DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2018 Trading - v.115

[drbubb]

TOP of Page Header ... : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe :

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3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

BTC all data: 8yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d:  10d 5d / SLV-lv

NYXBT : 3yr : 3yr-377d : 1yr : 6mo :

02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50) =6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/( -750 :11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/31: 0.6817 x$7091- +200 =4834 -050:$7041Jun(+403):4800/(+603+12.6%):
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
05/10: 0.6937 x$9365(+000) =6497 +268:$9,533Jun(+003):6613/(+003+0.05%):+0000:$9,633+568,-.000: 9.90
07/22: 0.6932 x$7700(+000) =5337 +050:$7,750Sep(+000):5372/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$7,750+050,-.000: 9.38
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x$7,750= $1744: 3628: H:4762 /$1,134/.6937= 1635 = 9.38 to New High

CRYPTO---- : BTC &us$ - 07/22- : 05/10- :
Bitcoin-- : US-Dollars  @7,737 : @9,330 :
Cardano-- : .00002372 : $ 0.18 : $ 0.33 :
Bitc. cash : 0.10860---- : $0,840.: $1,761 :
Ethereum-: 0.06096---- : $  472.: $0,787 :
Litecoin--- : 0.01113---- : $  086.: $0,169 :
Ripple------ : 0.0000601 : $ 0.46.: $ 0.85 :
TRON------- : 0.0000047 : $ 0.03.:
EOS Token- : 0.001092 : $ 8.45.:

crypto mining companies

ATLEF vs Hive ... from 1.1.2018 :HIVE 7/20/2018 (vs.6/5): C$0.81 (1.12): RIOT: $5.90 (7.80), ATLEF: $0.12 (0.225)

 

[drbubb]

the-scariest-stock-market-signals-are-flashing-red/

Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, is one of those that is sounding the alarm.  Unlike price to earnings ratios, price to sales ratios are very hard to manipulate, and he has pointed out that price to sales ratios are higher than we have ever witnessed before.

In particular, when you look at the median stock price to sales ratio, it is the highest that it has ever been and it is twice as high as it was in February 2000…

He also shared a chart which he claims is “unfit for a family-friendly publication” that shows how in terms of median price to sales ratio, the S&P 500 is twice as expensive as it was in 2000.

“Overvaluation in 2000 was highly concentrated; today it is pervasive, with the median S&P 500 Price/Sales ratio of 2.63 times more than double the 1.23 times prevailing in February 2000.

To me, that number is absolutely stunning, and it shows that we have a long, long way to fall.

As I have said before, stock prices need to fall by 40 or 50 percent just to get into a neighborhood where they will begin to make sense again.

And something else that Ramsey has pointed out is that in 2018 stocks are behaving very much like they did just before the dotcom bubble crashed…

. . . 

Another major indicator that is “flashing red” is correlation.

Just prior to the last two stock market crashes, stock prices began to wildly diverge.  While some stocks were still going up, others were cratering big time.  This lack of uniformity is often a sign that big trouble is on the horizon.  The following comes from CNBC…

> MORE: http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/experts-warn-that-the-scariest-stock-market-signals-are-flashing-red/

/ 2 /

Chinese Investors Are Back to Dumping Hong Kong Stocks

August 9, 2018 by IWB

Chinese investors have lost their taste for Hong Kong stocks after a bump in demand in July. Mainland traders have been selling the city’s stocks this month, with net sales last week amounting to about HK$7.5 billion ($955 million), the third biggest weekly total on record, and another HK$4.5 billion sold this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Some mainland capital was forced to pull out due to deleveraging pressure on the mainland, while some chose to sell due to trade concerns and weaker expectations for the economy,” said Tang Jianzhuo, a Shenzhen-based portfolio manager at E Fund Management Co.

Shanghai Composite (monthly) bubble unwind before major turbulence in US?…

[drbubb]

PSEI may have peaked already

PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... Weekly

PHP Charts are contaminated by two bad data points - So I had to split this into two parts

WEEKLY ... All-data : To 1/31/18 ...

