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Philippine REITS & Div. Yields


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Phl REITs / Philippine REIT Stocks, 2023 updates.           (pg.4)

AREIT (32.05) / TLT (94.62) =33.9%, Mreit (11.96), RCR (4.70).. 2022: 2023: Ytd: 10d: 

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AREIT-etc.. 2022:

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===

RCR vs.TLT: F,V: Jul'22: YTD: 10d /TLTY.Curve   -> S-Ltr: 10d: BL: M-Sh:

US.Yield.Curve: 2yr: 4.86%, 10yr: 4.09%, 30yr: 4.20%  at 8.31

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REIT Dashboard, 8.31
 

REIT Dashboard, 11.30
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 29.85: 12.50:  4.65: 2.79:
Div.  P2.19: .984 :  .391:  .284
Yld:  7.33%:7.87%: 8.41%:10.2%
4Ave.= 8.45%, 6Ave=8.60%
Ph10yr 6. ??%,  5yr: 6.??% ??
+VREIT : 1.68, .158, 9.63% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.23, .101, 8.21% (N/A
RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 6,224: 1.56%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$91.56, 45.13=-4.51: 3.94% prev.3.42%

PHL Govt Bond Yields : 10yr.etc: yrEnd'22: 6.98%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50 : 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%:
WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT=AveD.vPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./ 6ave.
05.26: 33.65: 13.90: P5.76 : P4.30= 7.06% v 6.05% 101.1 : 3.97%: 3.09%, 7.16%
06.02: 33.50: 14.00: P5.70 : P4.21= 6.84% v 5.92% 102.0: 2.96%: 3.88% 7.20%
06.30: 34.70: 14.54: P5.80: P3.83= 6.89% v 6.49% 102.9: 3.86%: 3.03% 7.20%
07.28 : 33.00: 14.20: P5.32: P3.40= 7.43% v 6.53% 99.81: 4.03%: 3.40% 7.56%
08.04: 34.20: 13.90: P5.29: P3.38= 7.44% v 6.66% 96.53: 4.21%: 3.23% 7.57%
====

US.Yield.Curve : 2yr: 4.65%, 10yr: 3.76%, 30yr: 3.895%  at 7.14

J8VmrJ7.gif

4xREITS vs.TLT: Jan'22: 8/'22: 10d / 6.30.23: 5.80 /102.94

= RCR ratio: 5.63% TLT, was 5.63% at 2.09

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OTHER High Yield stocks. /TLT: 102.94

Update: Shlph: 14.50 (0.00), DELM: 8.95 (0.00), RFM: 3.10 (0.00)

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Sym.  :  Last :   B.V. :   % BV : PER : Div,: Yield :
TLT.  : 102.94  ===  :   === : === : TYX: 3.86%
SHLph 14.50: 17.93:  80.9%: 98.0: 1.00: 6.90%
DELM:   8.95: 11.43 : 78.3%: 19.0 : 0.07: 0.80% >'22: $.017=0.67; 7.49%
RFM.    P3.10:  3.98:  77.9%:  12.0: 0.25: 8.14%
====

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  • 2 weeks later...

TLT / Bonds Rising: Oct.22: 1/22: Jan.20: Ytd: 10d: 101.89 +1.06

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From Jan.22:

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from Jan.20:

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==

US.Yield.Curve : 2yr: 4.65%, 10yr: 3.76%, 30yr: 3.895%  at 7.14

J8VmrJ7.gif

TYX - since 2020:

Drwouxg.png

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OIL & CRB Prices since 2022 - the Big Slowdown since Oct.2022

TYX, etc. 3.895% at July.13th

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INFLATION ROSE Just 0.2% in JUNE, Less than Expected
Key Points
  • The consumer price index rose 0.2% in June and was up 3% from a year ago, the lowest level since March 2021.
  • Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4.8%, respectively.

FN45KMW.png

Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 4.8% from a year ago and 0.2% on a monthly basis. Consensus estimates expected respective increases of 5% and 0.3%. The annual rate was the lowest since October 2021.

> https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2percent-in-june-less-than-expected-as-consumers-get-a-break-from-price-increases.html

===

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TIME To BUY REITS?:  7.45% Yield is >10 yr. PHL Govt. (6.40%); at 2023 High

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At 7.45%, the Ave Yield for 6 REITS is at highest Yield of the year. 

