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DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2018 Trading - v.115


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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

Here's an updated SLV chart ... 3-yr-L : Next key support = about $13 (Silver=$14)

oqOIoC4.gif

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Emerging Markets, Turkey, Argentina, China All In CRISIS MODE as Currencies Fall! Markets Panic!

 

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GOLD may have overshot to the Downside

Just as it overshot to the upside a few days earlier

EUR & CNY vs. Gold etf ... update :

ZKRAOmi.gif

 

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These people (supposedly) lost one-third of their savings in a single week (not in crypto)

220px-Bo%C4%9Fazi%C3%A7i_K%C3%B6pr%C3%BC

Now the economy is getting absolutely destroyed.

Turkey’s currency, the lira, is down some 45% this year. Just yesterday the lira was down a whopping 7%.

If you don’t speculate in currencies very much, a 7% move in a single day is basically unprecedented. It almost never happens. So this is a pretty big deal.

And over the past week, the currency was down as much as 35%.

Think of it this way: in just one week, the savings of the Turkish people lost over one-third of its value.  

OR DID THEY?

The Whole World panicked on Friday, and Monday - then what?

Turkish Lira, update

sSm2eWl.gif

LET's See what happens, if/when it claws its way back to 0.19

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MINER Panic

A major selloff in Junior Gold miners is under way

GDXJ ... since 2011 :

aTBNsdD.gif

Last 3 years

XXazOKu.png

SIL/ Silver Miners ... since 2011 :

OJ6bq5x.gif

Don't like saying it, but that last chart suggests that even if we see a nice bounce now, a LOWER LOW may be needed

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DRASTIC times require Drastic measures.

(how soon before more zeroes get dropped?)

th?id=OIP.5ZQmtVoKIcbkkxVF1dyk8wHaEl&w=3

Venezuela Will Cut Five Zeros From Currency to Fight Inflation...

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Ancient Aliens' on the History Channel outperforms CNN at primetime now

SMALL_deadworld.jpg

CNN faced a shock horror moment over August 6 to 12 when they were beaten in the cable ratings by numerous competitors including the History channels Ancient Aliens.

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Main Source of Gold's selling pressure? A desperate country, protecting its curremcy

Turkey Has Sold-Off Half Of Its Physical Gold Holdings This Year To Defend The Lira

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Imran Khan elected Pakistan's prime minister

Khan will take oath on Saturday, form a cabinet and assume control of the government.

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Live
NEWS/PAKISTAN
Imran Khan elected as Pakistan's prime minister
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chief, who will take oath of office on Saturday, promises an era of 'accountability'.

by Asad Hashim
4 hours ago
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Imran Khan elected as Pakistan's prime minister
Khan, and others, took oath as members of the parliament last week [AFP]
Islamabad, Pakistan - Pakistan's parliament has elected Imran Khan as prime minister after his party swept the general election last month, vowing to bring an era of accountability and prosperity to the South Asian country.

Members of the National Assembly voted in the capital, Islamabad, on Friday for Khan to be leader of the house, making him Pakistan's head of state.

Khan secured 176 votes on Friday, beating Shehbaz Sharif, president of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, who got 96.

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Big trouble is brewing in the mighty North Dakota Bakken Oil Field.

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Hedgies Hit Record Short Gold As Gundlach Warns Bond Bears Of "Massive...Short Squeeze"

2018-08-18_10-25-15.jpg?itok=J9nuLB0w

Hedge funds have never been more net short gold...but DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach has a warning for bond bears.

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"Facebook Enshrines Stupidity!" Doug Casey Dumps On Social Media's Ubiquity

"Getting back to Facebook, I hope it goes bankrupt. I hate it as an institution. I hate what it does. I don’t like its policies. I don’t like its management. I don’t like the fact that it’s causing people to destroy whatever privacy they have left. While turning their brains to mush sending out selfies all day."

. . . Facebook was a clever innovation ten years ago. But you know, there’s an old saying in the stock market: High Tech, Big Wreck!

Just as Myspace was displaced by Facebook, I predict Facebook 2.0 will come along and replace Facebook. My understanding is that kids now see Facebook as something used by old people-- people over 21 years of age. So if it’s going nowhere with the younger generation, where’s it’s future? Maybe it picks up a billion new users in the Third World. Ultimately, what’s that worth?

Facebook may not be a terminal short sale, but I certainly won’t be putting any of my own money into the stock.

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How To Un-F*ck The Crypto Markets

Let’s Face It

The crypto markets are currently f*cked. Between the consistent manipulation they face, as well as specific issues per individual major exchanges like Coinbase Pro, Binance, and Bittrex, there is a lot to be concerned about when making even the simplest of token swaps and transfers. There are bots to beat, whales to wade through, advisors to avoid, and ICO’s to ignore. But adorable wordplay aside, the numerous obstacles in crypto markets today have jaded many investors and traders, and the hinderances have cost both annoyingly small to devastatingly large fortunes to many.

