 Report Share Posted November 1, 2006 Gold is up strongly this week $616. Silver has been rising throughout October I notice ~ 20% up in a month!! With oil down at $58 could this be the time that Gold breaks north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 3, 2006 Report Share Posted November 3, 2006 a few laggard gold shares are still worth buying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 3, 2006 Report Share Posted November 3, 2006 New platinum ETF proposed. Yesterdays 5% rise due to this? http://za.today.reuters.com/news/NewsArtic...SE-20061103.XML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HollandPark Posted November 3, 2006 Report Share Posted November 3, 2006 how about an etf for zinc? there's none left, and that would squeeze the remaining life out of those remaining short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 14, 2006 Report Share Posted November 14, 2006 GOLD - back to $605, says this analyst: "The weekly chart shows a different story. Stocks still have not met their secular downtrend line vs. the yellow metal and in fact have not lost their uptrend. No sign of bearish divergence either. The US Dollar is at a critical juncture and the bond market is trying its best to re-inflate Goldilocks (yield curve relentlessly declining). Combine this with a notable upturn in sentiment in the gold sector (newsletter writers are bursting with bullishness including some who were notably bearish until recently) and we have the makings of a correction at the least. Our targets of 605 +/- for gold and 309 to 319 for HUI are back in play. While stocks may simply decline less than gold, it would not be surprising to see additional upside here for all things paper." @: http://www.safehaven.com/article-6290.htm - - After yesterday's action, a fall to at least $610 looks rather likely ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
energyi Posted November 14, 2006 Report Share Posted November 14, 2006 VISITORS WELCOME ... from the Really Useful gold thread ============= I'm afraid that I have become seriously bored by the bad attitudes of one or two posters on Advfn, and have decided to withdraw the charts there, based on the hope and expectation that either: + future posting behaviour will improve, reflecting mutual respect, or + the offending parties will set up their own thread and disappear from RUG Once the path is clear, i will re-establish the charts there, since many seem to find them "really useful" = = SHARP DROP in gold, looks like it will take it down to about the GBS-$61 level, where support is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 14, 2006 Report Share Posted November 14, 2006 Tom O,Brien says: The gold contract traded to the $638.00 price point last week with conviction. You can now expect we will trade back to about the $607.00 mark. Meanwhile, Jack Chan says: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan111006.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 15, 2006 Report Share Posted November 15, 2006 Fr., do you think the mab over at advfn makes any money? I wonder. I see him rubbishing sound-but-creative trading ideas, and spouting the most obvious and sometimes irrelevant nonsense. There are some good posters there. But it seems the most vocal and active ones, sometimes turn out to be like AJ, too blinded by their own trading approach, that they cannot take any new ideas on board = = Nice chart looks like we should get too worried until the COT balance approaches 150K. I used to track these figures closely, and it became too much work, and some old benchmarks became less relevant. Thread here maybe? BTW, Listening to Tom, I hear him identify $607.50 as support on the Gold futures contract. If it hits there, it could be a tad lower on physicals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 15, 2006 Report Share Posted November 15, 2006 Well, I like Jack Chan, Dr B. He has a very simply, trend-following, trading strategy, that cuts out most of the b-s. He mainly uses technical analsysis and ETFs. He has been long GLD and GDX since about 570 and has made on nice profit on the trade. This to me is a great chart with a simple but effective strategy for identifing when gold has become overblown. That's one of the great problems - knowing when to sell. I'd like to know if the COT numbers got above those figures when gold was lower or if those figures peaked as gold did. But basically, yes, if it goes above 150, get those stops in tight. As for Mab, I don't usually find his posts that insightful, sometimes he has good links. I suspect he's not that experienced (who's talking?) and may spend more time posting than trading, but that wouldn't be the only person on the thread to whom that applies. I don't think he makes or loses that much because I don't think he trades with anything like the sums that you do. It's a great shame to lose the thread though. It has become a semi-essential reference point for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 15, 2006 Report Share Posted November 15, 2006 looks like the gold correction may be done. I was looking for GBS-$61 or lower- we saw GBS: Low $61.09 GLD: Low $61.25 That's close enuff for the subscription I charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 21, 2006 Report Share Posted November 21, 2006 Dr Bubb, Check out this week's radio goldseek 1st hour about 15 minutes in. Peter Spina properly going off on one about GORO, http://www.radio.goldseek.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted November 22, 2006 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2006 Weak dollar. Gold is bound to follow the currencies higher if this $ slide continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tournesol Posted November 23, 2006 Report Share Posted November 23, 2006 just checking what happens with the name field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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