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Manila BAY - Will it become the Tourist & Financial Center?

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Manila BAY - Will it become the Tourist & Financial Center?

Some think so - But various embedded interests will not make an easy transition.


Original Land Use plan may be expanded in several possible ways


Some new plans may be too ambitious... new visions keep getting announced, while the market waits to see how M-Bay will absorb a +188%

growth in Condos other the next 3-4 years

Manila Bay's Entertainment City / MOA already has casinos and projects racing towards completion - and some want to add more, like Solar City

The Future City Masterplan of Mall of Asia Complex and Manila Bay


ASIA'S FUTURE CITIES: A fight for the sunset as opposition surrounds Manila Bay "Solar City" project

hqdefault.jpg : Solar City would stick out into Manila Bay

Manila Bay is a special place for many Manilans but new developments are still being planned

MANILA: Watching a red sun dip below the horizon on Manila Bay is something special for many Filipinos.

Amid a fast-developing city, it is a point of nostalgia. It embodies memory and remains a daily reflection of warmth.

But the future view is going to be radically different.

From the water, new land will soon be forged for an ambitious 148-hectare reclamation project that will see a metropolis rise out of the bay and tower over the former “Pearl of the Orient”.


http://www.channelnewsasia.com/blob/3539032/1487694045000/solar-city-6-data.jpg : Solar City image

Solar City plans promise striking and ambitious architecture.

With a nod to the iconic sunset, the development named Solar City is projected as visionary, inspired, even revolutionary. Manila, the developers say, will finally have something iconic.

It promises to combine residential, tourism and business infrastructure, notably including an international cruise ship terminal, vast green space and a monorail transport system designed to improve interconnectivity with the rest of the city.

Manila currently has no dedicated finance area – with surrounding cities like Makati and Tagiug now the centres where money flows instead. Solar City aims to become a new hub for high flyers while also providing jobs to hundreds of thousands of people.

“Solar City, the way we envision it, will be a six-star development,” said Wilson Tieng, president of Manila Goldcoast Development Corporation (MGDC), the group behind the project.


“It’s been a 25 year journey for us and it’s only just starting.”

Solar City, in its various forms, has been stalled for a generation – MGDC first won the contract back in 1991 – due to various protests over environmental concerns.

But with the support of powerful figures at local and national levels of government, there appears no holding it back any further.


Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada, in support of the project, has said he wants to bring “untold economic benefits” to the city by tapping the billions of pesos of tax revenue expected to be raised in the coming decades. Meantime, President Rodrigo Duterte’s backing was seen as the thrust that finally gave Solar City the green light.FIshermen continue to ply their trade where the reclamation project is scheduled to imminently begin. (Photo: Jack Board)

“It shows the vision now of the new government at looking at the engines for higher growth,” said Edmundo Lim, Vice Chairman of MGDC and the man leading the push for the development since its inception.

“The 25 years have not all been wasted. Since we started this project a lot of new developments, new technologies and new ideas have come about. It could be a blessing that we were delayed so long,” he said.


Indeed, the proposed technology fitted to the new city is slated as world best. Using Singapore as an inspiration, Solar City plans to incorporate “enviable” innovative forms of renewable energy, waste water recycling, rain water collection, waste disposal and sea protection systems.The project is forecast to be completed within ten years.

An urban aquaculture centre and growing rice terraces within the city are also parts of the vision. “We owe it to the world for all of the new technologies and the new developments from which we can step up from.” Lim said.

“We are building for the future generations, it’s not enough today to just build a city, the buildings and roads and parks.

“We have to look at the effects of global warming, the effects of bigger population, the effects of waste disposal systems, so all of this has been taken into consideration.”

Yet, despite these promises, the entire concept has attracted a consistent chorus of opposition, from environmentalists to fisher folk to urban planners.

> More: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/asia-s-future-cities-a-fight-for-the-sunset-as-opposition/3537082.html?cid=FBia

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  • 2 weeks later...

EXCERPT from the Bubble thread

I am beginning to think that the BIGGEST BUST will come in the Manila bay area (and maybe small pockets like Century city.)

