Philippine REITS & Div. Yields

[drbubb]

Philippine REIT Stocks, 2023 updates

4xREITs: from 7.1.22: +FLI: +Vreit: 8.22.22: Ytd: 10d /                                                         --> S-Ltr: 10d: BL:

REIT Dashboard, 1.27 
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR : Filrt :
=== 35.85: 14.76: P6.06: 5.80
Div.  P1.93 : .974 : . 383: .404
Yld.5.38%:6.60%: 6.32%:6.97%
Aver.= 6.32%,  Phl10yr: 6.12%
TLT,  :  TYX = Us,LT : Prem.
106.71,36.33=-3.63%: 2.72%
Compare:
YE’22>6.52% -3.92%: 2.60%
11.30 >6.79% -3.80%: 2.99%

Quiet week, with Div.Yield -0.06%, and Phl.10yr -0.13%

PHL Govt Bond Yields : 10-20yr: ye'22: 6.98%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem.
12.23: 34.70: 12.80: P5.79 : P5.24= 6.87%v6.97% 102.2= 3.83%: 3.04%
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50= 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%: 2.60%
01.06:  35.20: 13.70: P5.75 : P5.50= 6.65%v 7.21% 105.2= 3.69%: 2.96%
01.13:  36.00: 15.32: P5.79 : P5.47= 6.43%v6.43% 106.8= 3.62%: 2.81%
01.20:  36.10: 14.48: P6.05 : P5.70= 6.38%v6.25% 106.2= 3.66%: 2.72%
01.27:  35.85: 14.76: P6.06 : P5.80= 6.32%v6.12% 106.7= 3.63%: 2.69%
====

Rising Rates= Falling TLT Trend reversed in Oct, helping PHL REITs

4xREITS vs. TLT: from Mar'21: Mar'22: May'22: Filrt: YTD: 10d / 12.14.22: 5.89 / 107.70 = 5.47%

"Benchmark" REIT stocks vs.TLT/Bonds:  Mar'22: Jul'22: Filrt: YTD: 10d / 11.30.22

Yield History, updated : End Nov.

DATABANK - Four REITS, highest Ave.Yield: 7.57%

Stk.: Areit : Mreit :  RCR :  Filrt  :  = Aver.  :  TLT  :  TYX :
Old : P1.93 : .980 :  .386 : .428  :
New P1.93 : .974 : . 383 : .404  : = =====> as: end Nov
Oct.: 31.00: 12.56: P5.05:  5.70 : = ==== :   96.80,  41.29.
>dv.: 6.23%:7.80%:7.66%: 7.46% =  7.29%  -4.13%= 3.16%
Nov.: 36.20: 11.84: P5.95:  5.67 : = ==== :   102.7,  38.03.
>dv.: 5.33%:8.23%:6.44%: 7.12% =  6.78% -3.80%= 2.98%
Yr.L : 30.55: 11.20: P4.80:  5.50 : = ==== :   91.85,  44.25. > Yr.L thru Nov.
>dv.: 6.32%:8.70%:8.04%: 7.73% =  7.70% -4.42%= 3.28%
DASHBOARD: Div Yields
==: Phl.10yr AveDiv -TYX : Prem.
YE’21: 4.80E: 4.95% -1.91%: 3.04%
  6.30: 7.00E:  6.12% -3.12%: 3.00%
  9.30: 7.09% 6.70% -3.77%: 2.93%
10.30: 7.50% 7.29%  -4.13%: 3.16%
11.30:  7.03% 6.78% -3.80%: 2.99%
YE'22: 6.97% 6.87% -3.83%: 3.04%
Ja23: 6.12%  6.32% -3.63%: 2.69%

#1: TLT/ Bond etf versus "cheap" Reits and Developer stocks ...  from 2016: 2020: Ytd:

====

[drbubb]

GLOBAL Market bellwethers?  Phm leads, then XHB, then TLT?

PULTE the LEADER?: Compare. TLT, and US HomeBuilder index (XHB)

TLT v. XHB (Home Builder Idx, Pulte): 2021: '22: (12.23.22) 102.16, 60.83 (59.5%), ;

prev. (9.02.22) 110.22. 59.38 (53.9%), 40.45 (36.7%)

4yr:

RATIO: PHM to TLT: 42.7% - could drop as US Housing demand fades

[drbubb]

UNDER PRESSURE:  FILRT and MREIT have been under pressure recently. DDMPR too!

