DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2018 Trading - v.115

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 114th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Everything will FLIP,  when the Trump card is played

> FLIP the Trump Card: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/topic/22098-flip-the-investigation-democratic-collusion-coup-attempt/

Politics will flip, and maybe prices too

================

DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2018 Trading - v.115

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Big Three" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

 

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
JUN
29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 99, 100 : 000, 1026

JUL
30: 279.84 - 1.58 00.0M: 15.26 : 21.27 - 0.05 : 115.65 -0..18 0.00M: 1231.5 $70.13 : $94.35 - 0.32 : 119.05 - 0.41/ 06, 104 : 000. 988
31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 04, 108 : 050, 1038

AUG

01: 280.86 -0.47 48.4M: 13.15 : 21.11 -0.17 : 115.14 -0.85 7.78M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $94.66 +0.11 : 118.46 -0.97/ 00, 000 : 000, 000
02: 282.39 +1.53 51.6M: 12.19 : 20.94 -0.17 : 114.52 -0.62 6.04M: 1220.1 $68.93 : $95.15 +0.49 : 118.63 +0.17/ 10, 010 : 045, 045
03: 283.60 +1.21 42.6M: 11.64 : 21.16 +0.22 : 114.92 +0.40 5.88M: 1223.2 $68.49 : $95.16 +0.01 : 119.22 +0.59/ 12, 012 : 025, 070
06: 285.64 +2.04 39.4M: 11.27 : 20.90 -0.26 : 114.33 -0.59 5.81M:
07: 285.58 - 0.06 43.2M: 10.93 : 20.66 -0.24 : 114.59 +0.26 5.19M:
08: 285.46 - 0.12 42.1M: 11.69 : 20.76 +0.00 : 114.91 +0.00 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $95.61 +0.00 : 118.78 +0.00/
09: 285.07 - 0.39 32.1M: 11.27 : 20.71 - 0.05 : 114.74 - 0.17 4.09M: 1219.9 $66.81 : $95.54 - 0.07 : 119.79 +1.00/ 00, 022 : 000, 157  
10: 283.16 - 1.91 66.3M: 13.16 : 20.56 - 0.15 : 114.69 - 0.05 6.66M: 1219.0 $67.63 : $96.27 +0.73 : 120.66 +0.87/
13: 282.10 - 1.06 00.0M: 11.84 : 19.98 - 0.58 : 112.96 - 1.74 0.00M: 1198.9 $67.20 : $96.66 +0.39 : 120.41 - 0.25/
14: 283.90 + 1.80 38.6M: 13.31 : 19.77 - 0.21 : 113.07 + 0.11 6.84M: 1200.7 $67.04 : $96.77 +0.11 : 120.14 - 0.27/ 00, 043 : 000, 349
15: 281.78 - 2.12 00.0M: 14.64 : 18.62 - 1.15 : 111.19 - 1.88 0.00M: 1185.0 $65.01 : $96.60 -0.17 : 120.84 + 0.70/
16: 284.06 +2.28 62.3M: 13.45 : 18.16 - 0.44 : 111.10 - 0.09 7.47M: 1184.0 $65.46 : $96.56 -0.04 : 120.83 - 0.01/ 00, 055 : 000, 460
17: 285.06 +1.00 57.2M: 12.64 : 18.72 +0.56 : 112.13 +1.03 7.92M: 1184.2 $65.21 : $96.13 - 0.43 : 120.98 +0.15/ 06, 061 : 050, 510
20: 285.67 +0.51 37.1M: 12.49 : 18.79 +0.07 : 112.69 +0.56 5.14M: 1194.6 $65.42 : $95.57 - 0.56 : 121.79 +0.81/ 00, 071 : 000, 580
21: 286.34 +0.67 00.0M: 12.86 : 18.88 +0.09 : 113.02 +0.33 0.00M: 1200.0 $65.84 : $95.09 - 0.48 : 121.38 -0.41/ 05, 076 : 055, 635
22: 286.17 -0.17 41.3M: 12.25 : 19.06 +0.14 : 113.27 +0.25 6.15M: 1203.3 $67.86 : $95.32 + 0.23 : 121.86 +0.48/ 04, 080 : 055, 690
23: 285.79 -0.38 42.8M: 12.41 : 18.46 -0.60 : 112.20 -1.07 5.39M: 1194.0 $67.83 : $95.60 + 0.28 : 122.05 +0.19/ 02, 082 : 033, 723
24: 287.51 +1.72 46.1M: 11.99 : 18.95 +0.49 : 114.16 +1.96 8.50M: 1213.3 $68.72 : $95.16 - 0.44 : 122.29 +0.24/ 10, 083 : 015, 738
27: 289.78 +2.27 00.0M: 12.16 : 19.28 +0.33 : 114.61 +0.45 0.00M: 1216.0 $68.87 : $94.72 - 0.44 : 121.59 - 0.70/
28: 289.92 +0.14 41.5M: 12.50 : 18.92 - 0.36 : 113.68 -0.91 5.95M: 1214.4 $68.53 : $94.77 +0.05 : 120.86 - 0.73/
29: 291.48 +1.56 52.3M: 12.25 : 18.99 +0.07 : 114.20 +0.52 5.58M: 1211.5 $69.51 : $95.56 -0.21 : 121.02 +0.16/
30: 290.30 -1.18 00.0M: 00.00 : 18.69 - 0.30 : 113.64 -0.56 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $00.00 +0.00 : 121.29 +0.27/
31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 -0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 -0.29/ 00, 096 : 000, 954
===

