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The 2006 Dec. Tax-selling Thread - Bargain Hunt


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The Dec. Tax-selling Thread - The Hunt for Bargains

POST YOUR IDEAS HERE- on this thread ..... charts

+ + + + + + + + +

 

This year,we should look more broadly, including away from Gold shares.

 

Here's why: Gold, measured in Barrels-of-Oil is starting to look expensive

 

wticgoldvs6.png

 

THUS, the year-end list should include some Oil and Coal stocks too.

 

== ==

NOTE:

What is this about?

In North America, there is a phenomenon every year where the "weak get weaker" at year-end.

What happens is, people sell their losers to realise losses which they can offset gainst gains, and thereby lower their tax rates. Often these "losers" will bounce early in the next year because:

 

+ The extra Selling dries up after year end, and

+ People who sold out, start buying back in

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This could be good- The Canadian Trusts.

 

I Like these ... US-quoted ones:

 

TRUST COMPANY========= Symb. $ MktCap +P/E +Div/$Price : Yield% Pr/ERF

 

Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) $ 3.31Bn 8.31 2.16/$17.97 : 14.90% 0.36/.48

PrimeWest Energy Trust (PWI) $ 1.76Bn 17.4 2.61/$21.01 : 12.50% 0.45/.60

Fording Canadian Coal. (FDG) $ 3.06Bn 5.25 2.88/$20.80 : 13.80% 0.45/.71

 

CONSIDERING these also:

--Energy--

Ausum Energy (t.AUZ)

Birch Mountain (AMEX: BMD)

Derek Oil and Gas (V.DRK)

Grove Energy (v.GRV)

Harken Energy (HEC)

Truestar Pet.(v.TPC)

 

--Mining--

Alto Ventures (v.ATV)

Caledonian (t.CAL)

Kenrich Eskay (V.KRE):

MacMillan Gold (V.MMG)

Northern Lion (v.NL)

Queenstake Res. (QEE)

VanGold Resources (V.VAN)

 

--GreenEnergy--

Beacon Power (BCON)

Plug Power (PLUG) : 159442

 

--UK, timing not right--

Nautical Petr.

Quadrise

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  • 2 weeks later...

latest, and longest list of possible TAX BARGAINS... (( updated: 21 dec ))

 

TRUST COMPANY========= Symb. $ MktCap +P/E +Div/$Price : Yield% Pr/ERF

Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) $ 3.31Bn 8.31 2.16/$17.97 : 14.90% 0.36/.48

PrimeWest Energy Trust (PWI) $ 1.76Bn 17.4 2.61/$21.01 : 12.50% 0.45/.60

Fording Canadian Coal. (FDG) $ 3.06Bn 5.25 2.88/$20.80 : 13.80% 0.45/.71

 

CONSIDERING these also:

PICKS COMPANY====== :SID code : US$Price and their MktCaps. P/E-

Patch Int'l...... (PTCH.bb).. : $ 1.440 x 15.8mn = $22.7mn.bb

--Energy--

Abraxas Petroleum (ABP): 7650 : $ 3.530 x 42.7mn = $150.6mn 09.8

Ausum Energy... (v.AUZ)...... : $ 0.500 x 50.3mn = $ 25.2mn -n/a

Birch Mountain. (AMEX: BMD).. : $ 2.290 x 81.1mn = $185.7mn -n/a

Derek Oil &Gas. (V.DRK)...... : $ 0.390 x 39.7mn = $ 15.5mn -n/a

Grove Energy... (v.GRV)...... : $ 0.750 x136.8mn = $102.6mn -n/a

Grande Cache... (t.GCE)...... : $ 0.830 x 50.8mn = $ 42.1mn -n/a

Harken Energy.. (HEC)........ : $ 0.520 x221.9mn = $115.4mn 52.0

Pebercan....... (t.PBC):47134 : $ 2.850 x 73.9mn = $210.6mn 06.2

Royale Energy.. (ROYL): 10008 : $ 3.900 x0 7.9mn = $ 30.8mn 39.0

Truestar Pet... (v.TPC)...... : $ 0.130 x 88.2mn = $ 11.6mn -n/a

 

