SIL vs. SLV, AGQ : Silver Miners vs. Silver etfs

[drbubb]

SIL / SLV : Silver Miners vs. Silver etf, with Ratio charts

SIL (30.08) / AGQ-33.19 = 90.6%, JNUG- 36.31, 120.7% :: SLV- 24.49, 73.8%, sil/slv= 122.8%

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((. UPDATED : May 2022, & Apr. 2024. ))

"Silver Shares  to start new rally? ... from SIL-$31.50 Low" - I said in May 2022

SIL-etc... : 10yr: 5yr: from Mar.2018:  Mar.2020 : 10d/ SIL: $33.93 / SLV: $21.28 = r-159.4%, / AGQ: $32.48 = r-104.5%,

... Before the breakdown, early May 2022

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SIL / Global X Silver Miners ETF vs SLV / Silver etf

These two are HIGHLY correlated. The look Suitable for "pairs trading" ... Late Oct. 2023

RATIO: SIL-toSLV : 141.7%

SIL vs. UGL. From \Nov'17: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: Ytd:   Late Oct. 2023

Ratio, SLV: $17.78 / $45.69 (UGL)= 38.9%. , was 37.9% (18.99/ 50.11)

Ratio: SIL-toUGL: $25.14 /$45.69= 55.0%

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Top 5 Holdings : Charts: 10d 5d : Top 10 : Full Holdings (.csv) :

As of 6/7/18

Net Assets %	Sym / Name	Market Price ($)	Shares Held	Market Value ($)
12.60	Poly.L / POLYMETAL INTL	8.91	6,034,946	53,770,653.00
12.43	WPM  / WHEATON PREC MET	22.03	2,407,875	53,045,486.25
11.73	kr:010130  / KOREA ZINC CO	403.16	124,165	50,058,570.69
11.67	Fres.L / FRESNILLO PLC	17.43	2,857,073	49,800,571.99
5.08	Paas   / PAN AMER. SILVER	17.77	1,218,877	21,659,444.29

53.51%

LINK to here: https://tinyurl.com/SIL-SLV

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CHARTS of Top 5  SIL components

Net Assets %	Sym / Name	Market Price ($)	Shares Held	Market Value ($)
12.60	Poly.L / POLYMETAL INTL	8.91	6,034,946	53,770,653.00
12.43	WPM  / WHEATON PREC MET	22.03	2,407,875	53,045,486.25
11.73	kr:010130  / KOREA ZINC CO	403.16	124,165	50,058,570.69
11.67	Fres.L / FRESNILLO PLC	17.43	2,857,073	49,800,571.99
5.08	Paas   / PAN AMER. SILVER	17.77	1,218,877	21,659,444.29

53.5% > Top 5

=======

SIL / Global-X Silver Miners etf ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

Poly.L / Polymetal Int'l             ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

WPM / Wheaton Prec. Metals ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

KR:010130 / Korea Zinc Co.  ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

Fres.L / Fresnillo PLC            ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

PAAS / Pan Amer. Silver       ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

==

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CHARTS of Second 5  SIL components

Net Assets %	Sym / Name	Market Price ($)	Shares Held	Market Value ($)

5.03	TAHO  / TAHOE RESOURCES INC	5.34	3,968,253	21,177,073.15
4.94	HL       / HECLA MINING CO	3.74	5,560,584	20,796,584.16
4.46	CDE    / COEUR MINING INC	7.77	2,415,590	18,769,134.30
4.40	SSRM / SSR MINING INC	10.30	1,797,368	18,512,890.40
4.20	AG-fr.t/ FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER	7.30	2,426,507	17,702,441.75

23.03%

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TAHO  / TAHOE RESOURCES ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

HL       / HECLA MINING CO ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

CDE    / COEUR MINING INC ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

SSRM / SSR MINING INC ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

AG-fr.t/ FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

 

[drbubb]

CHARTS of Some Other  SIL components

GPR.v / Great Panther ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

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On Silver's correlation with HK China & Property shares

This "Cluster" of prices came back together, all but one

"SLV correlation is better than with HSI" (historically, I had noted)

HK-2823 etc ... update

UPDATE - HK2823 & HK12 fell to the level of SLV - as HK10 got cheaper; now almost 35% cheaper

Sym. Stock -- : 07/04/17- Pct. : 07/05/18- Pct. : change :
2823-China50 : $12.28 (100.%) : $12.44 (100.%) : + 1.30%
SLV--Silver Etf : $15.30 (126.%) : $15.03 (121.%) :  - 1.76%
HK12-Hender. : $40.00 (326.%) : $40.95 (329.%) : + 1.02%
HK10-HangLG : $31.30 (255.%) : $21.20 (100.%) : -32.27%
HSI-- HS index : 25,389 (2068x) : 27,985 (100.%) : +10.22%

 

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FRES.L  - FNLPF  / FRESNILLO Plc ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last: GBP 12.04 x1.340 = US$ 16.13

Fresnillo Inc. is ... " engaged in the exploration, development, and production of gold and silver properties in Mexico.