Divs in 2022 : ex-div. Dates
FILRT    : 2-24: 0.112,  5-03: 0.116,  8-25: 0.088, 11-25: 0.088 = 0.404 / P5.59= 7.23%
MREIT  : 3-15: .2399, 5-04: 0.243, 8-16: .2468, 11-22: .2444 = 0.974 /  P11.98= 8.13%
DDMPR: 5-16: .0278, 6-03: .0279, 8-25: .0273, 12-07: .0273 = 0.1103 /  P1.27= 8.68%

REIT Dashboard, 12.09 
4stk: Areit: Mreit:  RCR:  Filrt :
=== 35.20: 11.98: P5.81: 5.59
Div.  P1.93 : .974 : . 383: .404
Yld. 5.48%:8.13%:6.59%:7.23%
Aver.= 6.86%
 TLT  :   TYX =  ------ : Prem.
106.3, 35.49=-3.55%: 3.31%
11.30: Y6.78%-3.80%: 2.99%

FILRT / Filinvest Reit ...       All: Ytd: 10d: Update, 12.23.22: 0.404 on P 5.24 is 7.71% estimated Yield

Previous: (12.09.22): 0.404 on P 5.59 is 7.23% estimated Yield

MREIT / Megaworld Reit ... All: Ytd: 10d: (12.22.22): 0.974 on P12.80 is 7.61% estimated Yield

Prev. (12.09.22):  0.974 on P11.98 is 8.13% estimated Yield

DDMPR / Double Dragon Reit ...       All: Ytd: 10d: 0.1103 on P1.27 is 8.69% estimated Yield

[drbubb]

Rising Rates= Falling TLT Trend reversed in Oct, helping PHL REITs

Phl REITs vs. TLT: from Mar'21: Mar'22: Jul'22: Filrt: YTD: 10d / 12.14.22: 5.89 / 107.70 = 5.47%

[drbubb]

DASHBOARD: Phl.REITs vs. US Bond Yield, updating weekly....

Dash : Areit : Mreit :  RCR :  Filrt : TLT : Phl10yr =AveDv -TYX: Prem.
YE’21 48.60: 19.70: P7.61:  P7.40: 146.2: 4.80e: 4.95% 1.91%: 3.04%
  6.30: 34.90: 15.20: P6.20: P6.80: 114.9:  7.00e:  6.12%  3.12%: 3.00%
  9.30: 34.00: 14.00: P5.31 : P6.20: 102.5: 7.09%: 6.70% 3.77%: 2.93%
10.30: 31.00: 12.56: P5.05 : P5.70: 96.80: 7.50%:  7.29% 4.13%: 3.16%
11.30 : 36.20: 11.84: P5.95 : P5.67: 102.7 : 7.03%: 6.78% 3.80%: 2.99%
12.09: 35.20: 11.98:  P5.81 : P5.59: 106.3 : 6.76%: 6.86% 3.55%: 3.31%
12.16 : 36.00: 11.80: P5.89 : P5.26: 108.3 : 6.80%: 6.95% 3.50%: 3.45%
12.23: 34.70: 12.80: P5.79 : P5.24: 102.2 : 6.97%: 6.87% 3.83%: 3.04%
====
>yrE:-28.6%-35.0%-23.9%-29.2%-30.1%+45.2%+38.8%+101.%

==: Phl.10yr AveDiv -TYX : Prem.
YE’21: 4.80E: 4.95% -1.91%: 3.04%
  6.30: 7.00E:  6.12% -3.12%: 3.00%
  9.30: 7.09% 6.70% -3.77%: 2.93%
10.30: 7.50% 7.29%  -4.13%: 3.16%
11.30:  7.03% 6.78% -3.80%: 2.99%
12.09: 6.76%.6.86% -3.55%: 3.31%
12.16:  6.80% 6.95% -3.51%: 3.44%
12.23: 6.97% 6.87% -3.83%: 3.04%
>yrE: 45.2%+38.8%: +101.%: unch.