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update

Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d : prior month chart showed a divergence - but Gap of UGLD-TMF narrowed

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 5/01/2018

[drbubb]

Are we seeing Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

RED arrow: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Blue arrow: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

3-years

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

 

[drbubb]

Have GOLD prices Bottomed??

Last Month, I kept Asking that Question  ... I was early !

Gold closed on/ or just above the LOW for the year last night

GLD / gold etf ... update / Last: $115.14 - 0.85 / Low of Yr.: $115.12

[drbubb]

Despite the Left's heroic efforts, Comedy is NOT dead (yet)

This is what happens when you reply to spam email | James Veitch

 

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#2 is even better... as he moves on to Royal BS

More adventures in replying to spam | James Veitch

 

==

[drbubb]

It is rare that a housing market makes such a beautifully defined U-turn, after a long hard surge.
In Sydney, Australia’s largest housing market and one of the world’s biggest housing bubbles, prices of homes of all types fell 5.4% in July compared to a year ago, and 5.5% from the peak in September. Prices of single-family houses dropped 7.0%, and prices of condos (“units”) fell 1.6%, according to CoreLogic’s Daily Home Value Index:

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Australia-home-prices-Sydney-2018-08-01.png

[drbubb]

SILVER may also be making a cyclical low

SLV ... update

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Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread - We Are Seeing An Intermediate Term (i.e. Over A Few Weeks) Top For Prices,

The Outcome Of Which Should Be A Meaningful Decline For Stock Prices.

by Tom McClellan

We saw a really high degree of bullishness back in January 2018, when the U.S. stock market was making a big blowoff top.  Since then, the major averages have struggled to move higher, and so has bullish sentiment.  But in July 2018, we saw the Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread move up again above its upper 50-1 Bollinger Band (BBand).

That is a clue that sentiment is getting too far extended, but it is not enough by itself to say that the market is all done going up.  What is needed is a crossing back below the upper 50-1 BBand to say that a top is at hand.  And while this is a useful indication, it is far from being a perfect one.

The “50-1” Bollinger Band designation means that I am using a 50-day lookback period for both the centered moving average and for the standard deviation.  The upper and lower bands are set 1 standard deviation above and below that centered 50-day moving average.  Most software programs use a 20-2 setting as the standard for Bollinger Bands, but I have found that 50 days and 1 standard deviation is a useful pairing for sentiment indications.

[drbubb]

Kevin O’leary Warns Apple Investors After Value Reaches $1 Trillion

By: alexmark

 

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From U.S. Steel’s $1 billion market cap to Apple’s $1 trillion: a brief history of valuation milestones MarketWatch

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Trump Supporters Bail From Facebook, Twitter - Seeking Integrity & Truth!

By: alexmark

[drbubb]

China Says They Will Print MORE Money and Increase Risk Taking! Slow Growth and MORE Debt!

