drbubb Posted December 25, 2012 Report Share Posted December 25, 2012 CURRENCY WARS thread / Headline: A major Yen decline underway How low can the yen go? Is FXY-100 the next big Target ? ============================================= USD- priced in Yen => : Yen - priced in US Cents: 5-years : 2-years : 6-mos : 10d // A bounce may be due soon ? -- Latest FXY FXY : 115.67 / Change: -0.76 = 84.75 (25 Dec. 2012) Japan Stocks Rise as Yen Touches 20-Month Low; Rubber, Gold Gain Bloomberg - 7 Hours ago Japanese stocks advanced, sending a benchmark index toward the highest close in more than eight months, as the yen’s drop to a 20-month low boosted earnings prospects for exports. Rubber and gold prices CURRENCY ETFs: ========= DXY / US$ : All-data : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXA / A$ -- : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXB / GBP : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXE / Euro : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXF / SWF : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXY / Yen- : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest ( Other FX ) DBV / AllFx : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest usdEGP / Egy. Pound : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest usdNOK / Nor. Kroner : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest usdMYR / My. Ringgit : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest === ===== GEI Newsgroup :: http://www.congoo.com/GlobalEdgeNews EGP /Egypt---- :: http://www.greenener...showtopic=17182 : EGP-latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yen on defensive on U.S. fiscal worry, helps Nikkei Reuters - 6 Hours ago Uncertainty over whether U.S. lawmakers will strike a deal by an end-of-year deadline to avert a severe fiscal retrenchment undermined the yen and bolstered Japanese shares, but trading volume was low Yen on defensive on US fiscal worry, helps Nikkei Livemint.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2012 BOJ Outpaces Fed in Easing as Yen Heads to 90: Chart of the Day La Repubblica - 3 Hours ago Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan will outpace the U.S. Federal Reserve in printing money next year, putting the yen on track to weaken to about 90 per dollar, according to Bank of America Merrill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 If the Yen does not bounce very quickly... Watch out ! (A New Year often brings the reversal or an acceleration of a currency move.) FXY / Yen etf ... update It could get very UGLY* for the Japanese currency in 2013. The currency could go into freefall - and that may greatly increase rather than reduce the problems for this most-heavily indebted country *"Very Ugly" would mean a drop below the next Target of 100 === === Etf versus Yen Spot calculations: Yen : 86.00 (yen per US$1) FXY : 113.93 1/ FXY : 87.73 (86.00 would have required: 116.27, so FXY is "undervalued" by about $2.30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted December 29, 2012 Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 400-500 yen to the dollar? Fujimaki considers it, http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-15/ex-soros-adviser-fujimaki-says-japan-to-probably-default-by-2017.html “There’s no way out of Japan’s crisis,” Fujimaki said. “The only option left for Japan is either default or print money into hyper-inflation.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbear Posted December 29, 2012 Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 Moneyweek is getting all excited about Japanese stocks rising in this inflationary scenario. But if the yen is falling won't it be a case of swings and roundabouts - unless you currency hedge of course? (incidentally hi again after many months of not posing - and a happy new year to all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 It's good to see that old familiar logo again, Newbear. I hope you are well, and prospering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbear Posted December 29, 2012 Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 Thanks Bubb and the same hopes and good wishes to you. I posted on the housing thread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2013 Weak close to the year for the Yen... FXY: 113.03 -0.90 Open: 113.61 / High: 113.66 / Low: 112.98 Volume: 257,000 Percent Change: -0.79% Inverse: 113.03 + 2.30 = 115.33, then 10,000 x 1/115.33 = USD : Yen 86.71 "Watch Japan. Things may unravel there first, and a sliding currency may eventually trigger a global jump in rates" If Kyle Bass (the hedgie that runs Hayman Capital) is to be believed, Japan will pop in about 2-3 years. See https://www.youtube....h?v=HtEw2FdVe_0 (8mins) and more in depth, if you have the hour to spare. https://www.youtube....h?v=JUc8-GUC1hY Let's assume his scenario happens and Japan pops by 2015. Markets get spooked, Japan (partially) defaults, Yen turns into Argentinian peso. Does this