Regulating cryptocurrency would not necessarily unf*ck the markets by any means. In fact, it may just end up f*cking it even more. Here is a short list of cons associated with making crypto more regulated:

  • People have invested their money into crypto as a way to break free from centralized governments. If the biggest advantage to cryptocurrency (decentralization) was taken away, it would defeat the purpose of using it as an investment vehicle, and values would plummet as more and more limitations are imposed on what investors and exchanges can and can’t do. The ideological objective of cryptocurrency would ultimately be lost.

  • Regulatory practices can lead to abuse of power, and with decentralized assets in the hands of a centralized power, there would be major concern over how those in power are using cryptocurrency for their own agenda.

  • Unless regulations are entirely unflawed and seamless, those savvy enough to find loopholes in them would greatly be able to manipulate the new system in place.

As for the pros of centralization and regulation of cryptocurrency:

  • Regulation would strongly encourage the reduction of ICO scams, manipulative tactics, and complete exchange implosions. There would also be more price stability due to the strong decrease in pump and dump groups and manipulative tactics like wash trading.

  • Intentions of regulatory practices would be to build a safer space to invest in cryptocurrency. Ensuring the safety of exchanges would not necessarily end the deregulatory nature of cryptoassets themselves.

  • There would be an increase in awareness, and central authorities would be able to inform the masses of what crypto is and how to invest in it.

The irony of it all is that the unregulated nature of crypto brokers and exchanges is something cryptocurrency and its traders would like to maintain at all costs (even if many don’t realize it) in order to break away from the lack of freedom and flexibility typically synonymous with traditional brokerages.

> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-17/how-un-fck-crypto-markets

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A Bad Week for Gold and Silver shares , GDXJ: -11.2%. GDX: -7.95%, SIL: -7.58%
Financials down too, XLF off 6.0%, as Turkish crisis hits bank shares

GDXJ vs. GDX, SIL ... update / Last: $27.49 vs $18.72, $24.51

3h8qmU7.gif

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/03 :  08/10 :  08/17 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 : 1219.0 : 1184.2 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 115.83 : 114.92 : 114.69 : 112.13 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 281.43 : 283.60 : 283.16 : 285.06 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2718.4 : 2818.8 : 2840.4 : 2833.3 : 2850.1 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 230.4% : 232.2% : 232.4% : 240.7%:
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $76.63 : $75.24: $75.29 : $72.61 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $68.69 : $68.49 : $67.63 : $65.21 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.80 : R-17.86 : r18.02 : r18.16 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.850 : $2.940 : $2.950 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.800 : $2.760 : $2.740 : $2.630 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->: 861.75 : 892.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 530.50 : 556.25 : 546.75 : 579.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 376.25 : 384.25 : 371.75 : 378.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.39 : 194.16 : 193.23 : 191.69 : 188.74 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.47 : $17.51 : $17.21 : $17.44 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.00% :  9.06% :  8.98% :  9.24% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 :r-4.386 : r-4.300 : r-4.375 : r-4.163 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $94.67 : $95.16 : $96.27 : $96.13 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 119.46 : 119.22 : 120.66 : 120.98 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 : 1219.0 : 1184.2 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.532 : r1.528 : r-1.539 : r1.551 : r1.533 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE : 819.04 : 800.20 : 794.90 : 786.08 : 772.24 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.06 :$20.94 : $21.18 : $20.83 : $18.43 : -11.52%
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.31 :$21.32 : $21.16 : $20.56 : $18.72 : - 7.95%
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.70 : $31.92 : $31.46 : $30.60 : $27.49 : -11.16%
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $28.88 : $27.53 : $27.23 : $26.52 : $24.51 : - 7.58%
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.910 : R1.889 : R1.878 : R1.840 : R1.761 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $14.57 : $14.50 : $14.41 : $13.92 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.200 : 15.490 : 15.460 : 15.300 : 14.630 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $28.75 : $28.13 : $28.64 : $28.74 : $28.09 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $43.33 : $44.69 : $44.21 : $43.19 : $42.21 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 2847.4 : 2873.6 : 2740.4 : 2795.3 : 2669.0 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7193.7 : 7701.4 : 7819.4 : 7805.0 : 7583.5 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $26.59 : $28.13 : $28.12 : $29.97 : $28.17 : - 6.01%
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 163.77 : 165.26 : 166.39 : 167.53 : 168.35 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1624 : 0.1702 : 0.1690 : 0.1789 : 0.1673 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $5,883  : $8,143 : $7,473 : $6,462 : $6,495 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/03 :  08/10 :  08/17 :

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Meanwhile, in Oz...

Australia Home Prices Falling as Sydney Drops 7%!

Australians In Most Debt EVER IN HISTORY!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7Gy9h7ItUg

Household dept is 120% of GDP. Highest in the world

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Kitco

Gold Sellers Running Out Of Steam Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz
==

Gold had another tough week, breaching the $1,200 an ounce level and struggling to find its way back. But, analysts remain confident that the bottom is near and the yellow metal will see better days soon.