--Mining--

Alto Ventures.. (v.ATV)...... : $ 0.110 x 55.1mn = $$ 6.1mn -n/a

AmericanBonanza (BZA.t)...... : $ 0.285 x100.6mn = $ 28.7mn -n/a

Beartooth Plat. (BTP.v)...... : $ 0.090 x113.0mn = $ 10.2mn -n/a

Caledonian Mng. (CALVF)...... : $ 0.093 x458.0mn = $ 42.6mn -n/a

Celtic Minerals (v.CME)...... : $ 0.280 x 57.3mn = $ 16.0mn -n/a

Goliath Gold... (GNG.v) 313144: $ 0.285 x 42.3mn = $ 12.1mn -n/a

Golden Oasis... (V.GOT)...... : $ 0.290 x 12.4mn = $$ 3.6mn -n/a

Int'l PBX Vents (V.PBX)...... : $ 0.385 x 50.6mn = $ 19.5mn -n/a

Kenrich Eskay.. (V.KRE)...... : $ 1.060 x 60.0mn = $ 63.6mn -n/a

MacMillan Gold. (V.MMG)...... : $ 0.235 x 46.7mn = $ 11.0mn -n/a

Minterra....... (v.MTR)...... : $ 0.150 x 46.6mn = $$ 7.0mn -n/a

Moneta......... (ME.t) 46634. : $ 0.115 x 74.8mn = $$ 8.6mn -n/a

New Island Res. (NIS.v)...... : $ 0.210 x 32.6mn = $$ 6.8mn -n/a

Northern Lion.. (v.NL)....... : $ 0.225 x 28.1mn = $$ 6.3mn -n/a

Oremex......... (v.ORM)...... : $ 0.590 x 36.7mn = $ 21.8mn -n/a

Queenstake Res. (QEE)........ : $ 0.200 x583.7mn = $116.7mn -n/a

Tradewind Vent. (v.TWD)...... : $ 0.350 x 59.2mn = $ 20.7mn 17.5

VanGold Res.... (V.VAN)...... : $ 0.370 x 72.6mn = $ 26.9mn -n/a

 

--GreenEnergy--

Beacon Power... (BCON)....... : $ 1.100 x 59.4mn = $ 65.3mn -n/a

Capstone Turb.. (CPST)....... : $ 1.260 x103.9mn = $131.0mn -n/a

Green Energy Rs (GRGR)....... : $ 0.270 x n/a

Plug Power..... (PLUG) 159442 : $ 4.030 x 86.6mn = $349.1mn -n/a

WesternGeopower (V.WGP)...... : $ 0.160 x 88.1mn = $ 14.1mn -n/a

 

--UK, but fiscal timing is not right--

Nautical Petro. (NPE.L)...... :

Quadrise....... (QFI.L)...... :

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HOW DO I SELECT?

 

That's a good question.

 

Normally, i go through a process, starting by looking at as many stocks as i have time for

 

1/ I look for a stock trading in the bottom quartile of its price range over the past year

2/ I have to like the long term chart, and the decline should be starting to flatten out, with sell volume reducing

3/ I check to see how many shares are outstanding, in order to work out a MarketCap*

 

. (Note: I have just updated the Tax Bargains list, adding marketcaps, where I can find them)

 

4/ I read the chatboards, especially on active boards, like on: Stockhouse.com

5/ I consider the company's prospects, an focus on valuations measured in ratios like: MktCap per Ounce

 

((Note that: as I move through these stages, i reject more and more companies,

and fewer names are left on the final Buy List))

 

6/ I put orders in below the market, hoping to buy on a "stink bid" as sellers come in the final days of the year

 

- -

 

YES,

I am buying. But I'd rather not say which names just yet

 

And there are a few "high priority names" that I am watching that I have not yet added to the list

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  • 2 weeks later...