Its properties include Fresnillo, Saucito, Cienega including the San Ramon satellite mine, Herradura, Soledad-Dipolos and Noche Buena."

PRESENTATIONS : http://www.fresnilloplc.com/investor-relations/reports-and-presentations/

World’s largest silver producer (58.7 moz in 2017) and Mexico’s largest gold producer (911.1 koz in 2017)
Total assets of US$4.7 billion and market cap of US$12.9 billion
(2018 Guidance)
+ Silver production from the Fresnillo mine continues to increase,  7-9% increase expected this year
+ Pyrites plant and 2nd Dynamic leaching plant expected to be commissioned in 2Q18
+ 2018 guidance: 67-70 moz silver & 870-900k oz gold

---------------------------: Act.2017 : Est. 2018 : /4 Qtrs. / : QTR.--#1 :
Production    : AG: oz 58.7M : oz 68.5M : oz 17.1M : oz 17.1M :
Production    : AU: oz 911.M : oz 885.M : oz 221.M : oz 221.M :
Ratio au/au    : / :  Ra - 75.0 :  Ra - 75.0 :  Ra - 75.0  : Ra - 80.0 :
AG eqv.Prod  :EQ: oz 68.3M : oz 66.4M : oz 16.6M : oz 02.7M :
Total AG eqv :TP: oz 127.M : oz 135.M : oz 33.8M : oz 19.8M :
Aver. AG price  = :+ $16.48 : + $16.50 : + $16.50 : + $00.00 :
Revenues------ : R : $ 2,093M : $ 2,228M : $ 0,557M : $ 0,500M :
EBITDA -------- : E : $ 1,060M : $ 1,130M : $ 0,283M : $ 0,250M :
Prod.Cost----- : C : $ 0,769M : $ 0,837M : $ 0,209M :
Per Ounce----- : c : ( $06.06) : ( $06.20) :  ( $06.20) :
Gross Profit-- : G : $ 0,925M : $ 0,986M : $ 0,247M :
Expl.Expend. : X : $ 0,141M : $ 0,150M : $ 0,038M :
Oper. Profit-- :OP: $ 0,709M : $ 0,756M : $ 0,189M :
--------> Per Eq.Oz : $ 05.58+ : $ 05.60+ :$ 05.60+ :

Shares OS--------- : 730.0 Mn : 730.0 Mn : 730.0Mn :
OP per share :PS: $   0.97 :  : $  1.04 :   :  $ 0.26  :   :
Basic EPS---------- : $   0.76 :  : $  0.81 :   :  $ 0.20  :   :
Cash & Equiv.---- : $ 0,896M : $ 0,900M : $ 0,900M :

NEWS RELEASES : http://www.fresnilloplc.com/investor-relations/regulatory-announcements/

News / Advfn : May 30 : Fresnillo : 2018 Production Guidance :

Silver-and-gold miner Fresnillo PLC (FRES.LN) said on Wednesday that its 2018 production outlook remains unchanged.

Mexico-based Fresnillo said it remains on-track to produce between 67 million and 70 million ounces of silver, and 870,000 to 900,000 ounces of gold.

Fresnillo said it expects to approve the development of its 56%-owned Juanicipio silver mine project, in the Zacatecas state of Mexico, "in the coming months", with a target of beginning production in mid-2020.

Forums : advfn : iii (unpopular) :

06/08/18 : I think it was the failure to hold 1300 that has triggered the drop. The 1299 finish yesterday was a victory for the bears. It will have another run at it soon enough, but someone or more likely, some computer bot really doesn't want this over 1300.

[drbubb]

CDE    / COEUR MINING INC ... All : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

Coeur Mining, Inc. is a well-diversified, growing precious metals producer with five mines in North America. Coeur produces from its wholly-owned operations: the Palmarejo silver-gold complex in Mexico, the Silvertip silver-zinc-lead mine in British Columbia, the Rochester silver-gold mine in Nevada, the Kensington gold mine in Alaska, and the Wharf gold mine in South Dakota. In addition, the Company has interests in several precious metals exploration projects throughout North America.