Even without the extra supply of visionary projects like Solar City

In Manila Bay, I think you will find a conjunction of these three negative factors:

Huge incoming supply, lower quality developers offering aggressive finance, and (maybe) low quality buyers availing big balloons.


The Supply increases for M-Bay are pretty shocking:

UNITS---- : --Stock-- : Estimated completions--------- : Next3yr : + Pct. :
Location: End 2016 : -2017- + pct. : -2018 : -2019 : End2019
BGC / Fort : 24,275 // 8,566: +35.3% : 3,858 : 3,022 / 39,721 : + 63.6%
Makati CBD: 21,633 // 4,784: +22.1% : 1,072 : 0,598 / 28,087 : + 29.8%
Ortigas -----: 16,250 // 1,489: +9.16% : 0,782 : 0,570 / 19,091 : + 17.5%
Manila Bay: 8,864 // 5,507: +62.1% : 8,531 : 2,614 / 25,516 : + 188.%
Rockwell--- : 4,159 // 0,346: +8.32% : 0,492 : 0,269 / 5,266 : + 26.6%
Top5 Areas : 75,181 / 20,694: +27.5%: 14,735: 7,073/ 117,683: + 56.5%
Other GrM. : 15,603 // 2,198: +14.1%: 0,824: 0,632 / 19,257 : + 23.4%
Gtr. Manila : 90,784 / 22,890: +25.2%: 15,559: 7,705/ 136,940: + 50.0%
BTW: the stock market does not seem to be buying into the Bullishness we are hearing
from property agents and the developers about higher property prices. I wonder why?
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  • 3 weeks later...

(Manila Bay developments were a "bet" on infrastructure improvements):

The Beginning of “The Glory Age of Infrastructure”

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W - Q3-2016 CBRE Research

New expressway connecting Terminals 1 and 2 of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) to the Entertainment City.

With the new expressway open to all motorists, the travel time from the airport terminals to the different hotels and casinos in the area was substantially decreased.
The new infrastructure will allegedly benefit the hospitality sector as added convenience attracts more tourist visits subsequently improving revenues of hotels in the Bay Area. Location and accessibility are two of the most important factors influencing real estate investment decisions and tourism activities.
This fact establishes the critical part that transport infrastructure plays in the determination of the next best location for property investment and development. The NAIA expressway’s lessening traffic congestion in surrounding cities will increase the desirability of investing in the southern Metro Manila area. Wanting to partake of the pie, major developers have been shifting to the Bay Area not only in terms of residential projects but commercial and office developments as well.

Aside from the high supply of land for development, lined-up infrastructure projects increase the potential of the area thus drawing real estate investments across all sectors

Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) plans to open a new mall within the Entertainment City next year.
The said Ayala mall will have an approximate area of 600,000 square meters, making it larger than SM Mall of Asia.
Furthermore, ALI intends to develop a Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) building and a 12-storey hotel within the mall complex.
The Bay Area is at present regarded as one of the biggest contributors to the Business Process Outsourcing Boom in the Philippines.
Visa, Inc. has recently opened a new BPO hub in Bay City.

The hub occupies a 6,300-square-meter...

> Q3-2016 : http://www.cbre.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Q3-2016-Metro-Manila-Market-View.pdf


This video shows the excitement

The Future City Masterplan of Mall of Asia Complex and Manila Bay Area

Published on Aug 15, 2016

Start investing now in your own Condominium Rental Property and earn a PASSIVE income for you in years to come. We are offering very affordable units with zero interest down payment in Prime locations all over Metro Manila.

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Another possible (but unlikely?) dream: the Manila "Bay City of Pearl"




Future of Philippines - Bay City of Manila

April 22, 2017

"may not happen"


Among the evidence that the country is developing economically is the presence of technology, high-rise establishments, advanced and modernized equipment especially in the field of medication, agriculture, labor and etc.

But how far this improvement will go?

A Filipino-Chinese conglomerate is said to begin an extensive reclamation project that will give rise to the “most integrated central business district” in the heart of Manila, “The New Manila Bay City of Pearl.”

Watch the video below.

If this project will push through, it would open a gateway to investors.

The project will also open lots of job opportunities particularly in marketing, construction, business, and to name a few.

While some are overwhelmed by the so-called development that the country may take, others pronounced that this might not happen.


