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Ratio : Gold-to-Oil // Normal Range: 7.0 to 11.0 ?


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I like these ratios, they can reveal favorable opportunities to switch from Oil to Gold or vice versa

 

As this thread is started, Gold looks relatively expensive:

gold-oil%20ratio.png

source : Nones-on Resource Investor

 

However, this is only a "Local extreme", and prior 2004, the ratio was higher

goldtooil3nc1.png

 

LONG TERM GOLD/OIL RATIO :

This chart (from Goldfinger) shows brief spikes to 30 and even one to 33.

003bit8.png

That was typically followed by a collapse in the Ratio back below current levels.

 

Long Term Oil prices

PAPRPOP.gif

source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

 

Back to pre-1868: http://www.priceofcrude.com/index.php/crude-oil-chart/

 

= = = = =

CHARTS

http://tinyurl.com/gei-gold-wtic

http://tinyurl.com/gei-GDX-OIH

http://tinyurl.com/gei-GDX-XLE

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  • 1 month later...

TIME TO START SHIFTING...?

 

Out of precious metals into energy?

Maybe.

See charts and comments: WTI-to-Oil Cross market intelligence

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TIME TO START SHIFTING...?

Out of precious metals into energy?

And so it was! with Gold-to-Oil near 12. It proved a good ride, with the ratio almost cut in half

into August 2008 (Ratio then near 6.3)

Now it is time to shift back into Oil - with Gold-to-Oil near 12.50/

 

But after a correction in the ratio, we could have begun a long period where Gold

will tend to outperform Oil. The recent impulse move UP in the Ratio, suggests that.

 

goldtooil3nc1.png

 

But there's a gap down there, near 10.00 - 10.50, that wants filling.

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Long range chart

article_id1222_04.jpg

 

"The lower and upper horizontal bands in the chart above show an oz of gold has exchanged between 22 and 10 barrels of oil since 1989. The ratio dipped to as low as 7 and right now it trades at 20. One shouldn't buck against the trend and I expect the ratio to exceed 20 to reach perhaps 30 or more.

 

You can play with two of the three variables (oil, gold, and ratio) and come up with the third. For example, at ratio of 30 and oil price of $50/barrel, the formula produces a gold price of $1,500/oz. I honestly have no idea what future lies, except

 

• Oil is oversold and cheap

• Gold is not expensive by historic means

• The gold-to-oil ratio will keep rising until it comes down."

 

/more: http://new.goldmau.com/article.php?id=1222

 

Update: about 20:1 : $40 x 20 = $800

001wh0.png

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GOLD/OIL RATIO : New Range (over 25!) - A Level not seen for many years

===========

 

Gold - in Barrels of WTI Crude - with gaps up

001xz6.png

 

This chart (from Goldfinger) shows brief spikes to 30 and even one to 33.

003bit8.png

That was typically followed by a collapse in the Ratio back below current levels.

 

Gold Stocks relative Oil Service Stocks : Ratio of GDX-to-OIH - w/ gap breakout

001ht6.png

 

Gold Stocks relative Major Oil Stocks : Ratio of GDX-to-XLE - w/ gap breakout

001dc4.png

 

I think that there are some relative bargains in the Oil sector, and I plan to continue a gradual shift

of my portfolio in that direction, while simulatneously boosting cash levels for a possible early March

low in stocks.

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GOLD/OIL RATIO : New Range (over 25!) - A Level not seen for many years

Lat year when oil was at 140 and the ratio was lower than the 14:1 ratio often quoted many where calling for an explosion of pog to restore the ratio. It happened the other way with the collapse of oil. The ratio was restored but in complete disregard the price of oil continued to tank.

 

The ratio is now around 18:1 and looks like the 14:1 ratio could be restored for now as gold comes down a little. If oil remained at around 50, this would put gold at 700.

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  • 2 months later...
goldtooil3nc1.png

But there's a gap down there, near 10.00 - 10.50, that wants filling.

 

Updated :

xxx

 

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