PRESENTATIONS : http://www.coeur.com/investors/presentations/

NEWS RELEASES : http://www.coeur.com/investors/news-and-media/news/

May 17, 2018 : Coeur Mining's Quarterly Silver Equivalent Production Increased 3.75%

May 07, 2018 : Coeur to Live Webcast 2018 Investor Day BusinessWire - BZX

[drbubb]

RATIOS ... involving Silver & Silver stocks (SIL)

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   03/02 :  03/29  : 04/27 :  06/01 :  06/08 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $32.29 : $31.73 : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.78 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $32.78 : $30.86 : $29.95 : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $30.21 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R2.021 : R1.971 : R1.924 : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.914 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $15.66 : $15.56 : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.78 :
Silver $16.58 : $17.15 : +3.44% : 17.285 : 16.710 : 16.470 : 16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.780 :
Prem : $ 0.94 : $ 1.17 : +24.5% : $1.065 : $1.050 : $ 0.910 : $0.858 : $ 0.930 : $ 1.00 :  $ 1.00 :
Ratio : + 6.0% : + 7.3% : ====== : + 6.6% : + 6.7% : + 5.8 % : +5.56% : +5.97% : +6.48%: +6.34% :

Ratio : SIL-to-SLV

Ratio : Silver -to-SLV : mid is about 106%

Ratio : GDXJ -to-SIL

Symbol Last-  Chg.: PRratio: Yield : Ern.Y : Payout

SIV -:  30.21 - 0.31 : PER-n: 0.02%: PER-n :
SLV -: 15.78  +0.06 : PER-n: Yld-n : PER-n :
PolyL : 661.6 - 2.40 : 10.59 : 6.53% : 9.44% : 69.2% :
WPM : 22.17  +0.14 : 158.4 : 1.62% : 0.63% : 257.% :
KrZn. : 428.k  Unch. : 12.46 : 2.33% : 8.03% : 29.0% :
FresL : 1216. - 000. : 20.53 :  3.56% : 4.87% : 73.1% :
PAAS: 17.61 - 0.16 : 18.15 :  0.80% : 5.51% : 14.5% :
TAHO: $5.34 +0.04 : PER-n : 4.49% : PER-n :
HL --- : $3.74 - 0.04 : PER-n : 0.27% : PER-n :
CDE --: $7.77 - 0.02 : PER-n : 0.00% : PER-n :
SSRM: 10.30 - 0.06 : 23.28 :  0.00% : 4.30% : 00.0% :
AG --- : $7.30 - 0.17 : PER-n : 0.00% : PER-n :
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[drbubb]

Fresnillo may have (finally?) bottomed

FRES.L ... 5-yrs : w/SIL, SLV :

FRES.L vs. SLV & SIL... 10d :

Fnlpf - FRES vs. SIL & SLV ... update :

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[drbubb]

Whoops!

Silver is down 29 cents, with a $17  drop in Gold

That Silver breakout may be getting unwound after weakness in EUR & strength in USD

[drbubb]

" Are you still bullish DrB? " - H.

EUR-vs-SLV etc ... update : SIL-vs-FRES :

SIL-vs-SLV ... update

Possibly SLV or SIL this could be a great buy here, given the big selloff. But I won't rush now*

It should make sense now to wait a bit, to see if there is a follow-through in today's very heavy sell-off.

The LESSON here seems to be that Silver could NOT lead the market higher on its own.

And the falling Silver shares, like Fresnillo & Korea Zinc - and the EUR itself, were a better predictor of the market,

than the rising SLV.

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*I was lucky, in a way,  I had some SLV calls expirying Friday, and I rolled them into (cheaper) SIL calls,

and Sold some AG/FR.t calls, replacing them with an outright long in FRES.L - so I was less exposed to today's selloff.

Since FRES.: pays a dividend, I I was buying it at below GBP 12, I see it as a better Long term hold & plan to buy more.

I was planning to buy some CDE calls today, but decided to wait until next week (at least)...

CDE / Coeur Mining ... 12mo

==

[drbubb]

Silver Not Done Rallying; Look For 8% Upside From Current Levels Kitco News03:02PM

According to Baker’s analysis, July silver futures initiated a new PriceCount when it closed above $16.865 twice this past week.

. . . Baker recommends trading July silver 1,000-ounce futures (YIN19) at $16.75 or better.

“Place sell stops at $16.30. Take half profits at $17.40 and then move stops up to break even. Exit remaining positions at $17.90,” the report said.

