DrBubb's Diary - Sep. 2018 Trading - v.116

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 116th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Everything will FLIP,...

xxx

> FLIP the Trump Card:

================

DrBubb's Diary - Sep. 2018 Trading - v.116

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Big Three" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

 

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
JUN
29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 99, 100 : 000, 1026

JUL
30: 279.84 - 1.58 00.0M: 15.26 : 21.27 - 0.05 : 115.65 -0..18 0.00M: 1231.5 $70.13 : $94.35 - 0.32 : 119.05 - 0.41/ 06, 104 : 000. 988
31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 04, 108 : 050, 1038

AUG
30: 290.30 -1.18 00.0M: 00.00 : 18.69 - 0.30 : 113.64 -0.56 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $00.00 +0.00 : 121.29 +0.27/
31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 -0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 -0.29/ 00, 096 : 000, 954

SEP
04: 289.81 -0.50 51.5M: 13.16 : 18.02 - 0.53 : 112.93 -0.58 6.54M: 1200.0 $00.00 : $95.30 +0.22 : 120.03 -0.70/ 12, 012 : 036, 036
05: 289.03 -0.78 63.4M: 13.91 : 17.87 - 0.15 : 113.32 +0.39 4.43M: 1201.3 $68.72 : $95.03 -0.27 : 119.71 -0.32/ 02, 014 : 020, 056
06: 288.16 -0.07 57.8M: 14.65 : 17.85 - 0.03 : 113.54 +0.22 4.74M: 1204.5 $67.77 : $95.03 unch. : 120.15 +0.44/ 03, 017 : 022, 078
07: 288.16 -0.56 71.7M: 14.88 : 17.88 + 0.04 : 113.23 -0.31 3.64M: 1200.4 $67.75 : $95.34 +0.34 : 119.13 -1.02/ 05, 022 : 032,  110
10: 288.10 +0.50 43.1M: 14.16 : 17.61 -0.27 : 113.15 -0.08 2.23M: 1199.8 $67.54 : $95.25 -0.09 : 119.57 +0.44/
11: 289.05 +0.95 43.8M: 13.22 : 17.57 -0.04 : 113.22 +0.07 3.62M: 1202.2 $69.25 : $95.19 +0.08 : 118.66 -0.91/ 00, 033 : 000, 220
12: 289.12 +0.07 54.8m: 13.14 : 18.11 +0.54 : 114.17 +0.95 6.08M: 1210.9 $70.37 : $94.80 -0.39 : 118.94 +0.28/ 01, 034 : 025, 245
13: 290.83 +1.71 45.5M: 12.37 : 18.09 -0.02 : 113.76 -0.41 4.83M: 1208.7 $68.59 : $94.60 -0.20 : 119.12 +0.18/ 04, 038 : 025, 270
14: 290.88 +0.05 48.2M: 12.07 : 17.98 -0.11 : 113.02 -0.74 5.34M: 1201.1 $68.99 : $94.95 +0.35 : 118.55 -0.57/ 02, 040 : 040, 310
17: 289.34 -1.54 59.8M: 13.68 : 18.32 +0.34 : 113.61 +0.59 4.68M: 1200.0 $68.91 : $94.58 -0.37 : 118.55 UNCH./
18: 290.91 +1.57 51.8M: 12.79 : 18.43 +0.11 : 113.44 -0.17 4.72M: 1202.9 $69.59 : $94.61 +0.03 : 117.31 -1.24/ 00, 46 : 000, 379
19: 291.22 +0.31 43.7M; 11.75 : 18.75 +0.32 : 113.88 +0.44 4.12M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $94.49 -0.12 : 116.61 -0.70/ 06, 52 : 070, 449
19: 291.22 +0.31 43.7M; 11.75 : 18.75 +0.32 : 113.88 +0.44 4.12M: 1208.3 $70.77 : $94.49 -0.12 : 116.61 -0.70/ 06, 52 : 070, 449
20: 293.58 +2.36 90.3M: 11.80 : 18.93 +0.18 : 114.27 +0.39 4.37M: 1211.3 $70.32 : $93.92 -0.57 : 117.15 +0.54/ 02, 54 : 050, 499
21: 291.99 -0.26 88.7M: 11.68 : 18.78 - 0.15 : 113.49 -0.78 6.79M: 1201.3 $70.78 : $94.22 +0.30 : 117.10 -0.05/ 02, 56 : 037, 536
24: 291.02 - 0.97 53.4M: 12.20 : 18.80 +0.02 : 113.47 - 0.02 4.44M: 1000.0
25: 290.75 - 0.27 00.0M: 12.42 : 18.85 +0.05 : 113.65 +0.18 0.00M: 1205.1 $72.28 : $94.29 - 0.00 : 116.68 +0.00/
26: 289.88 - 0.87 64.2M: 12.89 : 18.42 - 0.43 : 113.05 - 0.60 8.09M: 1199.1 $71.57 : $94.24 - 0.05 : 117.50 +0.82/ 00, 73 : 000, 673
27: 290.69 +0.81 50.7M: 12.41 : 18.43 - 0.08 : 112.05 - 1.00 7.61M: 1187.4 $72.12 : $94.97 +0.73 : 117.58 +0.08/ 04, 77 : 040. 713
28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 04, 81 : 040, 753