> http://www.notey.com/@philnews_unofficial/external/15490665/the-future-of-the-philippines-introducing-the-%E2%80%9Cnew-manila-bay-city-of-pearl%E2%80%9D.html

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  • 3 months later...



An interesting article about the hotel 101 project in the Bay Area. (A project that I also investigated and looked into at that time)

The article mentions that resale units are now close to PHP4,000,000,

while the launch price was PHP3,100,000 I believe. Each unit is about 21 square meters I believe, so that translates into around

slightly less than PHP200,000 per square meter. For a condotel, i believe it usually costs around 10 to 15pct more than a regular condo unit.

Secondary market prices for all the SMDC units in this erea, I believe to be around PHP170,000 to PHP180,000 per square meter.


So this is another case where early investors did the right thing, because today buyers in the secondary market have to pay

a higher price than during the launch phase.

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Another article about the pros and cons of buying preselling properties.

Well the early investors in this Hotel 101 project appear to have done well

but that is not always the case.


I would also say that the early investors in DMCI Flair/Sheridan appear to have done well,

but whether the early investors in DMCI Kai Garden will do as well remains to be seen.

They are paying PHP80,000 to close to PHP100,000 (for studio units I believe) per square meter

so for them there is (far) more risk.


The planting of Japanese trees on the rooftop and the addition of a Japanese style Garden in this project

does not justify a 30-40pct price increase compared with the earlier DMCI projects in that neigborhoud.

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On 8/9/2017 at 6:35 AM, Euro Chocozone Buyer said:


Another article about the pros and cons of buying preselling properties.

Well the early investors in this Hotel 101 project appear to have done well

but that is not always the case.


I would also say that the early investors in DMCI Flair/Sheridan appear to have done well,

but whether the early investors in DMCI Kai Garden will do as well remains to be seen.

They are paying PHP80,000 to close to PHP100,000 (for studio units I believe) per square meter

so for them there is (far) more risk.


I like DMCI Flair because of:

+ Its lower price, and

+ good location very near BONI Station on the MRT

Few DMCI projects are so close to public transport

I see Transport in the Manila Bay area being a problem, unless you work there

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And now I am also seeing ads for the Admiral Grandsuites, which is the neigbouring tower. (also from Anchor Land Holdings Inc)

And it is definitely not cheap, -- at about PHP155,000 per square meter -- during the launch phase. How high will it go from here?



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SUPPLY Concerns : Manila Bay

On 8/22/2017 at 12:38 PM, DrBubb said:

Business World headline / & a look at Forecast Supply figures

Metro Manila condominium rents fall, selling prices plateau

(based on Colliers latest report)

+ VACANCY RATES will likely pick up further over the next 12 months with new supply

+ Consequence: Rental prices fell, capital values are plateauting

+ Vacancy rates at high-end condos were 10.9% at the end of June - Colliers expects rates to "hover between 11.0 & 11.5%"

+ Metro Manila's total condo stock is 96,000 units, with an addition of 2,300 units in Q2

+ For 2017 as a whole, Colliers sees an addition of 16,100 units, and a takeup of 7,500 units - hence the rise in the vacancy rate

+ Coming supply: 20,000 units in 2018, 8,000 units in 2019

+ Take-up rate is projected to be 8,000 more each year

Highest vacancy rates were: BGC = 14% (12%); Makati: 12.7% (11%) - prior rates at Q1 shown in (brackets)

Prices rises are slowing:

+ Makati CBD : +3.1% (was + 3.2% in Q1),

+ BGC / Ft. Bonifacio : + 0.2% (+ 2.7%)

Growth of supply in fringe areas, as impacted on rents and selling prices in the CBD's, since home buyers and tenants have other options


SUPPLY FORECAST (Revised from end-2016)

