drbubb Posted June 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2013 DOLLAR Rally? Then what ? The dollar’s rally reversed as predicted in the last update. After forming a choppy top area, it went into a steep decline which stopped abruptly right at important support near to its 200-day moving average on Thursday. Given the magnitude of the dollar’s decline it is surprising that gold did not fare better, and this does not bode well for gold short-term, as the dollar now looks set to bounce back, although longer-term the outlook for it is bleak. While we can all chortle with mirth at Japan’s laughable attempt to imitate the Fed by printing money recklessly – laughable because they do not have the comfy cushion of being in possession of a global reserve currency - and how they drove straight at a brick wall leading to the distinctive sound of rapidly crumpling metal. What happened in Japan to the Yen and then to the stockmarket should serve as a dire warning to the Fed of what could happen if it continues to abuse the dollar relentlessly as it has been doing. The dollar chart now looks very scary, and although it does look set to bounce back short-term from oversold, which could clobber gold and silver one last time, what looks likely to happen is that it will rally up to form the Right Shoulder of the potential Head-and-Shoulders top shown on our 6-month chart for the dollar index below. Use this as your guide for when to reverse positions – dump the dollar when it tops out at the prospective Right Shoulder high, we’ll offload our “insurance” PM sector Puts for a nice profit and we’ll go aggressively long the PM sector across the board – ETFs, better producing gold and silver miners with low or no debt, and Calls. Note here that the dollar rally up to mark out the Right Shoulder of our prospective H&S top may not get as far as shown on our chart - we could see a stunted Right Shoulder. COTs for the dollar are still extremely bearish, with Small Specs being insanely bullish, which is a huge negative. === /Clive Maund: http://www.kitco.com...ket-Update.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traineeinvestor Posted June 15, 2013 Report Share Posted June 15, 2013 If you haven't already read it, James Rickards' "Currency Wars" is a good read on this subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2013 Walking Back Bernanke Wished on Too Much Information: Currencies Hedge funds and other speculators dumped more than $14 billion of bullish dollar bets before the Federal Reserve signaled it would pare stimulus, leaving them on the wrong side of a central bank trying to improve transparency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2013 This could be a good level to switch OUT of the USD and into the Euro (But be sure to use a stop) EURO - I am not giving up on it FXE / etf for the Euro ... update It has fallen to/near a key support level, but has not broken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 6, 2013 Report Share Posted July 6, 2013 Kyle Bass (Altegris Conference, May 2013) "The Next 18 Months Will Redefine Economic Orthodoxy For The West" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJfvLADP3HE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2013 ... for the record here, after a big day - as reported on DrB's Diary ... No Punch through - A big drop instead : - 1.82% : That's a massive change for the USD Falling away from a key chart point If the Dollar can punch thru some resistance at 84.75 or so, it may shoot up to the next major resistance near 86 ... update Reports : US dollar falls, bonds rise on Fed minutes, Bernanke comments Reuters - 6 minutes ago By Herbert Lash. NEW YORK | Wed Jul 10, 2013 6:37pm EDT. - The U.S. dollar fell and Treasury debt prices rose on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting in June showed policymakers wanted lower ... Bernanke: Economy still needs Fed stimulus USA TODAY - 3 minutes ago Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday the central bank will likely keep at least some of its easy-money policies going "for the foreseeable future. == == Are you Surprised ? Apparently, some FX traders were. Interestingly, the remarks DID NOT HELP BONDS... or even Gold much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 5, 2013 Report Share Posted August 5, 2013 Surely it must be time for the Euro to collapse? EUR/GBP (Double top) Especially since I'm off to off to the south of France soon, damn pound has been very weak of late against the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted August 8, 2013 Report Share Posted August 8, 2013 USDJPY is in the late stages of what could be a very short stage 3 topping pattern. A drop below 94.6 in the next couple of weeks will see us entering stage 4 decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2013 Decision Time for the Dollar ? DXY / USD Dollar trade weighted index ... update UUP / 2x Bull etf for the USD ... update A break and drop could come this week Seasonal pattern: If it follows the normal seasonal pattern, it will rally a bit from here, and then breakdown in the second half of September. In a "nornal" year the Dollar's big drops come in the last four months of the year - I presume it is because of the extra weight of importing goods for the December holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 I am planning to sell a big part of my Euro tomorrow FXE / etf for The Euro ... update - Looks toppy here... maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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