Jazz Residences: Buy, Sell & Rent @ "Everyman's Jazz Agency"

[drbubb]

Everyman's Jazz DATA - Buying, Selling & Renting Estimates at Jazz Residences
=========================

PRICING, VALUATION, and DISCUSSION

 

Note: The "Everyman's Jazz Agency" is an informal network of owners, tenants, investors, and friendly agents

/ who share info on prices & opportunities at the Jazz Residences.

/ We will plan to have occasional meetings.

Please join and post your ideas, info or interest here, or Message me to find out more.

 

Update (8/2017): No recent meetings, but updated the Pricing Model in post#15.

 

: Jazz Meet-up: Mastermind Property Group

 

Location

 

I have friends who have properties and/or are considering buying/renting at Jazz Residences in Makati, and they have asked me to look into how I would estimate current property prices at Jazz in light of the changing market. I am starting this thread to look historical valuations and will also monitor how these valuation estimates change over time. We will also talk about the pluses and minuses of living at Jazz and the attractions of Buying or Renting there

 

Condo Price Index for Makati (above) compares Capital Values with rent rises / see: DATA

Starting with the Valuation question, I want to look at How JAZZ valuations compare with the Colliers index for Makati

 

Jazz Residences has 4 Towers, 37 residential floors / top is 47th, with 29 - 47 units per floor. About 5,300 units in total.

Flat Sizes : (Studio): 20 - xx sm / (1 BR): 28-32 sm, (2 BR): 32 sm

Rent below assumes 1BR without Balcony (25 SM)

 

The following Table assumes that Jazz values will be below the average (per sm) that Colliers estimates for Makati, because of the somewhat "fringe-y" location of Jazz, and because Jazz is a high-density project from SMDC. The "Sell-Pr", below is the estimate average Selling Price, if one bought at that time from SMDC, the Developer. Higher floor units may be more expensive, and lower-floor units, and or those with an impaired or cemetery view may be lower.

 

SECONDHAND PRICE MODEL for Jazz Residences

Qtr.-Yr : Makati : xPct : Sell-Pr: Disc: "quick"// MakRentxPct: psm: Rent-SF- Disc = Bare (25 SM)

4Q /11 : 109,202 : 82 % : P 90.k :
4Q /12 : 118,000 : 83 % : P 98.k : 88.% : P 86 k // 720 :
4Q /13 : 134,908 : 83 % : P112k : 88.% : P 99 k // 805 :
4Q /14 : 144,500 : 84 % : P121k : 88.% : P106k // 838 :
4Q /15 : 151,300 : 84 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 883 x 90. % :
1Q /16 : 152,000 : 84 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 868 x 90. % : 781 : 19,500 - 4.0k = 15,500
2Q /16 : 147,500 : 87 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 858 x 90. % : 772 : 19,300 - 4.0k = 15,300
Aug.16 : 147.5kE : 87 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 855Ex 90. % :
(updated 8/22/16)

================
(CODE for column abbreviations: see bottom of this post)

======
Data points used to produce the figures shown above:
+ XX
+ 2Q /15: Seller seeking P 3,050M: Twr-B, 1-BR (/27sm? = P113k psm) , 35th Fl, Amenities (SSC-#3803)
+ 2Q /16: SM agents have told me recently that the cheapest flat still available at Jazz is near P4.0 million, or P135k psm, for a flat on the 29th floor which does not face the cemetery. I have adjusted it downwards to P13X k psm, based on my assumption that the middle floor is the 23rd, and I have made an adjustment of -xx%, or 0.3% per floor.

(need to replace the above - with new info)

+ Aug.16 : the cheapest flat still available at Jazz is P4.1 million, or P128k psm, for a flat of 32 SM

 

CODE:
Makati : the mean price for 3BR flats in Makati, as reported in Collier's quarterly report, The Knowledge, see DATA

xPct. : the estimated Percentage of Index prices represented by average prices at Jazz; Post-completion: expected initial asking price

Sell-Pr: the estimated official List price for Jazz flats. as offered by the developer, SMDC

Disc : the percentage of the "official" selling price that a cash buyer might pay; or for Resale units

"quick" : the expected price where the buyer pays cash, or does not require seller financing, and closes reasonably fast