========= : End'16 : -2017 : -2018 : -2019 : -2020 : '17-20 : End'20 : % chg.
Ft.Bonifacio 24,200 : 4,100 : 8,200 : 3,000 : 0,000 : 15,300 : 37,500 : +63.2%
Makati CBD: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 0,300 : 06,100 : 28,100 : +27.7%
Rise/Air Res: 00,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 6,400 : 06,400 : 06,400 : Infin.
Ortigas Ctr. : 16,200 : 1,400 ; 0,700 : 0,500 : 0,600 : 03,200 : 19,800 : +19.8%
Manila Bay : 08,800 : 5,500 : 8,500 : 2,600 : 2,100 : 18,700 : 27,500 : +212% !!
Rockwell Ctr: 04,100 : 0,000 : 0,500 : 0,700 : 0,000 : 01,200 : 05,300 : +29.3%
Other Areas : 00,000 :
>> TOTAL-- : 91,100: 16100: 21300 : 8,100 : 3,100 : 00,000: 140,100 : +53.8%

Mak+Rise/Air: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 6,700 : 12,500 : 34,500 : +56.8%

After this year, the supply rise in Makati's CBD falls sharply - but are we seeing the whole picture?

Collier's seems to ignore the Huge lump of supply (6,400 units) from The Rise and Air Residences,

which I think will hit the Rental market in 2019 or 2020 - but Colliers seems to leave it out - Why?

If you include Air & Rise with Makati CBD, the combined rise is 57%, which is in line with the rise of 54%

for Greater Manila. Still, the big jump from these two in in 2019 or 2020, is bound to generate some sort of hiccup.

I hope it is a brief one. Allowing AirBNB in one or both buildings may help absorb the excess supply there faster.


The big jump in supply in Manila Bay (+212%) is a bigger concern to me,

We see + 8,500 units expected in 2018 - that's 97% of the end 2016 Supply of 8,800 units.

Can Manila Bay really attract so many new tenants, so quickly? I truly doubt it.

There is bound to be a disruption of Rents and also hotel occupancy.

Don't be surprised if Hotels push back by trying to restrict AirBNB activity.

SM may be especially keen to demand some restriction because they are said to planning to build a hotel

in Manila Bay. Will SMDC wind-up c"cutting off the legs" of their condo-buying customers?

I suggest extreme care in investing, and maybe analyzing the Supply situation more deeply that I am doing here.

If you do that, and agree or disagree, please share. This site is about truth seeking, not mere promotion.

> Excerpt from post on the DATA thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18811&page=17


Summary - increase in Condos units: over 2017-2020
BGC/theFort: +63%
Makati CBD : +28%
Manila Bay : +212%!!!
--- Overall : +54%

However that Mak.CBD # does not include The Rise & Air Residences.
If you add on the 6,400 units at Rise & Air, you get:
Mak+Rise/Air: +57%
THAT much may be manageable, but will bring some temporary hiccups, I reckon.

The huge jump in Manila Bay may be more problematic IMHO.
In one year (2018, with 8,500 units) M-Bay will add as many units as they have now!
Can the rise in M-Bay tourism really absorb that? It might really hit the hotels.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well that is exactly my point. I just read on facebook, Shore 3 residences (tower 4) from SMDC

was launched august 18th. In 10 days they sold around 500 units from the 600 units in that building,

so it is almost completely sold out in a matter of days.




I wish they had released more stock in the Bay Area because the price per

square meter is now around PHP240,000 -- that's almost the Ayala Premier price of

a couple of years ago in various areas.




So for all of you out there -- procastinators or lookers or hesitators or whatever -- the Bay Area

is now more expensive than BGC and even Makati, because a nice project

like the Rise Makati is "struggling" to sell its units at PHP190,000 per square meter

for studio units, and it cannot even match Shore 3.


This is the first time that I see the php245K-php250K price per square meter on ordinary condos

from SMDC. -- There is nothing special about these condos. They're just a mass housing project

in a nice location.

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The real market is NOT the price the developer sells at

- since it is not repeatable.

"I wish they had released more stock in the Bay Area because the price per

square meter is now around PHP240,000 -- that's almost the Ayala Premier price of

a couple of years ago"

(Mainland China buyers love M-Bay, since they go gambling there... & they meet many Property sales agents.

But when they try to rent out their newly-completed units all at once, they are likely to have some problems.

The rents they achieve may be WAY below what they expected, and yields much lower.

When they go to on-sell their expensive properties at a profit, or what they paid, they will be disappointed once again.)


YOU cannot sell at that price, nor can I.


