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Philippine REITS & Div. Yields


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Phl REITs / Philippine REIT Stocks, 2023 updates.           (pg.5)

Date= :  MReit,  pct.  :   RCR,   pct.  :    TLT   :   AReit, pct.:  MEG,  pct.:
1.03.22: 19.32, 13.4%:  7.80: 5.41% / 144.30: 49.10, 34.0% 3.16,2.19%
1.03.23: 14.24, 14.0%:  5.94: 5.85%/ 101.46: 35.20, 34.7% 2.05,2.02%
1.03.24: 12.44, 12.7%:  4.99: 5.08%/ $98.31: 33.70, 34.3% 1.98,2.01%

Fav. REITS: RCR: 5.48/T-93.78=5.84%, AR-32.00, MR-13.94, DD-1.22, FR-3.11
4fPTzps.gif
Fav. REITS: from Oct.'21dofpB4n.gif

RCR  (5.48) to RLC (16.20) =33.8% /TLT ($93.78): 17.3%: w/Mreit (13.94) @1.26.24
12.18: (4.66) to RLC (15.60) =29.9% /TLT ($99.15): 15.7%: w/Mreit (12.00)Nz51YQj.gif

AReit (32.00) to ALI (34.00) =94.1% /TLT ($93.78): 34.1%: w/Filrt (P3.11) @1.26.24
12.18: (33.60) to ALI (33.95) =99.0% /TLT ($99.15): 34.2%: w/Filrt (P2.63)

13MKCmq.gif

MReit (13.94) to MEG (1.98) =7.04x /TLT ($93.78): 2.11%: w/AGI (11.32) @1.26.24 
12.18 : (12.00) to MEG (1.95) =6.15x /TLT ($99.15): 1.97%: w/AGI (10.10)

8nXtDDR.gif

VReit (P1.73) to VLL (1.75) =98.9% /TLT ($93.78): 1.84%: w/ddmpr (1.22) @1.26.24
12.18: (P1.70) to VLL (1.64) =104.% /TLT ($99.15): 1.97%: w/ddmpr (1.22)

9IwCCZ2.gif

REIT Dashboard, 12.29
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 33.40: 12.30: 4.89: 2.58:
Div.  P2.20: .984 :  .391: .284
Yld:  6.59%:8.00%:8.00%:11.0%
4Ave.= 8.40%, 6Ave=8.57%
Ph10yr: 6.00%, 5yr: 5.96%
+VREIT : 1.67, .158, 9.46% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.21,  .101, 8.35% (N/A
R/tIt 4.95%/ PSEI: 6,450: 7.58%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$98.88, 40.19=-4.02: 4.38% prev.3.94%

PHL Govt Bond Yields: 10yr.etc: yrEnd'22: 6.98%, '23:6.00%

WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT= AveDvPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./
YE'22 35.40: 14.48: P5.85 : P5.50 : 6.52%v6.98% 100.7: 3.92%:
WkEnd Areit: Mreit:  RCR  : FILRT=AveD.vPh.10yr  TLT = US,Lt.: prem./ 6ave.
06.30: 34.70: 14.54: P5.80: P3.83= 6.89% v 6.49% 102.9: 3.86%: 3.03% 7.20%
09.30: 32.80: 12.30: P4.90: P3.04=8.09% v 6.00% 88.69: 4.71: 3.38% 8.22%
10.31 : 32.80: 12.18 : P4.74: P3.00= 8.19% v 6.00% 83.58:  5.02%: 3.17% 8.36%
11.30 : 29.85: 12.50: P4.65: P2.79= 8.45% v 6.00% 91.56:  4.51%: 3.94% 8.60%
YE'23 33.40: 12.30: P4.89: P2.58= 8.40% v 6.00% 98.88: 4.02%4.38% 8.57%

US.Yield.Curve : 2yr: 4.65%, 10yr: 3.76%, 30yr: 3.895%  at 7.14

WVFPDcy.gif

4xREITS vs.TLT: Jan'22: 8/'22: 10d / 6.30.23: 5.80 /102.94

= RCR ratio: 5.63% TLT, was 5.63% at 2.09

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  • 2 weeks later...

MEG (1.97, 2.00%) LAGGING?...

AR- (33.55, 34.1%), MR- (12.44, 12.6%), RC- (4.90, 4.98%) / TLT: $98.39NVtpcMF.gif

Anecdotal: "I was walking along Alaya Avenue this past week, noticing how many Offices have signs with missing tenants.  Was thinking of taking TOP 10 Photos of that"

RISING TLT Bond prices are helping REITs and MEG stock, but not as much as I expected.  Are REITs showing a lag thanks to "Missing Tenants"?

