Philippine REITS & Div. Yields

[drbubb]

Phl REITs / Philippine REIT Stocks, 2023 updates.           (pg.3)

RCR vs.TLT: F,V: Jul'22: YTD: 10d / TLT:  Y.Curve       -> S-Ltr: 10d: BL: M-Sh:

US.Yield.Curve : 2yr: 4.75%, 10yr: 3.74%, 30yr: 3.82%  at 6.23

REIT Dashboard, 6.23
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 34.85: 14.88: P5.65: 3.91
Div.  P2.02 : .982 :  .390: .318:
Yld: 5.79%:6.60%: 6.90%:8.13%
Rpt: 5.97%:6.60%: 6.90%:8.13%
4Ave.= 6.86%, 6Ave.=7.18%
Ph10yr 6.37%, 5yr: 6.20%
+VREIT : 1.68, .13E, 7.74% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.27, .10E, 7.87% (N/A
TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
103.33, 38.21=-3.82: 3.04% prev.2.72%
Comment: Ave. REIT yield up
+0.28% on 0.13% rise in Phl. 10yr.

REIT Dashboard, 6.16
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 34.00: 15.90: P5.90: 4.20:
Div.  P2.02 : .982 :  .390: .318:
Yld: 5.94%: 6.18%: 6.61%:7.57%
Rpt: 6.12%: 6.17%: 6.61%:7.61%
4Ave.= 6.58%, 6Ave.=6.96%
Ph10yr 6.24%, 5yr: 6.06%
+VREIT : 1.70, .13E, 7.65% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.28, .10E, 7.81% (N/A
TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
102.60, 38.55=-3.86: 2.72% prev.2.98%
Weekly Comment: Higher US Bonds
High volume Jump in MREIT

REIT Dashboard, 5.26
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 33.50: 14.00: P5.70: 4.21:
Div.  P2.02 : .982 :  .390: .318:
Yld: 6.02%: 7.01%: 6.84%:7.55%
Rpt: 6.21%: 7.01%: 6.84%:7.55%
4Ave.= 6.84%, 6Ave.=7.20%
Ph10yr 5.92%, 5yr: 5.82%
+VREIT : 1.62, .13E, 8.02% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.29, .10E, 7.75% (N/A

TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
101.99, 38.82=-3.88: 2.98% prev.3.09%
Weekly Comment: Div. adj. hits.
Filrt has 12% drop in 12 mo. Div.s

PHL Govt Bond Yields : 10yr.etc: yrEnd'22: 6.98%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./
10.07:  34.85: 13.18: P5.07 : P5.98 = 6.81%v7.24% 100.99 3.84%: 2.97% BUY #1
11.25:   33.15: 11.36: P5.24 : P5.71 = 7.20%v6.97% 102.90 3.75%: 3.45% BUY #2
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50 : 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%: 2.60%
01.27:  35.85: 14.76: P6.06 : P5.80= 6.32%v 6.12% 106.7= 3.63%: 2.69%
03.03: 35.90: 14.00: P5.55 : P5.30= 6.56%v6.59% 101.9 : 3.89%: 2.67%
03.31: 32.65: 14.46: P5.80 : P5.23= 6.62% v6.32% 106.4: 3.69%: 2.93%
04.28: 33.70: 14.78: P5.77 : P5.25 = 6.54% v6.21% 106.5: 3.68% : 2.86%
WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT=AveD.vPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./ V-R, dd-R, 6ave.
05.05: 34.20: 14.68: P5.85 : P5.18 = 6.53% v6.00% 104.9: 3.76%: 2.78%, 1.54, 1.30, 6.89%
05.12 : 33.65: 13.90: P5.89 : P5.21 = 6.51% v 5.88% 104.3: 3.78%: 2.73%, 1.57, 1.28, 6.88%
05.19 : 34.40: 14.92: P5.83 : P5.00= 6.56% v 5.90% 101.1: 3.95%: 2.61%, 1.65, 1.30, 6.84%
05.26: 33.65: 13.90: P5.76 : P4.30= 7.06% v 6.05% 101.1 : 3.97%: 3.09%, 1.69, 1.28, 7.16%%
06.02: 33.50: 14.00: P5.70 : P4.21= 6.84% v 5.92% 102.0: 3.88%: 2.98%, 1.62, 1.29, 7.20%
====

Rising Rates= Falling TLT Trend reversed in Oct, helping PHL REITs to stage a nice Rally

4xREITS vs.TLT: Jan'22: 8/'22: 10d / 2.09.23: 5.76 /101.09= RCR @ 0.570 TLT, was 0.563 at 2.09