29

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update

Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d :

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 9/07/2018

[drbubb]

Are we seeing Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

3-years

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

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GOLD SLIP SLIDING away... retest of Lows coming?

PRECIOUS-Gold slips as trade, emerging market worries lift dollar Reuters06:31AM

Stocks Slide as Trade Concerns Hit Investor Sentiment The Street06:51AM

$1,204 Is Gold’s New Critical Level – Bill Baruch Kitco Video NewsAug 31

Jim Rogers: “Gold Might Turn Into A Bubble” /  Kitco Video News

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WEEKLY

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/31 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1206.7 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 115.83 : 113.68 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 281.43 : 290.31 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2718.4 : 2818.8 : 2901.5 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 230.4% : 240.4% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $76.63 : $74.44 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $68.69 : $69.80 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.80 : r-17.29 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.920 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.800 : $2.670 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------->: 843.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 530.50 : 545.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 376.25 : 365.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.39 : 194.16 : 192.96 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.47 : $17.06 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.00% :  8.84% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r-3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 : r-4.386 : r-4.363 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $94.67 : $95.08 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 119.46 : 121.00 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1206.7 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.532 : r1.528 : r-1.598 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE : 819.04 : 800.20 : 755.16 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.06 :$20.94 : $17.80 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.31 :$21.32 : $18.55 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.70 : $31.92 : $27.64 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $28.88 : $27.53 : $24.67 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.910 : R1.889 : r1.807 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $14.57 : $13.65 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.200 : 15.490 : 14.440 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $28.75 : $28.13 : $27.95 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $43.33 : $44.69 : $43.17 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 2847.4 : 2873.6 : 2725.2 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7193.7 : 7701.4 : 7855.7 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $26.59 : $28.13 : $28.33 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 163.77 : 165.26 : 173.02 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1624 : 0.1702 : 0.1637 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $5,883  : $8,143 : $6,971 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/31 :  

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The LONG "Last" Hurrah for SPX ? (as Emerging Mkts tumble)

SPX vs EEM (Emerging Mkts) ... update

Ratio: SPX-to-EEM

We are now seeing the Last Hurrah for stocks, bonds, the dollar and most asset markets.

by Egon von Greyerz

This is it! The autumn of 2018 will be momentous in the world economy, markets and politics.
We are now seeing the Last Hurrah for stocks, bonds, the dollar and most asset markets.

