"Gold Bars" (400 oz bars) can be used to Value Property, etc

[drbubb]

Keeping score with "Gold Bricks" (400 oz bars)

I want to simply some of my financial decision and also look at opportunities on a Global basis, and I think it might be an interesting exercise to use "Gold Bricks" as a way of measuring wealth and the prices of certain major items, such as Houses.

To start out:
What is a "Gold Brick" (GB), as used on this thread ?
That's a 400 oz. Gold bar.

At this moment, with the Gold price at $1335 /oz., 400 ounces is worth : 1 GB = $1335 x 400 = $534,000
- - - US / US$ -534,000, (at $1,335/oz.)
- - - UK / GBP-337,974, (at $1.58 )
- - - Ca./ CAD-534,000, (at C$1.00)

At the recent Gold high of $1435 /oz : 1 GB = $1435 x 400 = $574,000 / GBP-363,290

Some of the shares I am looking at:
(The following may be relatively stable against)
GLD : $130.28 , 1 GB = 4,099 GLD shares, or 41 Option contracts
PHYS : $11.69 , 1 GB = 45,680 PHYS shares
ASA-- : $30.48 , 1 GB = 17,520 ASA shares, or 175 Option contracts
FNV.t: C$28.66 , 1 GB = 18,630 FNV.t shares, or 186 Option contracts

(The following shares are less stable, when measured in GB valuations)
AAPL: 10,000 shares : AAPL-$336.10 : $3,361,000 ... 5.86 GB
SPY- : 10,000 shares : SPY - $127.72  : $1,277,200 ... 2.22 GB
QQQ : 10,000 shares : QQQ - $ 55.73 :  :  $ 557,300 ... 0.97 GB

 

How do you want to hold YOUR wealth ?

HOUSING Valuations:
========

London House (Rightmove - Dec.10): ... GBP-408,248 = 1.225 GB
UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB)
US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1,300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (MMI-88.29 x 10,000): .......... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn
Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): ........... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB

 

London Property, measured in Gold: Low was near 300oz., 0.8 GB in 2011

Updated chart:

=

> Frizzers, Moneyweek : http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-the-charts-you-love-to-hate-uk-house-prices-in-gold/

 

WHAT ELSE should I be measuring in Gold Bricks ?

== == ==
LINKS
BRIX related charts :: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=24439768

[drbubb]

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 29 2011, 01:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Some of the shares I am looking at:
(The following should be rather stable)
GLD : $130.28 , 1 GB = 4,099 GLD shares, or 41 Option contracts
PHYS : $11.69 , 1 GB = 45,680 PHYS shares
ASA-- : $30.48 , 1 GB = 17,520 ASA shares, or 175 Option contracts
FNV.t: C$28.66 , 1 GB = 18,630 FNV.t shares, or 186 Option contracts

/ CHARTS and Prices : UPDATED May 7th, 2015 /

 

The first two are meant to be gold substitutes, and they trade at a rather stable ratio to Gold.
GLD / Gold etf : enlarge / update ....... :

: GLD- : Last: $113.42

PHYS / Physical Gold etf : enlarge / update ... : vs-GLD

: PHYS: $9.78 / GLD-$113.42 (8.62%)

PHYS is the best proxy for Physical Gold, since the shares can actually be exchanged for Gold bars*. By contrast, GLD is supposedly backed by Gold, but some seek risks in that link (ie the Gold may not really be there- it may be backed by paper promises to deliver Gold.) Curiously, despite the exchange into Gold mechanism, PHYS has been more volatile, with its price getting inflated, when investors are most eager to have an exchange into physical mechanism.

There are also two equivalent shares traded in Hong Kong: (Prices as of May 7th, 2015)

HK-2840 / Gold etf - SPDR Gold Shares vs GLD : ... update ....... : virtually identical with GLD

: HK2840: HK$881.0 / GLD-$113.42 (7.767)

HK-3081 / Value Gold etf vs GLD : ... update ....... : Stores Gold in HK : N.A.V.

: HK3081: HK$28.90 / GLD-$113.42 (25.5%)
Note hold volume has dried up on HK-3801 / Mgr's description of the HK-3081 etf

OTHER Exchange-traded Gold: (US, UK, Germ., Italy, France, Neth., So.Afr., Dubai, Sing. HK, Japan):
http://www.exchangetradedgold.com/
= = = = =

ASA / ASA Corp - vs. GLD ... update ... N.A.V.