[drbubb]

FilInvest REIT slides to a New Low.  Today's Low was closing level of: 5.26

FILRT etc... All: 1yr: YTD: 10d / Last: P5.26 -0.14 /TLT-108.3= 4.86%-of TLT, reported Yield: 7.68% (div: 0.404)

Thanks to the Jump in the FILRT Yield, 4x Phl. Reit ave.Div. Yield may go to a 3.45% Prem. to TYX.

Having said that, I do not yet know where TYX will close in NY trading today.

REIT Dashboard, 12.16 
4stk: Areit: Mreit:  RCR : Filrt :
=== 36.00: 11.80: P5.89: 5.26
Div.  P1.93 : .974 : . 383: .404
Yld. 5.36%:8.25%:6.50%:7.68%
Aver.= 6.95%
 TLT  :   TYX =  ------ : Prem.
108.3, 34.96=-3.50%: 3.45%
11.30: Y6.78%-3.80%: 2.99%
====

[drbubb]

BOUNCE in Bond Yields, slowed gains in REITS

TYX / xx ... 3mo: Ytd: 10d: 30.00 +0.000 = 3.00% ... TMF: 3mo: $9.08/. Feb$10P: $1.40, Feb$9P: $0.80

TMF: 3mo: Ytd: 10d / $9.08 -0.51, -5.29% / Feb$10P: $1.40, Feb$9P: $0.80

RCR-etc: 5.78 / TLT (105.31): R-5.49%, Areit: 35.70, Mreit: 12.00, FILrt: 5.30 ... 3mo: Ytd: 10d: 

[drbubb]

MREIT has had a nice Rally to P12.96, and then closed at P12.80, +P0.46, +3.73%

MREIT / Megaworld REIT... All: Ytd: 10d /

===

[drbubb]

This is INTERESTING!
DASHBOARD: REIT Div Yields
==: Phl.10yr AveDiv.  -TYX: Prem.
YE’21: 4.80E: 4.95% -1.91%: 3.04%
  6.30: 7.00E:  6.12% -3.12%: 3.00%
  9.30: 7.09%  6.70% -3.77%: 2.93%
10.30: 7.50%  7.29%  -4.13%: 3.16%
11.30:  7.03% 6.78% -3.80%: 2.99%
12.09: 6.76%.6.86% -3.55%: 3.31%
12.16:  6.80% 6.95% -3.51%: 3.44%
12.23: 6.97% 6.87% -3.83%: 3.04%
>yrE: 45.2%+38.8%: +101.%: unch=

US Bond Yields DOUBLED in 2022, from 1.91% to 3.83%. 

That alone is very unusual through decades of history.  Meantime, Phil. Govt 10 year rates were up 45.2% t0 6.97%, and the Average Dividend of my portfolio of 4 REIT stocks (Areit, Mreit. Filrt, and RCR) - was up 38.8% to 6.87% during the last 12 months.

PREMIUM:  An interesting thing here is that REIT Div. Yield "rode along" at a 3.0-3.5% premium to the US Bond yield.   Watching these numbers week-to-week and Day-to-day can help investors spot good trading opportunities.  As an example, one of my largest REIT positions is MREIT, which rose 8.5% to P12.80 in the last week.  I am making a profit with that position, and have locked in a high dividend yield with my MREIT investment.  (You can see on this thread how I observed and commented on that stock.)

 

[drbubb]

BOND YIELDS DOUBLED in 2022

TYX / CBOE 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield Index ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / 38.27 +1.04. (tlt: 102.16, tmf: 8.27)

Long Term Bond yields DOUBLED in 2022 - see TYX above/.  YE'2021 : 1.91%.  Christmas 2022: 3.83%

- this obviously has a big impact on important US Homebuilding sector: "Existing home sales are down 35.4 percent over the last 12 months.  That is the largest year over year decline in existing home sales since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

+ Homebuilder sentiment has now dropped for 12 consecutive months.
+ Home construction costs have risen more than 30 percent since the beginning of 2022.
+ The number of single-family housing unit permits has fallen for nine months in a row.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index has plunged “to a reading of negative 11.2 in December”.  That figure was way, way below expectations..." 