BUY Points - Signaled when R/T Ratio approached 0.50, 5.0%
Date— : RCR :  TLT : R/Tratio: DivYld : TYX :  Prem. :
10.07.22: 5.07: 100.99: 5.02%:  6.81%: 3.84%: 2.97% > BUY#1
11.25.22: 5.24: 102.90: 5.09%: 7.20%: 3.75%: 3.45% > BUY#2
YrEnd22 5.85: 100.68: 5.81%:  6.52%: 3.92%: 2.60%
========

Yield History, updated every Friday

DATABANK - Four REITS, highest Ave.Yield: 7.7% at Yr.Low

Stk.: Areit : Mreit: RCR : Filrt  : 
Old : P1.93 : .974: . 383 : .404 : = =========> as: end Nov'22
23 : P0.52: .2428: .0976: .071  :
’22.: P0.49: .2444: .0974: .088 :
’22 : P0.49: .2468: .0972: .088 :
’22 : P0.48: .2430: .0965: .116 :
Divs P1.98 : .977 :   .389 : .363 : Last 12mos.==> as: end Mar'23
====
Yr.L : 30.55: 11.20: P4.80:  5.50 : = ==== :   91.85,  44.25. > Yr.L thru Nov.
>dv.: 6.32%:8.70%:8.04%: 7.73% =  7.7% -4.42%= 3.28%
=====

#1: TLT/ Bond etf versus "cheap" Reits and Developer stocks ...  from 2016: 2020: 3/'21: Ytd:

12.03.21: TLT: 154.35, TYX: 1.678%, 10.24.22: 92.40, 4.363%, TLT -40.1%, TYX +160.%

#2 : TYX (10x LT Bond yields) vs. UUP (2x USD): from 2022: 9/'22: 2.01.23: 35.47, 3.547% vs. 27.25= r130.1%. / Note: LQD-as-bellwether

Yield Curve: 2yr vs. 10yr, 30yr, ... update: 10d: 30y: 3.878 -2y: 5.037 = -1.159%

===> LINK to Here: > https://tinyurl.com/PhlREITS-2

[drbubb]

RCR - Stock drops with ex,Date, and small Dividend increase

Divs in 2022-23 : ex-div. Dates
RCR’new:  5-23: .0965,  8-18: .0972, 11-17: .0974, 11-25: .0976 = 0.3887 / P5.65= 6.88%
2022
RCR’old   : 2-15: .0920,  5-23: .0965,  8-18: .0972, 11-17: .0974 = 0.3831 / P5.65= 6.78%

RCR / Robinsons Land Comm'l REIT... 2022: 3mo: Ytd: 10d/ 5.65 +0.12,

RCR - RL Commercial REIT, Inc.

C00946: RL Commercial REIT declaration of cash dividends

Ex-Date: Feb 15, 2023 Type of Securities: Common Cash Dividend Date of Approval by Board of Directors: Feb 6, 2023 Other Relevant Regulatory Agency, if applicable: - Date of Approval by Relevant Regulatory Agency: N/A Type (Regular or Special): Regular Amount of Cash Dividend Per Share: P0.0976/share Record Date: Feb 20, 2023 Payment Date: Feb 28, 2023 Source of Dividend Payment Cut-off Date: Dec 31, 2022 Distributable Income: Php1,143,809,837 (Unaudited)

[drbubb]

VV-VLL (1.69, 1.62%) vs VREIT (1.60, 1.53%) vs.TLT (104.32). 7/'22: 10d, 3.30.23

 

FF-FLI (0.74, 0.71%) vs FILRT (5.22, 5.00%) vs.TLT (104.32).F-F-T: 10d, 3.30.23

VV ... from 6.16.22: 10d / FF:

V-V = Equal, 1.60 start, > 9/30/22:

Date == :  VLL: VReit:  TLT   :   V / V :  VL/ T : VR/ T :
12.29. 21: 3.50: N/A : 146.67: =====. 2.39%: ====:
03.31.22:  2.61: N/A : 132.08: =====. 1.98%: ====:
06.15.22: 2.08: 1.75 :  110.84: 118.9%. 1.88%: 1.58%:
06.30.22: 1.98: 1.74 : 114.87:  113.8%. 1.72%: 1.51%:
07.30.22:  1.97: 1.75 : 117.43:  112.6%. 1.68%: 1.49%:
08.31.22: 2.02: 1.72 : 111.88:  117..4%. 1.81%: 1.54%:
09.30.22 1.60: 1.60: 102.45 100.0% 1.56%: 1.56%:
10.28.22:  1.73: 1.53 : $96.80: 113.1%. 1.79%: 1.58%:
11.29. 22: 1.39: 1.61 :  101.98:  86.3 %. 1.36%: 1.58%:
12.29. 22: 1.65: 1.65 : 100.68: 100.0%. 1.64%: 1.64%:
02.28 23: 1.80: 1.64 : 101.71 :  109.8%. 1.77%: 1.51%:
( 3.17  23: 1.69: 1.60 : 106.85:  105.6%. 1.56%: 1.50%)
=======
J-J .Ave.: 1.00: 1.00 : 100.00 : 112.1%  1.76%: 1.57%