: ASA : $ 10.76 / GLD-$113.42 (9.49%)

Ratio : ASA-to-Gold : Lo-0.0100 - Hi-0.0110 / +xx.x% / mid: 0.01
= = = = =

FNV.t / Franco Nevada - vs. GLD ... update ... N.A.V.

: FNV.t : C$64.21 / GLD-$113.42 (56.61%)

Ratio : FNV.t-to-Gold : Lo-0.0100 - Hi-0.0110 / +xx.x% / mid: 0.01
= = = = =

*PHYS is the best proxy for Physical Gold, since the shares can actually be exchanged for Gold bars:
(minimum of 400 oz. redemption, or a 5% charge must be paid):
======
The PHYS redemption window is only open once a month, and it comes with a lag. Investors who want to redeem shares of the fund can submit a request to the company on the 15th of the month. If the redemption request is large enough (bigger than a single gold bar), the redemption will be processed at least in part for physical gold at NAV at the end of the month (13-15 days later). If you’re redeeming lots smaller than a physical gold bar or just want cash, you get dinged for at least 5 percent off of the value of the fund.

That’s not exactly a liquidity option. Let’s just say that market makers aren’t lining up to ride this “lightning-quick” 15-day flawed redemption process to ensure that the fund stays close to fair value. But those flaws pale in comparison with the “exciting feature” that ETFdb notes in its article: the tax treatment. According to the fund’s prospectus, “Any gains realized on the sale of units by an investor … may be taxable as long-term capital gains (at a maximum rate of 15% under current law).”

It sounds like the Holy Grail. One of the vexing problems of funds like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD) is that, no matter how long you own it, you will owe 28 percent taxes on gains because the IRS considers all gold investments to be collectibles. PHYS claims to have found a way around this problem, creating a gold bullion fund that qualifies for true long-term tax treatment. Brilliant!

/more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/191523-spr...ad-deal-to-boot

[G0ldfinger]

Why would you use bricks that are not standardized in weight (only about 400 oz).

 

Better use good old ounces, or James Turks goldgrams.

[drbubb]

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Jan 29 2011, 05:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why would you use bricks that are not standardized in weight (only about 400 oz).
Better use good old ounces, or James Turks goldgrams.

=====

By TALKING ABOUT GOLD BRICKS rather than gold bars...
I keep very much in mind that I can store my wealth in Gold-related investments (including Gold shares), and not just physical gold.

I agree.
Goldmoney is a great way to store wealth too !
see: GoldMoney

With GM, there are no arbitrage opportunities (vs. Gold), and you cannot yet use options to control Gold positions with Goldmoney.
(Although I have suggested that they considering doing this.)

In the past, I have traded around some of the arbitrage opportunities, usually making money.
For example, I owned almost one GB of PHYS, and sold it when it they price became inflated, swapping into GLW.to.
I have now sold most of my GLW.to, and am looking for ways replacing it with a new Gold proxy.

I plan to use options as a way of hedging the risk, until the downside pressure eases.

Another point is that the Unit of measure (an ounce) gives one a very different value, than the Unit of measure for large assets, such as houses. That is one reason that I prefer to look at "Gold bricks." In most countries (apart from HK), a Gold brick should represent a nice, better than average home.

[drbubb]

LESS IS KNOWN about HK's 2nd Gold etf - but it keeps its Gold stored in Hong Kong

 

Hong Kong Gets Second Gold ETF / HK:3081 "Value Gold"

 

There was one new ETF launched in Asia in the past fortnight, as Hong Kong’s Sensible Asset Management brought the territory’s second bullion tracker to market with its Value Gold ETF. The main selling point of the fund is that it’s the first physical ETF to have its underlying assets held in Asia; Hong Kong’s other gold ETF is a cross-listing of the SPDR Gold Trust, for which the custodian is HSBC in London. Fees are also slightly cheaper for the new product, with a total expense ratio of 0.35% as opposed to 0.4%.

 

Value Gold is the second ETF launched by Sensible Asset Management, a joint venture between hedge fund manager Value Partners and Chinese insurer Ping An. The first was the Value China ETF, which is based on a fundamental index of Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks. Given Value Partners’ focus on value-orientated equity strategies, the new gold vehicle looks an unusual choice for a follow-up, but the strong interest in gold among Asian investors has made some competition to SPDR issuer State Street look overdue.