//

MakRent the median rent for 3BR flats, expressed as Peso per sq meter, as reported by Colliers

xPct : the percentage of the Colliers mean rental that a tenant at Jazz might pay in Sq m - Jazz flats are smaller

Rent-SF approx. Monthly Rental price for a semi-furnished flat, where the landlord pays Association fees

- Disc : discount, if the flat is rented unfurnished, or bare

Bare (25 SM)

LINKS:

=======
To here-- : http://tinyurl.com/JazzAgency
SSC-Jazz : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1343265

Online --- : OLX : https://www.olx.ph/all-results/q-jazz-residences-makati/

Rentpad- : http://rentpad.com.ph/q/jazz-residences

=========

 

Want to list YOUR property here? It is Free for our members.

Here's how to Join Makati Prime : ( go to post#2 : HERE / think: "admiral byrd")

[drbubb]

CALCULATING VALUATION Estimates*, using the Pricing Model information just above

 

 

4 Towers: Violin, Cello, Piano, and Clarinet
Twr A : 0,783 units (1Q 2013, originally scheduled > 4Q 2013 revised turnover)
Twr B : 1,749 units / 37 = 47 ( 3Q 2015 )
Twr C : 1,077 units / 37 = 29 ( 2Q 2014 )
Twr D : 1,758 units / 37 = 47 ( 4Q 2014 )
Total- : 5,367 units ... About Jazz

Jazz Residences - is on the corners of Metropolitan Avenue and Nicanor Garcia Street in Bel-Air, Makati City,
=================

EXAMPLES:
+ 1 BR with Balcony
+ 1 BR w/o Balcony
+ Studio, of XX SM
=================

*These Estimates are mere educated guesses based on our basic valuation model.
A more precise valuation would take into consideration more variables, such as:
Which Tower is the flat within, the actual view, the condition of the flat, and the items, including build-ins which may be included in the sales contract.
Beyond that, some buyers seeking a quick sale may sell at a lower prices, and/or sellers may pay more if they seek a particular flat, or have special terms in the contract.

[drbubb]

COMPARISONS with some prices in the market

 

OLX : > https://www.olx.ph/all-results/q-jazz-residences-makati/

 

OLX: has some cheaper Rent-To-Own units, Move-in and come after 5% downpayment has been made

======
3,187k* / 26.81 = 118.9k psm : New-RTO : 5% dp, 15%/22 mos: P 23,142/mo.; then 80%
3,045k* / 26.35 = 115.6k psm : New-RTO : 5% dp ...
2,677k* / 20.00 = 133.9k psm : New-RFO : 5% dp, 15%/22 mos: P 18,250/mo.; then 80%
======
*Below Vat price after discount, saving another 12%

 

There's a big sudden JUMP in prices to P 4 million and above when the VAT threshold is surpassed.

Then, above the VAT threshold it is almost impossible to find anything offered at below P 120k psm

 

More / size : Per Sq meter : Comment
3,305k / 26.8 = 123.3k psm : New, Last unit No Vat, P140k to move in., then P22,538/m.
3,500k / 27.0 = 129.6k psm : New, Rent to Own only 5% spot to move in.

At least 8-10 more units were also listed for sale at higher prices, ranging from P 4.0 million to 4.16 million. Some examples follow:
4,000k / 24.3 = 164.6k psm : New, with 5% d.p.
4,100k / 32.5 = 126.2k psm : New, end unit, Rush sale
4,163k / 32.0 = 130.0k psm : New-1BR, end unit
4,173k / 32.4 = 128.0k psm : New-1BR, end unit, RFO

[drbubb]

WOW!
this seems like a lot of units:

"226 units listed for rent" in Jazz through Rentpad.

 

But actually, if there are 5,000 units that have been handed over, it is only: 0.44% vacancy rate.

 

However, that far underestimates, since units will be available through other channels than Rent pad.

And some owners may leave their flats empty for various reasons, such as they plan to sell them

[Euro Chocozone Buyer]

Hi

 

Most of the units in this building are perhaps studio units and this is where the competition will be the hardest. I believe there are very few 1Br and probably even less 2Br units

in this or in most of these similar buildings so studio units look particularly oversupplied. Actually most SMDC projects look like a mass housing projects which is why I invested

only in 1 project of them. I think that - in the case of a (severe) correction in prices - , studio units will fall the most in value, and 1B, and 2BR-3BR will fall the least.