[drbubb]

CLOSE-Up:  REITS down with falling TLT

Rcr-Mreit-Tlt-Filrt-Jul'22: 10d: 5.62, 14.18, 100.39... R/T=5.60% Target? 5.00%?

[drbubb]

REIT Dashboard, 2.23
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 35.80: 14.24: P5.57: 5.55 :
Div.  P1.93 : .977 : . 389 :.363 :
Yld: 5.39%:6.86%:6.98%:6.54%
Aver.= 6.44%,  Phl10yr: 6.40%

TLT,  :  TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
102.30,38.77=-3.88%: 2.56%.
Weekly Comment:
FILRT down 2%, Falling Div..
Ave.Div Yield fell -0.39%

FILRT : from 1.2022: w/FLI,tlt: Ytd: 10d / last: P 5.55 (range: 5.20 to 7.60 )

FILRT - Filinvest REIT, Corp., another dividend decline
====
Year  : Divid. : ex-date —— : payDate
2023 : 0.071 : 28-Feb-2023, 24-Mar : update, on 2/28:  FILRT fell: P 5.13, -0.37, -6.73%

2022 : 0.088 : 25-Nov-2022, 20-Dec :
2022 : 0.088 : 25-Aug-2022, 20-Sep :
2022 : 0.116. : 03-May-2022, 27-May:
   4 x : 0.363 : was 0.404
2022 : 0.112. : 24-Feb-2022, 20-Mar :
2021 : 0.112. : 29-Nov-2021,  20-Dec :
2021 : 0.112. : 10-Sep-2021,   30-Sep :

0.112 > 0.071 is a 36.6% drop

C01144: Filinvest REIT press release - 1

"Filinvest REIT Corp. (FILRT) shows resilience, takes key step to drive sustainable dividend yields and long-term growth"

Filinvest REIT Corp. (FILRT), the flagship commercial REIT of the Filinvest group, demonstrated resilience and steady growth in 2022 despite the challenges faced by commercial REITs in the Philippines. These included headwinds in the office leasing industry due to hybrid work arrangements as well as the impact of interest rate hikes. The Company's share price ended the year broadly in line with the share price movement of the composite market cap weighted Philippine commercial REIT sector. Amidst all these challenges, FILRT was able to deliver a 7.35% dividend yield for its investors (based on total dividends paid in 2022 on 2022 closing price of P5.50 per share).

FILRT was able to sustain its occupancy and rental rates per square meter and was well above the industry rates in locations where the properties are located, namely in Alabang and Cebu. In the final quarter of 2022, FILRT acquired a prime property with a gross leasable area (GLA) of 29,086 square meters in Boracay, Aklan. As a result of this acquisition, the Company was able to increase its portfolio GLA by +9.65%. The Boracay property, which is leased to the well regarded Crimson Resort and Spa Boracay, broadens FILRT's income profile mix beyond office leasing and into the hospitality sector. The property's tenant is the Crimson Resort & Spa Boracay, which is a property of an affiliate under its common ultimate parent company, Filinvest Development Corporation (FDC). The property is located at Station Zero, which is in the more exclusive section of Boracay and has its own private beach front. The Crimson Resort & Spa Boracay was recently recognized by Conde Nast Johannsen as an "excellent resort for families" and was also named by Time Magazine in their "50 Best Places to Visit" list. Maricel B. Lirio, FILRT President and CEO, said, "The acquisition of the Boracay property not only expanded FILRT's asset types, but also broadens its income profile, allowing us to diversify beyond office leasing-driven business districts and into hospitality. FILRT is focused on diversifying its portfolio to boost dividends for its shareholders while improving the revenues of its existing prime office assets."