1% higher than 5yr PHL Govt. Yield, and UP from 6.5% for 4Reits at year end 2022 .

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./
10.07:  34.85: 13.18: P5.07 : P5.98 = 6.81%v7.24% 100.99 3.84%: 2.97% BUY #1
11.25:   33.15: 11.36: P5.24 : P5.71 = 7.20%v6.97% 102.90 3.75%: 3.45% BUY #2
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50 : 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%: 2.60%
WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT=AveD.vPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./ 6ave.
05.26: 33.65: 13.90: P5.76 : P4.30= 7.06% v 6.05% 101.1 : 3.97%: 3.09%, 7.16%
06.02: 33.50: 14.00: P5.70 : P4.21= 6.84% v 5.92% 102.0: 2.96%: 3.88% 7.20%
06.30: 34.70: 14.54: P5.80: P3.83= 6.89% v 6.49% 102.9: 3.86%: 3.03% 7.20%
07.14 : 34.55: 14.28: P5.70 : P3.43= 7.21% v 6.40% 101.2 : 3.92%: 3.29% 7.45%
====

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MREIT, RCR, and TLT - Back to a balance point.

MREIT -etc. update: YTD: 10d

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Four Large REITS

==== : Last :  /TLT : PER :  Div.: Yield:  BkVal: Pr/BV
MReit : 14.36: 0.142: N/A.: .982: 6.84%: 19.56: 73.4%
RCR   : P5.74: .0567: N/A.: .390: 6.79%: P5.26: 109.%
M/R.  : r2.50
AReit : 34.75: 0.343: 17.8: 2.08: 5.99%: 39.81:  87.3%
Filrt.  : P3.48: 0.034: 13.9: .318: 9.14%:  P1.09: 319.%
Ave4: P10.13< 0.10 : === .728E 7.19%:  ====
TLT.  : 101.29: 1.000 : N/A :  == : 3.01%:
TYX. : 39.23 : ==== : === === 3.923%. Prem. 3.27%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50 : 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%: WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT=AveD.vPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./ 6ave.
05.26: 33.65: 13.90: P5.76 : P4.30= 7.06% v 6.05% 101.1 : 3.97%: 3.09%, 7.16%
06.02: 33.50: 14.00: P5.70 : P4.21= 6.84% v 5.92% 102.0: 2.96%: 3.88% 7.20%
06.30: 34.70: 14.54: P5.80: P3.83= 6.89% v 6.49% 102.9: 3.86%: 3.03% 7.20%
07.14 : 34.55: 14.28: P5.70: P3.43 = 7.21% v 6.40% 101.2 : 3.92%: 3.29% 7.45%
07.28: 33.00: 14.20: P5.32: P3.40 = 7.43% v 6.53% 99.81: 4.03%: 3.40% 7.56%
 8.04: 34.20: 13.90: P5.29: P3.38 = 7.44% v 6.66% 96.53: 4.21%: 3.23% 7.57%%
 8.31: 33.25: 13.52: P4.86: P3.36: = 7.62% v 6.63% 96.64: 4.20%: 3.42% 7.96%
====

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  • 1 month later...

AReit at P33 (6.24%; 2%prem), versus TYX: 4.29%, (TLT: $93).

AREIT: update: 32.90 +0.43

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TYX -etc: 42.91 vs.YrH: 44.74, XLE: 88.18 (vs.94.71), CRB: 22.38 (vs.28.99)

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RXI calculation, based on 0.730 Div./7.60%= 96.12

Four Large REITS, 8.31.23
==== : Last :  /TLT : PER :  Div.: Yield:  BkVal:  Pr/BV
MReit : 13.52: 0.142: N/A.: .982: 7.26%: 19.56:  69.1%
RCR   : P4.86:.0567: N/A.: .391: 8.04%: P5.26:  92.4%
M/R.  : r-2.78
AReit : 33.25: 0.343: 16.5: 2.06: 6.20%: 39.81:  83.5%
Filrt.  : P3.36: 0.034: 14.2: .301:  8.96%: P1.09: 308.%
Ave4: P96.12<1.003 : == .730E  7.60%: =ave.: 138%
TLT. : $95.80 : 1.000 : N/A : == : 3.22%:
TYX. : 42.04 : ==== : === === 4.204%. Prem. 3.42%
====