SHares BOUGHT - so far, with prices paid

 

Canadian

PWI.un Primewest Egy : $18.93*/ Energy, Income Trust

FDG.un Fording Coal... : $21.33*/ Coal, Income Trust .... *US$ price, will convert

 

ADB Admiral Bay Res... : $0.74 / CBM

BTP Beartooth Platinum : $0.10 / Platinum and palladium exploration, US

ELN El Nino Ventures.... : $0.42 / Base metals, Can.

GCE Grand Cache........ : $0.79 / Coal

GNG Golden Goliath...... : $0.25 / silver etc. exploration

GOT Golden Oasis......... : $0.31 / Gold exploration, Nevada

NIS New Island Resour.. : $0.21 / Crew/CRU shares and some projects

PBX International PBX V : $0.41 / Cu & base metals exploration

PCE Pacific Asia China... : $0.41 / CBM, China

TPC Truestar Petroleum. : $0.12 / Gas, Texas

VAN Vangold Res.......... : $0.39 / Gold expl. & gas prod., Globally

WGP Western Geopower : $0.16 / Geopower, US

 

US

BGP- BPI Energy.......... : $0.??

BMD- Birch Mountain..... : $2.35 / Oil Tar sands, Canada

HEC- Harken Energy...... ; $0.51 / Oil&Gas, US and Columbia

TPBV** Tropical Bev....... : $0.0035 / Beverages, California

 

- - -

**this last one, TPBV, is a complete punt. i know next to nothing about the business.

But i liked the chart, and it was irresistably cheap. I bought 1.5million shares at $0.0035 /share

That means I spent $5,250, before commission, a small part of this portfolio

 

= = =

 

here's another: CNM.un, listed at $2.00, now $0.50:

Canadian Income Management Trust

-

on second thought, and after a review: it is not cheap enough yet.

They have suspended distributions, for teh time being. And they have debentures to pay.

 

Here's the record of NAV:

 

Unaudited) Date NAVPU

28-Dec-2006.. $0.57

02-Nov-2006.. $ 0.29 (after announcement: possible tax law change)

26-Oct-2006.. $ 1.70

19-Oct-2006.. $ 1.63

13-Jul-2006.. $ 1.54

 

So much for this fund, which was supposedly "low risk".

How many other time bombs are lurking in supposed low risk portfolios??

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Has Intrepid become that cheap?

I'm glad i sold near that high. i shall have another look at its prospects

 

nice looking charts, all three. In fact, the other two look better than intrepid,

but Intrepid may be cheap enough for a punt anyway

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Guest Visiting from Canada

SUBJECT: Financing done

Post Time: 12/22/2006

 

According to the IAU website, the financing was closed today at C.70 with warrents at .90

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

TAX BARGAINS - How are we doing?

 

Frankly, less well than expected.

perhaps it is due to the selloff in comodity-related stocks that we have seen.

 

But these two, both mentioned in the CWR#2 broadcast, pretty well sum it up:

 

Golden Goliath (GNG.v) : update

bigro1.gif

 

Harken (HEC) : update

bigpe5.gif

 

i bought GNG at $0.25, so at $0.39, it's up 56%

 

i bought HEC at $0.51, and its at $0.48, down 5.9%, hurt by lower oil prices, presumeably

 

WGP is another back over the 1-yr moving average, but most of the others are languishing,

but with some modest profits

 

There's certainly still potential for the 50% gain in 8-10 years that i've seen in prior years,

but we are not there yet.

 

How are others who tried this strategy doing?

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first double?

 

here's Golden goliath (GNG.v) : $0.485 Change: +0.085

very close!

 

later:

an actual doubler is Tropical Beverages (TPBV) : chart

 

bought at $0.0035, closed today at $0.0075

 

demonstrating my point that it is not the highest quality companies that perform best

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  • 2 weeks later...

(some comments I picked up on PCE):

 

+ CBM only has value in foreign countries once offtake agreements are in place.

you can own all you want but unless there is a firm buyer and infrastructure - it is next to worthless

 

+ it is not like having established energy assets in the US or Europe

 

+ others in china like: FEEC and Green Dragon were based on a US/European market assumption.

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  • 8 months later...

Bumpin this,

as it is being discussed on a new thread (XXX)

 

Time to start looking for 2007's bargains?

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