That is my humble opinion.

[drbubb]

Yes, there are many 1BR and Studio flats in this project and other projects.

 

But the prices is (was?) attractive at below the P 3.2 Million VAT threshold (beyond that, add 12%)

There are many people with family homes in the provinces who want a base in the City,

so they can walk to work and avoid Manila's well-known traffic problems.

 

In fact, if you think about it, building many small flats in job-rich areas like Makati (the No.1 CBD in the Philippines),

might be the best way to reduced traffic congestion

 

Because of their higher cost, nearly all flats in Makati above 1BR are priced above the VAT threshold

[MrCashFlow]

Hi guys.

 

I also want to add that anecdotal evidence from other brokers in the area point to a low occupancy in the towers, at least for long term leasing (6 months upwards). As a disclosure, I operate a short term leasing operation in the towers with furnishing and management services offered to other unit owners.

 

The existing operator seems to be able to capture more customers at even higher rates than what I charge. From this, together with the amount of people we see that comes and goes in the towers, we are willing to expand our operations further in the area.

 

I'd also like to note that for interested investors, there are properties that are selling at 100k/sqm from motivated sellers. Out of the 4 that I know of, only 1 is still available as of two days ago.

[drbubb]

Interesting.
People who are considering to Buy or Rent long term, might want to try staying in one of your units for a few days to a few weeks before making a longer term commitment.

That way, they get to know the building and the location better.
I think that a provider of ST lets, who also works as an agent might like to work with a potential LT tenant / Buyer who would take that extra precaution.

 

So I thank your for posting here, and bringing a more on-the-spot perspective to our discussion here.

 

JOIN Makati Prime ?

 

I am sure more people living in or near JAZZ, may want to JOIN Makati Prime (see post #3 at this link)

- and contribute to our discussion when they discover this thread about Jazz

[drbubb]

UPDATE - based on new data

=======

I will update the Price Estimate table from time-to-time, if/when I get new data.

 

Here are the latest chart : ( old chart to Q1-2016 )

Q2-2016:

... And the latest data:

 

Qtr.-Yr : Makati : xPct : Sell-Pr: Disc: "quick"// MakRentxPct: psm: Rent-SF- Disc = Bare (25 SM)

4Q /11 : 109,202 : 82 % : P 90.k :
4Q /12 : 118,000 : 83 % : P 98.k : 88.% : P 86 k // 720 :
4Q /13 : 134,908 : 83 % : P112k : 88.% : P 99 k // 805 :
4Q /14 : 144,500 : 84 % : P121k : 88.% : P106k // 838 :
4Q /15 : 151,300 : 84 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 883 x 90. % :
1Q /16 : 152,000 : 84 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 868 x 90. % : 781 : 19,500 - 4.0k = 15,500
2Q /16 : 147,500 : 87 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 858 x 90. % : 772 : 19,300 - 4.0k = 15,300
Aug.16 : 147.5kE : 87 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 855Ex 90. % :
(updated 8/22/16)

================

Data points used to produce the figures shown above:
Old :
+ 2Q /15: Seller seeking P 3,050M: Twr-B, 1-BR (/27sm? = P113k psm) , 35th Fl, Amenities (SSC-#3803)
+ 2Q /16: SM agents have told me recently that the cheapest flat still available at Jazz is near P4.0 million, or P135k psm, for a flat on the 29th floor which does not face the cemetery. I have adjusted it downwards to P13X k psm, based on my assumption that the middle floor is the 23rd, and I have made an adjustment of -xx%, or 0.3% per floor.

 

New : (I needed to replace the above - with new info; the P 135k psm, was just too high)

+ Aug.16 : the cheapest flat still available at Jazz is P4.1 million, or P128k psm, for a flat of 32 SM

 

(as of this update): 417 views, and 8 replies

[drbubb]

(A conversation from SSC's Jazz thread):

 

^interesting to see from 152k, now its down to 147k. Curious why.

 

That's from the Collier's report.
And I believe that is the mean Capital Value for 3BR Condos in Makati.
And prices are expressed in Peso per Square Meet

The website estimate Jazz prices to be lower than this:

From SMDC:
147,500 x 87% = P 128k

From secondary market
147,500 x 87% x 88% = P 113k : "Bid" price maybe?