Recreating RXI:

RXI idx. Last :   Shs. : Pvalue : Div.: D.pmt.
MReit : 13.52:  1,800: 24,336 : .982:  1,768
RCR   : P4.86: 4,800: 23,328 : .391:   1,877
AReit : 33.25:    750:  24,938 : 2.06:  1,545
Filrt.  : P3.36:  7,000: 23,520 : .301:  2,107
====: 96.12:  1,000 : 96,122: 7.59%: 7,297

 

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LOW PER stock Builders look attractive. May follow SHNG higher

MEG discount to SHNG stays Large, at -P1.59 discount.

Low PERs suggest room for big DIV. rises in all these stocks

MEG-etc.:2.02-SHNG:3.61:-P1.59, 56.0% CPG 0.34=16.8% MEG

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ROCK-etc: 1.50,-VLL: 1.60: (P0.10), 93.8% FLI 0.65=40.6% VLL

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Stock : Last: Bk.V.: %BV: PER: E.Yld : D.Yld : Div.%: LastD: ex-Dv
MEG. : 2.01 : 6.64: 30.3% 4.06: 24.6% 3.06% 12.4% .0614 : Oct’22
SHNG: 3.61 : 8.43: 42.8% 4.00: 25.0% 8.02% 32.1%: .1344 : 09.07
CPG. : .340 : 1.85: 18.4%: 5.45: 18.3% 3.56%: 19.5%: .0061 : 09.28
ROCK: 1.50 : 4.16: 36.1%: 3.59:  27.9% 5.01%: 18.0%: .0752 : 08.17
VLL.  :  1.60 : 9.07: 17.6%: 2.62: 38.2% 1.83%: 4.79% .0292: Oct’22
FLI.   :  .650 : 3.69: 17.6%: 5.13: 19.5%  5.45% 27.0%. .0360: 05.09
ALCO: .495 : 1.90 : 26.1%: 4.56: 21.9% 2.42%: 11.1%. .0120:  07.12
==  Average of 7 : 27.0% 4.20=23.8% 4.19% 17.6% =====
ALHI:   5..98 : 8.83: 67.7%:  12.5: 8.00% 0.50% 6.25% .0300: 05.29

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DD : 3yr: 7.25 ( Range: 5.50 to 8.19 )

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C06443: DDMP REIT press release - 1.     Aug. 16th

"Today: 15,100 square meters or 1.51 Hectares of New Office Space Lease"

The new office space lease take up is expected to form part of the goal of DDMP REIT Inc to achieve 95% occupancy by the end of 2023 Today, August 17, 2023 DDMP REIT Inc receives payment of P55.26 million as rental deposits for 15,100 square meters or 1.51 hectares of new office space lease with total lease value of P798.81 million. The new office space lease take up is expected to form part of the goal of DDMP REIT Inc to achieve 95% occupancy by the end of 2023.

DoubleDragon Plaza at DD Meridian Park is positioned as a mini central business district (CBD) in the Bay area given its prime landmark double corner location of EDSA, Roxas Boulevard and Macapagal Avenue in the Bay Area, Pasay City, Metro Manila. DoubleDragon Plaza is LEED Gold certified and currently houses two government agency headquarters namely PEZA (Philippine Economic Zone Authority) and TIEZA (Tourism Infrastructure Economic Zone Authority) and expects to soon welcome an additional third government agency to relocate their headquarters in the complex, in addition to many private corporate head offices in the complex.

DoubleDragon Plaza at DD Meridian Park as a complex brings undeniable advantage to a variety of office tenants whether corporations, government agencies or BPO companies, given its very prime landmark location with various top food chain brands in the Ground Floor such as Jollibee, Mang Inasal and many others.