 

Whether the use of a local depository and the slightly lower costs will help it take on State Street’s well-known and established product remains to be seen, but Value Gold’s first day trading of 196,000 units almost matched the 208,000 units traded on the SPDR fund’s first day on the Hong Kong exchange in July 2008. At time of writing, around one week after launch, Value Gold’s assets under management were around HK$332 million (US$43 million). SPDR doesn’t give a breakdown by listing, but its gold fund has a total of US$58 billion under management globally.

 

/see: http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/feat...tf-roundup.html

 

(2)

World's first ETF backed by gold fails to shine / November 04, 2010

 

Value Gold ETF - the first exchange-trade fund in the world backed by physical gold reserves (stored in Asia) - had a lackluster Hong Kong debut yesterday. It began trading at HK$34 and closed 5 HK cents lower. A total of 196,000 units were traded with turnover at HK$6.65 million.

 

Value Gold was listed by Sensible Asset Management, a joint venture of Ping An of China and Value Partners Group (0806). It is Value Partners' second ETF since July last year.

 

Due to fluctuations in currency markets, gold is a more stable asset for long-term investment, said non-executive director V Nee Yeh.

 

A board lot consists of 100 units with about 0.1 gram of gold per unit.

 

The fund's gold bullion is stored at the precious metals warehouse at Chek Lap Kok, said Value Partners chairman Cheah Cheng Hye.

 

/more: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&con_type=1

/ Mgr's description of the HK-3081 etf

[drbubb]

2011 BRINGS : A second etf backed by Asian Gold

ETF Securities Launches Asian Gold Shares Fund
January 14, 2011 | about: AGOL

AGOL / ETFS Asian Gold Trust vs. GLD : update : AGOL-intraday : AGOL-3mos

ETF Securities, the European-based ETF issuer famous for its lineup of physically-backed precious metal ETFs, announced further expansion of its product offering with the launch of an ETF that holds physical gold bullion in Singapore, the ETFS Physical Asian Gold Shares Trust. The new fund will trade under the symbol AGOL and will charge investors a competitive 39 basis points for its storage fees. The new product marks the fifth fund tracking the physically-backed gold market, competing with the likes of GLD, IAU, PHYS and ETF Securities’ own SGOL in the much sought after bullion ETP market.

This product will mark the first time that U.S. investors are able to invest in a product that stores gold outside of the U.S. or Europe, allowing for further diversification across geographic regions. “We are pleased to introduce the first physically backed Asian Gold ETP in the US. AGOL offers investors a new alternative to invest in the gold market and diversify their physical gold holdings into Singapore. The launch of AGOL further broadens ETF Securities product lineup and demonstrates our commitment to developing innovative precious metal ETPs.”

Much like the rest of the ETFS funds, AGOL will also incorporate a variety of programs in order to give investors piece of mind regarding their gold holdings. ETFS Physical Asian Gold Shares are backed by London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) gold bars that meet “good delivery” standards. These bars underlying AGOL will be audited bi-annually by an independent third part auditor and all gold bar numbers will be published daily at ETF Securities’ website.

Appeal Of Singapore
For investors who are growing increasingly concerned about the debt issues* in the Western world, gold storage in the Asia-Pacific region is becoming an increasingly attractive option.

/ more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/246666-etf...e_lb_author_2_t

*(and maybe confiscation and taxation issues too.)

[d2thdr]

I am glad that Bubb has come around to keep score of wealth in physical gold.

[drbubb]

QUOTE (d2thdr @ Jan 29 2011, 10:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am glad that Bubb has come around to keep score of wealth in physical gold.

I have thought of Gold as money for a long time.
But I want to simplify calculations - and look at Wealth and Global Housing prices in GB's

[d2thdr]

I have thought of Gold as money for a long time.

But I want to simplify calulations - especially Global Housing in GB's

 

I remember you saying that. I remember you mentioned about gold in one of your posts on hpc which way probably dated in 2004.

[Jake]

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 29 2011, 06:27 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Keeping score with "Gold Bricks" (400 oz bars)

HOUSING Valuations:
========
UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB)
US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (MMI-88.29 x 10,000): ......... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn
Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): ........... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB

WHAT ELSE should I be measuring in Gold Bricks ?