Thus, a flat of 26 SM : x P113 = P 2.94 million

WHY DID IT DROP?
The market is drifting lower under the weight of supply.
There are something like 3,000 condo units to be completed this year in the Makati CBD, and another 3,000 or so next year.
With so much supply coming out, Rents are drifting lower too.

Q4-2015: P 883 psm
Q1-2016: P 868 psm
Q2-2016: P 855 psm x90% = P770 x 26 = P20,000 per month. estimated rent (furnished?)

I find it odd that the developers go on raising their prices, even though we can all see the market is drifting lower. I wonder why?
How realistic is it for developers to go on pushing prices up, when rents are falling.

== unquote, Dan Ortega ==

 

> SSC-Jazz : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1343265&page=202

[drbubb]

A friend has been asking my if there are units available now at P 12-13,000 per month

That is for a bare unit, obviously

Any takers?

[drbubb]

MARKET TRANSPARENCY: The Function of Jazz Everyman / and Makati Prime in Improving it

 

(A comment reacting to the info on this thread was posted at SSC):

 

H---:

I think I found the website you're talking about.

No I don't think these rates are realistic at all. They're prices he's speculating units were offered at, not actual prices.

The data sets he's using are pretty odd - looks like he's basing the historical prices on the Makati trend based adjusted downward because Jazz is apparently on a fringe area. These prices don't reflect what SMDC was offering to customers, and in any case you can't compare a pre-selling price to current market prices for finished condos.

Maybe someone that bought off the plan early can give an idea of what they paid?

I bought a place in Q4 last year - the TCP ended up just under 106K for a unit that was just below the VAT threshold. It has a balcony & great view of the Makati skyline.

Talking to the agents now, there seem to be only less desirable units left from the developer, and at prices above the VAT threshold.

The units that were still listed with a similar size to mine are in the undesirable parts of the building - low floors facing on to the new BPO, "end units" without balconies that are wedged between the buildings at the back and a few larger end units with a balcony that end up costing about 5.8M. From what I can see the cheapest units available from the developer are now about 4.8M TCP. In short, they're left with the dregs.

From a computation I was given, the TCP for a 36sqm unit at the end of tower C with a balcony was 5.8M - so about 163K per sqm.

Basically worse units are now being offered for much more than what was available 12 months ago.

That isn't to say private sellers can sell of their units at similar prices - the deficiencies in the secondary market here mean that its really hard to predict prices. I haven't really seen any advertised below about a 135-150K per sqm range recently though, but then haven't looked hard either.

==

> SSC

 

If H--- sees this, he is welcome to post here.

 

I will post a reaction later

[drbubb]

MARKET Transparency #2

REACTION to the POST just above:

 

They're prices he's speculating units were offered at, not actual prices.
The data sets he's using are pretty odd - looks like he's basing the historical prices on the Makati trend based adjusted downward because Jazz is apparently on a fringe area.

 

How else to estimate a price, when you do not have data.

From experience, I have seen that this technique works rather well in Hong Kong, when you have months or years of missing data for a particular property

 

These prices don't reflect what SMDC was offering to customers

 

Then, please share your own more accurate data, and give dates and details.

Where possible, I did find actual data points posted on SSC and elsewhere. But there was much less data than I would have liked

 

You can't compare a pre-selling price to current market prices for finished condos.

 

Why would there be a discount for pre-selling? (If that's what he expects)

The developers have pushed their pre-selling prices to very high levels. And once the big marketing machine is not there to back it, I think you could find LOWER prices in the secondary market, especially when people are buying properties that have been "lived in" and are not new anymore.

BTW, people can buy in the Priimary market (from developers) or in the Secondary market. But they can ONLY SELL IN THE SECONDARY MARKET.

I think smart buyers need to be much more aware of the secondary market than they are right now, and that is one of the functions of this website.

 

I haven't really seen any advertised below about a 135-150K per sqm range recently though, but then haven't looked hard either.

 

Those are OFFERS from Sellers, not BIDS. And they are very optimistic! I think many people in the secondary markey (who paid P 100-110k psm or whatever), would "bite your hand off", if they were offered P 135k psm

=== ===

 

What I am trying to do here is to BRING TRANSPARENCY and Honesty to a highly non-transparent market.