trigger a new debt crisis affecting UK rates through contagion or will the markets shrug it off and carry on as usual? If the latter, then perhaps we're looking at another decade or even longer of kicking the can down the road. If the former, then we've got a double if condition that needs to be met. Say Japan Pops and Contagion each have a 75% chance of happening, then there's only 50% chance it goes POP over here. I don't know what the odds are, but it's a lot of ifs. It might happen sooner than 2015. And maybe you should watch Egypt too - they seem to be headed into a very serious phase of their crisis. They are running out of money, and have a huge population to feed, and their main industry is tourism A parabolic move may have started (in the USD priced in Egypytian Pounds) ... EGP-update EGP per USD: 6.3698 +0.0132 / +0.21% (the big jump of 1.8% was during the prior trading day) As the world sees how these currency problems unravel into hyperinflation, it may be harded are harder for Central banks to maintain confidence in the conjuring tricks that have worked over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 The Yen was better than Gold for a long time, but not in recent years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 Dollar slides versus high-yielding currencies; yen slumps Reuters - 4 Hours ago The dollar slid against high-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar, while the yen sold off on Wednesday after U.S. lawmakers forged a last-minute deal to avert huge tax rises and spending FXY-in-FXA The Yen in A$ looks even weaker. In addition to the gains in being short, there's been a nice "yield pick-up". But the bouncebacks when they come are FAST, and then next may be from 1.04 (see chart) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted January 3, 2013 Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 Took profits on my recent yen short trade. Still like the lok of the graph on a longer time scale. Will look to re-enter when inidicators become less overbought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 THE YEN may surprise to the Upside, says EWMS The Yen is about to surprise (nearly) everyone in a big way. For the past 1-2 months the Yen has been building a momentum basing pattern, which once complete will result in a very, very sharp reversal rally. Don't believe it?... To find out more, please log-in to view the Daily Currency Forecast for January 2, 2013 Paul Thomason Elliott Wave Market Service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 DOLLAR UP / Gold Down ! DXY vs GLD ... update DXY - US Dollar / Trade-weighted ... 10year-chart Gold Set for Worst Run Since '04, Fed Signals No Buys . . . The Dollar Index (DXY) rallied to the highest in six weeks today, and was set for the biggest weekly gain since July, weighing on commodities including oil. “A big part of gold’s bull market has been loose monetary policy and an end to that will hurt the rally,” said Wang Xiaoli, chief investment strategist at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China’s biggest listed brokerage. “It’s still too soon to call the end because these lower prices may finally attract the physical buyers who have largely been absent.” Twenty analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect gold to advance next week on concern that U.S. lawmakers are doing too little to control the deficit in the world’s largest economy, while five were bearish and two were neutral. Gold for February delivery slipped 1.5 percent to $1,649.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Annual Climb Cash bullion advanced 7.1 percent in 2012, capping a 12th annual gain as the Fed announced a third round of so-called quantitative easing, the Bank of Japan expanded asset purchases and China approved additional infrastructure spending. Gold’s relative appeal is likely to diminish as so-called fear trades fade, according to Tom Kendall, head of precious-metals research at Credit Suisse Group AG and the most accurate precious-metals forecaster in the past eight quarters tracked by Bloomberg. Cash gold slid 1.4 percent yesterday as the Fed’s minutes were released. At the December meeting, the FOMC announced Treasury purchases of $45 billion a month in addition to $40 billion a month of mortgage-debt purchases begun in September. === /more: http://www.businessw...nd-of-purchases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2013 CURRENCY thread / Headline: Is a major Yen reversal underway ? OTHER CURRENCY ETFs: ========= FXA / A$ -- : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXB / GBP : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXE / Euro : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest FXF / SWF : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest ( Other FX ) usdEGP / Egy. Pound : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest usdNOK / Nor. Kroner : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest usdMYR / My. Ringgit- : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest I have changed the title of the thread - and added some currencies. With the new focus, I think it merits PINNING. => For FX stories, Click here : http://www.congoo.com/GlobalEdgeNews/ EXAMPLE: Euro crisis as it happened Shock fall in UK services activity raises recession fears Rally continues as European markets close higher European markets have continued their January jump despite a mixed economic picture, with poor UK service sector data but positive jobs news from the US. The FTSE 100, having broken the 6000 barrier earlier in the week after the US fiscal cliff deal, rose another 42.50 points to end at 6089.84, its best level since February 2011. Joshua Raymond, chief market strategist at City Index, said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 Moving money in FX, and moving yourself - here's one story... God help us all - the man who STRed in 2009 is now buying. If that's not a sign of a top then I don't know what is. Seriously, hope it works out, but to leverage up to the eyeballs on overpriced London property at these rates... that could end up costing you a lot more than you imagined if things go south. A better idea, than exposing yourself to a market that may "head south," might be to head south yourself, and buy something at half price in Chichester. I reckon you can rent it at a higher yield, and then use the money to rent in London, until you can escape, and move south yourself. Why expose your capital to so much downside ? Good luck anyway, B. Kidding aside, I hope it works out for you. In my own saga in HK, I got an offer on my property here yesterday, and turned it down. I am hoping for an improvement today, since I think the buyer is rather keen. But I have doubts if we can bridge the gap (about 2.4%). If I were to sell at the mid-price, I would have captured a gain of about 55% since 2007. The other HK properties that we sold a few years ago have appreciated more than that, and my GF never stops reminded me that "I convinced her to sell." ( My memory is that we agreed on that decision, but what do I know: I'm just a man.) Meantime, back in Good 'ole Blighty (since 2007): http://www.dailymail...-peak-2021.html Quote Property prices could take another eight years to recover from the recession and regain their 2007 value, according to forecasts by an estate agent. Homeowners in Wales, North Yorkshire and the North West will wait the longest to see the value of their property return to pre-recession value according to Knight Frank. In Wales, prices won't return to their average peak of £154,696 until 2021 with the current market value more than £20,000 down to less than £132,000. In both Yorkshire and the North West, prices will not hit 2007 heights again until 2020, in what is likely to be the slowest housing market recovery in economic history. London will see the quickest recovery, with prices expected to return to their 2007 £303,739 average as early as next year. The capital is still regarded as something of a property hotspot in the global market with properties in prime locations rising by more than half since 2009 and up nine per cent during 2012. Overall, there is something of a north-south divide, with prices in the South East to hit peak levels by 2016 and East Anglia by 2017. Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: 'Some five years after the start of the financial crisis the housing sector in Britain still does not bear the hallmarks of a fully functioning market. Unquote/ So if you had sold out in the UK, and bought in HK in 2007 - you could now return to the UK with 50%+ more money to spend, as well as some sort of currency gain - another 20%+. Funny how that all works. You can "create" wealth by moving yourself around, and by moving money around. I wish all of my investments had been so successful. But at least I got a big one right. I am now thinking of investing in the US (if I sell), lets see how that might work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 8, 2013 Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 Sentiment on the Yen by www.sentimentrader.com; It's going to bounce back at some point, at least a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 The Yen is about to surprise (nearly) everyone in a big way. For the past 1-2 months the Yen has been building a momentum basing pattern, which once complete will result in a very, very sharp reversal rally. Don't believe it?... Paul Thomason, Elliott Wave Market Service FXY / CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ... 