FREIT Fund Managers, Inc. (FFMI), which discloses FILRT's quarterly performance, said that the company's growth will be driven by assets that conform to its investment criteria. The company's strategy is to expand in key central business districts in Metro Manila and towards major regional hubs or key cities in the Philippines with high and stable occupancy from income-generating grade A real estate properties, and deliver additional value by driving more efficient and sustainable cost of operations. New asset acquisitions will continue to focus on Grade A commercial properties and will expand beyond office leasing to include the addition of retail, leisure, residential and industrial properties into its portfolio. The acquisition of the Boracay property is a key step towards the direction the Company has expressed in its latest investment strategy.

FFMI noted that the Company's dividend yield of 7.35% was relatively competitive when compared to where 10-year government bond yields were trading in 2022 (10-year BVAL daily average for the year was at 6.34% and ending of the year at 6.99%). Meanwhile, at the company's regular board meeting on February 14, 2023, the Board of Directors approved the declaration of P0.071 per outstanding common share in cash dividends. This brings the total dividends declared to Php 0.363 based on the cut-off period for year 2022 and translates to an annualized yield of 6.6 percent based on the closing market price as at December 29, 2022 of P5.50 per share. The cash dividends will be payable on March 24, 2023 to stockholders on record as of March 3, 2023. With its stable performance in 2022, FILRT remains a reliable and attractive investment option for those seeking to grow their portfolio.
===

Terribly uninformative B.S.!  Shame on you, Filinvest!

NO EXPLANATION why the quarterly Div fell over 30%!

[drbubb]

JAN'23 inflation ... has been reported three times - as "higher than expected" (Jan. yr-to-yr)

The third report, using "the Fed's favorite measure" came out yesterday - it was even a little higher than expected after two prior reports.

And Yields pushed higher still.  But I note that the impact on the Long Bond was less than on the 2 year Note.

Update, 30 yr. Rate / TMUBMUSD30Y : 2.28.23, pre-mkt

CURVE DATA

Period :  Last : change : High - timing
2  year:  ===.  4.803%: +0.108: —- - this week
10 year: TNX:  3.949%: +0.070: 4.333- Nov’22
30 year: TYX:  3.938%: +0.061: 4.425- Oct’22
======

NEWS:  Biden Economy: Feds Inflation Gauge Shows Prices Rose Unexpectedly in January

– Monthly, Yearly Increase Higher than Expected

"All of the levels are well above the Fed’s target for inflation, averaging an annual level of 2%, but the trend and direction of inflation is what ultimately matters. Much of the increase in January came from a pick-up in energy prices, which rose 2%. Annually, energy prices are 9.6% higher, but food prices rose 11.1% from a year ago."

> https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/02/biden-economy-feds-inflation-gauge-shows-prices-rose-unexpectedly-in-january-monthly-yearly-increase-higher-than-expected/

[drbubb]

TLT, Updated (3.17.23): 106.85, TYX: 35.98= 3.60%, TLT Target: 120, in May'23

Original: "Possible Island reversal in TLT today." (Mar.3rd)

The Chance to buy TLT below $100.00 may be Gone?

yesterday's GAP: 99.645- 99.96

Needs to trade above the gap down (xx) All day, friday

RATES COMING DOWN HARD in Friday's pre-market...
 2yr:  4.859% - 0.045
10yr: 4.006% - 0.056  
30yr: 3.939% - 0.057
Meantime:
TLT: 100.57 +1.09 (Pre-mkt. GAP Up!)
Gold : $1.847 +$11

[drbubb]

Phl REITs RCR vs.TLT: F,V: 3/'21: Jul'22: Ytd: 10d / 2.16: 5.55/101.89= 5.45%  -> S-Ltr: 10d: BL:

REIT Dashboard, 3.03
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 35.90: 14.00: P5.55: 5.30 :
Div.  P1.93 : .977 : . 389 :.363 :
Yld: 5.38%:6.98%: 7.01%:6.85%
Aver.= 6.56%,  Phl10yr: 6.59%

TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
101.89, 38.87=-3.89%: 2.67%
Weekly Comment:
Friday Turn? US Yld -10 bp
Phl. REITs should rally next wk

[drbubb]

INSANE RISK.   As an ex-banker (Chase, Swiss Bank),  you should know that it is considered a Massive SIN ( and very risky) to have mismatched maturities on the scale the scale that SVB did. 

Very risky, and the regulators should have seen that an been "all over" SVB for the last 6-9 months.  If they were not ON WATCH, then someone screwed up big time.  But that would not surprise me, since the failed banks seem to have been more interested in D-I-E issues, than being prudent bankers.  It seems to me that some sort of extreme Karma episode is being played out.   Please keep this all in mind when listening...