Daily ... from 4/18/18 :

FXFX ... from 2010 :

[drbubb]

Contrarian Delight: The Last 4 Times Hedge Funds Were This Down on Gold, It Rallied Hard

By: alexmark

Summary

• Hedge funds have bet heavily against a rise in the prices of gold and silver.
• We could be on the verge of a rapid move up in gold and silver.
• Silver appears to be transitioning into a bull market.

In an interview today, I spoke with Equity Management Academy CEO Patrick MontesDeOca about a special weekend report for the Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator (VC PMI) Early Bird Weekly Update he was issuing.

Looking at the July 26 commitment of traders report, it appears that hedge funds have bet heavily against a rise in the price of gold.

“Gold and silver hedge funds have the least exposed position to the gold market since 2016,” MontesDeOca said. “We are seeing one of the largest negative correlations ever. All the other times that they were this extreme, the gold market bounced substantially.”

Looking at the 24-year chart, the commercials for gold and silver have reduced their short positions substantially. It appears that the central bank short strategy risk has been transferred to the spec hedge funds in the gold and silver markets.

/ 2 /

Jim Cramer: Massive gold comeback could be right around the corner

In Tuesday’s episode of CNBC’s Mad Money, host Jim Cramer shared his view that a major breakthrough in the gold market could be near, reports Kitco. Cramer said that large speculators in gold are a good indicator of the metal’s direction and that, given the many short positions and the metal’s contrarian nature, we could soon see a spike in gold prices.

The latest trading report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that large speculators are the most bearish they have been on gold since December 2015. As Cramer pointed out, gold went on to post massive gains around the turn of 2016 despite negative sentiment. Carley Garner, a fellow analyst and co-founder of DeCarley Trading, agreed with the host and said that a move towards $1,200 could signal a reversal that would see gold treading back to $1,350 an ounce.

Besides bearishness in big money, Cramer listed other factors that could serve as further support for gold over the coming months. Spikes in inflation, rising rates and an exploding U.S. debt are all significant risks that could set the metal back on track before the year ends. To top it off, Cramer also noted that gold has yet to react to escalating tensions between the U.S. and some of its trading partners.

Cramer advised investors to buy gold instead of dumping stocks amid worrisome market conditions. With so many issues that could plunge various assets into turmoil, Cramer said that now is the ideal time to add gold to one’s portfolio.

[drbubb]

GOLD etf's

GBS / GOLD Bullion Secs.: UK's Gold etf ... All-data :

GLD - Log chart ... All-data :

HK-2840 / gold etf ... all :

==

[drbubb]

WEEKLY DATA (being updated)

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 : 08/03 : 08/10 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 : 1219.0 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 115.83 : 114.92 : 114.69 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 281.43 : 283.60 : 283.16 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2718.4 : 2818.8 : 2840.4 : 2833.3 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 230.4% : 232.2% : 232.4% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $76.63 : $75.24 : $75.29 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $68.69 : $68.49 : $67.63 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.80 : R-17.86 : r18.02 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.850 : $2.940 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.800 : $2.760 : $2.740 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->: 861.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 530.50 : 556.25 : 546.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 376.25 : 384.25 : 371.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.39 : 194.16 : 193.23 : 191.69 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.47 : $17.51 : $17.21 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.00% :  9.06% :  8.98% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 :r-4.386 : r-4.300 : r-4.375 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $94.67 : $95.16 : $96.27 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 119.46 : 119.22 : 120.66 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 : 1219.0 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.532 : r1.528 : r-1.539 : r1.551 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE : 819.04 : 800.20 : 794.90 : 786.08 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.06 :$20.94 : $21.18 : $20.83 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.31 :$21.32 : $21.16 : $20.56 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.70 : $31.92 : $31.46 : $30.60 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $28.88 : $27.53 : $27.23 : $26.52 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.910 : R1.889 : R1.878 : R1.840 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $14.57 : $14.50 : $14.41 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.200 : 15.490 : 15.460 : 15.300 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $28.75 : $28.13 : $28.64 : $28.74 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $43.33 : $44.69 : $44.21 : $43.19 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 2847.4 : 2873.6 : 2740.4 : 2795.3 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7193.7 : 7701.4 : 7819.4 : 7805.0 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $26.59 : $28.13 : $28.12 : $29.97 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 163.77 : 165.26 : 166.39 : 167.53 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1624 : 0.1702 : 0.1690 : 0.1789 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $5,883  : $8,143 : $7,473 : $6,462 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :   06/29 :  07/27 :  08/03 :  08/10 :