===== =====

Oil? Silver bricks? Acres of farmland?

[drbubb]

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 29 2011, 10:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"Oil? Silver bricks? Acres of farmland?"

 

Yes. I suppose that could work too.



A two million barrel tanker (VLCC), carries about $200 Million of Oil, that's worth about 400 GB's,
which could be the approx. value about 800 Average UK Homes (on today's price.)

Thinking this way simplifies these bigger calculations

[drbubb]

I remember you saying that.

I remember you mentioned about gold in one of your posts on hpc which way probably dated in 2004.

Yeah.

I believe I was thinking about what I then called my expectation of a "Global leveling" of living standards.

 

I was ahead of Tom Freidman, who veered off into optimistic thinking about how Globalisation would make some things cheaper, but he failed to realise that lower wages would undermine the industrial foundation of the West. (The best way to hedge that industrial decline, was to buy property in the East, since prices- and exchange rates - would be pushed up by the shift in wealth from West to East.)

 

Some Random thoughts on this

 

We may be headed back towards localisation (thanks to high oil prices making transport expensive), or if Globalisation can be saved somehow, towards a world where wages (and home prices too!) may move towards a one world market.

 

Urban homes may continue to be worth more than Rural homes (thanks to the benefits of density.)

 

But some of the massive differences we saw in home prices and wages in the 1990's and 2000's may get flattened eventually.

 

The odd thing is, we now see higher prices of property in Asia, and especially Hong Kong. If Asian currencies get pushed higher still, then these values - which look high today - will become even less sustainable.

 

Just some casual thoughts - but measuring values in a common global metric (like GB's) will make these comparisons easier, and maybe help to develop some new economic thinking.

[d2thdr]

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 29 2011, 03:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes. I suppose that could work too.



A two million barrel tanker (VLCC), carries about $200 Million of Oil, that's worth about 400 GB's,
which could be the approx. value about 800 Average UK Homes.

Thinking this way simplifies these bigger calculations

=== ===

Date: Sun Oct 05 1997 21:29
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

Everyone knows where we have been. Let's see where we are going!

It was once said that "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction". If the current price of oil doesn't change soon we will no doubt run out of gold.

This line of thinking is very real in the world today but it is never discussed openly. You see oil flow is the key to gold flow. It is the movement of gold in the hidden background that has kept oil at these low prices. Not military might, not a strong US dollar, not political pressure, no it was real gold. In very large amounts. Oil is the only commodity in the world that was large enough forgold to hide in. Noone could make the South African / Asian connection when the question was asked, "how could LBMA do so many gold deals and not impact the price". That's because oil is being partially used to pay for gold! We are going to find out that the price of gold, in terms of real money ( oil ) has gone thru the roof over these last few years. People wondered how the physical gold market could be "cornered" when it's currency price wasn't rising and no shortages were showing up? The CBs were becoming the primary suppliers by replacing openly held gold with CB certificates. This action has helped keep gold flowing during a time that trading would have locked up.

(Gold has always been funny in that way. So many people worldwide think of it as money, it tends to dry up as the price rises.) Westerners should not be too upset with the CBs actions, they are buying you time!

So why has this played out this way? In the real world some people know that gold is real wealth no matter what currency price is put on it. Around the world it is traded in huge volumes that never show up on bank statements, govt. stats., or trading graph paper.

The Western governments needed to keep the price of gold down so it could flow where they needed it to flow. The key to free up gold was simple. The Western public will not hold an asset that going nowhere, at least in currency terms. ( if one can only see value in paper currency terms then one cannot see value at all ) The problem for the CBs was that the third world has kept the gold market "bought up" by working thru South Africa! To avoid a spiking oil price the CBs first freed up the publics gold thru the issuance of various types of "paper future gold". As that selling dried up they did the only thing they could, become primary suppliers! And here we are today. In the early 1990s oil went to $30++ for reasons we all know. What isn't known is that it's price didn't drop that much. You see the trading medium changed. Oil went from $30++ to $19 + X amount of gold! Today it costs $19 + XXX amount of gold! Yes, gold has gone up and oil has stayed the same in most eyes.

Now all govts. don't get gold for oil, just a few. That's all it takes. For now! When everyone that has exchanged gold for paper finds out it's real price, in oil terms they will try to get it back. The great scramble that "Big Trader" understood may be very, very close.

