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WOW!  "Do the Math!" (on the influx of Chinese workers into Manila & PH)

Landlords big winners as Philippines bets on Chinese gaming boom

Over 100,000 Work permits for Chinese (& others come w/o permits)

There are only about 120,000 condo units in Greater Manila.  Do the math !

"Any Filipino landlords are laying out welcome mats for the surging number of Chinese coming to Manila to work in online gaming companies taking sports and casino bets, undeterred by simmering anti-China sentiment and a common perception that Chinese are taking Filipino jobs.

“I was afraid at first because I heard so many bad things abut Chinese tenants but I was convinced later on when my friends told me they were doing the same”, said Tessie.

“It’s benefiting people like me who need to earn”, said the 63-year-old housewife.

Her home is close to a two-tower office building where five of the nine floors are used by Chinese gaming firms. A Chinese restaurant and Chinese tea shop downstairs do brisk trade. "

. . . MORE : scroll down >

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Check out this Meetup with Manila Real Estate Investors http://meetu.ps/e/GTWpN/1Gk3J/d

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ROLLING OVER?  A Big Drop Ahead !

PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... fr, 2011 : 10d / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87. Late Aug. It rose into 8/30.

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Philippines PSEI / Possible Right Shoulder now in place at 8400, w/ recent rallyback to 8000

 PSEI ... update : with Prop.Dev'l : 10d / Last: 7,980 + 87, + 1.10%

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Major property developers ROSE to a NEW PEAK at the time of the recent possible Right Shoulder

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019

wGnqUMz.gif

If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks

The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway.

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  • 6 months later...

At current price levels, in this challenging environment...
I have become Bearish... and Three Key PH Property stocks have confirmed that view

PH Property Stocks

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Will we see LOWER PH Property PRICES?? 

The supply of Properties for Sale is going to surge because:

1. Properties still being delivered, and new ones started.  Few projects will be stopped. 

2. People who are afraid will stop buying,

3. Banks will not finance large final payments, when the what is left to pay is BELOW the realistic marlet value of the property, This will force those who cannot make the last payment to sell

4. Flippers will aim to flip to exit their property speculations, if they can,

5. Chinese buyers, who cannot get back to PH will try to unload what they have bought/  

WHERE ARE THE BUYERS who will absorb all this supply?

Even if they are there, what price will they be willing to pay now??

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Philippines PROPERTY CYCLE:

On another chat I posted this: I said:

"I think I know where we are (in the 18 YEAR LONG PROPERTY CYCLE), and here you go, a chart that is labeled with the TURN points. 

Do remember that a bellwether share like ALI might turn 6-12 months ahead of the physical market.  And ALI peaked in mid-2019. 

The physical market peak should have been right around the beginning of 2020: ...

Update ALI & CHI data

zig29Pz.gif

Assuming a peak in the Beginning of 2020,

The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year.

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  • 3 months later...

Where NEXT?  Will there be a Wave C Rally for Property Shares?

Core 4 ... update: 10d / ALI: 29.30, DMC: 4.27, MEG: 2.96, SMPH: 30.45 ... updated 10/16/20

xlt3mJJ.gif

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PROPERTY PRICE DROPS - how big?  how long?

Leechiu is spinning....  SIMPLY UNBELIEVABLE:  (see below):  1% Drop?  In primary market
(Reality that i am seeing in the secondary marlet is 20-30% or more below pre-covid prices)

CONDOMINIUM PRICES SOFTEN
3Q2020 Price Per Sqm of Current Supply
• Average price of primary units in major CBDs are increasing by 1% to 4% from major price decrease in 2Q2020
    Capital values in BGC softens by another 1% bringing to an average price decrease of 6% since 1Q2020
    Developers are extending their lower reservation fees, lower down payment and flexible payment scheme   
                                         

(They need to start cutting prices, or risk losing nearly ALL their sales... 

Since the gap down to the secondary market just gets bigger & bigger)

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PHIPROP - Philippine Property Average. Tuesday 11.23 Close: 3,566.62

PHL Property Stock Index, Monthly chart since 2008 - does the BREAK we saw in Q1 2020  still matter? 

I think it shows us that the Long Cycle of about 18-20 years has rolled over now, and we are set for 2-4 more YEARS of weak property prices in Manila, especially in Condo prices.  The evidence:  Residential vacancies have shot up, and rents are sliding.  Meantime, many new condos are under construction and are headed towards completion.  I can see buildings with maybe 10,000 units in Makati that will be completed by or before 2024.

SMPH -etc. vs.. 2yr: 6mo: from 2018: 2019: YTD: 10d/ SMPH:38.50, ALI:39.00, MEG:3.90 vs.PSEI:7,109, UKX:6,334

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YTD: 10d/ vs.PSEI: 7,109, SMPH: 38.50, ALI: 39.00, MEG: 3.90

OXM4PsU.gif

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Philippines PROPERTY CYCLE:

On another chat I posted this in JULY 2020: I said:

"I think I know where we are (in the 18 YEAR LONG PROPERTY CYCLE), and here you go, a chart that is labeled with the TURN points. 