Date= :  MReit,  pct.  :   RCR,   pct.  :    TLT   :   AReit,  pct.MEG,  pct. :
1.03.22: 19.32, 13.4%:  7.80: 5.41% / 144.30: 49.10, 34.0% 3.16,2.19%
1.03.23: 14.24, 14.0%:  5.94: 5.85%/ 101.46: 35.20, 34.7% 2.05,2.02%
1.03.24: 12.44, 12.7%:  4.99: 5.08%/ $98.31: 33.70,  34.3% 1.98,2.01%
=====

2023:

9N1Rp50.gif

2022:

RaIsFQP.gif

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REIT Dashboard, 12.29- YE'23
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 33.40: 12.30: 4.89: 2.58:
Div.  P2.20: .984 :  .391:  .284
Yld:  6.59%:8.00%:8.00%:11.0%
4Ave.= 8.40%, 6Ave=8.57%
Ph10yr: 6.00%, 5yr: 5.96%
+VREIT :  1.67, .158, 9.46% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.21,  .101, 8.35% (N/A
R/tIt 4.95%/ PSEI: 6,450: 7.58%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$98.88, 40.19=-4.02: 4.38% prev.3.94%

======

REIT Dashboard, 11.30
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 29.85: 12.50:  4.65: 2.79:
Div.  P2.19: .984 :  .391:  .284
Yld:  7.33%:7.87%: 8.41%:10.2%
4Ave.= 8.45%, 6Ave=8.60%
Ph10yr: 6.21%,  5yr: 6.17%
+VREIT : 1.68, .158, 9.63% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.23, .101, 8.21% (N/A
R/tIt 5.08%/ PSEI: 6,224: 7.47%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$91.56, 45.13=-4.51: 3.94% prev.3.42%

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NICE JOB on DDMPR by Moneywise Engineer here!

REITs Investing 2024 : MREIT, RCR, and DDMPR REVIEW and ANALYSIS / Should You Buy These REITs?   / Video from "the Moneywise Engineer"

For DDMPR, the big positive is a low P/BV ratio, just 41%.
But the Dividend is NOT Fully covered by cash flow.  Payout ratio was an unhealthy 156%!
Having said that, they had big gains on investment realizations.  PER, is just 1.80x
GROWTH is Cash Flow likely in 2024, as phase4 of its development is completed.

                   Moneywise Metrics. Dec. 13th
Reit -    :  Last : Q.DIV:  P/BV : Yield: P’out: BUY@: Size, as of :  O.R., BPO%
DDMPR:  P1.19: .0255:  0.41 : 7.87%: 156%: P1.28: 4.76 Hectares
MREIT  :  12.10 : .2460:  0.61 : 7.97%: 80.%: 12.20: 324.7K, 03’23, 95%, 77. %
RCR      :  P4.70: .0979:  0.89 : 8.10%: 85.%: P4.88: 480.5K, 12’22, 98%, 77.1%
===

Actually, I did swap into some DDMPR this week, selling some AREIT at P33.95, 6.48% Yield, to add some DDMPR at P1.21, 8.35% yield.  Not huge amounts, but I like to take some profits along the way, and invest in stocks with higher yields. to boost my fund's returns just a bit

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OVERALL summary on All 8 REITs,

AReit, CReit, DDmpR, FILRt, MReit, PReit?, RCR, VReit

               Largest to Smallest… as of 1.8.2024
Sym.  : MCap :  Last : shOS:  Bk.V.: %-BV : PER :  Div. : Yield : MC#
AReit : 78.2B: 33.00:  2.37B  39.81: 82.9%  16.73: 2.20: 6.67% #35
RCR    : 53.8B: P5.02: 10.73B P5.26: 95.4%  N/A :  .391 : 7.79% #46
MReit : 35.5B: 12.68 : 2.796B 19.56: 64.8%  N/A :  .984: 7.76% #57
DDmpr 21.9B: P1.23 : 17.83B  P2.87: 42.9% 1.81 :  .099: 8.05% #69
             189.4B                          ====   71.5%           ====  7.57%
CReit  : 16.9B: P2.59 : 6.55 B   P0.67: 387.% 12.4:  .189:  7.30% #84
FilRt    : 14.2B: P2.91 :  4.89 B  P1.09:  267.% 14.6:  .284: 9.76% #91
VReit  : 12.8B: P 1.71 : 7.500B  P3.49: 49.0% 4.67:  .158: 9.24% #96
PReit  :   5.1 B: P1.56 : 3.289B  P2.67: 58.4%  N/A : .134: 8.59% #133
                49.0B                           ====   190.%          ==== 8.72%
====    238.B                           ====   131.%          ====  8.15%

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PSEI (6,643) vs. TLT ($96.52) and RCR (P5.15)

Vs. All Time Highs: P: -26.7% v 9,059, T: -43.5% v $171, R: -41.8% v P8.85

1kTB9I6.gif

REIT stocks (on average) have broken their long downtrend, and I am now in profit on 4 of my 6 REIT Holdings.   

