drbubb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2013 Won Weakens on Yen Drop, Foreigners Selling Shares; Bonds Steady La Repubblica - 7 Hours ago Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The won dropped after the yen’s decline sparked concern South Korea will act to weaken its currency to protect exports. Government bonds were unchanged. The yen fell to its lowest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2013 Is Abe's plan working? (1) Japan’s Industrial Output Rises as Yen Boosts Export Outlook Bloomberg - 10 Hours ago Japan’s industrial production rose for a second month, highlighting an improved economic outlook as the government nominated Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda to be its new central bank (2) Weak yen attracts Chinese online shoppers People.com.cn - 9 Hours ago An increasing number of Chinese Internet users are turning their attention toward Japanese shopping websites as a weakening yen has made goods cheaper for overseas buyers. The Japanese currency at one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted February 28, 2013 Report Share Posted February 28, 2013 Is Abe's plan working? http://www.ukti.gov....ent/455960.html Summary Japan’s trade deficit increased to 1.63 trillion yen (£11 billion) in January – a new monthly record. The recent fall in the Yen is beginning to be reflected in government statistics. Detail: Japan’s trade balance in January 2013 recorded its largest monthly deficit since 1979 when comparable trade statistics began. By value, exports increased on a nominal basis (by 6.4%) for the first time in 8 months. Exports to Asia (including China) improved. However, in real terms (by volume) exports continued to fall – by 6%, the eighth monthly decline. And the increase in exports by value was more than outweighed by an increase in the value of imports (particularly fuel). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2013 The Last man standing... Mines&Money Hong Kong Conference Highlights + Richard Karn: on how fiat currencies implode Okay, here's a quick summary: Karn reads a huge amount: 10,000 pages a week. and he hires experienced professionals who each read another 5,000 pages a week, each. They are looking for non-obvious trends, and aim to spot market changes and trends before others. One thing he has seen in all his reading of documents and history is how currencies implode. Currencies implode from the outer ring in towards the core. Karn says that The Dollar and Gold will be the last two currencies standing. Why? Because the Dollar has been the reserve currency for the world, and will be the strongest (of the weak and doomed) fiat currency until the end. One reason for this, is because so many people have borrowed in US dollars, and they will need to buy dollars to service their debts. Another reason is that many countries rely on the Dollar (to help support their own currencies), and will want to prop up the dollar along with their own, until they cannot. Most everyone at the conference found Karn's argument very convincing. I spoke with him afterwards, and someone was complimenting him on "his theory", and he said, "It is not my theory, it is just history." So the last two currencies standing will be the Dollar and Gold. And after that, Gold (and Silver) will stand on their own. So is Richard Karn's view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2013 Asian Currencies Drop a Fifth Week as Cyprus Deters Risk-Taking La Repubblica - 10 Hours ago March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies headed for a fifth weekly decline, the longest losing streak since June, as a failed rescue plan for Cyprus deepened concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2013 usdNOK / Nor. Kroner : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest === ===== Norwegian Kroner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2013 CURRENCY WARS thread / ( Other FX ) usdEGP / Egy. Pound : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest usdNOK / Nor. Kroner : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest usdMYR / My. Ringgit : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest === ===== Ringgit Nears 5-Week High as Fed Bond-Buying Seen Driving Flows BusinessWeek - 113 Minutes ago Malaysia’s ringgit advanced toward a five-week high on speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain its stimulus policy that has boosted inflows into emerging-market assets. Government bonds were littl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 30, 2013 Report Share Posted March 30, 2013 Euro sentiment; www.sentimentrader.