Now my friends you know where we are at and with a little thought , where we are going.

[Jake]

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 29 2011, 04:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes. I suppose that could work too.



A two million barrel tanker (VLCC), carries about $200 Million of Oil, that's worth about 400 GB's,
which could be the approx. value about 800 Average UK Homes.
Thinking this way simplifies these bigger calculations

=== ===

To think that one of those silly oil tankers, which often sink, and all that dumb oil waiting to get burned up, equal the value of 400 GB's seems utterly ridiculous (to me) which says something about the price of gold or oil and the relationship of each to one another. No wonder the Saudis want gold for oil.

[drbubb]

STORING WEALTH in Gold - A worked example (UK Housing)

 

Let's look at an example:

(1)

Suppose you sold a UK property in 2001 at Pds. 72,000, and invested the proceeds in Gold Bars (GB.)

At that time, Gold was near $260, and Sterling was about $1.44, that means the Sterling Gold price was

Pds 180 per ounce, or Pds. 72,000 for a 400oz. Gold Bar, so you would have received 1.00 GB.

 

 

(2)

People would have laughed at you, while the UK HPI index rose from maybe 90,000 to over 192,000 in Aug. 2007,

at the peak. But in fact, your 1.00 x GB (400 oz. Gold Bars) would have increased nearly as fast :

 

INDEX==== : mid'01 : Aug'07

UK Housing : 90,000 to 192,490 : +113.8% : Average of Halifax & Nationwide

Gold Price : # 180.0 to # 329.1 : + 82.8% : in US$260 (at $1.444) to USUS$668 (at $2.03)

Au oz./Hse : 500.0/oz : 584.9/oz :

GB's / Hse. : 1.250 GB : 1.462 GB : + 17.0% : at Aug. 2007

 

So although the housing Bulls were laughing, you would have done okay, your 1.00 GB was worth

Pds. 131,640 in August 2007, a nice healthy 83% increase, keeping you well ahead of UK inflation.

 

(3)

Next, UK House prices fell: into early 2009:

 

INDEX==== : Aug'07 : Feb'09

UK Housing : 192,490 : 153,477 : - 20.3% :

Gold Price : # 329.1 to # 660.0 : +100.5% : in US$668 (at $2.03) to USUS$944 (at $1.43)

Au oz./Hse : 584.9/oz : 232.5/oz :

GB's /Hse. : 1.462 GB : 0.581 GB : - 60.3% : at Feb. 2008

 

Gold obviously did far better during this time - Doubling !, and the Housing bulls stopped laughing.

With housing falling too, the value of the average UK home fell by an amazing - 60% x GB in only 18 months,

that's a shocking -3.3% a month, a monumental crash in Gold-priced terms !

 

(4)

The Housing bulls, got lucky, as the BofE moved to QE and ultralow rates, triggered a bounce in housing:

 

INDEX==== : Feb '09 : Apr '10

UK Housing : 153,477 : 169,287 : + 10.3% :

Gold Price : # 660.0 to # 773.0 : + 17.1% : in US$944 (at $1.43) to US$1,175 (at $1.52)

Au oz./Hse : 232.5/oz : 219.0/oz :

GB's /Hse. : 0.581 GB : 0.548 GB : - 5.7% : at April 2009

 

But the ultra low rates helped the Gold price more than it helped UK Housing, and the price

of UK homes in Gold Bricks declined by over 5% despite the "bounce" in housing prices.

 

(5)

Since Spring 2010, Housing has exhausted its momentum, and is falling, and Gold's lead has widened :

 

INDEX==== : Apr '10 : Dec '10 :

UK Housing : 169,287 : 162,131 : - 4.23% :

Gold Price : # 773.0 to # 909.7 : +17.7% : in US$1,175 (at $1.52) to US$1,410 (at $1.55)

Au oz./Hse : 219.0/oz : 178.2/oz :

GB's /Hse. : 0.548 GB : 0.446 GB : - 18.6% : at Dec. 2010

 

For someone holding wealth in Gold Bars, the H&N Index is already more than 18% off its spring 2010 peak

 

OVERALL : You sold your House in 2001 for one Gold Bar.

Today, about ten years later, that Gold Bar is worth 2.24 UK Average Houses.

Storing wealth in Gold (when it was undervalued) was a better move than keeping it in Housing.