- from: 15 Facts Which Prove That a Massive Economic Meltdown Is Already Happening Right Now. > https://ourgoldguy.com/2022/12/24/15-facts-which-prove-that-a-massive-economic-meltdown-is-already-happening-right-now/

TLT v. XHB (Home Builder Idx, Pulte): 2021: '22: (12.23.22) 102.16, 60.83 (59.5%), 45.79 (44.8%);

prev. (12.01.22) 105.76. 63.06 (59.6%), 45.15 (42.7%)

prev. ( 9.02.22) 110.22. 59.38 (53.9%), 40.45 (36.7%)

[drbubb]

4x REITS. 10.15.21: 8.22.22: Ytd/ Areit: 34.70,

RCR: 5.79 (16.7%), Mreit: 12.80 (36.9%), Filrt: 5.24 (15.1%)

From 10.15.21:

===

[drbubb]

Vista Group : VLL and VREIT

VLL vs.Vreit: All: 10d: 1.51 / 1.59 = 95.0%

VLL/ Vista Land: All: 5yrW: Ytd: 10d/ P1.51, BV: 8.61, PER:2.65, Yield: 1.93%  x 12.7B sh= P19.2Bn.MktCp

VReit/ VistaREIT: All: 1yr: vs-TLT: 10d/ P1.59, Div.0.021x4= 0.084, Yield: 5.28%  x ???B sh= P??Bn.

VistaREIT traces its roots to Vista One, Inc., which was incorporated on August 24, 2020 to engage in the business of leasing income-generating real properties. The company did not have any business operations until the execution of transactions that infused assets to its property portfolio. On April 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved several amendments to the company's Articles of Incorporation, including the change of its corporate name andprimary purpose to reflect its transition towards the business of a REIT. The company debuted on the Philippine Stock Exchange on June 15, 2022.

DIV2. Php. 0.0361 Record.Date; Nov,28, 2022; Pmt. 12.19.2022
DIV1. Php. 0.0210 Record Date: Aug 30, 2022; Pmt. 09.20.2022

0.0361 = Php.271.18M: is 7,512 M sh.  : /1.59, 9,06%
0.0210 = Php.157.65M: is 7,507 M sh. :  /1.59, 5.28%

Note; Offering 2.75B shs x1.60E = 4.4B actual: 3.367B (1.00)
2.75B / 7.51B = 36.6% sold off. 63.4% retained ?

4.76B Vreit (1.59) = P 7,57B worth of Vreit shs.
If 0.144 per sh x 4.76B= P 685M p.a. received pa.by VLL?
Compare: VLL has 12.7B sh x 0.029 = pays 368M Divs. pa

Every VLL sh. is backed by 37.5% of a VREIT sh.   9% x 37.5%=  3.38% incoming er VLL sh.

[drbubb]

REIT Dashboard, 12.30 
4stk: Areit: Mreit:  RCR : Filrt :
=== 35.40: 14.48: P5.85: 5.50
Div.   P1.93 : .974 : . 383: .404
Yld.5.45%:6.73%: 6.55%:7.35%
Aver.= 6.52%, Phl10yr: 6.98%
 TLT,  :   TYX = Us-LT : Prem.
100.68,39.24=-3.92%: 2.60%
11.30>:38.22=-3.80%: 2.99%

P1.68 jump in MREIT reduced Div.Yield,
again, despite rising US Yields. Prem.V

12.23: 34.70: 12.80: P5.79 : P5.24= 6.87%v6.97% 102.2= 3.83%: 3.04%
12.30: 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50= 6.52%v6.98% 100.7= 3.92%: 2.60%

The MREIT Move came at the end of the Day - last trading day of the year.