By: alexmark

[drbubb]

WEEKLY DATA (being updated)

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/06 :  07/20 :  07/27 :  08/03 ::
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 : 1231.1 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 118.86 : 116.56 : 115.83 : 114.92 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 275.42 : 279.86 : 281.43 : 283.60 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2718.4 : 2759.8 : 2801.8 : 2818.8 : 2840.4 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 219.8% : 227.6% : 230.4% : 232.2% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $75.67: $74.89 : $76.63 : $75.24 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $73.80 : $68.26 : $68.69 : $68.49 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.02 : r-18.04 : r-17.80 : r-17.86 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.880 : $2.760 : $2.780 : $2.850 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.820 : $2.760 : $2.800 : $2.760 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 515.25 : 516.00 : 530.50 : 556.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 373.00 : 369.00 : 376.25 : 384.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39 : 201.71 : 200.39 : 198.05 : 192.62 : 194.16 : 193.23 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.91: $17.44 : $17.47 : $17.51 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.04% :   9.05% :  9.00% :  9.06% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 : r-4.121 : r-4.294 : r-4.386 : r-4.300 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $93.97: $94.30 : $94.67 : $95.16 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 122.75 : 120.76 : 119.46 : 119.22 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 : 1231.1 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.532 : r1.565 : r-.54E : r-1.528 : r-1.539 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE  : 819.04 : 802.24 : 800.E : 800.20 : 794.90 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.06 :$22.68 : $21.31 : $20.94 : $21.18 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.31 :$22.61 : $21.78 : $21.32 : $21.16 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.70 : $33.50 : $32.09 : $31.92 : $31.46 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $28.88 : $29.45 : $28.09 : $27.53 : $27.23 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.910 : R1.953 : R1.925 : r1.889 : R1.878 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $15.08 : $14.59 : $14.57 : $14.50 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.200 : 16.070 : 15.550 : 15.490 : 15.460 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $28.75 : $29.31 : $31.11 : $28.13 : $28.64 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $43.33 : $43.41 : $43.96 : $44.69 : $44.21 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 2847.4 : 2799.8 : 2829.2 : 2873.6 : 2740.4 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7193.7 : 7180.8 : 7399.6 : 7701.4 : 7819.4 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $26.59 : $26.67 : $27.56 : $28.13 : $28.12 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 163.77 : 168.25 : 168.48 : 165.26 : 166.39 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1624 : 0.1585 : 0.1635 : 0.1702 : 0.1690 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $5,883  : $6,564 : $7,463 : $8,143 : $7,473 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  : 04/27 :  06/01 :   06/29 :  07/06  :  07/20 :  07/27 :  08/03 :

SILVER

[drbubb]

MAKE THE FUTURE GREAT AGAIN!

(is there a solution to the deterioration of TV series?)

Like all "remakes" where chicks were cast in roles made famous by men,

Star Trek Discovery was an Utter Failure

Star Trek: Discovery is an American television series created for CBS All Access by Bryan Fuller and Alex Kurtzman. It is the first series developed specifically for that service, and the firstStar Trek series since Star Trek: Enterprise concluded in 2005. Set roughly a decade before the events of the original Star Trekseries and separate from the timeline of the concurrently produced feature films, Discovery explores theFederation–Klingon war while following the crew of the USSDiscovery.

Sonequa Martin-Green stars as ... a science specialist on the USS Discovery...

> wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Trek:_Discovery

==

> Thank God, there is: Make it so! Picard's Star Trek will return

[drbubb]

• Net imports of gold by mainland China from Hong Kong were 81,304 kilograms, which is the most since March 2017. Gold reserve holdings in China have long been a mystery, as the nation often goes years without reporting increases or decreases, but reserves could be rising. China has kept its official gold holdings unchanged at 59.24 million ounces since October 2016, valued at $74.1 billion. The growing trade war with the U.S. and a slump in gold prices are reasons that China could be buying gold.
• 
• Newmont Mining Corp. beat its earnings estimate for the second quarter coming in at an adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.26 versus estimates of $0.21. The mining company announced a $275 million acquisition of a 50 percent interest in the Galore Creek project from NOVAGOLD. The acquisition will be a staged investment with an initial payment of $100 million then subsequent payments over five years after certain feasibility studies are completed. The Galore Creek project contains one of the highest copper grades in North America.
• Several gold miners reported poor results in the second quarter of this year, led by New Gold, which saw a 20 percent decline in pre-market trading on Thursday due to disappointing results at its key project. Goldcorp, Agnico Eagle and Barrick also experienced misses in the second quarter. Torex Gold Resources Inc. was downgraded to a hold from a buy by TD Securities analyst Daniel Earle, reports Bloomberg.
• xx

[drbubb]

Q breakout? A whole new ballgame for Pro-Trump news distribution

How long before we see Q-coin? haha

The mysterious pro-Trump conspiracy theory known as 'QAnon' is coming out of the Fringe...