SPECIAL REPORT: Silicon Valley Bank - How Worried Should We Be? | Joseph Wang, Former Fed Insider .

vv

[drbubb]

TYX /US 30yr Bond rates... at 3.64% may break below 200d MA soon

Phl Reits stocks like RCR could rally to catch up with rising TLT/ Bonds, as rates are drifting lower in the US since the banking crisis hit. 

People may be buying now that Rate Rises are announced. "Buy on News?"

Phl REITs RCR vs.TLT: F,V: 3/'21: Jul'22: Ytd: 10d/ 3.24: 5.65/106.85= 5.29%

REIT Dashboard, 3.24
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 34,00: 14.20: P5.65: 5.29:
Div.  P1.93 : .977 : . 389 :.363 :
Yld: 5.68%:6.88%: 6.88%:6.86%
Aver.= 6.58%,  Phl10yr: 6.24%

TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
106.85, 36.44=-3.64%: 2.96% prev.2.97%
Weekly Comment:
Little change this week. News out:
Fed and Phl raised short rates.

1 / FED raised rates by 0.25

2 / BREAKING: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas hikes interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25%

 

[drbubb]

A MELT-UP SCENARIO may be more likely in Gold & Gold stocks than general indices

UGL (2x Gold), AGQ (2x Silver) and Gold stock indices: update: $63.55, $30, $30, $36

A MELT-UP, if we see one, with likely be preceded by a jump in TLT, >200d MA

[drbubb]

"SURPRISE" DROP in INFLATION may be coming

I am still optimistic about Bond yields falling ; TLT / Bonds rising into May-June

Why? 

Because year-to-year comparisons on CRB/inflation will go negative starting

in April when Mar'23 vs. Apr'22 numbers come out.  You can see in the chart below that the CRB index (252d/ 1 yr. MA) peaked in mid-Feb.23 at about 26.

 

CRB.it / Commodity Research Bureau chart... ( update )

 

CRB index is mostly Energy and Agricultural commodities.  It peaked in mid-Feb.  And now year-on year comparisons will be negative.  Surely, this can have a big impact on global inflation rates, albeit with a lag.  And maybe with a longer lag in PHL.  The CRB in March, the latest month of 2023, will be about -10% below last year's level. So in annual average, the calculation will be replacing high month(s) in the 12 month's average with cheaper months in 2023 as we roll into mid-2023.  I look for "surprise" drops in reported inflation figures.  ( Haha. It may be NO surprise for those who have seen this chart.). I may be proven wrong about sliding General Inflation, if the Non-commodity component of inflation remains stubbornly higher - Nevermond, This Data  and this post will remain on my website, so you can see in hindsight how the call work outs.  Along with my previous comments, of course, to see how accurate and consistent I have been in my forecasts.

 

TYX / 30 Yr. Treasury Yield vs. CRB and XLE / Oil stock etf ( update )

 

However, the POSITIVE TREND WON'T PERSIST FOREVER.  After mid-year, the 12 month's inflation numbers may stop falling, and start rising again.  With the Fed given some leeway to CUT rates if inflation is less than forecast, I expect a "surprise" stock rally into May-June.  And then maybe a stock CRASH in the second half, because the "virtuous" comparisons may turn negative after mid-year.  There may be a nasty stock slide in Q3 or Q4.

 

BTW, History has shown a Global correlation in interest rates.   PHL 10 year rates, have tended to ride about 250-300 b.p. above the US 30 year Bond rate.  So long as the Philippines inflation rates tend to move in a similar trend with US and global inflation trends, I would expect to see the Correlation with US bond yields to continue, albeit with PHL rates at a fairly consistent premium.

[drbubb]

AREIT - etc:  Last:32.50 (Range:30.55 to 47.00), PER: 17.0 Yield: 6.40%

AREIT looks attractive at a 6.4% Yield

[drbubb]

I am bullish on MEG. And MREIT

If price relationships Hold, it should jump higher, so long as TLT/Bonds move up above resistance. TLT and MREIT both closed Friday right on the 1yr/ 252d MA.

FOCUS on MREIT, MEG: from 2022: Apr'22: Jul'22: 14.54 / 2.01 = 7.23x

CLOSER LOOK... / Mreit vs. TLT, MEG from 1/22:  8/22: 10d:

Theory of the case:  Rising TLT will push Mreit above resistance, and that will help to catapult MEG back to 2.20 and beyond

MEG vs. TLT : MEG-2.01/ TLT-108.25= 1.86%

No breakout yet, but TLT is poised for that. Next few days will be interesting

[drbubb]

BUY Opportunity?: AREIT !  Near P32. (please consult your financial advisor.)