MREIT closed at P14.48, +P1.54, +11.9% (> 6.73% yield)... / Megaworld REIT... All: Ytd: 10d /

Ytd:

 

[drbubb]

May add these too.  As Dividend-paying stocks to monitor

Looking at these charts…
FB. : SanM.Food, bev.   4.70%
GLO: Globe Telecom.    4.90%
LTG: LT Group              15.73%
MER: Manila Electric.    5.70%
MBT: Metrobank           5.42%
TEL: PLDT                      5.28%

> more: XXX

[drbubb]

PHL 10 Year Bond Yieids JUMP in New Year

Meantime, US LT Bond yields eased in the New Year : TYX is 10x LT Bond rate

[drbubb]

VREIT vs. VLL. fr.July'22: All: 1yr: 10d / VLL:1.96 / P1.70= 115.3% (VLL R: 1.39 to 3.52)/ (1.47 to 1.77) 1.27.23

----------------------  OLD (YE'2022) : VLL:1.69 / P1.65= 102.4% (VLL R: 1.39 to 3.55)/ (Vreit R: 1.47 to 1.77)

VLL (P1.69, 102.4%), VREIT (P1.65)... vreit/ TLT ($105.18)= 1.57% :  from 12.11.2007: 1yr: 6mo: 10d

Here's a chart that made me want dig deeper.   B.V. 8.61         ... Update: Oct.'22 > Jan.'23

VLL/ Vista Land. ALL: 10yr: 5yr /1.96 >P1.69. PER: 3.52 > 2.96x... 52 Wk. range: (1.85 - 3.88

) > 1.39 to 3.55

[drbubb]

• NEWS, Rate and Debt related
• Nov. trade deficit widest in 2 months; imports fall for first time in almost 2 years January 10, 2023 | 9:55 am
• PHL to raise at least $1.5B from dollar bonds January 10, 2023 | 12:34 am
• Philippines to see decline in debt burden in 2023 January 10, 2023 | 12:32 am

[drbubb]

Market Intelligence | Dec.21, 2022 | AREIT sets growth target for gross leasable area and IWG aims for expansion

AREIT, Inc. is planning to grow its assets at an average of 100,000 square meters (sq.m.) of gross leasable area annually from 2023 to 2025, the company said on Tuesday.  In its three-year investment strategy, AREIT said that the target will increase its assets under management by P10 billion to P15 billion yearly.

Previously, AREIT set a growth target of P60-billion assets under management two years after its maiden listing at the Philippine Stock Exchange on Aug. 13, 2020, from an initial P30 billion.

To date, these assets reached P54 billion and are projected to reach P64 billion upon the infusion of Ayala Land, Inc.’s Cebu assets. The transfer of the assets in Cebu will be through a property-for-shares swap and will increase AREIT’s portfolio to 673,000 sq.m. The swap will increase Ayala Land’s stake in AREIT by 5.65 basis points to 66.23%.

Meanwhile, the company said that it would diversify into other asset classes including shopping malls as it bets on the recovery and reopening of the economy.

Also, among its three-year objectives is to achieve a 10% to 12% total shareholder return through organic growth and new acquisitions.

Read more

[drbubb]

Philippine REITS, 2023 updates

4xREITs: from 7.1.22: +FLI:  8.22.22: Ytd: 10d /                                                                   --> S-Ltr: 10d: BL:

REIT Dashboard, 1.13 
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR : Filrt :
=== 36.00: 15.32: P5.79: 5.47
Div.  P1.93 : .974 : . 383: .404
Yld.5.36%: 6.36%: 6.61%:7.39%
Aver.= 6.43%,  Phl10yr: 6.43%
 TLT,  :  TYX = Us,LT : Prem.
106.75,36.23=-3.62%: 2.81%
Compare:
YE’22>6.52% -3.92%: 2.60%
11.30 >6.79% -3.80%: 2.99%

Mreit up 1.62. AveDiv. -0.22%
Big 0.78% drop in Php.10yr.

PHL Govt Bond Yields : 10-20yr: ye'22: 7.00-7.30est

12.23: 34.70: 12.80: P5.79 : P5.24= 6.87%v6.97% 102.2= 3.83%: 3.04%
12.30: 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50= 6.52%v6.98% 100.7= 3.92%: 2.60%
01.06:  35.20: 13.70: P5.75 : P5.50= 6.65%v 7.21% 105.2= 3.69%: 2.96%
01.13:  36.00: 15.32: P5.79 : P5.47= 6.43%v6.43% 106.8= 3.62%: 2.81%

[drbubb]

MREIT Highlights

> source, pg28 :