(Of course, I have ignored cash flow in this example, I will look at that later.)

 

== ==

 

Note: The Step #3 drop was so big, and so fast, that a bounce of some type (in Pounds terms) was not

surprising. UK House prices looked very much cheaper to someone who had "protected" their wealth.

[G0ldfinger]

Here is the same/similar story in ounces.

 

Just not sure why we need "bricks" for all these considerations.

 

[drbubb]

Here is the same/similar story in ounces.

 

Just not sure why we need "bricks" for all these considerations.

 

Bear with me... you will see in the posts to come here.

 

A key thing here, is that a middle class HOUSE or luxury flat in the Capital city of most developed countries,

is worth very approximately ONE GOLD BAR* (+/- maybe 50%.)

 

I call them "Gold bricks", because the storage mechanism need not be physical gold.

 

Thanks for the charts. I was going to ask for them.

Can I ask, if it is easy to do so, can you run one in 400 oz. Gold Bars, (ie dividing by 400.)

== == ==

 

Mon.: Rt'move : London : H&Nindex : mom : DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% :

. . .

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : £162,131 :- 0.74% :137.2% :

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 :

== : ====== : ======

AU: : $1,316 : GBP832.9 at $1.58

GB: : 526,400 : 333,160 - 400oz = 1 GB

== : ====== : ======

/Hse 0.700 GB : 1.240 GB

 

== == ==

*Back when the Gold price was fixed at $35 per oz., that implies a value of a Home in Washington DC,

or maybe New York City, or Chicago of:

 

$35 x 400 = $14,000 . It has been a long time since house prices were that cheap.

 

But at $850 per ounce (1980 peak Gold price), you get: $340,000.

Very few US homes would have been worth such a price back in 1980.

[drbubb]

LONDON Property : Better than Gold !

 

(original : Jan. 2011 post)

HOUSING Valuations:
========

London House (Rightmove - Dec.10): ... GBP-408,248 = 1.225 GB
UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB)
US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 88.29 x 10,000): ....... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn
Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): .......... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB

========

 

 

(updated : May 2015):

 

Mo: Rt'move : London: H&Nindex: mom : $Gold : 400oz : GBP/$ : GB-Gb : Lon-Gb : H&N-Gb

2010

J : : 222,261 : 407,731 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : £162,131 :- 0.74% : $1,316 : $526.4k : $1.58 : 333.2k : 1.225GB : 0.487GB

2011-peak

Aug 231,543 : 418,008 : £163,995 :- 0.74% : $1,850 : $740.0k : $1.63 : 454.0k : 0.921GB : 0.361GB

2015-now

M : : 281,752 : 580,308 : £191,212 :+0.55% : $1,180 : $472.0k : $1.49 : 316.8k : 1.832GB : 0.603GB

A. : : 286,133*: 594,585* £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,200 : $480.0k : $1.52 : 315.8k : 1.885GB : 0.0??GB

M : : 000,??0 : 000,??0 : £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,191 : $476.4k : $1.52 : 313.4k :

===

*All Time High

== : Halifax : Nat'wide : H&Nindex:

D : : 189,304 : 188,559 : £188,932 :

J. : : 192,954 : 188,446 : £190,700 : +0.94% :

F. : : 192,372 : 187,964 : £190,168 : - 0.28% :

M : : 192,970*: 189,454 : £191,212*: +0.55% :

A. : : 000,??0 : 193,048*: £000,000 :

===

 

Wow !

Almost 2 Gold Bars (400 oz) are needed - actual 1.885 Gb's - to Buy an Average London House

And the H&N Index house rose from 0.361GB to 0.603GB, that's +67.0% since Aug. 2011

 

> thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13683

 

 

HOUSING VALUATIONS - at Q1-2015:

London House (Rightmove - Mar.15):..... GBP-594,585 = 1.832 GB

UK House (H&N Index - Mar.15): ............. GBP-191,212 = 0.603 GB (or 1.66 houses per Gold-Bar)
US House (CSX20 - Feb.15-173.67 x $1300 : $225,771 = 0.470 GB ( 2.12 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 141.2 x 10,000): ...... HK$14.12 mn = 3.796 GB (or 0.26 Hs/GB) HK/7.75 = US$1.822mn
Manila 2BR (PHP8.0 milllion/44.7 ): .......... US$179,000 = 0.373 GB (or 2.43 Hs/GB)
(based on $1,200 x 400= $480k)