TLT UP, Phl-Reits Lag... BUY Signal .. for Areit and other REITS if TLT/ Bonds breakout

vs.Bonds: YTD: TLT-108.53 +0.28, on 16.4M shs. ; Areit-32.10 (29.6%),

Mreit-14.54 (13.4%), RCR-5.70 (5.25%), Filrt-5.40 (4.98%) @4.06

== TLT/ Bonds and TYX/ Long Bond yields are mirror images

Black and Blue lines are mirror images.  Blue TLT= US Treasury BondsBonds are GOING UP.  Rates down

CRB Historical chart - Lower inflation ahead?, starting Reports in April

CRB vs. TYX (10x 30yr TBond Yield: 3.59%) and XLE (Oil stocks: 84.98) :

CRB: 22.15 -0.10, Yr.Range: 21.515 to 29.52... now driving Long term Rates Lower?

Week's Summary:

REIT Dashboard, 4.06
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 32.10: 14.54: P5.70: 5.40:
Div.  P1.98 : .977 :  .389 : .363:
Yld: 6.17%:6.72%: 6.82%:6.72%
Aver. = 6.61%,  Phl10yr: 6.22%

TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
108.53, 35.40=-3.54%: 3.07% prev.2.93%
Weekly Comment: BUY Areit?
Phl.REIT premium to TYX is wider
& Rising 0.39% prem to Php.10yr

[drbubb]

CPI Release: Mar. 2023 Release:  TOMO: Apr. 12th, 2023, 8:30 am

What is the CPI prediction for March 2023?

Inflation Prediction as of March 2023 ---- Headline Inflation Headed to 3.3% Come Midsummer. INFLATION Forecast: The annual CPI total reported each month is a combined string of 12 months of data, think of it as being 12 dominoes, a new one comes on, and the oldest one drops off.

 

( compare with TNote, TBonds Yields: 2yr: 4.0%, 10yr: 3.42%. 30yr: 3.63% )

 

TYX / 30 yr: rate vs. CRB, US$ etf: 4.28.23 :36.78 = 3.678% -0.078% / CRB: 21.88= 1.68x

Prev. 4.10.23: 36.26 = 3.63% / CRB: 22.32= 1.62x

 

Positive action may come in Phl.REIT stocks, if the CPI # is low,

And the fear of falling com'l yields (in REITS) is not too high

 

AREIT vs. TLT: 32.05 / 106.78 = 30.0%

[drbubb]

FILRT - Filinvest REIT, Corp. : Last : 5.25 - 0.05

C02862: Filinvest REIT press release - 1

"Filinvest REIT Corp. (FILRT) underscores portfolio diversification and leasing updates in Stockholders' Meeting"

Filinvest REIT Corp. (FLRT), the flagship commercial REIT of the Filinvest group, recently held its virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting where the company shared highlights of its 2022 performance, including updates on its office leasing business. FILRT recorded a net income of P1.31 billion in 2022 that was achieved on the back of rental and other revenues of P3.24 billion.

Average occupancy for the year was 89 percent, including the newly infused Boracay property that was added to the portfolio in December 2022. The infusion added 29,086 square meters of gross leasable area (GLA) to FILRT's portfolio and expanded its income profile beyond office leasing and into the hospitality sector with the lease of Crimson Resort and Spa Boracay. Its office leasing business finalized new leases and signed Letters of Intent totaling almost 10,300 square meters in the first quarter of 2023. This is more than double the new leases signed for the entire year in 2022. The tenants that signed are a mix of multinational BPO and traditional companies. "We are happy to note that tenants are starting to come back and pushing forward with their expansion plans. We are hopeful that this is a sign of reversal from the challenge we faced last year due to the implementation of hybrid work set-ups in PEZA Special Economic Zones like our Northgate Cyberzone property in Alabang," said FILRT president and chief executive officer Maricel Brion-Lirio. FILRT and the office leasing segment have experienced changes due to the evolving global workplace environment, as remote work has become more prevalent.

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Of the 10,300 square meters of new leases, about 56 percent are existing multinational BPO clients of FILRT that need additional space for their expansion. Existing traditional tenants likewise took up additional space for expansion, accounting for 24 percent of total. The balance of 20 percent was signed by new traditional tenants. Meanwhile, more than 13,300 square meters or 32 percent of the lease expiries for 2023 have already been renewed, with the balance due for renewal during the remainder of the year. FILRT expects its portfolio to benefit from intrinsic and organic growth as building occupancy improves. Contractual escalation terms are built into about 90 percent of the office leases, averaging 5 percent per annum rental escalation overall. The inorganic growth potential of FILRT is backed by the right of first refusal (ROFR) that sponsor Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI) has granted to FILRT. This covers all significant commercial properties owned by FLI and its wholly owned subsidiaries. FLI has about 465,000 square meters of office and mall gross GLA in key CBDs that are potential acquisitions for FILRT.