DD Meridian Park is like a mini-CBD in the Bay Area being the only complex in the area that has 8 commercial banks (Landbank, RCBC, PNB, BPI, AUB, Unionbank, Chinabank, and BDO) making it uniquely convenient for office tenants to complete their banking transactions all within their proximity. These dining and banking options are further complemented by a full-sized supermarket, MerryMart Grocery, located at the Ground Floor of DoubleDragon Plaza. The complex also houses thousands of parking slots, with a separate conveniently located large parking area at the basement solely dedicated for outside customers who visit DD Meridian Park either for business meetings or leisure.

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AREIT 32.60, under pressure (r: 30.55 to 39.20) :

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vs.PSEI (6,126 at 9.15.23): 32.65 +0.55= 0.53% of PSEI

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w/RCR (5.07, 15.8%), MReit (13.56, 41.6%) /AReit (32.60

/TLT, 93.75= 34.8%)

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PHL REIT stocks got Hit HARD today, ruining a good week.

Worst REIT stocks today
Stock.   Last:   + / -    Chg.  : Yr-L :  Yr-H :  Yield :
MREIT  12.20  -1.20  -8.96%: 11.20: 15.90:  8.05%
FILRT   P2.98 -0.27  -8.31% : 2.90 :  7.00 : 10.10%
RCR     P4.76 -0.24 -4.80% 4.76 :  6.20 : 8.20%

TLT :   92.96 -0.57, -0.61%, and tyx: 4.39%

That’s FTSE rebalancing… Philippines seeing outflows again… RCR even getting deleted. Hence all these names just got whacked on the close because Philippines has no liquidity…. These rebal days are great for market on close orders if you can set that

Q: Deleted?  Out of the Index?  Might they get a lift, if they rise and can get back inside the index?

Yes out of the index. Hence the passive selling

Q: Might they get a lift, if they rise and can get back inside the index?

Takes a while to be reincluded. Takes a while to be reincluded

I think names like RCR will get picked up again on Monday . It’s just incredible how every time it works .. rebalancing just move the names around huge

Chart :

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Compare : Phl Govt 10Yr : 6.50%

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===

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  • 3 weeks later...

Long Bond may be at/ near the very long term bottom

TLT /Treasuries, Long Term : 85.06. (R: 84.885 to 109.68),

VwAFBSX.gif

TYX: 49.37, 4.94%,  (R: 34.13 to 49.50)

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===

 

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RCR vs.TLT: F,V: Jul'22: YTD: 10d /TLTY.Curve   -> S-Ltr: 10d: BL: M-Sh:

US.Yield.Curve: 2yr: 5.05%, 10yr: 4.57%, 30yr: 4.71%  at 9.29

JOUtsmR.gif

REIT Dashboard, 9.29
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 32.80: 12.30:  4.90: 3.04:
Div.  P2.06: .982 :  .391:  .301:
Yld: 6.28%:7.98%: 7.98%:9.90%
Rpt: 6.35%:7.97%: 7.98%:9.90%
4Ave.= 8.04%, 6Ave=8.18%
Ph10yr 6.66%,  5yr: 6.38%
+VREIT : 1.69, .153, 9.05% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.30, .103, 7.92% (N/A
RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 6,175: 1.56%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$88.69, 47.11=-4.71: 3.33% prev.3.42%

===

REIT Dashboard, 8.31
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 33.25: 13.52:  4.86: 3.36:
Div.  P2.06: .982 :  .391:  .301:
Yld: 6.20%:7.26%: 8.04%:8.96%
Rpt: 6.38%:7.27%: 8.03%:8.96%
4Ave.= 7.62%, 6Ave=7.96%
Ph10yr 6.63%,  5yr: 6.44%
+VREIT : 1.64, .153, 9.33% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.29, .103, 7.98% (N/A
RXI 96.12/ PSEI: 6,175: 1.56%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$96.64, 42.04=-4.20: 3.42% prev.3.23%
 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Philippine-real-estate-24Sept2023-620x45

This very same success, however, has also become one of its main challenges. The high cost of entry to real estate assets—especially in relation to our GDP per capita—has now made it difficult for the average Filipino to buy real estate.

Enter: REITs

A Real Estate Investment Trust, commonly known as REIT, is a publicly-listed and traded corporation that owns and operates income-generating real estate. These include office buildings, residential complexes, malls, hotels, hospitals, and infrastructure projects.

