No6 Posted April 13, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 UK market pretty strong today. Looks like the surprise news on price inflation yesterday coupled with today's not worse than expected job figures have set the market in a happy frame of mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 13, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 Roll forward 6 or so weeks and seems the analyst trip RNS'd on Friday has well and truly steadied the ship. Shares closed at 153p today after earlier breaking 158p. Seemingly heading for higher ground? Looks like bulls have come back to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted April 18, 2011 Report Share Posted April 18, 2011 Would this guy make a good trader or just a reckless one? Raises a good question about personality and risk. Apply the things he is saying to trading/investing. I guess your point is he would make a good trader provided he transacts risk management correctly ? A fair point and I can admit to being a bit lax in the risk management department when it comes to my investment antics (despite my day job ) . Hmm more homework for me.... Ps. No6 in the previous "2010 world stockmarkets" or similar threads it was quite clear that anyone could jump in with whatever comments. As this is your blog, is there any "etiquette" (other than not being just another gold ramping thread...)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2011 I guess your point is he would make a good trader provided he transacts risk management correctly ? A fair point and I can admit to being a bit lax in the risk management department when it comes to my investment antics (despite my day job ) . Hmm more homework for me.... I was watching a documentary about climbing the Eigar and it focussed on how difficult it was and the number of deaths of traditional climbers over the years attempting the North Face. Then along comes Steck almost running up the mountain and he does it in 2 hours, 47 mins! Steck's speed climbing Raises interesting question about risk. In the film above there are one or two times when he almost slips. The speed climbers risk is one mistake and you are probably dead. The risk management has to be perfect in planning every climb. Trading has risk management, but you have to be prepared to lose, take the hit and come back, it did make me wonder how someone who can climb a mountain like that with the ultimate risk would approach trading and investing. Steck is clearly a perfectionist, which I would say is a bad trait for a trader. Clearly he has more bottle than any trader, but whether he would be any good making money in markets I wonder. The markets would probably bore him anyway. Ps. No6 in the previous "2010 world stockmarkets" or similar threads it was quite clear that anyone could jump in with whatever comments. As this is your blog, is there any "etiquette" (other than not being just another gold ramping thread...)? Happy for anyone to join in the conversation or add their own thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 19, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2011 I have little or no understanding of Ichimoku charts, but post a couple here via Tipstracker which suggest things are still bullish. It seems to support my 5800 support line on FTSE mentioned in post above. The FTSE daily Ichimoku chart is bullish with both the price and lagging line above the cloud. This morning the price bounced off cloud support. For a bearish cross we would have to see the price drop below 5,800 in the next month. The daily Ichimoku Gold chart is bullish with both the price and lagging line above the cloud. Support from the cloud is down at around 1,400 for the price. Tipstracker.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2011 Are the markets gearing themselves for the next move up? Given that the FTSE is sitting on a recovery triple top, the next move does have to be decisive in getting through that 6100 barrier, but with the summer coming up, sell in May, etc, could be difficult to sustain. There is still enough good news around to keep things going though, especially from companies reporting. ADVFN Market Report Stocks finished higher on a busy day on the company news front and the cheer continued with some bullish updates after the bell. Among the results issued following the close were computer services provider IBM and web portal Yahoo! Inc. IBM has upped its full year profit forecast to at least $13.15 a share from at least $13 previously after strong sales last quarter. Yahoo!’s fourth quarter sales came in at $1.06bn (stripping out revenues passed on to partner’s sites), ahead of estimates. Yahoo! added that sales for the second quarter will be $1.08bn to $1.13bn. An improving advertising climate helped the company. Chip giant Intel, also after the bell, predicted that second quarter sales will come in at about $12.8bn (give or take $500m), ahead of analysts’ estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2011 Interesting bit of news came out of the US last Friday with the Fed and FBI effectively shutting down three of the biggest online poker websites. This is what you will see if you go to the sites shut down, FullTiltPoker in this instance. http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/ "Online poker sites shut down and charged with fraud in US crackdown The founders of three of the world’s largest poker websites have been charged with fraud and may be ordered to repay $3bn (£1.8bn) of “illegal” gambling profits. US investigators said the websites, two of which are registered in the UK, had “concocted an elaborate criminal fraud” to trick and bribe banks into “massive money laundering and bank fraud”. The founders of Full Tilt Poker, PokerStars and Absolute Poker could face up to 20 years in jail if found guilty of breaching US anti-gambling and money laundering laws. The US Department of Justice (DoJ) seized the companies’ bank accounts and took control of their US websites, which now display an FBI warning about the illegality of online gambling. It is against the law for US citizens to gamble online, but many Americans have continued to bet via foreign websites operating illegally. Analysts said the DoJ probe was “great news” for British gambling companies that have not sought to circumvent US laws because authorities are likely to “reward” them if and when regulated online gambling is introduced in the US." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8456290/Online-poker-sites-shut-down-and-charged-with-fraud-in-US-crackdown.html UK companies like 888.com and B.Dev, have gone up in price on the back of this, but don't forget the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes as well. William Hill has one of the biggest poker sites in the UK and has recently been on a spending spree buying US companies to build a presence over there. If online gambling is legalised in the US, I would expect a big re-rating of UK companies in this field, especially those on current low P/E's like WH and Ladbrokes who have largely been forgotten in the market bounce of the last 2-3 years. As an aside, you do have to laugh at the US and its high and mighty attitude to these gambling sites, especially after the fraud that Wall Street and its banker friends got away with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted April 20, 2011 Report Share Posted April 20, 2011 Are the markets gearing themselves for the next move up? Given that the FTSE is sitting on a recovery triple top, the next move does have to be decisive in getting through that 6100 barrier, but with the summer coming up, sell in May, etc, could be difficult to sustain. There is still enough good news around to keep things going though, especially from companies reporting. Am I right in thinking that when a TA signal has failed a couple of times then the next move can be more explosive? Interesting bit of news came out of the US last Friday with the Fed and FBI effectively shutting down three of the biggest online poker websites. This is what you will see if you go to the sites shut down, FullTiltPoker in this instance. http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/ As an aside, you do have to laugh at the US and its high and mighty attitude to these gambling sites, especially after the fraud that Wall Street and its banker friends got away. Absolutely . US legal system does seem a bit hit or miss. We like to moan in the UK but compared to the US things are good by comparison. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the US is engaged in a bit of protectionism of its own market combined with some soundbutes for the bible basher brigade. There was a very interesting article in the Economist last year about how the US legal system has some very unfair aspects http://www.economist.com/node/16640389 I do wonder if in time you will get countries hosting "dodgy" type websites much in the same way ships are registed with lax countries offering "flags of convenience". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2011 Am I right in thinking that when a TA signal has failed a couple of times then the next move can be more explosive? I would say yes, but only once the resistance point has been broken. So, the FTSE has had difficulty breaking through the 6100 barrier and staying above it. If on this current move it struggles in that area again I would say we are more likely to see an explosive move to the downside, not a crash, but a move towards support areas below. On the other hand, if it moves up to 6200+ and is supported by a Bollinger Band breakout, then that could be explosive to the upside, say 6500. 6100 will then become a new support level. The key here is that markets don't like to hang around double or triple tops for too long, the next move either way will tend to be significant. The same can be said for consolidation periods, eventually price will break one way or the other out of it. This is why I like Bollinger Bands, they usually expand with the move, although you have to be careful early on for any whipsaw or false direction on the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 UK companies like 888.com and B.Dev, have gone up in price on the back of this, but don't forget the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes as well. William Hill has one of the biggest poker sites in the UK and has recently been on a spending spree buying US companies to build a presence over there. If online gambling is legalised in the US, I would expect a big re-rating of UK companies in this field, especially those on current low P/E's like WH and Ladbrokes who have largely been forgotten in the market bounce of the last 2-3 years. William Hill interim statement out this morning showing impressive performance in online activities, the market seems to like it, up around 9% in early trading. http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/4189233-14283/WMH-Q1_Interim_Management_Statement_html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 FTSE 6750-7000 by year end? The UK stock market has been over-coming risks rather well over the last two years. Since the lows of March 2009, the FTSE 100 is up 70pc despite a collapse in the banking system, an inflation rate more than twice the Bank of England’s target, the first coalition government since 1945 and a near default by some of our European neighbours. Turbulence will continue through 2011, but the 2 year old bull market will also reach its 3rd birthday. As long as the UK economy remains on its current path of gradual expansion, as we expect it will, what matters is company earnings, which are forecast to grow by over 15pc this year. Earnings are already up 65pc since the trough. UK companies are in a remarkably healthy position with large amounts of cash. Dividends should grow (the expected dividend yield for 2011 is 3.6pc), share buybacks are increasing and the mergers and acquisitions cycle is accelerating, all of which should support a rising equity market. Valuations too support the market. With earnings recovering, the 12-month forward price earnings ratio of the UK market is at 10 times, 30pc below the long term average of 13 times. Investing in large cap UK equities, such as the FTSE 100, also offers investors good exposure to faster growing emerging markets – over 70pc of FTSE 100 earnings are from outside the UK. Energy and basic materials are two sectors which provide excellent global earnings exposure. Energy should continue to benefit from high oil prices and also offers a competitive dividend yield at nearly 4pc. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8465259/UK-shares-risk-takers-to-still-be-rewarded.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 22, 2011 Report Share Posted April 22, 2011 Hi No6, I don't know whether you are interested, but in case you are... I have started a new thread where I will be taking a look at some small cap stocks traded in the UK. Initially, I will be looking at some charts and capsule financial info, but once I home in on some high potential stocks, I plan to monitor them as part of a small Special Situations Portfolio. Please have a look: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14693 Perhaps you can offer some comments or suggestions. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK on this thread. It is good to dip in from time to time here. You have been more consistent, more bullish, and that has not been a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2011 KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK on this thread. It is good to dip in from time to time here. You have been more consistent, more bullish, and that has not been a bad thing. I've simply gone with the market direction, it's bullish and people often learn the hard way that you don't fight a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2011 Earnings beating Wall Street expectations. Companies continued the parade of encouraging results with names such as Whirlpool Corp (WHR.N), Corning Inc (GLW.N), and Baker Hughes Inc (BHI.N) trumping Wall Street's profit expectations. So far about three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies which have reported results have beaten forecasts. "Earnings are coming in very, very nicely," said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial in New York. "The valuation of the market is very, very attractive ... it's hard for me to be bearish." http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110427/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks_34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2011 Dow 13000+ approaching. The Dow broke through resistance at 12400, signaling an advance to 13200. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) up-turn high above zero indicates strong buying pressure. http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-04-28_markets_gold_forex.php#stocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted April 28, 2011 Report Share Posted April 28, 2011 Rather off topic possibly I know but could I ask your opinion on the TAPI pipeline running gas through Agghanistan from a security point of view? Somehow it seems to me to present a nice juicy taarget to fundamentalists. But maybe I am being overly negative. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Afghanistan_Pipeline#Route http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1770146.ece The pipeline will run from Turkmenistan’s Yoloten-Osman gas field to Heart (Afghanistan) and through southern Afghanistan province of Kandahar, before entering Pakistan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted April 29, 2011 Report Share Posted April 29, 2011 I was watching a documentary about climbing the Eigar and it focussed on how difficult it was and the number of deaths of traditional climbers over the years attempting the North Face. Then along comes Steck almost running up the mountain and he does it in 2 hours, 47 mins! Steck's speed climbing Raises interesting question about risk. In the film above there are one or two times when he almost slips. The speed climbers risk is one mistake and you are probably dead. The risk management has to be perfect in planning every climb. Trading has risk management, but you have to be prepared to lose, take the hit and come back, it did make me wonder how someone who can climb a mountain like that with the ultimate risk would approach trading and investing. Steck is clearly a perfectionist, which I would say is a bad trait for a trader. Clearly he has more bottle than any trader, but whether he would be any good making money in markets I wonder. The markets would probably bore him anyway. Happy for anyone to join in the conversation or add their own thoughts. Wonder if the likes of Bear Grylls trade? Probably too busy writing books and being on film! Went to a talk he gave a few years back, still have one of his books bought at the time. It all focussed about going the extra yard, with the perfectionism of a professional risk taker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2011 Rather off topic possibly I know but could I ask your opinion on the TAPI pipeline running gas through Agghanistan from a security point of view? Somehow it seems to me to present a nice juicy taarget to fundamentalists. But maybe I am being overly negative. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Afghanistan_Pipeline#Route http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1770146.ece The pipeline will run from Turkmenistan’s Yoloten-Osman gas field to Heart (Afghanistan) and through southern Afghanistan province of Kandahar, before entering Pakistan Don't really know much about this project as such, but when it comes to security issues you could say that the fundamentalists can find all manner of targets in that part of the world, just as they can in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, etc, so unless the region has a specific known problem and you are considering an investment I wouldn't say that you should dismiss it because those fears are never likely to go away. As we know, much of our energy comes from regions with security issues that never seem to end, yet the supply gets through. I suppose the risk/reward is high, but probably worth it for those brave enough because the fundamentalists never really stop anything