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Bitcoin jumps of 2017 & 2020 : $1,000, $5k, $10k, $50k & rising?

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The Bitcoin Uptrend broke over the weekend : 6mo : from March 1, 2020: High: 65,520


10d: Last: $56,095




I was sharing these charts and comments just after that apparent Top - on my viber chat


On  April 18th, I posted: "TEST of BTC uptrend line may come very soon now

BCH is already melting down, and is below $1000. ( I am hedged now on the half of BCH that I did not sell at over $1100.)"


BTC near $61,000, with a big test coming soon.

Bitcoin Is a Hallucinogenic That May Destroy Idea of Money: Jim Rickards' Pre-Debate Breakdown


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I worry that they want to BULLY people into hodling BTC, rather than using sweet logic & reason

How they see the future...


How they see the present, as prices begin a slide below $60,000

Sell your Bitcoin if you're going to be having a hemorrhoid every time Bitcoin drops. This is not a crash, not a plunge... This is nothing, and if you don't get that, you are going to be miserable owning Bitcoin.

> source:


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FULL: Bitcoin vs Gold Debate Michael Saylor & Frank Giustra - April 21st 2021 >


( Video unavailable. This video is no longer available due to a copyright claim by Stansberry Research.)


+ I am at 36 minutes, and I do hear Saylor addressing the Govt THREAT risk, which is real, and almost certainly inevitable

+ THREAT of Govt attack:  Saylor's rebuttal: "As soon as one govt buys BTC for their reserves, the price is going to rip."  So very telling, that he does not say "IF..."  He assumes away the risk! (Listen, people. Be discerning, do not be Buffaloed!)

+ Frank missed an important point.  BTC isn't scarce.  There are lots of near-identical clones, and it is easy to copy.  It is very possible that one of clones may one day get enough traction to beat the leader.  This point crushes Saylor's repeated claims about BTC's amazing technology,

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BEFORE the Debate, BTC was $61,000.  Now it is about $51,000. 

That's a  16% drop.  But "Saylor won", the Bitcoiners are saying. 


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  • 3 months later...

btc down to $33,000 after testing $30,000 - now near half the peak

i have shifted most of my remaining 5% of original btc position into bch


very limited volume in bch now

My own little obsession.  haha.  Not really recommending.  But percentage up move could exceed btc... if buyers come in.

At $457, bch is 72.3% below the peak near $1,650


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Bitmex has recently launch an Index - a Basket of Cryptos

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  • 4 weeks later...

Is the Bitcoin Bounce over?

65k - 30k= 35k drop. 50% retrace= 17.5+ 30= 47.5k; 62% retrace= 21.7+ 30= 51.7k

Bitcoin... update: 4yr: Last $45k


4yr: Last $47k


ALL data



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  • 3 weeks later...
On 8/19/2021 at 7:40 AM, drbubb said:

65k - 30k= 35k drop. 50% retrace= 17.5+ 30= 47.5k; 62% retrace= 21.7+ 30= 51.7k

; 62% retrace= 21.7+ 30= 51.7k



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  • 3 weeks later...

That 51.7k was the level I calculated for the Countertrend rally. Which is done now, I reckon/  

Now we need a C wave down to $30K or even $20K

$20k Bitcoin is next after hitting $52k, Gareth Soloway’s target 

Soloway had previously called the top of $52,000, which was then the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern.

Now, he is calling for a pullback to even lower levels, as low as $18,000 to $20,000 a coin, before a bounce back.

The exception to this would be if Bitcoin tops $65,000, breaking the previous all-time high; only then, would upside momentum be confirmed, Soloway told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.

“We’re seeing a follow-through today. We haven’t really taken out the low-pivot from that down day, that’s the technical level I’m watching right now. If that gets taken out, then you’re likely going down to the $40,000 to $41,000 level right here, and then all the way down to $30,000. You guys know my longer-term projections…eventually you’re going to get to the $18,000 to $20,000 marker on Bitcoin,” he said.

On the stock markets, it’s unlikely the S&P 500 will make new highs from here for the foreseeable future, Soloway said.

“One of the big technical things here is that this market has for the first time, since March of 2020, when the low was put in, it has made a lower low. That is a fundamental change in the trend of the market,” he said

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-09-20/-20k-Bitcoin-is-next-after-hitting-52k-Gareth-Soloway-s-target.html

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  • 7 months later...

Bitcoin back below $33,000 - Cut in Half!

Bitcoin futures ... 2020update / Last: 32,840 - $3,085 / 52 week range: $28,800 - $69,355.


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A Beautiful clear chart!  Covered 3/4 of my hedge in this last slide. 

If the channel holds, this will be the perfect time to be long again.   Boosted my BTC by about 50%, by shorting higher to hedge the drop we have seen now.