[drbubb]

Shares that I have tracked have also risen in value in Gold bars
(The following were thought to be relatively stable against Gold)

 

Symbol : 1/2011 : 5/2015 : Gold : 1/2011 : 5/2015 :
GLD -- : 130.28 : 113.52 : 1 GB = 04,099 : 04,197 : GLD shares
PHYS - : $11.69 : $09.78 : 1 GB = 45,680 : 48,712 : PHYS shs
ASA--- : $30.48 : $10.68 : 1 GB = 17,520 : 44,607 : ASA shs
FNV.t- : C$28.66: $65.76 : 1 GB = 18,630 : 08,802 : FNV.t shs
Gold-- > $1,316 : $ 1,191 x 400 = $476.4k> C$578.8k
=============

(The following shares were expected to be less stable, when measured in GB valuations)

 

Symbol: -Quantity : Value- 1/2011 : USD Value : --Gold-- : 5/2015 : USD Value : --Gold--
AAPL: 10,000 shs : AAPL-$033.61 : : $336.1K : 0.59GB : $125.44 : $1,254.4K : 2.63GB
SPY- : 10,000 shs : SPY--$127.72 : $1,277.2K : 2.22GB : $209.16 : $2,091.6K : 4.39GB
QQQ: 10,000 shs : QQQ -$ 55.73 : : $ 557.3K : 0.97GB : $107.47 : $1,074.7K : 2.25GB
Gold- : 00,400 oz. : Gold-$1191.0 : : $ 476.4K : 1.00GB :

[drbubb]

Updating Oil - Previously (Jan. 2011) a VLCC full of oil = 400 GB's

. . . Now the same size VLCC full of oil would cost only about 250 GB's

 

Since late-2005, GLD / Gold has outperformed OILB / Brent etf ... update

(however, keep in mind: there is more "slippage" - ie storage cost, imbedded in OILB)

 

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 29 2011, 10:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"Oil? Silver bricks? Acres of farmland?"

 

Yes. I suppose that could work too.


A two million barrel tanker (VLCC), carries about $200 Million of Oil, that's worth about 400 GB's,
which could be the approx. value about 800 Average UK Homes (on today's price.)

Thinking this way simplifies these bigger calculations

 

History:

Timing----- : WTI-oil: Gold-oz: Ratio : OILB- : WT/ob : 2mnBbl: GoldBar: -VLCC-- :

Beg.-Sep.11 : 95.00E : $1,850 : 5.14% : $63.26 : r1.50 : $190.0m : $740.0K : 257.0GB :

Beg.-Sep.12 : 100.42 : $1,780 : 5.64% : $68.00 : r1.48 : $200.8m : $712.0K : 282.0GB :

End- Aug.13 : 109.50 : $1,416 : 7.70% : $72.00 : r1.52 : $219.0m : $566.4K : 386.7GB :

Mid-June'14 : 107.00 : $1,278 : 8.37% : $75.00 : r1.43 : $215.4m : $511.2K : 421.4GB :

Mid- Mar.15 : $42.41 : $1,148 : 3.69% : $31.73 : r1.34 : $84.82m : $459.2K : 184.7GB : 2nd Lowest Oil

May.7th, '15 : $58.97 : $1,184 : 4.98% : $38.86 : r1.52 : $117.9m : $473.6K : 248.9GB :

==========

RATIO: WTI -to-Gold:

[drbubb]

(Looking back at these posts, they called the Oct. 2012 Top in GLD /Gold very accurately with these charts!

And they may help to identify the next major low):

 

Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:03 AM

GLD -
There may be some heavy resistance between here ($172) and GLD-$175

GLD : $171.47 Change: -0.27
Open: 171.03 / High: 171.69 / Low: 170.226
Volume: 8,707,693
Percent Change:-0.16%

====================

GEI source > http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16716&page=6

Compare with the subsequent GLD price evolution

This chart looks to me like Gold may make a higher low soon near GLD:$110-113

Here's another chart showing the Top then: HK-2840: $1,348 x 7.75 = $173.93 / same source

... and here's an update on HK's Gold etf, HK-2840: All-Data

[drbubb]

WHEAT - has become "cheap" : at $4.82 ... and 22.4 GB (per Panamax Cargo)

 

 