I cannot do that on my own. I need help to do it, not just mudslinging my people who may have vested interests in seeing higher or lower prices.

[drbubb]

Jazz Residences opportunity

 

https://www.property24.com.ph/1-bedroom-condominium-for-sale-in-makati-city-111686947

 

Hi

 

 

There's a second hand flat available in Jazz Residences, now for 3,2Million

from ZUMI HEIDI,

 

That's way lower than the market price of Jazz Residences, as advertised on manilacondostore.com

which is probably around 4,5Million now if bought from the developer.

 

http://www.manilacondostore.com/jazz-residences

 

At P3.2 million / 23 sqm ... that's P 139k per sqm

 

I do not think that is cheap - probably just a decent asking price,

 

The P 4.5 million price / 23 = P 196 k per sqm, which is VERY high, and represents the total purchase price (all installments)

with expensive developer financing

[drbubb]

PRICING MODEL, Updated

 

P139 k per sqm (above) - fits well with the Updated Model showing P 141k (below)

- as the expected Asking price in the secondary market

 

Qtr.-Yr: Makati :xPct : Sell-Pr: Disc: "quick"/ MakRent x% psm: Rent-FF- Disc = Bare (25 SM)
======
4Q /11 : 109.2k : 82 % : P 90.k :
4Q /12 : 118.0k : 83 % : P 98.k : 88.% : P 86 k // 720 :
4Q /13 : 134.9k : 83 % : P112k : 88.% : P 99 k // 805 :
4Q /14 : 144.5k : 84 % : P121k : 88.% : P106k // 838 :
4Q /15 : 151.3k : 84 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 883 x 90. % :

1Q /16 : 152.0k : 84 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 868 x 90. % : 781 : 19,500 -4k= 15.5k: 620psm
2Q /16 : 147.5k : 87 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 858 x 90. % : 772 : 19,300 -4k= 15.3k: 612psm
Aug.16 : 147.5k : 87 % : P128k : 88.% : P113k // 855E 90. % :
(updating)
3Q /16 : 146.5k : 87 % : P127k : ------- : ------- // 840 x 92. % : 773 :
4Q /16 : 150.6k : 87 % : P131k : ------- : ------- // 837 x 95. % : 795 :
1Q /17 : 154.6k : 87 % : P135k : ------- : ------- // 823 x 100%*: 823 :
2Q /17 : 161.5k : 87 % : P141k : 88.% : P124k // 818 x 100% : 818 : 20,450 -4k= 16.5k: 660psm
======

Quarter: Makati factor "OFFER" factor "BID" : basically sold out, so developer's price is now inflated*

 

RENTAL Levels (Asking side) appear to be better than the original Model suggested
818 x 90. % : 736 : 18,400 -> 14,400 / 25 = P 576 psm - seems way too low.
So I revised the 90% multiplier, up to 100% of the Colliers Per sqm figure
=======

Rentpad's data :
: Studio : 20sqm: 19,000 - 20,000 : 19.0k FF - 5k? = P15,000 Bare? /20 = 750 psm
: 1 BR - : 27sqm: 23,000 - 27,000 : 23.0k FF - 5k? = P18,000 Bare? /27 = 667 psm

 

The IMPROVEMENT in Rents relative to Colliers 3BR is consistent with high demand for low-priced units.

There has also been a decline in the number of Jazz units listed at Rentpad from 200+ to 153 long term units.

===

 

*The developer, SMDC, will sell off any defaulted units. but after the property is finished prices are raised,

and it is typically smarter and cheaper to buy a "new" or "almost new" unit (often in mint condition) from a reseller

[drbubb]

JAZZ, the Elevator Issue:

 

"I lived in Tower D, and being only 5 elevators, during 4:30PM-7:00PM the wait for the elevator is 10-15 minutes. The line stretches from the lobby to the front door daily.Also the service elevator isn't networked with the other 4 units, so that also adds delay because everyone presses both elevators button to hail them and takes the first one.
Tower B is better (more elevators and globe repeaters), but D was overall a horrible experience.

It's just too many units, too much volume.
Also, be careful if you're attempting to get Fiber, the nodes are limited.
I would live in Jazz again provided it was a lower floor. The location is great, but for the price, you can get more."

==

> SSC-#410