drbubb Posted December 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 BONDS : who is crazy? Low could already be in place at 111... OR ? TLT : 10-yrs : last: 119.17 , 2.69% / TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%) / TYX: 3.114% (YrH: 3.455%) TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%) Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: December 17, 2018 at 12:35 pm Hey Phil Did you hear Gundlach laughingly says he tells his friends that 10Treas could hit 6%, and they all tell him he’s crazy? Reply Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: December 17, 2018 at 12:53 pm https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/17/jeffrey-gundlach-federal-reserve-should-not-raise-interest-rates-december-jay-powell.html fionamargaret says: December 17, 2018 at 1:22 pm …and JNJ which CNBC is discussing…..down to 107… Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: when it rains, it pours. GS, same stuff. Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: Gundlach says 6% in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2022 BONDS : LQD vs TLT. .... from: Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: / 30Yr.Yield LQD : Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF. : 111.76 -1.74, -1.36% TLT : iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF : 115.37 -3.25, -2.74% . In fact there was a huge 5point, drop followed by a 1.36 point rally, that's 27% rally. A big gap down is still intact LQD was down big, but less violently than TLT. These are both big trades. TLT has 48.36 Million volume; and LQD had 34.35 Million RATIO Longer term rates squirted up... Now over 3% TYX / CBOE 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield Index ... Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60, / 30Yr.Yield mid-2019: 10d / 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60, === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2022 Long Term Bond Charts - An important Low? TLT / 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: YtD: 10d / $115.71 / yr.L: 112.62 +2.74% TLT All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: YtD: 10d / $115.71 LQD / Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: YtD: 10d / $111.67 / yr.L: 110.19 +1.34% LQD / ... All: 10yr: 5yr: / $111.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2022 As I make this Post about a possible LOW in Bonds, I saw this... UGA / Unleaded Gasoline etf... update : 10d/ Last: $62.68 vs YrH: $67.83, - 7.60% Gasoline Prices Reach a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH Under Joe Biden at $4.37 per Gallon — Second All-Time High in Two Months! The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline today is at $4.37 a gallon. Gas prices have doubled since the 2020 election. Gas was $2.11 a gallon back in November 2020. It is now $4.37 a gallon today. > https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/gas-prices-reach-new-time-high-joe-biden-4-37-per-gallon-second-time-high-two-months/ Even as these sorts of headline stories are coming out, a peak in Gasoline prices may have just been made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2022 "Inflation Has Peaked": Here's What To Expect In Today's CPI Report With the massively illiquid market poised on the edge of the negative gamma abyss, today's CPI print could easily crash stocks if the number is above the consensus estimate of 8.1% (for headline, 6.0% for core), or alternatively could spark a huge bear market short squeeze. The extremely binary outcome is why there has been so little conviction and liquidity in stocks in recent days, as few traders were willing to put on material risk ahead of the print. So what to expect? Here, opinions differ with most forecasting that inflation will have peaked in March largely due to base effects, however, the rate of its decline from here on out is unclear. According to JPM economists, energy prices look to have come off somewhat in April following their March surge, and he believes that the energy CPI declined 0.2% in April. But this decline could be offset by another strong increase in food prices (forecast: 0.8%) and another solid gain for the ex.-food and energy core index (forecast: 0.39%). While JPM's headline forecast is above consensus, its core view is below: in April, JPM expects core CPI to drop from 6.5% to a still-strong 5.9%... > https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-has-peaked-heres-what-expect-tomorrows-cpi-report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2022 Bidenflation Booms; CPI prices Up 8.3% Grocery Store Prices Up 10.8%, Most in Nearly 42 Years as Americans Face Higher Prices on Hamburger Meat, Baby Food, Chicken, Bacon, Soup, and Coffee It got even more difficult in April for American families to put food on the kitchen table in January. Food prices rose 9.4 compared with a year earlier, data from the Department of Labor showed on Wednesday. That is the fastest rate of inflation for food since 1981. Grocery store prices were up by even more, 10.8 percent. The broader Consumer Price Index rose by 8.3 percent. Inflation is now not only running high but it has broadened to an economy-wide phenomenon. Even the kitchen table itself is more expensive. Prices for the category of “living room, kitchen, and dining room” furniture are up 14.9 percent compared with a year ago. They rose 1.1 percent compared with March. > https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/05/11/grocery-store-prices-up-10-8-most-in-nearly-42-years-as-americans-face-higher-prices-on-hamburger-meat-baby-food-chicken-bacon-soup/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2022 Mood On Wall Street Has Never Been More Apocalyptic; Tech Short Is Biggest Since 2006 One month after the April Fund Manager Survey was downright "apocalyptic" with the majority seeing a bear market and stagflation - yet nobody rushing to sell - and with optimism plunging to levels right before Lehman, today Bank of America published the latest, May FMS (available to pro subscribers in the usual place) in which the bank's doom-and-gloomy Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett (who most recently warned that the bear market will end when the S&P hits 3,000 in October) found that his view is shared by a growing number of even more apocalyptic Wall Street professionals, because the survey which polled 331 panelists managing $986 billion in AUM, revealed global growth expectations plunged even more compared to last month, and dropped to fresh all-time lows (net -72%) ... The next part came as a surprise to us, because it confirms that peak inflation is now consensus: that's because 68% expect inflation rates to drop coming quarters... ... with fewer and fewer (net 34%, down from 53% in April) expect bond yields to rise from here (but big difference with prior “big lows” Is 78% expect short rates to rise)... ... as investors still expect a total of 7.9 Fed hikes this cycle (up from 7.4 in April). Ther... > https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-wall-street-has-never-been-more-apocalyptic-tech-short-biggest-2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2022 Daneric: Bonds are due Bonds are due for a bid, the wave count supports it. > https://danericselliottwaves.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2022 TNX - 10yr TBond rate: 30.35 = 3.035% .. 5yr: 5yr: David Hunter. @DaveHcontrarian I think the dollar is putting in a double top & poised to roll over. The 10yr yield is also poised to rollover & head for 2%.Lower USD & rates will help propel gold,silver & miners to much higher levels. Gold to $3000,silver to $50,GDX to $65,GDXJ to $100,SIL to $75 & SILJ to 35 David Hunter Aug 24 Many signs we're in recession w/economy continuing to decelerate.Composite PMIs at 45,housing rolling over fast,retail is weak,labor conditions are deteriorating.Overseas is even worse.And inflation is rolling over & likely will surprise on the downside.Fed will pause this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2022 "BONDS: Low coming in Q2-2022?" Prediction is Working... so far. YTD: TLT LOW for this year (so far) was $108.12 on 6.16.22 / Last: $113.62 +0.85 TLT-All : Excellent discussion here on Debt Markets, and Fed Actions He says: "Fed will destroy its credibility if it moves from a 2% target to 4% target" Alfonso Peccatiello: Inflation is Destroying the Fed's Credibility Direction ahead is NEGATIVE with a lag of several months. The money isn't there to spend... and the Jobs market will be weak HARD LANDING AHEAD? Direction ahead is NEGATIVE with a lag of several months. The money isn't there to spend... and the Jobs market will be weak. The FED PUT from stocks will require a bigger drop in stocks than in the past. The way that a Fed Pivot might happen quicker would be thru a drop in Jobs and the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2022 NEW LOW in TLT / Bonds TLT / 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ... ALL: Last: $107.49, -2.73 / TYX : 3.48% +0.134, +4.1% z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2022 The problem for Stocks is Weak Bonds! If TLT falls <$100, Stocks will likely break Key support. YTD: 3m: 10d: qqq: 269.10 / tlt: 100.99=2.66x, spy: 363 SPY - $360: Such a Key Level ! Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79 -10.41, -2.8% dayL: 360.94, 987d.MA: $357 All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79 QQQ / Invesco QQQ Trust, is Also ON KEY SUPPORT Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $269.10 -10.66, -3.8% dayL: 267.10, 987d.MA: $270 x TLT / Tbonds etf.. ALL: Ratio: 360 / 100 = 3.60%. Bonds are cheaper than Stocks (SPY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 17, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2023 TYX / US 30 Year Bond rates. ... 3yr: 1yr / Last: 39.42 = 3.942%, Range: 20.70 to 44.25 TNX / US Ten Year Note rates . 10yr; 3yrL: 1yr: 10d: Last: 38.43 > 3.843% Range: 16.82 to 43.33 10yr; Q: HAVE RATES PEAKED? VIBER CHAT - in answer to a Question about whether ST rates have peaked, I wrote: "Short term rates in the US and Phl, are still under upwards pressure. I think that upwards pressure may ease within the next month or so. ( My view may be wrong, of course, but I am now betting/ investing on the notion that LT rates in the US have already peaked... back in Oct.2022, when. 30 yr rates hit. 4.36%, and the 10yr Note hit. 4.425%". ... Look at the chart above (TYX- is 10x the 30 yr Bond rate, and TNX - is 10x the 10 year Note rate.). > Scroll down for charts and Historical datas > PHL REIT thread, pg2 : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 21, 2023 MELT-up Update: vs'22 Low: SPY: 418.62 /348.11 +20.2%, QQQ: 336.51 /254.26 +32.3%, TLT: 101.10 /91.85: +10.1% :5.19 Minor melt-up in Stocks (so far), with NO Help (in 2022) from TLT/ Bonds MELT-UP seen best in Ratio... The fall in bonds is news driven. Lower inflation might have helped bonds but the debt ceiling impass has overwhelmed that positive news. Deadline is now tight for debt ceiling talks. The outcome could and maybe should be positive for bonds. But fears persist that we will see an ugly standoff for a while longer "Not pay its Bills"? "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US is unlikely to reach mid-June and still be able to pay its bills, underscoring the urgency of the White House reaching a deal with Republicans to raise the debt limit. " //. There is a plan on the table. Biden and the Dems should accept it. If not, focus on paying interest and maturing debt. There is plenty of Tax income for that, over 20% of US GDP. Dems need to cut some of the crazy over-spending, and maybe stop illegally handing Money to Ukraine. Discipline is good for the US credit rating in the long run, whatever the slow-speaking grandmother says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 TLT / Bonds Rising: Oct.22: 1/22: Jan.20: Ytd: 10d: 101.89 +1.06 From Jan.22: from Jan.20: == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 4, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2023 Long Bond may be at/ near the very long term bottom TLT /Treasuries, Long Term : 85.06. (R: 84.885 to 109.68), TYX: 49.37, 4.94%, (R: 34.13 to 49.50) === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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