SIL

[drbubb]

Flipped ... to SLV -vs-SIL ... update

 

[drbubb]

Triangle Broke to downside - but Prices may be recovering now

SIL-vs-SLV ... update

[drbubb]

SIL / Global X Silver Miners ETF

Weekly ... All : 10-yr : 5-yr :

Fresnillo / FRES.L - World's Largest Silver Miner ... update :

[drbubb]

NEW LOW in DBA - the Agri-grain etf

DBA / Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ... update

Ratio: SLV -toDBA

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CDE / Coeur Mining versus : GLD-etc : SLV-etc :

[drbubb]

RATIO Updated.

On June 10th, I posted this

SLV & SIL-etc : 5d : 10d : 2mo : 6mo : SIL-$30.21 /SLV-$15.78  = Ratio: 1.914 / narrowed by 3.5% in 10 days

UPDATE : to 7/03/2018 / Before July 4th holiday

SIL $29.11 +0.49 / SLV $15.03 +0.12 = Ratio: 1.937 Tuesday from 1.920, on Monday
gdx $22.47 +0.39, gdxj $33.00 +0.64

FRES.L / FNLPF may be about to recover... post-Mexican-election ... update

==

 

[drbubb]

On Silver's correlation with HK China & Property shares

LOOK WHAT HAPPENED - haha! /

The "Cluster" of prices came together, all but one

"SLV correlation is better than with HSI" (historically, I had noted)

HK-2823 etc ... update

UPDATE - HK2823 & HK12 fell to the level of SLV - as HK10 got cheaper; now almost 35% cheaper

Sym. Stock -- : 07/04/17- Pct. : 07/05/18- Pct. : change :
2823-China50 : $12.28 (100.%) : $12.44 (100.%) : + 1.30%
SLV--Silver Etf : $15.30 (126.%) : $15.03 (121.%) :  - 1.76%
HK12-Hender. : $40.00 (326.%) : $40.95 (329.%) : + 1.02%
HK10-HangLG : $31.30 (255.%) : $21.20 (100.%) : -32.27%
HSI-- HS index : 25,389 (2068x) : 27,985 (100.%) : +10.22%

[drbubb]

 Valuation Catalysts for Silver Miners in 2018 and Beyond
By Annie Gilroy Jul 3, 2018 | 1:47 AM

Lowest and highest valuation multiples

Among the stocks we’ve covered in this series, Tahoe Resources (TAHO) is trading at the lowest enterprise-value-to-forward-EBITDA multiple of 4.4x. That multiple also implies a huge discount of 80% to its trailing-five-year average. Its stock price, analysts’ estimates, and its multiple took a severe hit after the Guatemalan government’s decision to suspend its Escobal mine license in July 2017.

 

Why Tahoe Resources Has Lost Favor with Analysts
By Annie Gilroy Jul 3, 2018 | 1:47 AM

Tahoe Resources

YTD (year-to-date), Tahoe Resources (TAHO) has risen 3.5%. Among the silver miners we are covering in this series, Tahoe’s percentage of “buy” ratings are only better than Hecla Mining (HL). Currently, 47% of analysts covering TAHO are rating it a “buy.” A year ago, 86% of them rated it a“buy.”

Tahoe

On July 5, 2017, the government of Guatemala decided to revoke Tahoe Resources’ permit to operate its Escobal mine. It cited the company’s lack of consultation with indigenous communities before starting the mine as the major reason for the suspension of its license. That led to the stock underperforming significantly in 2017. These issues are still ongoing, and the legal battle is expected to be resolved by the end of 2018 or in early 2019.
Revenue and earnings estimates

Analysts expect Tahoe Resources’ revenue to decline 9.8% YoY (year-over-year) in 2018 to $662 million. However, analysts are likely factoring in a favorable resolution to its license woes in Guatemala as well as other successful ramp-ups. They expect a 61% rise in the company’s revenue in 2019.

TAHO’s consensus EBITDA estimate for 2018 is $243 million, implying a margin of 36.4%, which is expected to widen to 41.8% in 2019 and to 44.2% in 2020. Its margins have consistently been wider than its peers (SIL) (GDXJ) Pan American Silver (PAAS), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Silver Standard Resources (SSRI). However, 2017 was an exception.

> https://marketrealist.com/2018/07/why-tahoe-resources-has-lost-favor-with-analysts

[drbubb]

Market sentiment for Coeur Mining

YTD (year-to-date), Coeur Mining (CDE) has underperformed its closest peers. Its return of 2.3% as of June 26 is still higher than the returns of -3.9% for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and -11.3% for the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL).