Longer Term, back to 2016


Suggests further potential downside to $20,000 maybe

Bitcoin's crash won't stop until $20k, can gold and silver survive? Northstar & Badcharts

BTC 5yr chart / Last: $28,600
BTC looks like it might be headed to $20,000 (eventually) on this chart too.
Shorter term, there may be decent support between $26-27,000 ... 10d / Last: $27,050
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LUNA CRASHES -97% !   in one day


The collapse of Alt-Cryptos like LUNA has been truly stunning!  In 2 days from $60 to $0.42... and lower

BOT - took tiny Crypto positions as follows:
ETH ,  ave. price: $1855 . Now:$1849
LUNA ave. price:   0.235.            0.257     
LUNAUSDT Perpetual : USDT 20x    0.257 -97.00% $4.67M vol.

Luna Nosedives Under $2, Loses 98% Of Its Value As TerraUSD Struggles To Regain Its Dollar Peg   /   

Following a day in which teetering stablecoin TerraUST (UST) bounced around $.90, it resumed its free-fall overnight to approach $0.30 before recovering partly to $.43 this morning.     ... LUNA is down a staggering 98% in the past five days, which has seen its market capitalization lose $25 billion this week.  Today attention will focus on whether the Luna Foundation Guard, led by founder Do Kwon, will be about to recover from this downward spiral. The Block reported yesterday that the team was in talks to obtain $1 billion in additional collateral from unnamed hedge funds and market makers. However, that has not come to fruition.

This morning, Kwon expressed support for a new community-driven plan that will mint additional LUNA in an effort to absorb the excessive UST sell-pressure. However, even if this succeeds, it will likely require LUNA’s biggest backers, which include prominent crypto shops such as Pantera, BlockTower, and Galaxy to endure additional haircuts. 

> https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2022/05/11/luna-nosedives-under-2-loses-98-of-its-value-as-terraust-struggles-to-regain-its-dollar-peg/?sh=162311244c1f

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It has been a bloodbath week, as some called it, for the crypto market.

Stablecoin USDTerra, or UST USTUSD, 21.42%, once among the top 10 largest cryptocurrency by market cap, lost its 1 to 1 peg against the U.S. dollar, falling to as low as 6 cents on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. LUNA LUNAUSD, 62.50%, another cryptocurrency backing UST, fell nearly to zero from over $80 in early May, with its market capitalization shrinking by more than $40 billion from early April.

It marks “the largest wealth destruction event in the short history of the crypto markets,” since bitcoin was created in 2019, crypto trading firm QCP Capital wrote in a Friday note.  

> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-winter-for-the-summer-how-a-bitcoin-market-in-extreme-fear-compares-with-the-past-and-what-to-expect-next-11652478402


Cryptocurrency luna crashes to $0 as UST falls further from dollar peg  

The sister token of controversial stablecoin TerraUSD is now basically worthless.

Luna plunged to $0 Friday, according to data from CoinGecko, marking a stunning collapse for a cryptocurrency that at one point was worth more than $100.
The demise of controversial stablecoin venture Terra has resulted in a meltdown in the crypto market, which erased billions of dollars in value in a single day.
TerraUSD or UST, is supposed to be pegged one-to-one with the U.S. dollar. UST has however lost its peg and on Friday was trading at around 12 cents, according to data from CoinGecko.

Bitcoin staged a rebound on Friday, jumping above $30,000 despite the ongoing woes ... 

> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/cryptocurrency-luna-crashes-to-0-as-ust-falls-from-peg-bitcoin-rises.html

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Downturn seems not done yet, based on timing and extent of retracement


Bitcoin Futures ... All: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 29,765  52 wk.: 28,105. to 69,355.



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(why did this "billionaire" never learn to read a cyclical chart like the one above )

Will Bitcoin Billionaire Investor Michael Saylor End up at McDonald's?

The MicroStrategy CEO and biggest corporate owner of bitcoin is HODLING for the long haul, come bull or bear market.


The reason MicroStrategy is so long on bitcoin is because its 57-year-old billionaire CEO, Michael Saylor, had an epiphany in 2020, when COVID-19 had shut down most of the country. Bitcoin, he tells me, "is an approximation of a perfect monetary system because it is correct. It has no inflation in it. It's not corruptible because it's decentralized." He believes bitcoin is the last, best hope of creating an economy that is independent of the machinations of politics, central banks, and connected investors who rig the system to benefit themselves at the expense of regular people.

While the economy tanked due to external factors, Saylor directed MicroStrategy to keep buying bitcoin regardless of the price. The company is committed to "hodling" for the long term, a position Saylor believes in now more than ever as inflation takes hold. 

And he's still saying that today, even as bitcoin has slid down to just $31,000 as I write this—down from its peak of almost $68,000 last November.