The world economy has been living on borrowed time since the 2006-9 crisis. The financial system should have collapsed at that time. But the massive life support that central banks orchestrated managed to keep the dying patient alive for another decade. Lowering interest rates to zero or negative and printing enough money to double global debt seem to have solved the problem. But rather than saving the world from an economic collapse, the growth of debt and asset bubbles has created a system with exponentially higher risk.

PROBLEMS START IN THE PERIPHERY – VAT COUNTRIES – VENEZUELA, ARGENTINA, TURKEY

So here we are on the “Eve of Destruction”...

. . . Take for example the VAT countries. Not Value Added Tax, but Venezuela, Argentina, and Turkey. Deficits, debts and currency collapse are the normal warning signals and these are certainly present at varying degrees in the VAT countries. As always, the best single indicator which reveals these problems is of course gold. As the chart below shows, gold in Venezuelan Bolivars is going up exponentially. Since May 2018, gold has gone up 23,000x or 2.3 million percent.

Argentina goes from one crisis to the next and gold is up 14,500% this century. Only since December 2017 gold is up 74% in Pesos.

Finally in Turkey gold is up 26% since May this year and 3,500% since 2000.

No wonder governments around the world hate gold. Because gold reveals their deceitful actions in destroying the economy and the currency.

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John Rubino: Many emerging market currencies are collapsing. These crises have the potential to spread across the globe, and could lead to the ultimate demise of the U.S. Dollar.

Many emerging market currencies are collapsing. John Rubino says these crises have the potential to spread across the globe, and could lead to the ultimate demise of the U.S. Dollar.

Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, and Pakistan all have currencies that are in crisis. These currency crises could be the catalyst for the crash of the U.S. Dollar.

How can people protect themselves? John Rubino says safety is found in physical precious metals. He explains why gold and silver may be set up for a spike in the next six months.

On the speculative side, he says the junior mining sector, if played correctly, may result in even higher gains.

. . . So here we are with emerging markets in crisis but US financial markets completely oblivious. There are two reasons for this, one reasonable at least in the short run, the other both baffling and infuriating.

#1: Reason one is that in a world of emerging market chaos, the US – even with an unpredictable government – looks like the safest place to park capital. Even at record-high prices, Amazon shares and Miami condos are less risky than, say, a Brazilian bank account. Fair enough.

#2: Reason two is that since the 1990s the Fed has responded to every crisis anywhere in the world by bailing out the US banking system, and everyone has concluded that that’s just how the world works. Trouble starts, the Fed cuts rates, and stocks, bonds and houses go up, problem solved. Without the slightest doubt, the Fed will respond that way again should the current EM crisis start to metastasize unacceptably. But will it work this time, with global debt roughly double what it was the last time the world was bailed out by its central banks? And how big will the financial market crisis have to be to shift the Fed and ECB from tightening to next-gen QE?

If events follow this script, we can expect a scary few months followed by plunging interest rates and massive, coordinated asset purchases by central banks. Which ought to be great for gold.

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Lynette Zang: Look For These Two Patterns Just Before The Crash

THE PATTERN SHOWS THE BREAKDOWN

By comparing past financial crisis patterns become obvious. My goal is to teach you how to recognize those patterns, so you can make independent, educated choices that supports YOUR best interest.

Typically, just before a crash what you hear is that this time is different. What you see is a hockey stick. This is where we are in 2018, you can hear it and see it, but do you believe it? I do.

What you hear is how gold and silver are a bad investment, but what you see is a double cup in spot gold, which is the strongest accumulation pattern I’ve ever seen. While the elite do not want you to own real money, they are accumulating it. So am I.

 

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Investor Alert: USD curve flattening, third reflation attempt failed, global slowdown, stock market utilization rate reverses...

The recent $USD curve flattening indicates that markets are in a late-cyclical mindset.

But what happens during the 6 months that precede a curve inversion in the US? See picture$NZD usually suffers a lot, while $JPY performs!