Other asset classes may also be added to FILRT coming from the commercial projects of the Filinvest group. "Our sponsor FLI is fully committed to grow FILRT's portfolio with regular asset infusions. We are guided by a clear investment strategy in order to sustain the portfolio expansion and provide a stable and competitive return to investors," added Ms. Brion-Lirio. FILRT is focused on sustainability and the utilization of eco-efficient assets. Two buildings in FILRT's portfolio are LEED Gold-certified while two other buildings passed the criteria for Level 1 certification on EDGE (Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies) developed by the International Finance Corporation. These green building certifications confirm FILRT's commitment to sustainability, particularly on energy, water and resource efficiency. As a sustainability-themed REIT that is backed by a strong sponsor and ESG principles, FILRT looks forward to growing of resilient and robust real estate investment portfolio.

[drbubb]

"TLT / Bonds etf may be setting up an important Breakout"

REIT Dashboard, 4.28
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 33.70: 14.78: P5.77: 5.25:
Div.  P1.98 : .977 :  .389 : .363:
Yld: 5.88%:6.61%: 6.74%:6.91%
Aver. = 6.54%,  Phl10yr: 6.21%

TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
106.46, 36.78=-3.68%: 2.86% prev.2.83%
Weekly Comment: watch US %
TLT may be setting up Breakout

YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50= 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%: 2.60%
01.27:  35.85: 14.76: P6.06 : P5.80= 6.32%v 6.12% 106.7= 3.63%: 2.69%
03.03: 35.90: 14.00: P5.55 : P5.30 = 6.56%v6.59% 101.9 : 3.89%: 2.67%
03.10 : 34.80: 14.04: P5.60 : P5.20 = 6.61%v6.45% 105.6 : 3.70%: 2.91%
03.17 : 34.00: 13.92: P5.60 : P5.48 = 6.57%v6.41% 106.8 : 3.60%: 2.97%
03.24: 34.00: 14.20: P5.65 : P5.29 = 6.58%v6.24% 106.9: 3.64%: 2.96%
03.31: 32.65: 14.46: P5.80 : P5.23 = 6.62% v6.32% 106.4: 3.69%: 2.93%
04.06: 32.10 : 14.54: P5.70 : P5.40 = 6.61% v6.22% 108.5: 3.54%: 3.07%
04.14: 32.05 : 14.68: P5.87 : P5.35 = 6.57% v6.30% 105.1: 3.74% : 2.83%
04.20: 32.90: 14.52: P5.84 : P5.18 = 6.61% v6.30% 104.4: 3.78% : 2.83%
04.28: 33.70: 14.78: P5.77 : P5.25 = 6.54% v6.21% 106.5: 3.68% : 2.86%
====

[drbubb]

Time to look at DDMPR - Now in a possible Buy window

DDMPR etc.: 1.28 updated...

[drbubb]

Yield.Curve : 2yr: 4.268%, 10yr: 3.692%, 30yr: 3.948%  at 5.19

OLD: 2yr: 3.9957%, 10yr: 3.463%, 30yr: 3.777%       

REIT Dashboard, 5.12
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 34.00: 14.70: P5.89: 5.21:
Div.  P1.98 : .977 :  .389 : .363:
Yld: 5.82%:6.65%: 6.60%:6.97%
4Ave.= 6.51%,  6Ave.=6.88%
Ph10yr 5.88%, 5yr: 5.82%

Yield Curve: 2yr vs. 10yr, 30yr, ... update: 10d: 30y: 3.878 -2y: 5.037 = -1.159%

[drbubb]

Three REITS: 10.25.22: FLIP: w/ddmpr: 8.22: Areit: 34.00, Mreit: 14.80, / RCR: 5.72= R-259%

Trading volume is drying up for MReit.  Other REITS too. Not sure why

"Never go short a boring market" - but shorts are not allowed in PHL.