permanently. Most of their fear is the threat they pose, most of the time they are never strong enough to carry it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted May 2, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Could be more to come. US Close: Stocks cap off an excellent month of April The main US stock benchmarks closed higher again today (Dow Jones: 47.23, S&P 500: 3.1, Nasdaq Composite: 1), despite the large fall seen in index heavy-weight Microsoft´s shares and a barrage of mixed economic indicators. The S&P 500 thus capped off a very strong 2% rise for the week and ended April up by 2.9%. The Nasdaq Composite, for its part, advanced 1.9% for the week, and posted a 3.3% rise in April. ======================== Also to be had into account, as a sort of ‘back-drop’, China’s Yuan strengthened beyond 6.5 per dollar, for the first time since 1993, and oil rose for an eighth straight month. Of considerable interest as well, some market commentary has called attention to the fact that the Dow Jones Transportation Average surged to an all-time high yesterday. From a sector stand-point the best performing stocks were Tires (9.0%), Coal (3.04%) and Exploration&Production (+2.94%). http://www.digitallook.com/news/4203852/US_Close_Stocks_cap_off_an_excellent_month_of_April.html?&username=&ac= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted May 2, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Warren Buffett shuns gold as an investment The billionaire investor Warren Buffett has said he'd always bet on a good business to deliver better returns than gold over time, even as the precious metal sets fresh records. "Gold really doesn't have utility," the 80-year old told shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway's annual general meeting. "I'd bet on a good producing business to outperform something that doesn't do anything." Gold prices reached new highs 15 times in April as a weaker dollar and fears of inflation encouraged some investors to seek the metal as a store of value. It isn't a rally that Mr Buffett, whose investment skill has turned him into the world's third-richest man, will be joining in. Asked about gold at the annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, Mr Buffett said "if you take all of the gold in the world and put it into a cube, it would be about 67 feet on a side and you could get a ladder and get up on top of it. You can fondle it, you can polish it, you can stare at it. But it isn't going to do anything." ============== Charlie Munger, Mr Buffett's long-term business partner at Berkshire, said that "there's something peculiar about an asset that will really only go up if the world is going to hell." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8488086/Warren-Buffett-shuns-gold-as-an-investment.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted May 3, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2011 6100 is like the Great Wall of China on the FTSE. From Tipstracker.com. Does anyone here use point and figure charts? The 50x3 daily FTSE point and figure chart shows that the price is now hitting the resistance at 6,100. A break above here will give a triple top buy signal and suggests that after 6 months of trading sideways we would see the market move quickly after a break above 6,100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted May 3, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2011 So, is Merv signalling years of low IR's to come? The price inflation will have to be taken regardless while the BoE and Government serve the interests of the debt laden classes, fraudsters and speculators that lost? It would seem so. "The economic consequences of high-level indebtedness now would become more severe if rates were to rise,” Mr King said. “It is the main reason why interest rates are so low.” He added it would take a number of years to repair the damage across Europe caused by the financial crisis. “The economic challenges will last for many years...The financial crisis is far from over,” he said in his capacity as deputy chair of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8488547/Bank-of-England-Governor-Mervyn-King-warns-on-interest-rate-rise.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted May 3, 2011 Report Share Posted May 3, 2011 6100 is like the Great Wall of China on the FTSE. From Tipstracker.com. Does anyone here use point and figure charts? No from me, but trying to figure out the point of the post. Do help please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted May 4, 2011 Report Share Posted May 4, 2011 So, is Merv signalling years of low IR's to come? The price inflation will have to be taken regardless while the BoE and Government serve the interests of the debt laden classes, fraudsters and speculators that lost? It would seem so. Yep, I think that's the most significant UK story in some time. A clear signal of what we expected/discussed previously. Slowly inflate the debt away. I didn't (and still don't) see any other credible option myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted May 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2011 No from me, but trying to figure out the point of the post. Do help please. 6100 on the FTSE looks like a real wall to get over, this is the forth attempt in the last 5-6 months and today the move is heading towards 6000 again. The point and figure chart suggests that if a breakthrough is made we could go some way higher which wouldn't be unusual once a sticking point has been breached. Equally, failure at this level could see a significant move in the opposite direction and with the sell in May question now upon us again, could we be seeing that breakdown? As for the point and figure chart, I don't use them, but wondered if anybody else did to interpret it. There are lots of red lines from the 2008 low pointing in an upward direction which I assume would need to hold to keep this bull move going. 5200 to 5750 looks like significant areas of support that would need to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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