When you buy into a REIT, you are essentially buying shares of the real estate assets in the REIT’s portfolio, which usually consists of high-quality assets in core markets. This offers investors a compelling opportunity to participate without the high engagement and capital requirements typically associated with property ownership.

> https://business.inquirer.net/422693/reit-revolution-transforming-the-philippine-real-estate-investment-scene

Date : RCR , % AR : MReit, % AR :  AReit : / TLT = %TLT
09.07: 5.07, 15.8% : 13.56, 41.6% : /32.60 /93.75= 34.8%
10.13 : 4.89, 15.0%: 12.22, 37.4% : /32.70 /87.61=  37.3%

AReit vs/RCR

3RfwEzm.gif

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UPDATE: Low PERs suggest room for big DIV. rises in all these stocks

PRICE TARGETS, based on Peak Comparisons
============
+ % Book : 25.6% > 60-66%, = +134 -158%
+ PE Ratio: 3.96x > 5.8-9.1x. = + 46 - 130% (+earnings rise)
+ Div.Yield: 4.72%> 3.6-3.2%= + 31 -  48% (+divs. rise )

MEG-etc.:2.02-SHNG:3.61:-P1.59, 56.0% CPG 0.34=16.8% MEG

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ROCK-etc: 1.50,-VLL: 1.60: (P0.10), 93.8% FLI 0.65=40.6% VLL

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Stock : Last: Bk.V.: %BV: PER: E.Yld : D.Yld : Div%: LastD: ex-Div
MEG. : 2.01 : 6.64: 30.3% 4.06: 24.6% 3.28% 13.3%: .0660: 10.26
SHNG: 3.58: 8.43: 42.5% 3.77: 26.5% 8.08% 30.5%: .1344 : 09.07
CPG. :  .315 : 1.85: 17.0%: 4.75:  21.1%  3.84%: 18.2%: .0061: 09.28
ROCK:  1.37 : 4.16: 32.9% 3.28: 30.5% 5.49%: 18.0%: .0752: 08.17
VLL.  :  1.65 : 9.07: 18.2%: 2.70: 37.0% 3.76%: 10.2%:  .0620: 10.16
FLI.   :  .610 : 3.69: 12.1%: 4.63: 20.8% 5.90%: 28.3%. .0360: 05.09
ALCO: .445 : 1.90 : 26.1%: 4.56: 21.6% 2.70%: 12.5%. .0120:  07.12
==  Average of 7 : 25.6% 3.96=25.3% 4.72%: 18.7% =====
==  Old.Ave. of 7 : 27.0%  4.20=23.8%  4.19%: 17.6%  =====

12/’19 Peak comparison
MEG. :  4.01 : 5.54: 72.4% 7.44: 13.4% 1.75%:  13.0%: .0700: 2019
SHNG: 3.20:  7.35: 43.5% 4.99: 20.0% 5.63%  28.1%: 0.180: 2019
ROCK:  2.04: 3.46: 59.0% 4.22: 23.7% 4.07%: 17.2%: 0.083: 2019
CPG. :  0.55 : 1.51 : 36.4% 4.98: 20.1% 2.16%: 10.8%: .0119 : 2019
VLL.  :  7.73 : 7.69 : 101.%  8.71: 11.5%. 3.36%: 29.2%: 0.26 : 2019
FLI.   :  1.50 : 2.97 : 50.5% 5.79: 17.3%  4.13%: 23.8%: .0619 2019
ALCO: 0.81 : 1.35 :  60.0% 4.26: 3.77% 1.23%: 0.74%: .0100 2019
==  Average of 7 :  60.4% 5.77=17.3% 3.19%  18,3% ====< 2019
==  Average of 7 : 25.6% 3.96=25.3% 4.72% 18.7% ====< 10.23