The video version of Reason's interview with Michael Saylor.

> https://reason.com/podcast/2022/05/11/will-bitcoin-billionaire-investor-michael-saylor-end-up-at-mcdonalds/

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Bitcoin vs. Gold

Bitcoin vs. Gold and GLD ... from 5.12.17: 12.25.205yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d/ $29.765 / $1812 = r16.4, / $169 = r176.1


: 12.25.205yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d/ $29.765 / $1812 = r16.4, / $169 = r176.1


Bitcoin to Gold Ratio is "well-behaved" and a BUY at r-15.0



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  • 1 month later...

COVERED  BTC short at $19,123, and Bought ETH at $1,004

Is this the End or the Beginning of the Crypto Meltdown

Why MicroStrategy Did Not Receive A Margin Call Even Though Bitcoin Fell Below $21,000

MicroStrategy bought vast amounts of Bitcoin using a combination of debt and cash since 2020. Their average price of holding is $30,700, and now the price of Bitcoin is $20,443. But despite that, they have not yet faced margin calls.

The company has been buying Bitcoin since 2020 using a combination of debt and cash. In March 2022, MicroStrategy took a $205 million loan from Silvergate Bank to buy BTC.

The interest-only loan was given to MacroStrategy LLC, a subsidiary of MicroStrategy, which is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, New York, and was secured by BTC as collateral. The company had 129,218 BTC at an average price of $30,700 as on March 31, 2022.

> https://www.outlookindia.com/business/why-microstrategy-did-not-receive-a-margin-call-even-though-bitcoin-fell-below-21-000-news-203130

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Bitcoin Futures ... update: Friday: $20,625 .  Sat trading OTC: $18,815 Low (so far)


Different channel follows


ETHE / Grayscale Ethereum Trust... update: $7.08 x 149.5 = ETH-$1060:  $7.08/ 0.660 = $10.72 x99. = $1060

High: $47.40 x102.8= ETH-$4,873... last ETH: $1,000 /149.5 = $6.69


ETHE Discount or Premium to NAV - YChartsx

Is Grayscale ethereum trust trading at a discount?
ETHE Discount or Premium to NAV: -33.41% for June 13, 2022.

Discount/Premium to NAV Definition

The discount/premium to NAV is a percentage that calculates the amount that an exchange traded fund or closed end fund is trading above or below its net asset value. This metric can be a valuable metric to track how far away a security is trading away from its true value. This is an important metric for closed end funds specifically because CEFs don't issue any additional shares after its initial offering. This can cause the price to stray away from the true net asset value of the holdings in...

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  • 3 months later...

NFTs have been a disaster.  One that will be remembered... and keep people away.  Is this how Cryptos die? 

NFT Trading Volume Plunges 97% Since January, Raising Questions About Their Future

The downturn has raised questions about whether there is a sustainable future for NFTs in the art world. While NFT trading volume reached a record high of $17 billion in January, it fell to $466 million by September, as reported by Bloomberg.  

> https://observer.com/2022/09/nft-trading-volume-plunges-97-since-january-raising-questions-about-their-future/


Is there an ACTUAL NEED?   It was about the Crypto, not the quality of the ARTwork:  Others are less positive about the future of digital art. “I don’t really understand why NFTs are in the art world to begin with,” said Lisa Schiff, founder of art advisory firm SFA Advisory. She believes any artwork included in NFTs are overshadowed by the fact that NFT values are determined by how much people are willing to pay, as opposed to the quality of the art. “I don’t consider them art at all,” she said.

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Bitcoin's Cyclical pattern is still intact

Possible "Floor" at a 75-80% decline?


Bitcoin's Cyclical pattern is still intact
Shows Possible "Floor" at a 75-80% decline?
$68,789.630 times:
 -75% ( x25%) :  $17,197
 -80% ( x20%) :  $13,758
Maximum 84%:  $11,006

There IS a Crypto chat on Viber, which is now pretty quiet.  But I reckon it may help people get in near the actual lows.  By then, nearly everyone will have lost interest.  Haha.  Send me a PM, if you want to join us there.  I still hold some Crypto, but sold out 95% over $40-45k, and since then, I have just been playing with it.

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  • 2 months later...

Crypto Stocks dragged down too...  Bottoming possibly

Microstrategies, etc...  From 4.15.2021: Ytd: 10d / MSTR: $207, COIN: $47.67, HIVE: C$3.00




Crypto Stocks Teeter Near Abyss as Fink’s Warning Adds to Angst

(Bloomberg) -- Analysts and investors are struggling to call a bottom in crypto stocks in the wake of a brutal month that ended with the head of BlackRock Inc. saying most digital-asset firms won’t survive.