(( The following is a discussion about Fair Market Value from a Viber group ))




I have a problem with how many people define "Market Value"
Is it:
+ The high price that many developers LIST their properties for?
+ The (much lower) price you get if you pay Cash?, or
+ The (still lower) price you would get if you resell the property?
I AGREE that if you buy from the developer you are paying the HIGHEST price.
To get a better price, PAY CASH and/or BUY IN THE SECONDARY MARKET, and negotiate well


Market value is the value in which a willing seller and a willing buyer will pay for a property exposed in the open market for a reasonable period of time both acting diligently and knowledgeably without any pressure or undue influence and acting in arms-length transaction. so, I would assume that fair market value is a value acceptable to both seller and buyer without any undue influence on them and that they are both knowledgeable about the market condition.


I wonder if buyers from developers are aware of the market conditions as suggested by the definition of fair market value?


Yup, so NOT the price offered by a Developer, and supported by Strong marketing, and financing packages -

Maybe: the price at which you can resell a property in the secondary market


I agree with A that secondary market will provide a better indicator of FMV as you can't sell it back to the developer anyway. FMV I feel has to be some sort of 2-way street



Yes, exactly: " FMV (is) ... some sort of 2-way street"

I reckon CONDO developers are often selling at 20-30% above Market value to unwary OFW's and Foreigners. Price difference, if any, in the HOUSE market may be much smaller


RiseMakati.com tracks resale interest at The Rise

Imagine how much better price you could get for (a secondhand property you want to sell), if you had armies of agents roving malls, and passing out brochures advertising your properties

Those (expensive) marketing efforts cost big money, and achieve a better price than you would find "between a willing buyer and seller". Also primary sales by developers are backed up by "financing packages" which you do not get with resales. In fact, I have heard that banks are reluctant to finance buyers in the secondary market, or may finance only a lower amount. Thus, they might provide a 70% loan against a P 8 million new property, but if the same property is resold at P 7 million, they might finance only 60 or 65% of that lower figure. To me, this is pure madness by banks (I used to be a banker, btw). Yet it may be reality. In my example, the bank finances P5.6mn (80% of FMV) for the developer, and only 60-65% of FMV for the resale market for EXACTLY THE SAME PROPERTY. I have been told this is happening, and if it is, it is because the banks are doing a poor job of assessing FMV consistently.


A, could it be that the lower prices in the 2ndary market is because the units have been used by users/tenants, hence, physical depreciation has kicked-in..just like bnew cars vs used cars?


Yeah, it is true that buyers from developers are usually not well informed about the market conditions especially if it is on a pre selling basis.. there are no actual comparable available in the market.. so, the buyer is just influenced by the marketing effort, the financing scheme, the promotional campaign and others.. actually,, fair market value is best determined by the secondary market.. but the problem in the secondary market is also the comparable because you can not get a good comparable from the Register of Deeds, from the BIR AND other sources..


"could it be that the lower prices in the 2ndary market is because the units have been used "

I have seen many cases were a property is resold when never used. - and the price is LOWER than the price offered at the same time for identical units by developers. Example: You can pay P 5.2 million to the developer for a high floor 28 sqm unit at the Rise. But if I want to buy or sell the same unit in the secondary market, the price might be P 4 to 4.2 million. Which price is FMV? I reckon it is 4 to 4.2 million


Yes, A, the fair market value is more or less on the 4.2 million selling price in the secondary market rather than the one from the developer..


Yeah, so we agree - but guess what, the banks might finance 70% of the higher developers value at the Rise, because the banks have much more evidence of developers prices than they have of the actual secondary FMV

But the reality is if the banks finance 70% of 5.2 milllion = that's 3.64mn, they may have a tiny actual collateral margin


Yes, the bank knew it but the problem is that if they rely on the secondary market, they will not be able to hot their target and may not be able to loan the money that they have..


As a banker, these kind of inconsistencies used to drive me nuts...

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  • 3 months later...

(As posted on a private Viber chat & on Mak-Pr):
About "high yields" at MOA / Manila Bay. 

It is Great now for overnight rates, IF you can find tenants.  Loads of Chinese are staying there.  
But after a visit or two, the Chinese realize how boring it is, if they tire of casinos.  