12/’18 Peak comparison
MEG. :  4.75 : 5.08: 93.5% 10.15 9.85% 1.26%: 12.8%: .0600: 2018
SHNG:  3.12:  6.88: 45.3% 4.93: 20.3% 6.41%: 31.7%: 0.200: 2018
ROCK:  2.01:  3.03: 66.3% 4.78: 20.9% 3.48%: 16.7%: 0.070: 2018
CPG. :  0.44:  1.41 : 31.2% 5.08:  19.7% 4.55%: 23.5%: .0200 2018
VLL.  :  5.41:  7.02 : 77.1%  6.76:  11.5%. 4.25%: 28.8%: 0.230 2018
FLI.   :  1.41 : 2.76 : 51.1 %  5.81: 17.2%.  4.26%: 24.7%: .0600 2018
ALCO: 0.96 : 0.99: 97.0%. 26.5: 3.77%. 1.04% : 27.6%:  .0100 2018
==  Average of 7:  65.9% 9.14=10.9%  3.61%:  23.7% ====< 2018
==  Average of 7 : 25.6% 3.96=25.3% 4.72% 18.7% ====< 10.23

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  • 2 weeks later...

END OCT.

RCR vs.TLT: F,V: Jul'22: YTD: 10d /TLTY.Curve   -> S-Ltr: 10d: BL: M-Sh:

US.Yield.Curve: 2yr: 5.08%, 10yr: 4.88%, 30yr: 5.02%  at 10.31

qLp3Jq3.gif

REIT Dashboard, 10.31
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 32.80: 12.18:  4.74: 3.00:
Div.  P2.06: .982 : .391: .301:
Old  P2.06: .982 :  .391: .301:
Yld: 6.28%:8.06%: 8.25%:10.0%
Rpt  6.46%:8.07%: 8.24%:10.0%
4Ave.= 8.15%, 6Ave=8.29%
Ph10yr. 7.11%,  5yr: 6.69%
+VREIT: 1.66, .1535, 9.25% (N/A
+Ddmpr 1.28, .101,  7.89%  (N/A
RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 5,974: 1.5?%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$83.58, 50.22=-5.02: 3.13% prev.3.33%
===

REIT Dashboard, 9.29
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 32.80: 12.30:  4.90: 3.04:
Div.  P2.06: .982 :  .391:  .301:
Yld: 6.28%:7.98%: 7.98%:9.90%
Rpt: 6.35%:7.97%: 7.98%:9.90%
4Ave.= 8.04%, 6Ave=8.18%
Ph10yr 6.66%,  5yr: 6.38%
+VREIT : 1.69, .153, 9.05% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.30, .103, 7.92% (N/A
RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 6,175: 1.56%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$88.69, 47.11=-4.71: 3.33% prev.3.42%

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US Interest Rate uptrend - BROKEN? > yes! testing next support at 4.0-4.2%

TNX / US 10 year Treasuries, Last: 4.121%;  11/10th: 4.628%

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11/10th: 4.628%

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TLT vs. 3-REITs / 92.63, 4.45%; vs. 3R: 7.88%, 4R.ave: 8.46%, 4.01% premium

Areit: 29.85, 7.37%, Mreit: 12.50, 7.87%, RCR: 4.65, 8.41%; Filrt: 2.79, 10.18%; 4R: 8.46% at 11.30

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I had expected upturn when I made this chart at 11.10.23: 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Stock Feature:

FILRT We have a BUY rating on FILRT with a DDM-based end-2024 price target of Php3.80/shr, implying potential upside of 33%. We believe rental income and occupancy rates are at an inflection point going into 2024. We expect average vacancy rates to peak this year and stabilize at the 16% level. We then expect rates to gradually improve to 15%/14% in FY24/25F on the back of the firm’s aggressive origination efforts and our view that the cheaper rents in Alabang will help stoke demand.

We believe concerns about FILRT’s lower-than-peer occupancy rates (84% as of1H23 vs peer avg of 95%) have been more than priced in following the stock’s steep 48% YTD sell-off (vs PCOMP’s 3.9% decline). At current levels, we find the stock’s FY24F dividend yield of 10.0% attractive against the current 10-year BVAL of 6.3% amid a potential backdrop of falling interest rates in the next 12 months.

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Since 10.31, TLT/Bonds up:  83.58 > 92.63, +10.8%,  TYX (30yr rate) : 5.02 > 4.45%

                      Premium:  (7.18-5.02)= 2.16%, r:143%; (6.31-4.45)= 1.86%, r:142%           

Look at the sliding PHL.10 yr. Rate. 7.18% > 6.31%

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PHL.REITS are finally moving.  