Cryptocurrency firms including Coinbase Global Inc., Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. and MicroStrategy Inc. all plunged more than 25% last month. The declines added to the pain of a dismal year amid a deep and extended plunge in Bitcoin and other digital tokens. While that trio of firms rallied this week, they’ve still wiped out roughly $52 billion of shareholder value in 2022.

Already reeling from the so-called crypto winter, investors were dealt a major blow with the high-profile collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange in early November, which sent Bitcoin tumbling. To top it off, BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink said this week that he expects most crypto companies will fold after FTX’s demise. A Schwab index tracking crypto-linked stocks is coming off its worst month since June, and is down 63% this year.

> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-stocks-teeter-near-abyss-150000942.html

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  • 3 months later...

The Rise and Fall of Silvergate’s Crypto Business

The bank’s own data shows the rapid acceleration of its novel crypto-banking business and how leaning into digital assets made it vulnerable to the industry’s drama.


Silvergate Bank lost more than $8 billion in deposits from its crypto customers in the final months of 2022 as its core block of business crumbled under the industry’s implosion – just as the bank’s regulators had predicted might happen for such institutions.

The sudden evaporation of most of its deposit base was only one of several worries for the La Jolla, California-based lender. The company has faced pressures from U.S. banking watchdogs that have been insisting that banks shouldn’t concentrate on crypto, and its disclosures this week revealed investigations from regulators and the U.S. Department of Justice, plus a suggestion that ongoing audits may require a restating of its financials.

Apart from all that, its one-time crypto strengths were starting to drag it down, according to a CoinDesk analysis of the bank’s financial reports over the past several years.

. . .

But one key difference between Silvergate and the more traditional Long Beach community bank is in the key measure of their capital. The crypto bank slid rapidly into the final quarter of 2022 to a so-called leverage ratio that revealed it maintained just 5.4% of capital against its overall assets. In the same quarter at the latter bank, it reported a ratio of 10.9%.

According to U.S. bank capital rules, 5% is the edge of the cliff, beyond which a bank descends below a "well-capitalized" designation and toward the territory of emergency intervention from regulators.

> https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-silvergates-crypto-business/

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Uh oh! The crypto collapse has reached the real financial system

Silvergate’s troubles may make it harder to get out of crypto and into dollars.

Silvergate, one of the most important banks in crypto, is in big trouble. Maybe existential trouble. 

Silvergate didn’t start in crypto. It started in real estate. But in January 2014, the bank jumped into Bitcoin, a volatile year — Bitcoin started the year at $770 and closed above $300 in December. “Some of the companies that were being formed at the time to provide services to this budding Bitcoin space, many of them were struggling to find and maintain bank accounts,” said Silvergate CEO Alan Lane in a June 2022 episode of the Odd Lots podcast. “So that was really where we started.”

. . .

Also among Lane’s clients: FTX. Federal prosecutors are now examining Silvergate’s role in banking Sam Bankman-Fried’s fallen empire. The more pressing problem is that the collapse of FTX spooked other Silvergate customers, resulting in an $8.1 billion run on the bank: 60 percent of its deposits that walked out the door in just one quarter. (“Worse than that experienced by the average bank to close in the Great Depression,” The Wall Street Journal helpfully explained.) 

In its earnings filing, we found out that Silvergate’s results last quarter were absolute dogshit, a $1 billion loss. Then, on March 1st, Silvergate entered a surprise regulatory filing. It says that, actually, the quarterly results were even worse, and it’s not clear the bank will be able to stay in business.

> https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/4/23623964/crypto-silvergate-bank-run-stablecoins-dollars

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  • 2 weeks later...

SBF STOLE $5 Billion by the Time he was 28. 

LIE-cheat-steal.  Is just what he does.  And the useful idiots worshiped him for his virtue-signaling

WOW.  Don't forget all the fanboy activity that was directed to this CRIMINAL just 12 months ago!  

How Sam Bankman-Fried made $10 billion by the age of 28 | FTX


FTX firms had $6.8B hole in balance sheet at time of bankruptcy.

Sam Bankman Fried’s crypto empire had a $6.8 billion shortfall in its balance sheet when it filed for bankruptcy last November. That included a deficit of $10.6 billion in the main FTX.com enterprise, while sister trading firm Alameda Research had net assets of $2.6 billion,  and FTX Ventures had net assets of $1.3 billion.  > https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2023/03/ftx-firms-were-6-8-b-in-the-hole-crypto-daily-tv-20-3-2023


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WAGES OF SIN are Less... if you are not the Master Criminal.  She still got paid well as an accessory to the Crime.   


Caroline Ellison made $6 million at Alameda – a fraction of Sam Bankman-Fried's $2.2 billion's haul.  

> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/caroline-ellison-made-6-million-100000548.html

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