Total PHL Model Portfolio hit a new All Time High yesterday, beating the PSEI by an average of 11.5% per annum over the last 4-5 years.

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REIT Dashboard, 01.17.24
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR: Filrt:
Last 34.05: 13.46: 5.25: 3.11:
Div.  P2.20: .984 :  .391: .284
Yld:  6.46%:7.31%:7.45%:9.13%
4Ave.= 7.59%, 6Ave=8.57%
Ph10yr: 6.23%, 5yr: 5.99%
+VREIT : 1.73, .158, 9.13% (N/A
+Ddmpr: 1.26, .101, 8.01% (N/A
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$94.82, 43.03=-4.30: 3.29% prev.4.38%

4 New FAVS: AR-, DDmpr, MR-, RCR vs. TLT (blue)

qRoSLs4.gif

REIT Dashboard, 01.17.24
4new Areit: Mreit: RCR:ddmpr:
Last 34.05: 13.46: 5.25: 1.26:
Div.  P2.20: .984 :  .391: .101
Yld:  6.46%:7.31%:7.45%:8.01%
4Ave.= 7.31%, 6Ave=8.57%
Ph10yr: 6.23%, 5yr: 5.99%
TLT,  :    TYX = US,LT: Prem.
$94.82, 43.03=-4.30: 3.01% 

With Phl.10yr Yields at 6.23%, you can get a 1.35% premium investing in the Old Four REITS ("4stks"), and a 3.29% premium to the US- TYX yield.  NOT as good as before, but decent.   Right now, I might choose DDMPR over FILRT, and maybe slightly underinvest in AReit, await a pullback below resistance near P34.  The average Yield on the New list of 4 ("4new") is lower, because FILRT was swapped for DDMPR.

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  • 2 weeks later...

AREIT is having a down day, so far: P 31.75 - 5.2%

fJWVasD.gif

Most recent news I could find, was a week ago.  they announced the acquisition of a lease on a Seda LIO hotel in El Nido Palawan.  AREIT amended acquisition of assets 

 Seda Lio is a 153-room resort-hotel which caters primarily to leisure tourists, families, social and corporate events, and other visitors. With the acquisition, AREIT will earn a guaranteed building lease from the hotel operator, Econorth Resort Ventures over the next 25 years beginning January 2024. Details of the Assets Type (land, building, etc.): Building Location: El Nido, Palawan Size: 17,680 square meters Rights Acquired (Ownership/ Leasehold etc.): - Contract Price: P1.192 billion.  67.4k per sqm

Was hardly scratched by the 5% drop in AREIT, because I had sold off more than 80% of my AREIT shares very recently.  The area near P34 was an obvious resistance level, and the yield on AREIT at that level is only (P2.2 / 34= 6.47%), lowest among the Reits.  I may buyback in the region of P30-31.  I am not afraid to shift a portion of my funds around the sector when I see relative value opportunities.  If I sit earning the 7-8% dividends. I will never get the 12% outperformance I am seeking for my Model portfolio.  The more time I have to watch the market, the more opportunities like this I may find.  I do not always have time for such low stakes trading

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Investors Shifted out of other REITs when they could grab a 7% Yield in AREIT shares - or so it seemed on Friday

REIT   : Close:  chg.: Prev. : LOD.: %at.L:  Div.: Y.on.L*
AREIT : 32.00 -1.50: 33.50: 31.55: -5.8%: 2.20: 6.97%
MREIT: 13.94 -0.20:  14.14: 13.70: -3.1%:  .984: 7.18%
RCR   : P5.48 -0.03: P5.51: P5.37: -2.5%: .391:  7.28%
Ddmpr P1.22  -0.02: P1.24: P1.22: -1.6%:  .101:  8.28%
FilRt   : P3.11  -0.04: P3.15: P3.10: -1.6%:  .284:  9.16%
TLT    : 93.78 -0.18: 93.96: 93.49: -0.2% TYX> 4.40%
=====

*Note: AREIT placement was done at P31.1= 7.07% yield

DOWN in sympathy?  On Friday, AREIT slid as ALI dropped over P 5B at P31.10 - see news article.  Looks like some other REITS dropped (a bit less) in sympathy.  Presumably they sold the other REITs to snap up "bargain-priced" AREIT shares.  This was probably a buying window.  We will see this week

Fav. REITS: RCR: 5.48/T-93.78=5.84%, AR-32.00, MR-13.94, DD-1.22, FR-3.11dofpB4n.gif

Despite the fact that RCR has risen to the High End (5.48/93.78) 5.84% of TLT, the REIT rally seems likely to continue imho, because Friday's drop was driven by a P5B+ Capital move by AREIT's main shareholder (for an excellent reason), and ALI's large selling was rather easily absorbed within the sector.