TLT vs. 3-REITs / 92.63, 4.45%; vs. 3R: 7.88%, 4R.ave: 8.46%, 4.01% premium

Areit: 29.85, 7.37%, Mreit: 12.50, 7.87%, RCR: 4.65, 8.41%; Filrt: 2.79, 10.18%; 4R: 8.46% at 11.30

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10d / TLT slid -1.16% on Thu to 91.56, after rising +% on Wed to 92.63

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TLT is moving UP. since end Oct.  But only Areit has moved up so far.  And you could argue that AReit is just recovering from a sharp selloff, after a DIV payment, and a some Asset buying news, which hurt the stock for a few days     

To me, this means that Phl. REITS are an attractive BUY right now, with 8%+ Yield

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AREIT (32.05) / TLT (94.62) =33.9%, Mreit (11.96), RCR (4.70).. 2022: 2023: Ytd: 10d: 

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AREIT-etc.. 2022:

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===

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12.13 Areit: Mreit: RCR: Filrt: Vreit ddmpr

Divs:  2.19 : .984 : .391  : .284:  .158 :   ???

Hist:  2.12 : .984 :  .391 :  .284: .1574: .1008

last:  0.55 : .246 : .0979: .071 : .0400: .0255

5ago  .49 : .244 : .0974: .088 : .0361: .0273

REIT Dashboard, 11.30
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 29.85: 12.50:  4.65: 2.79:
Div.  P2.19: .984 :  .391:  .284
Yld:  7.33%:7.87%: 8.41%:10.2%
4Ave.= 8.45%, 6Ave=8.60%
Ph10yr 6. ??%,  5yr: 6.??% ??
+VREIT : 1.68, .158, 9.63% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.23, .101, 8.21% (N/A
RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 6,224: 1.56%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$91.56, 45.13=-4.51: 3.94% prev.3.42%

REIT Dashboard, 10.31
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 32.80: 12.18:  4.74: 3.00:
Div.  P2.12: .984 :  .391:  .301:
Yld: 6.46%:8.07%:8.25%:10.0%
4Ave.= 8.19%, 6Ave=8.36%
Ph10yr 6. ??%,  5yr: 6.??% ??
+VREIT : 1.66, .157, 9.46% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.28, .101, 7.89% (N/A
RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 5,974: 1.56%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$83.58, 50.22=-4.20: 3.42% prev.4.06%

REIT Dashboard,  9.30
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
Last 32.80: 12.30:  4.90: 3.04:
Div.  P2.12:  .984 :  .391: .301:
Yld: 6.46%:8.00%: 7.98%:9.90%
4Ave.= 8.09%, 6Ave=8.22%
Ph10yr 6.??%, 5yr: 6.??%  ??
+VREIT : 1.69, .157, 9.29% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.30, .10E, 7.69% (N/A
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT : Prem.
$88.69, 47.11=-4.03: 4.06% prev. 3.46%

PHL Govt Bond Yields : 10yr.etc: yrEnd'22: 6.98%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50 : 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%: 2.60%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT=AveD.vPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./ 6ave.
05.26: 33.65: 13.90: P5.76 : P4.30= 7.06% v 6.05% 101.1 : 3.97%: 3.09%, 7.16%
06.02: 33.50: 14.00: P5.70 : P4.21= 6.84% v 5.92% 102.0: 2.96%: 3.88% 7.20%
06.30: 34.70: 14.54: P5.80: P3.83= 6.89% v 6.49% 102.9: 3.86%: 3.03% 7.20%
07.28 : 33.00: 14.20: P5.32: P3.40= 7.43% v 6.53% 99.81: 4.03%: 3.40% 7.56%
08.31: 34.20: 13.90: P5.29: P3.38= 7.66% v 6.00% 96.64: 4.20%: 3.46% 7.99%
09.30: 32.80: 12.30: P4.90: P3.04=8.09% v 6.00% 88.69: 4.71%:  3.38% 8.22%
10.31 : 32.80: 12.18 : P4.74: P3.00= 8.19% v 6.00% 83.58: 5.02%:  3.17% 8.36%
11.30 : 29.85: 12.50: P4.65: P2.79= 8.45% v 6.00% 91.56:  4.51%: 3.94% 8.60%
12.30:   ????

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