Now showing up in Makati, are many mandarin-speaking Chinese.  
Meantime, there is HUGE supply of new flats coming over the next 2-3 years in MBay.  
Anytime someone talks about high yields, ask him/her to back it up with actual hard data,
not broker-talk.  It would be interesting to dig into data and compare it with the supply coming out.
If they say they are using overnight AirBNB rates, that is nonsense, because they are meaningless
without knowing the occupancy rates - days per month over a whole year, not just at seasonal
highpoints - and there is "a lot of work involved in AirBNB" which might be worth P5-10,000 monthly,
or please share an explain a different estimate


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  • 1 month later...

M-Bay area - the hyper-spot of PH property bubble?:


"The same is also true for the Bay Area where SMDC raised the price for most 27square meter Breeze units from 5M to 6M.

(it is quite unusual that prices are still rising despite this development completed in 2Q-3Q 2017)"


I reckon that tens of thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors stay in  Manila Bay to be near the casinos.

Chinese like looking at and buying property,  So they visit the nearby showrooms, "like lambs to the slaughter" maybe.

It should be easy to SELL the properties to these types of buyers, (or to their PH based friends or relatives who buy on their behalf)

The CRUNCH time, will come when they try to Rent them - Who will rent there? And at what yield?

There is a really huge supply coming* at M-Bay, and at probably the main tenants are going to be short term lets to tourists.

Watch this space, because I reckon it will eventually end in tears.

This is my personal opinion, and I could be wrong, but I think the Rental rates are the thing to watch in M-Bay.

I have friends who live in Burgos, who tell me after 3-4 visits many Chinese visitors wind up in Burgos, or Manila,

because they get bored in Manila Bay.  How many (losing?) visits to the casino do you want before you want different fun?


*Manila-Bay Area Supply, is slated to rise by about 12,000 units in 2018 alone - that is a doubling in just one year!

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HOT TOURISM (& Mainland Chinese buying) - may be sustaining the Property market

(However, NAIA is operating at maybe 90% of capacity - so Clark needs development.)


"Foreign arrivals to the Philippines reached a record-high in 2017 and this sustained hotel occupancy rates across Metro Manila. We believe that continued arrivals from the country’s major sources of visitors coupled with the improvement of the country’s infrastructure backbone and aggressive implementation of tourism marketing programmes should play a key role in attracting more tourists in 2018
Visitors from neighbouring countries continue to dominate arrivals. Data from the Tourism department show that in 2017, 1.61 million Koreans visited the country followed by Chinese and Japanese tourists. The three markets accounted for 45% of total visitors during the year. Meanwhile, arrivals from the USA... reached 957,813
Colliers sees at least 3,400 new rooms being completed this year. From 2019 to 2021, we see an annual increase of about 1,900 units to Metro Manila’s stock. More than half of the new rooms will be in the Manila Bay Area
Vacancy rate
We project a lower occupancy rate of 65-68% this year due to the significant number of new rooms projected to open, especially in the Manila Bay Area. Colliers sees occupancy rebounding to 65-70% in 2019 to 2020 as delivery of new rooms tapers off.
Future Suggestion
We encourage firms to consider developing hotels near transport terminals including the proposed subways and airports and diversify outside Metro Manila. Developers and operators should emphasise cultural and historical aspects of old buildings that could be redeveloped into accommodation facilities."

> 2017-Q4-Hotels: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing reports/4q2017_colliers_quarterly_hotel.pdf

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  • 2 months later...

THE TRUTH has came out... On SSC

'Inflation' SENSE posted on SSC's Red Residence thread...
"Developer's inflated price.  That is the correct term.
Just last week a family friend wanted to resell their unit at Shore for 6M. I asked why 6M and they said SMDC says its the current value of their unit now. Had to educate them of the real basis of fair market value vs developer's price increases then showed them a list of resale units with prices starting at 4M to 4.5M."
> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1943080&page=2

2MN is a big gap!, that's 50% higher than the secondary market prices

(What is the "Real" price?  The above comment was a response to the following):

Originally Posted by 584C View Post
I don't think SMDC retain control over pricing because many Chinese agents' sales pitch for resale Sea Shell Shore units are "2m peso below market price". It is absolutely garbage lie. Market price is the price where people buy at. It should be "2m peso below developer's inflated list price".