 

[drbubb]

DBA (agri.commodities) vs. Precious Metals (GLD, SLV) fr. 5.24.2013 : with GLD : $114.69 and $17.21/$14.41= Ratio 119.4%

==

[drbubb]

Buying property and stocks has been the only way to combat currency debasement and central bank financial repression. But booms and bust cycles are more frequent.

By: alexmark

 

/ 2 / Is something nasty starting?

Turkish Lira Drops Sharply, US Bank Stocks Hit Hard

 

[hector]

$1184 on gold coming up; let's see if it bounces

[drbubb]

It surprises me that Gold fell below $1200. 

Maybe the Friday drop in EUR was some sort of warning.

EUR vs. Gold etfs ... update :

August can be the cruelest month for Gold - on a seasonal basis.  If this continues much longer with some much Bearish sentiment, I cannot say how low Gold may go.  But it could signal the end of a long bear market since 2011.

Could GLD fall back to $100?  I think we need to ask this now

[drbubb]

Silver may need to go lower to find firm support - Below $14?

SLV ... All-Log : 10-yr-L : 5-yr-L : 3-yr-L : 3-year :

: 5-yr-L :

: 3-yr-L :

[drbubb]

Kim Dotcom Warns Of Economic Collapse – Says "Buy Gold And Bitcoin"

"Trust me. Buy crypto and gold. Your USD will become worthless.

With US economic collapse all old money currencies will crash. "

 

Kim Dotcom (Kim Schmitz), a controversial internet pirate and cryptocurrency advocate, recently urged all 736k followers to immediately buy gold and Bitcoin because President Trump is sleepwalking into a tremendous fiscal collision.

“1 TRILLION DOLLARS in additional US Govt debt PER YEAR!” warned Dotcom.

“US spending is funded by lenders who will never get paid. US Empire will collapse followed by a worldwide economic collapse. http://usdebtclock.org,” he added.

Dotcom began the warnings last week, which he said: “Trump was handed an Empire on life support,” and that “Top economists around the world agree that US debt is unsustainable. There is no sugar coating this. US Empire is broke. Prepare for collapse.”

About an hour later on Sunday morning, Dotcom tweeted again at his followers telling them about a simple hedging strategy (buy gold and bitcoin) against a potential economic crisis, which he believes could make the greenback worthless and result into a very “big crash” for markets.

[drbubb]

Russell Napier: "Turkey Will Be The Largest EM Default Of All Time"

 

The loss of hundreds of billions of assets recently considered liquid by global financial institutions, through the de facto debt moratorium of capital controls, will be a huge shock to the global financial system.

Markets have been gripped by fears that Turkey's economic crisis could spill over into the global economy as the lira nosedived to fresh record lows. The country's finance minister attempted to allay investors' concerns by promising to roll out an "action plan" to tackle the crisis but the currency plunged deep into the red when markets opened..

The lira extended its slump to fresh all-time lows. It briefly recovered from its worst intraday levels after the country’s central bank boosted liquidity in Turkish banks by lowering their required cash buffers. It then slipped back down to an 8.5pc loss after president Erdogan's appearance..

==

Regular readers of the Fortnightly will know that The Solid Ground has long forecast a major debt default in Turkey. More specifically, the forecast remains that the country will impose capital controls enforcing a near total loss of US$500bn of credit assets held by the global financial system. That is a large financial hole in a still highly leveraged system. That scale of loss will surpass the scale of loss suffered by the creditors of Bear Stearns and while Lehman’s did have liabilities of US$619bn, it has paid more than US$100bn to its unsecured creditors alone since its bankruptcy.