Do remember that a bellwether share like ALI might turn 6-12 months ahead of the physical market.  And ALI peaked in mid-2019. 

The physical market peak should have been right around the beginning of 2020: ...

Update ALI & CHI data

zig29Pz.gif

Assuming a peak in the Beginning of 2020,

The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year.

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( As discussed at yesterday's Property Meet-up):

Update ALI & CHI data

ehpaqK6.gif

The end 2019 Peak was forecast before it happened! 

The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year.

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  • 3 months later...

METRO MANILA, Average Condo Prices

Metro Manila is ₱ 190,341 per sqm :

HIGH: 199,734 psm Sales Price in Sep.2021
LOW:    80,564 psm Sales Price in Aug.2016

The median list price for condos in Metro Manila is ₱ 8,548,396. The median list price has gone up by 14.6% over the last year. The median list price per square meter for condos in Metro Manila is ₱ 190,341 per sqm.
The median rent price for condos in Metro Manila is ₱ 44,963 (ASK) / 44.9 sqm = 100.1 psm.  The gross rental yield on condos in Metro Manila is 6.3%.

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Per DotProperty, Aver listing Price per sq for MANILA CONDOS

- has moved mostly SIDEWAYS, with a slight dip, over the last 12 months or so.  And having backed off Resistance at P200k psm it may be on or near support at..." The median list price per square meter for condos in Metro Manila is ₱ 190,341 per sqm."
Those who maintain that "Manila Property Prices Never FALL," may have some mild explaining to do. haha.  Actually, I have seen several bargains for CASH buyers.

> https://www.dotproperty.com.ph/properties-for-sale

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  • 2 months later...

SPUR Paper

Special Precincts for Urban Redevelopment (SPURs) of Makati City

Study of Makati City’s Urban Renewal Program
The latest Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) of Makati City offers an urban renewal strategy called “Special Precincts for Urban Redevelopment” or SPUR which offers opportunities for small lot owners to maximize the potential of their properties and therefore, share in the benefits of the development of the whole city.

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An urban renewal program starts with identifying the areas that have to be revitalized (i.e. Makati City’s SPUR sites) and the formulation of policies and guidelines to facilitate their redevelopment. Urban renewal proposals are conceptualized for specific circumstances (e.g. juxtaposition to business opportunities, community dynamics, and visual character) and yet there could be more than one urban design solution to revitalize a neighborhood. The process of urban renewal takes several steps including selection of degraded or underutilized areas (SPUR sites), formulation of zoning guidelines and policies, conceptualization of an urban design proposal, and actual implementation.

> https://upca.upd.edu.ph/uploads/1/8/5/4/18549486/513_the_special_precincts_for_urban_redevelopment_of_makati_city.pdf

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The MANILA BAY Bubble is bursting (still)

Should have been obvious that an M-Bay BUST was inevitable, in these 2020 figures

(obvious to everyone. haha.  Not just here)

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PRICE MATTERS, and so does LOCATION.

And the moment, I plan to stick to Makati, especially near Subways and transports, rather than obscure locations in Manila.  Obviously Manila Bay has been a disaster, as I have predicted since 2017-18.

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  • 8 months later...

Megaworld ventures into data science, AI Lab

Iris Gonzales - The Philippine Star 
 

MANILA, Philippines — Megaworld Corp. is developing a data science laboratory, which would be the first in the Philippines to be spearheaded by a property company.

The Township Analytics and Technology Lab (TAT Lab) will utilize data science and artificial intelligence to help Megaworld build future-ready townships across the country.

Headquartered within Megaworld’s 50-hectare McKinley Hill township in Taguig City, TAT Lab is focused on increasing the level of safety and security in Megaworld townships by developing, deploying, and improving machine learning models and utilizing artificial intelligence as a technology enabler.

“Megaworld’s commitment to building next-generation townships that are safer, more secure, enjoyable, and sustainable is evident with the establishment of our very own data science lab,” said Francis Viernes, chief data scientist and lab director at TAT Lab.

Viernes, head of Megaworld’s data analytics, said their residents, locators, visitors and partners stand to benefit from the various innovative programs to be spearheaded by TAT Lab.

These programs are all aimed at creating better experiences in and around the townships.

One such program is the advanced accident detection system, designed to detect road accidents seconds before it happens to trigger a faster, more efficient incident response.

> https://www.philstar.com/business/2023/07/17/2281501/megaworld-ventures-data-science-ai-lab

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  • 7 months later...

MOST POSH NEIGHBORHOODS in Philippines

I could have guessed many of the Top 10.  But it is nice to have it laid out like this... With a RANK ORDER too.

top 10 neighhoods in philippines

 

Not surprising to find FORBES PARK as #1.  And that Ayala seems to have been the developer for most of these Sub-division / Neighborhoods.

Might be too late for most to buy in these areas.  What will be the up-and-coming areas?

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