CDE is still trying to lower its costs, which are expected to be higher in 2018. That’s mainly due to these transitions:

    ramp-up at its Silvertip mine
    lower grades and higher stripping costs at its Wharf mine
    transitions to higher sustaining capital at its Palmarejo and Kensington mines

The company acquired the Silvertip mine in Canada in October 2017. It’s expected to increase production 7% in 2018. It has already started producing ahead of schedule.

Among Coeur Mining’s peers (SIL), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Hecla Mining (HL), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), and Newmont Mining (NEM) are also trying to increase production at the lowest possible cost.
Analysts’ recommendations

Among the primary silver producers we’re covering in this series, Coeur Mining has the third-highest percentage of “buy” recommendations at 56%. Another 44% of analysts are recommending a “hold” for the stock, and there are no “sell” ratings.

CDE’s upside potential based on its current target price of $10.50 is 32%.
Analysts’ estimates

According to Thomson Reuters data, Coeur Mining is expected to have revenue of $738 million in 2018, implying a rise of 4% YoY (year-over-year). That’s most likely the result of an expected increase in production as well as higher estimates for precious metal prices. In 2019, CDE’s revenue is expected to increase significantly, rising 3.5% YoY, mainly due to the start of its growth projects.

While Coeur Mining’s revenue is expected to rise in 2018, its EBITDA is expected to fall 0.6% YoY, mostly due to an expected rise in costs. CDE has guided for higher costs in 2018 due to the reasons we listed above.

For 2019 and beyond, Coeur Mining’s costs are expected to fall as the Wharf mine enters the high-grade area and Palmarejo’s production ramps up. Analysts expect a margin of 28.8% for CDE in 2019 and 30% in 2020 compared to 25.4% in 2018.

> https://marketrealist.com/2018/07/whats-baked-into-coeur-minings-analyst-ratings
=

[drbubb]

GPR / Great Panther ... all : fr.2016 :

Market Cap at $ =

website :

presentation :

[drbubb]

SIL has another chance to bottom

SIL / Silver Stocks ... 5-yr : 2-yr : 6mo : 10d / last: $26.79 (lo-yr: $26.53) / Slv: $14.50 = r-1.848

SIL - 2yrs

[drbubb]

Will take another look at this one...

CDE / Coeur Mining ... update :

[drbubb]

Coeur Mining Reports Q4 and FY Production and Metals Sales Data

BY MT Newswires
— 4:45 PM ET 01/14/2019

04:45 PM EST, 01/14/2019 (MT Newswires) -- Coeur Mining (CDE) said Q4 production was 3.5 million ounces of silver, 99,460 ounces of gold, 3.1 million pounds of zinc and 1.7 million pounds of lead, or 9.8 million silver equivalent1 ounces (12.2 million ounces based on average spot prices during Q4).

FY production included 12.9 million ounces of silver, 367,728 ounces of gold, 6.8 million pounds of zinc and 3.9 million pounds of lead, or 35.6 million silver equivalent ounces (43.4 million ounces based on average spot prices for the year).

Metal sales for Q4 were 3.1 million ounces of silver, 87,514 ounces of gold, 2.6 million pounds of zinc and 1.4 million pounds of lead, or 8.5 million silver equivalent ounces (10.7 million ounces based on average spot prices during the quarter).

Price: 4.90, Change: -0.03, Percent Change: -0.54

[drbubb]

SILVER related Charts

SIL ($26.35) - vs SLV, GLD ... update : SLV ($14.72, r-1.79) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)

Ratio : SIL-to-SLV : 1.79

SLV ($14.72,) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)

Ratio: SLV -to-UGL (r-38.2%)

David Morgan - Silver Will Shine Again Kerry Lutz - audio

MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/DavidMorgan07Feb19.mp3

SILVER should outpace Gold ... on the upside

"Last month, gold rose 3.46%. Silver rose 3.94%. That’s only about 14% better, but the point is that this pattern is the norm, not the exception, when precious metals are rising.

The last time precious metals prices were really on a tear, silver outperformed gold even more:

• From the bottom of the crash of 2008, London PM gold rose from $713.50 to $1,895 in September of 2011. Gold was up 165.6%.

• From the same starting point, London PM silver rose from $8.88 to $48.70 in April of 2011. Silver was up 448.4%—and in less time.

This is why I’ve said that if you’re a gold bull—which I am this year—you should be a raging silver bull."

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-02-08/Silver-Not-Just-the-Poor-Man-s-Gold.html