It is the nature of EM lending that there is little in the way of liquid assets to realize; they are predominantly denominated in a currency different from the liability, and also title has to be pursued through the local legal system. Turkey will almost certainly be the largest EM default of all time, should it resort to capital controls as your analyst expects, but it could also be the largest bankruptcy of all time given the difficulty of its creditors in recovering any assets. So the events of last Friday represent only the end of the beginning for Turkey. The true nature of the scale of its default and the global impacts of that default are very much still to come.

Strong form capital controls produce a de facto debt moratorium, and very rapidly investors realize just how little their credit assets are worth. A de jure debt moratorium at the outbreak of The Great War in 1914 bankrupted almost the entire European banking system - it was saved by mass government intervention. While the imposition of capital controls in recent years has hit selected investors hard, in Iceland, Cyprus, Greece and key emerging markets, there has been nothing of this size and it is to be fully borne by financial institutions who believe they hold not just valuable credit assets but actually liquid credit assets! The loss of hundreds of billions of assets recently considered liquid by global financial institutions, through the de facto debt moratorium of capital controls, will be a huge shock to the global financial system. This is a different type of default and its nature, as well as its magnitude, will blindside financial institutions.

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk (secure)] 

[drbubb]

A STRONG DOLLAR?

Will DXY hold the gains it made last week - & that crushed Gold

DXY / Trade-weighted USD ... 10-d : 12-mo :

: 12-mo :

[hector]

Reasonable to be fearful. However, gold will not be destroyed easily. It is the reserve asset of choice for bankers after all.

[drbubb]

Turkish stock fund is down 68% (from $60 in 2014), and is falling fast

TUR / iShares MSCI Turkey ETF... 5-yr : LAST: $19.07

06:39 U.S. stocks look set to pop higher as global markets try to shake off Turkish tantrum

[drbubb]

Top Silver Miner, FRES-nillo has been weak

FRES.L ... update

[drbubb]

Summer of '97? The SPX jumped 6% in the month after the baht took its bath.... EM is the canary for U.S markets. It's going to be swift and violent

By: alexmark

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5OCViFh3G

[drbubb]

The Shortage of US Dollars, says Martin Armstrong

August 12, 2018 by IWB

by Martin Armstrong

What people have to understand is that the Federal Reserve is moving in the opposite direction with respect to its monetary base. The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This peaked with the Economic Confidence Model turn in 2015 on October 1st. The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet and believe it or not, there has been growing a SHORTAGE of dollars contrary to those who keep saying the world is awash with dollars so buy gold, cryptocurrencies, or whatever.

. . .

CNY, EUR vs Gold etfs-... 5 day chart

[drbubb]

Meantime, back in Reality...

POLL: APPROVAL 50%...

only 49% Disapproval

[drbubb]

AFTER TURKEY, What?  A Hangover? (& maybe stronger Gold)

He likes Gold & Silver, because the Large Specs/ Hedge Funds "are almost Net Short" & Seasonal factors

"A really good chance that the next six months will be MUCH Better"

John Rubino – No Pain Free Option When You Borrow Too Much Money

 

XLF / Financials ... 10d :

[drbubb]

GOLD prices in Euros (& many other currencies)...

- Is holding up, as the USD rallies on Turkey's financial troubles & other EM news

Short Term : xx

 

[hector]

Worth going long on gold here at 1184..?

[drbubb]

I like Silver better here Below $14.50.

But how good have my bottom calls been recently?

Too many good set--ups ruined by lower lows.  (not only for me, for many other forecasters too.)

Eventually, an "ideal low" will hold

SLV hit: $13.53, which is well below $14

(from above):

: 3-yr-L :

[hector]

Hmm. Might be too soon for a low in silver to be created

Gold also failed to hold 1184 - wouldn't expect it to have a great rest of month

Looks like more of continue to wait and see.