REITS:

[drbubb]

FILrt-etc / FilinvestREIT: ALL: Last: P 4.95 -0.01.  / FIL: 0.74 +0.02 : R-6.69x

[drbubb]

Phl REITs / Philippine REIT Stocks, More 2023 updates.                   (pg.3)

RCR vs.TLT: F,V: Jul'22: YTD: 10d /  Y.Curve              -> S-Ltr: 10d: BL: M-Sh:

Yield.Curve : 2yr: 4.564%, 10yr: 3.692%, 30yr: 3.948%  at 5.19

REIT Dashboard, 5.26
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 33.65: 13.90: P5.76: 4.30:
Div.  P2.02 : .982 :  .389 : .363:
Yld: 6.00%: 7.06%: 6.75%:8.44%
Rpt: 6.18%: 7.06%: 6.77%:8.44%
4Ave.= 7.06%,  6Ave.=7.16%
Ph10yr 6.05%, 5yr: 5.84%
+VREIT  : 1.69, .117, 7.09% ( N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.28, .10E, 7.81% ( N/A

TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
101.09, 39.69=-3.97: 3.09% prev.2.61%
Weekly Comment: Phl.Rates Jump.
REITS broke down, esp. FILRTs

PHL Govt Bond Yields : 10yr.etc: yrEnd'22: 6.98%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./
10.07:  34.85: 13.18: P5.07 : P5.98 = 6.81%v7.24% 100.99 3.84%: 2.97% BUY #1
11.25:   33.15: 11.36: P5.24 : P5.71 = 7.20%v6.97% 102.90 3.75%: 3.45% BUY #2
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50 : 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%: 2.60%
01.27:  35.85: 14.76: P6.06 : P5.80= 6.32%v 6.12% 106.7= 3.63%: 2.69%
03.03: 35.90: 14.00: P5.55 : P5.30= 6.56%v6.59% 101.9 : 3.89%: 2.67%
03.31: 32.65: 14.46: P5.80 : P5.23= 6.62% v6.32% 106.4: 3.69%: 2.93%
04.06: 32.10 : 14.54: P5.70 : P5.40= 6.61% v6.22% 108.5: 3.54%: 3.07%
04.14: 32.05 : 14.68: P5.87 : P5.35= 6.57% v6.30% 105.1: 3.74% : 2.83%
04.20: 32.90: 14.52: P5.84 : P5.18 = 6.61% v6.30% 104.4: 3.78% : 2.83%
04.28: 33.70: 14.78: P5.77 : P5.25 = 6.54% v6.21% 106.5: 3.68% : 2.86%
WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT=AveD.vPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./ V-R, dd-R, 6ave.
05.05: 34.20: 14.68: P5.85 : P5.18 = 6.53% v6.00% 104.9: 3.76%: 2.78%, 1.54, 1.30, 6.89%
05.12 : 33.65: 13.90: P5.89 : P5.21 = 6.51% v 5.88% 104.3: 3.78%: 2.73%, 1.57, 1.28, 6.88%
05.19 : 34.40: 14.92: P5.83 : P5.00= 6.56% v 5.90% 101.1: 3.95%: 2.61%, 1.65, 1.30, 6.84%
05.26: 33.65: 13.90: P5.76 : P4.30= 7.06% v 6.05% 101.1 : 3.97%: 3.09%, 1.69, 1.28, 7.16%%
06.02: 33.50: 14.00: P5.70 : P4.21= 6.84% v 5.92% 102.0: 3.88%: 2.98%, 1.62, 1.29, 7.20%
====

Rising Rates= Falling TLT Trend reversed in Oct, helping PHL REITs to stage a nice Rally

4xREITS vs.TLT: Jan'22: 8/'22: 10d / 2.09.23: 5.76 /101.09= RCR @ 0.570 TLT, was 0.563 at 2.09

BUY Points - Signaled when R/T Ratio approached 0.50, 5.0%
Date— : RCR :  TLT : R/Tratio: DivYld : TYX :  Prem. :
10.07.22: 5.07: 100.99: 5.02%:  6.81%: 3.84%: 2.97% > BUY#1
11.25.22: 5.24: 102.90: 5.09%: 7.20%: 3.75%: 3.45% > BUY#2
YrEnd22 5.85: 100.68: 5.81%:  6.52%: 3.92%: 2.60%
========

[drbubb]

update:

[drbubb]

BONDS Awaiting breakout, as Inflation continues to ease:

TLT: 103.33 +1.02 Range: 91.85 to 120.69

Viber comment:

"Look closely at the Charts, friends... I see a possible Head & Shoulders on the 2yr US Treasury chart. A drop in US rates could help lower PHL rates... And that could Rates REIT share prices."

Yield Curve: 2yr: 4.754% -TYX/ 30yr (3.821%) = Neg. 0.933%

Head & Shoulders? on the 2-Yr Yield? Big drop next?

TYX / 30Yr Yield (3.82%) vs. CRB (20.64)= R 18.5% ... update

Ratio pinpoints turns: 38.21 /263.0= R:14.5%; 3.821%/20.64 = R:18.5%