Business Insider-1 Aug 2018

Believers in the "QAnon" conspiracy theories are increasingly making their presence known offline, including at President Donald Trump's campaign rallies.

    The theories hold that a cabal of elites, including celebrities, Democratic Party leaders, and the deep state, are the source of all evil and that Trump will conquer them all.
    The complex set of interwoven theories revolve largely around promoting a positive interpretation of Trump's leadership.

How 'QAnon' emerged

In October 2017, an anonymous person who claims to have access to top-secret information (and a so-called Q-level government security clearance), began posting cryptic messages on an online message board known as 4Chan. The vague notes are written in poem-like verses, which "QAnon" followers call "breadcrumbs," or clues to understanding Trump's secret counter-coup against evil.

Followers believe there will be a "Great Awakening" before a "storm" — an idea derived from the president's unclear reference last year to " the calm before the storm " — during which Trump will conquer elites, globalists, and the deep state. And Democrats including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will ultimately find themselves locked up in Guantanamo.

>

Killing Fake News - Can Trump do it?

[drbubb]

Clif High & Dick Allgire Talk Woo-Woo

 

[drbubb]

What you mean by the "Left"?

(because there is not and never has been any left wing politics in America ) - mSparks

DEFINITION

THE LEFT IS LEFT because they believe in big government, and do not trust Free Speech, and the rights of the Individual.

They rely on government because it has the means to extract (from others, thru taxes)  Resources that the Leftists cannot earn through their own efforts.

They rely on their membership of an Victimized Identify Group as a core rationale for why they are justfied in extracting resources from mythical Oppressors, without regard to what individuals in that oppressor group may have actually done or suffered in their own lives.

They need to Silence those "on the Right", De-Platform them, because the Truth spoken by those on the Right might puncture the myth of Identify Politics.  Truth threatens the leftwing game of extracting (thru govt coerxion) resources, rather than producing them through one's own efforts.  No arguments or actual evidence favoring their political views are offered.  The only measure of Fairness for those on the Left is the resources they are allowed to consume. The efforts that people make must not be measured or valued., is that might justify "inequality", ie a distribution of resources that is not Equality of Result.

> LINK: xx

[drbubb]

It's Not Trade War Or A Market Drop That Is Keeping Credit Investors Up At Night

Fast forward to today, when in the latest survey of European credit investors conducted by BofA's Barnaby Martin, the strategist observes that concerns about the market's ever shrinking liquidity have become the primary source of worry for professional investors, and as Martin writes, "it's not trade wars or an equity market correction that look to be keeping credit investors up at night." Instead, it is the fear of a "pervasive rush for the exit at some point in the future."

In other words, what is keeping bond traders up at night is the fear that when the selling begins, there will simply not be enough liquidity to absorb it all.

What is just as surprising, is that just last month the top investor concern was "Bubbles in Credit", i.e. excess liquidity, which one month later has now morphed into "Liquidity Vanishing", which according to Bank of America is the first time in 3 years that this has emerged as the chief concern.

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5NXVdJWKW

[drbubb]

Bitcoin Testing the Uptrend

BTC ... update

[drbubb]

A TRULY EXCELLENT RANT by Molyneux here

THE SILENCING OF ALEX JONES

 

[drbubb]

Gold Struggling to "find its footing", with the EUR (in Usd) falling

GLD ... 2-yr, 450d.MA : 10d : $114.74

EUR ... 2yr-450.MA : 10d : $ 1.1534

Gold ends lower, fails to notch 3rd gain in a row as stocks mostly rise MarketWatch

[drbubb]

BEAR WAVE (of sentiment) in the Gold market (& Bitcoins too)

REPORT: No Rally For Gold Until Mid-2019, Says Capital Economics ... Kitco NewsAug 9

 

CRYPTO Is It ‘Game Over’ For Bitcoin? Technicals Point To ... Kitco News

Fed's Evans sees one or two more rate hikes in 2018 as reasonable . ReutersAug 9

TRADER TALK; New Day, Same Old Story For Gold... Kitco Commentary