In the last one week, I saw at least 10 preselling resale Shell/Shore units being offered at "24-27sqm" for "3.85m-4.20m". SMDC list price is at least 6m.

I doubt Megaworld retain control over prices. One Uptown Residences are being turnovered now. Can find preselling resale units there for 150k-160k/sqm compared to Megaworld's 220k/sqm inventory. Megaworld sold lots of Gentry Manor to Chinese at 250k/sqm list price. Quite sure there are discounts in Gentry Manor, because in Q4 2017, another developer sold preselling condos at a nearby lot at ~150k/sqm to Chinese buyers. I think there were so many buyers that the developer didn't even bother to do a sales launch. I know because my Chinese friend got an entire floor together with some friends.
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  • 2 months later...

Office space is growing also rapidly in the bay area.

From 180K square meters in 2014 to 400K in 2017 to 930K in 2021.

So there will be offices and people who work in office can fill the vacancies of the newly built condos over there.


20pct of all property transactions in 1H2018 in NCR were in the bay area. (according to colliers)

Connectivity seems to be improving.

"So manila bay, not just for gamblers or gaming companies, and not just for government offices,

but also for commercial and office spaces as well"... That 's what the lady concluded.

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Below is a picture of the 1BR flat 27square meter that is managed by my property manager FYI.



Over 3000 views for this ads... this is record breaking in terms of views.



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  • 1 month later...


They are throwing light on the Chinese BPO online gaming phenomenon. It is a different kind of BPO than in Makati/BGC where most BPO owners are Filipinos. Here they are almost all Chinese. They are directly flown in from China. The macapagal/MOA has no high rises due to the proximity of the airport. (= scarcity leads to higher prices)/ And then they say there is a need for "tens of thousands of condos" just to house these people.

And it is also surprising that the vacancy rate in the Bay Area is lower than in BGC, according to Colliers 2Q2018.

So as of now, still no train wreck.

And residential rents are also approaching PHP1000/ per square meter per month, on par with Makati/BGC.



In another video the guy wonders if Property Prices are just too high in PH now. 



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"So manila bay, not just for gamblers or gaming companies, and not just for government offices,

but also for commercial and office spaces as well"... That 's what the lady concluded. - from above

Colliers has been trying to get developers to build higher end units there.

So far the focus has been pretty narrow.

It is NOT where I want to live, but maybe they will broaden the appeal over time

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  • 2 months later...
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It seems to me that mr/dr Bubb has underestimated the potential of this area.



According to a report by property firm Santos Knight Frank, residential rental rates in the Bay Area surged by a whopping 62.2% during the 2nd quarter of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. This rate of increase is much faster compared to the other central business districts in Metro Manila.






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Short term squeeze possibly (Q2?  Will it continue into Q3? Q4?)

More supply, much more supply is coming.

SO FAR, it is being absorbed.  Will this continue?  We will see.

BTW, We have also seen a surge in RENTS in the "Little China" area of Makati.

>"Little China" / Tech Zone area, San Antonio, Makati

For the same proximate reason: The "china invasion" of Mainland Chinese coming to Manila to work in the POGO industry.  I see more squeeze coming in Makati, as three buildings at the City Gate end of Ayala Avenue are being completed at the same time.

(What I under-estimated was the impact of DOUBLE & TRIPLE SHIFTING, where one building could generate 2-3X as many jobs as a more conventional building.)


I wish you well with your investments in Manila Bay.  Personally, the area never appealed to me, since I find the reliance on gambling & tourism to be too narrow to pass my "makes sense" test.  And I would not want to live there/.  I am more comfortable with Makati as a focus for investing, and I am happy living there too.  In my own experience, I have certainly see a big jump in the number of people I see on the streets and in the restaurants and coffee shops, who look as if they have originated in Mainland China.  And they look more like workers than tourists.

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Manila Bay has overtaken Ortigas Center starting 3Q2018 and we expect the reclaimed CBD to overtake other established business hubs such as Makati CBD by 2021. By then, Colliers sees the Bay Area having a total of 29,500 units, higher than Makati CBD’s 28,700.






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