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Fav. REITS: RCR: 5.48/T-93.78=5.84%, AR-32.00, MR-13.94, DD-1.22, FR-3.11
4fPTzps.gif
Fav. REITS: from Oct.'21

uKot0y7.gif

RCR  (5.48) to RLC (16.20) =33.8% /TLT ($93.78): 17.3%: w/Mreit (13.94) @1.26.24
12.18: (4.66) to RLC (15.60) =29.9% /TLT ($99.15): 15.7%: w/Mreit (12.00)Nz51YQj.gif

AReit (32.00) to ALI (34.00) =94.1% /TLT ($93.78): 34.1%: w/Filrt (P3.11) @1.26.24
12.18: (33.60) to ALI (33.95) =99.0% /TLT ($99.15): 34.2%: w/Filrt (P2.63)

13MKCmq.gif

MReit (13.94) to MEG (1.98) =7.04x /TLT ($93.78): 2.11%: w/AGI (11.32) @1.26.24 
12.18 : (12.00) to MEG (1.95) =6.15x /TLT ($99.15): 1.97%: w/AGI (10.10)

8nXtDDR.gif

VReit (P1.73) to VLL (1.75) =98.9% /TLT ($93.78): 1.84%: w/ddmpr (1.22) @1.26.24
12.18: (P1.70) to VLL (1.64) =104.% /TLT ($99.15): 1.97%: w/ddmpr (1.22)

9IwCCZ2.gif

FILRT (P3.11) to FLI  (0.68) = 4.57x /TLT ($93.78): .725%: w/FDC (5.59) @1.26.24
12.18: (P2.63) to FLI (0.55) = 4.78x /TLT ($99.15): .555%:  w/FDC (5.29)

HcC8XmS.gif

DDmpr (P1.22) to DD (7.90) = 15.4% /TLT ($93.78): 8.42%: w/MM (1.04) @1.26.24
12.18 :   (P1.22) to DD (7.46) = 16.4% /TLT ($99.15): 7.52%:  w/MM (1.02)

LbG272a.gif

Weirdly, DDMPR correlates with price moves in MM

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  • 5 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

FILRT Down against TLT, because Tenants were lost during Covid (and since then)

BPI thinks: "FILRT’s lower-than-peer occupancy rates (84% as of 1H23 vs peer avg of 95%) have been more than priced in"

FvF: 0.70 / 3.05= 22.95% /TLT-94.42= 0.74%, 3.32%

8pqqjkm.gif

Stock Feature: FILRT  (BPI Report)

We have a BUY rating on FILRT with a DDM-based end-2024 price target of Php3.80/shr, implying potential upside of c.+22%. We believe rental income and occupancy rates were at an inflection point going into 2024. We believe average vacancy rates peaked in 2023 and expect it to stabilize at the 16% level. We also see vacancy rates for FILRT falling to 15%/14% in FY24/25F on the back of the firm’s aggressive origination efforts and our view that the cheaper rents in Alabang will help stoke demand. We believe concerns about FILRT’s lowerthan-peer occupancy rates (84% as of 1H23 vs peer avg of 95%) have been more than priced in following the stock’s steep 45% YoY sell-off (vs. PCOMP’s 8.2% decline). At current levels, we find the stock’s FY24F dividend yield of 9.2% attractive against the current 10-year BVAL of 6.25% amid a potential backdrop of falling interest rates in the next 12 months.

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TNX : 10-yr Rates (x10); recently, 4.35%, now 4.218%, USO 78.7 >76.68, -2.6%

image.png

As discussed yesterday at the Meetup...  

TNX - 42.18 / 10 yr rates (x10) versus two inflation drivers;  USO- Oil etf,  DBA- Agricultural commodity etf.  Looks like 10 yr rates have already made a Right Shoulder at 4.35%, and are headed back down again.   If this continues, REITs should follow, with a lag, the rally in LT Bonds (TLT: 93.98 )

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