"It is time to bottom out as we expect limited upside in the U.S. dollar, a stabilization and some recovery in the Chinese yuan,” said ABN Amro precious metals and diamond analyst Georgette Boele.

Kitco’s own senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff said that the bears “appear to be exhausted on the downside,” with prices likely heading “steady up” next week.

On Friday, gold was seeing some corrective bounce back as the December Comex gold futures were trading at $1,186.00, up 0.17% on the day. But, this was not enough to make up for this week’s massive losses that saw December futures plummet from $1,221 to $1,167.80 in just a few days.

Many analysts, however, were not surprised by gold’s price action, citing outperforming U.S. dollar as the primary reason behind gold’s weakness.

. . . The type of action we are seeing now could be known as base or bottom building and a rally could be near. There is a lot of work to be done around the $1,180 level. First it must hold the $1,167 low from the other night. Second, it must start building a floor around $1,180. Consolidation would be the best action.

Gold appears to have found a bottom. There is no guaranty, but the price action suggests that the bottom is in. The best trade here is to watch and make sure the lows will hold. We are small buyers at these levels knowing support could fail and we may have to re-enter at lower levels.

Can Gold Get Back Above $1,200?

McKay expects range-bound trading next week with a small chance to the upside. “Look for it to rebound back towards $1,180, $1,185,” he said. “On the downside, we are watching to see if we can get back down to low $1,160- $1,150, which is the very worst case. On the upside, we are watching if we can get back towards $1,190-$1,200.”
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Are Some Central Banks Dumping Their Gold ?

Gold should bottom here... or maybe $30 lower

/ 2 /

Is a gold based currency board "Turkey's Best option"

Gold is Turkey’s Only Hope At Saving The Lira - Expert

 

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Tony C's Ewave charts

https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/1

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After the April SPX 2554 low the market rallied to SPX 2791 by June. We labeled this Minor wave 1 of the Intermediate wave v uptrend. The pullback to SPX 2692 that followed into late June we labeled Minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 has been underway since then. Early last week the SPX made a new uptrend high at 2863, we saw five waves up from the Minor 2 low, and expected a significant pullback if the market declined more than 7 points. The pullback started last Thursday, and continued into Wednesday of this week when the SPX hit 2802. At that low the DOW displayed clear positive divergences. While the SPX was just oversold. The market then rallied for the rest of the week.

spxdaily2.png?w=640&h=485

At the recent SPX 2863 high we decided to label that high Minute wave i of Minor 3. We did this because it was a simple five waves up, and similar in length to the three previous Minute degree rallies during Minor 1. The low that followed, SPX 2802, was quite naturally labeled Minute wave ii.

At Wednesday’s SPX 2802 low the SPX was 2.5% away from its all-time high. What makes this important is that not only does the SPX need to make at least all-time highs to end its bull market. The DOW, NYSE and DJ World index need to do so as well. And they were much further way than SPX 2.5%: DOW 6%, NYSE 8%, and DJW 9%. If the SPX were to rally 9% from Wednesday’s 2802 low, it could hit 3054 when the DJW makes new highs. We don’t see this bull market ending until all four of these indices make new highs.

SHORT TERM

After the SPX 2692 low in late June, we were expecting to observe a nice clear impulse wave to continue the uptrend. And we got it: 2743-2699-2848-2796-2863. Then we expected a pullback to the lower-upper SPX 2790’s, and the 2798 pivot range. That concluded on Wednesday at SPX 2802. From Wednesday’s low the market has now rallied straight up to SPX 2856. It appears the SPX is heading to all-time new highs (2873) in the coming weeks. The NDX/NAZ hit all-time new highs in this uptrend back in June, and are still rising.

==

image.pngsc?s=%24GOLD&p=W&st=2000-07-01&en=(today

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PSEI Index : "I think a target of about 7,800 looks likely " - written July 26th Near 7,000

A pretty decent call so far !

PSEI / PH Stock Exchange Index ... 12mos : fr.8.1.2017: w/ALI :

mJRR1zl.gif

PSEI and ALI / AyalaLand

c6ZXn3J.gif

==

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Is SOXX beginning to Warn of A Downturn?

SOXX / iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF... 10 day

F5jiY46.png

KLoE4NK.gif

It has often been a Leading bellwether.

SOXX vs IWM & SPY ... fr. mid-Aug.2013 : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d

/Last: $179.56 /SPY-$285.67 = r-62.9%, IWM: 168.82

INBzU6Y.gif

IjRdyvv.gif

The Ratio (to / SPY) has started down already - but could stall at yesterday's close

TyS5ZEP.png

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Eur & Precious metals etfs : 12mo : ... still in downtrend

axMmTdO.gif =

Xg3TgLT.gif

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