Ratio: Wheat -to-Gold : Amazingly range-bound over the last 3-years :

Is it Time to BUY Wheat? ... UK:WEAT vs DBA : +vsGLD

 

 

A Panamax ship with 60,000 tonnes of Wheat = 2.2 mn. Bushels: Today, the Cargo is worth 22.4 GB (Gold Bars)

WHEAT futures at $4.82 :

Contract : 5.000 bushels of No.2 Soft Red Wheat : at $4.82 = $24,100 per Contract

Weight- : 1 Bushel is 60 pounds

So 1 Metric Tonne ( 2,204.6 lbs) would be : 36.74 bushels

So a 60,000 DWT Panamax ship* would carry : 2.2 Million Bushels

At $4.82 per Bushel, the cargo is worth : $ 10.63 Million / ($1,187.2 x 400) or ($474.9k) = 22.4 GB

==============

Wht/Gold : 55.12 = 60,000 * 36.74 / 400 = 2.205M / 400

H : 0.570 : x5,512 : /100 = 31.41 GB

X : 0.406 : x5,512 : /100 = 22.38 GB : Current Level : $482 / $1,187.2

L : 0.380 : x5,512 : /100 = 20.94 GB (note: I use /100 because Wheat is priced in Cents)

==============

"Grains include wheat, coarse grains (corn, barley, oats, rye and sorghum) and oil seeds extracted from different crops such as soybeans and cottonseeds. In general, wheat is used for human consumption, while coarse grains are used as feed for livestock. Oil seeds are used to manufacture vegetable oil for human consumption or for industrial use, while their protein-rich residue is used as a raw material in animal feed.

Total grain production is dominated by the United States. Argentina is the second largest producer followed by Canada and Australia. In terms of imports, the Asia/Pacific region (excluding Japan) ranks first, followed by Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. The principal vessel classes used in the grain trade are Panamax and Handymax."

> http://www.gencoshipping.com/industry.html

[drbubb]

Anyone else think that UK House prices in Gold is possibly drawing out a Head & Shoulders pattern?

 

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

 

The Rally may be ending

[drbubb]

London Property, measured in Gold

 

 

> source: Frizzers, Moneyweek: http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-the-charts-you-love-to-hate-uk-house-prices-in-gold/

[drbubb]

 

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 29 2011, 06:27 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Keeping score with "Gold Bricks" (400 oz bars)

 

HOUSING Valuations:

========

UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB)

US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB)

HK Lux. Flat (MMI-88.29 x 10,000): ......... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn

Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): ........... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB

 

Updating... coincidentally, at the same Gold price as 2010/11:

 

Global HOUSING Valuations:

========================................... : Late 2010: in Gold Bars / 1st H. 2016 : - Gold Bars : NOTES

UK House (H&N Index - Dec.2010): ............ GBP 162,131 = 0.480 GB / Gbp 207,379 = 0.622 GB (1.61 houses per Gold Bar)

US House (CSX20 Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : US $191,737 = 0.359 GB / Usd 237,627 = 0.485 GB ( 2.06 Hs. per GB/ 182.79, Feb. 2016)

Philadelphia House: (Dec. 2010)................ : US $125,000 = 0.255 GB / Usd 148,400 = 0.303 GB ( 3.30 Hs. per GB, May 2016)

HK Lux. Flat (MMI-88.29 x 10,000): ............. HK $8.83 mn = 2.125 GB / HK $12.81mn = 3.366 GB /7.76: US$1.650mn (MMI-128.14, 5/16)

Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): ............ US $490,200 = 0.928 GB / Usd

Makati Lux. (P106.1k x60sm /43.5 ): ............ US $146,345 = 0.298 GB / Usd 194,004 = 0.396 GB / 46.7: P 9.060 mn (P151.0k x60, q1.16)

Gold Price, in USD ..................................... : US$1,226/oz. : Jan. 2011 / US$1,226/oz. : 5/26/2016 /1.471 = GBP: 833.4

=========

UK House: (GBP 212,321: Halifax, Apr. : 202,436, Nationwide, Apr.) : GBP 207,379 : H&N, Apr.2016

 

During the approx. 5 year period, Gold prices first rose about 50%, then fell back to where they started, meantime:

Most Global housing rose in value, with Hong Kong property having one of the greatest gains, from HK$ 8.83mn > 12.81mn : +45.1%