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2013 Thanks to PD for the chart... Here, I have added some trendlines - The USD looks toppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2013 I reckon this bounce in Sterling will be followed by new lows. I Look for Sterling to make a fresh low within 3-6 months, as RSI makes a higher low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2013 A$ looks toppy, even as the US$ looks toppy... FXA / A$ -- : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 2, 2013 Report Share Posted April 2, 2013 . . . and to complement the AUD chart: AUD/JPY Meanwhile, looks like the bounce in the JPY has more legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2013 The Yen Bounce may well be a "Dead Cat bounce" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2013 THE FUNNY THING IS... The USD is holding up well / DXY-chart / while... There's plenty of NEGATIVE talk towards the US Dollar (Example): 5 of 10 Top Economies in the World Drop the Dollar Posted By: Susoni / 2-Apr-2013 The U.S Dollar is quickly losing its status as the world reserve currency. Five of the top ten economies in the world, plus a few others, no longer use the dollar as an intermediary currency for trade. This trend poses a huge risk to the dollar and the United States along with it. ZeroHedge points out today that Australia, the world’s 12th-ranked economy, has now joined a growing list of nations that have agreed to bypass the dollar in bilateral trade with China. China, ranked 2nd behind the U.S., also has similar agreements with Japan (3rd), Brazil (6th), India (9th), and Russia (10th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 2, 2013 Report Share Posted April 2, 2013 THE FUNNY THING IS... The USD is holding up well / DXY-chart / while... There's plenty of NEGATIVE talk towards the US Dollar I agree, the USD chart looks constructive ... however, at least in the very short term, sentiment appears a little stretched: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted April 2, 2013 Report Share Posted April 2, 2013 I agree, the USD chart looks constructive ... however, at least in the very short term, sentiment appears a little stretched: Is the green arrow where you went long? (and if so) What was the rationale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 3, 2013 Report Share Posted April 3, 2013 Is the green arrow where you went long? (and if so) What was the rationale? Could have, would have, and probably should have . . . alas. Anyway, I've been playing around with Fibonacci fans for some time and continue to be amazed with their (for lack of a better term) "technical validity". Although the $USD chart drawn above is slightly "porous", the green arrow represents the test and rejection of the 62% fanline, suggesting the downtrend from 2009-2011 had been negated. An entry and stop around green arrow would have been a nice trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 3, 2013 Report Share Posted April 3, 2013 . . . a criticism of fanlines however might be that they are behind the curve. E.g., if we take another look at the Yen, in terms of fanlines, we are now approaching a critical retest of the 62% fanline. However, this is after completing an almost textbook head & shoulders pattern. Still, from a longer term perspective, the fanlines should still be helpful in confirming the new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 4, 2013 Report Share Posted April 4, 2013 brief update on the Yen: we got our "kiss" yesterday, and (pre-US market open) looks like we might get our "wave goodbye" today [Edit] ... although, there's probably cause for caution, as big moves on headlines often prove reactionary: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted April 5, 2013 Report Share Posted April 5, 2013 So now the battle for inflation begins in earnest. Whither Japan? Gold up 201 yen/ gram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2013 Nice call, Happy... and we have this forecast in the Original Post Headline: A major Yen decline underway How low can the yen go? Is FXY-100 the next big Target ? ============================================= 100.11 is As near "as dammit" to my FXY-100 target Whoops ! FXY-Chart A fast big drop in recent days from 105 - culminating in this: FXY : 100.17 -1.63 Open: 101.39 / High: 101.53 / Low: 100.11 Volume: 1,616,282 Percent Change: -1.60% It now looks like we will get an overshoot Gold-in-Yen is likely to challenge the Old Highs soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 Australia, China strike deal on currency Click2Houston.com - 3 Hours ago HONG KONG (CNNMoney) - Trade between Australia and China just got a little easier.The Australian dollar is set to become only the third currency to trade directly with the Chinese yuan -- a move that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 9, 2013 Report Share Posted April 9, 2013 Australia, China strike deal on currency Click2Houston.com - 3 Hours ago HONG KONG (CNNMoney) - Trade between Australia and China just got a little easier.The Australian dollar is set to become only the third currency to trade directly with the Chinese yuan -- a move that A not insignificant news item in the scheme of things! Move over Yen-carry trade? Not withstanding a decent correction in the near term, this should bode well for the Aussie going forward. ... speaking of Yen: and another look at the longer term fractal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 9, 2013 Report Share Posted April 9, 2013 And updating the AUD/JPY cross: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 9, 2013 Report Share Posted April 9, 2013 And a brief update on the Aussie (in USD terms): approaching key resistance level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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