1yr-chart : 3yrs 3-years FXY: 112.65 +0.90 / +0.81% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 JM thinks the Yen will drop... over the next decade John Mauldin on KWN : Three very interesting points in this interview KWN-MP3 : http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/12/30_John_Mauldin_files/John%20Mauldin%2012%3A30%3A2012.mp3 (1) Japan has too much debt, and it cannot allow its interest rates to rise, so it will have to keep rates low by flooding the markets with its currency. The Yen rise from Y300 to the USD to Y75. Over the next decade it may retrace a big part of that. The weaker yen could help push up Japanese stocks (2) France is in far worse shape than most people recognise, and it is doing "all the wrong things." This will eventually hurt the Frenh banks, and they have a key role in financing world trade. The world will have to learn to finance trade with much less involvement by the French banks. . . . (US$) If the US "can get its deficit under control" then the US$ could do well. But that will require: more taxes than the Rep's want, and more cuts than the Dem's want. If the US fails to get the deficit fixed, then JM will buy more gold each month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 (For Jake & others, as posted on the Mauldin thread): You should think about buying : Yen-priced Futures on the Nikkei, or a Call option with a Yen strike price. They should do well, if JM is right about big Yen weakness. As you may know, I think that Egypt is headed into a Hyperinflationary spiral. There are disruptions in the Egyptian economy - but Egypt's stock market is doing well: The recent EGP currency weakness ... update ...has helped to re-ignite the stock rally - Up about 57% in a year, despite all the troubles ! Maybe we will see the same thing in Japan: Stocks outperform as the currency slides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2013 Another Big Drop in the Yen yesterday- to New Lows ... the small rally attempt faded fast: FXY : 109.92 -1.16 / -1.04% Open:109.96 / High:110.33 / Low:109.66 ... Volume: 649,212 FXY/ Yen etf ... FXY-chart-W : FXY-D The weekly chart shows the Yen may be at the bottom of a channel and/or an Uptrend line. The Daily chart shows this move left A GAP DOWN - so there is a reasonable chance that a better rally could start next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2013 "The Pound is by a long way the most overweight currency in the SDR" FXB / Pound Sterling etf ... FXB-6mos-D : FXB-10yr-W Great find, Vicarious ! Especially this part: Our careful analysis shows that the SDR composition allows the UK and US to be lazy, and everyone else to turn a blind eye. Few British or American workers have any intention of doing anything cheaper than a Thai factory worker, so their negative balances have in the meantime been parked with the Thais - within SDRs - as a store of wealth. The Thais are assuming that this makes a good solid base for Thailand's own 'Foreign Currency Reserve'. For as long as everyone else is buying Pounds as part of a package labelled SDRs (or indeed in their own right) this allows the British to run a big trade deficit for a very, very long time. Lots of the outstanding calls on the British to get off their collective ass are frozen into those SDRs and held by the rest of the world as a trusted store of value. The Pound is by a long way the most overweight currency in the SDR, being 11% of its value but less than 3% of the world economy. It's an enormous current privilege for us British.The world's financial garden mulch could be legitimately advertised "Now with extra British Pounds!" Somehow the British got to this situation of being a key component of the SDR. But as a component - and from the point of view of the user of SDRs - you'd have to say the Pound is now spectacularly unfit for the purpose. I am going to post a copy of this on the FX thread, with a Link back to your post (#381) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartered Surveyor Posted January 12, 2013 Report Share Posted January 12, 2013 My question on this thread would be directed at FX traders. Is there a case in the cycle to dump £ for another currency. Gold down approx 10% from 2011 high, whilst London £ house prices up 10% since then. Is there a play to be had here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sell Pounds, Buy Gold might be a good move here IMHO... (Or lower, if you expect to see a Double Bottom on the Green line) Or Buy GLD calls, and FXB puts if you want limited risk - (Or take that action when you think the time is right.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartered Surveyor Posted January 12, 2013 Report Share Posted January 12, 2013 Possibly Bubb. I see further moves down in gold sterling house/gold ratios I can see a rest in London prices 2013 as they have overshot yet credit is easing significantly which means leverage and house prices marching up over the next few years. Gold I consider 5-10% a year growth yet London real estate will outperform. The gold/house price ratio will the swing down again n favour of gold after 3 -5 years. The top for me was 2011 for gold/houses pricec ratio in London anyway and outside far greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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