More in our FX weekly -> t.co/9IeHUvJYJl pic.twitter.com/cQTMWtfkVg

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) September 3, 2018

.@neelkashkari, has the third reflation attempt by the Fed failed? pic.twitter.com/NzJoD9FswC

— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) September 2, 2018

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XLF / Financials ... update : w/SPY :

: w/SPY :

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NIKE:  "Sacrifice Everything" Ad will kill their business

NIKE / Nike Inc. Cl.B ... update :

James Woods Calls for Shareholders to #DumpNikeStock, Sell Shares in any Mutual Fund Owning Nike Stock for Hiring ‘Dirtbag’ Kaepernick; ‘#DumpNike, #ScrewNike’

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#2:

> Surprise Index : https://www.yardeni.com/pub/citigroup.pdf

"Surprise" / Economics related fall underway -- in some markets

SPX versus UKX (Ftse) & EEM (Emerging Mkt index) ... 10yr : 5yr : 2yr :

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THIS WILL BLOW THE RUSSIA HOAX "wide open"

Sara Carter: Trump May Declassify the 20 Fisa Docs Congress Wants

Greg J: "We now know that Andrew Weissman is in on the hoax"

"I think Mueller is trying to wrap this up, so he does not have to fire Weissman"

Let's get to the bottom of this!

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Gold & Silver shares have slid .

But now we are seeing Lows unconfirmed by RSI (Needed for a Low)

GDX   ... 5-yrs :

GDXJ ... 5-yrs :

SIL -- ... 5-yrs :

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Philippines Property : with guru, Carl Dy

WILL THE REAL ESTATE MARKET CRASH?

Mr Dy Smiles a lot, says little. Mainly: "Just go to Property"
+ Property ALWAYS goes up. (No, it doesn't! counter: Detroit, Binondo?)
+ High risk areas (volcanos?) discourage developers
+ Subic could be a good growth area, "with US developer harbor"
+ "You cannot tell which area will go faster... just take note of features"
+ Nuvali "should have enough roads"
+ Stories about success of BGC from 2003 when Ayala took over
+ 10% Yield - is a "big number" compared to 1-3% in the bank
+ Arca South: "we need the skyway to connect... 2 years time"

(this type of chatter, I do not find very useful - better to monitor interest rates abnd Propert stock prices to try to divine the direction.)

SMPH-etc vs Rates, inverted ... update : MEG+ :

The drop since P2 came as the PH govt announced 6.4% inflation

These “Gradual” Rate Hikes Start to Add Up: US Treasury Yields up to Three Years Hit 10-Year Highs

An entire generation working on Wall Street has never seen Treasury yields this high.

The one-month treasury yield rose to 2.0% yesterday at the close and is at about the same level today, the highest since June 10, 2008. It is starting to price in a rate-hike at the Fed’s September 25-26 meeting. This rate hike, the Fed’s third this year, would bring its target to a range between 2.0% and 2.25%.

The three-month yield, currently at 2.14%, has reached the highest level since February 26, 2008. Back then, as the Financial Crisis was taking its toll, yields were going through enormous volatility, as the chart below shows. During that volatile period in mid-2008, the three-month yield spiked for a day to 2.07% on June 16, but never got back to the 2.14% in February that year:

It hasn’t been exactly a whirlwind rate-hike cycle with one-percentage-point rate hikes per meeting, à la Paul Volcker in the early 1980s, but in their “gradual” – as the Fed never tires to point out – easy-to-digest, no-surprises manner, the rate hikes are starting to add up. There is an entire generation working in the finance industry and on Wall Street who has never seen Treasury yields this high. They’re in for a learning experience.

The yield curve has been on “inversion” watch since last year, where long-term yields would be lower than short-term yields – a phenomenon that in the past has been followed by a recession or worse. In recent days, the yield curve has steepened a tiny bit, and everyone is expelling an equally tiny sigh of relief. In that spirit, the spread between the two-year yield and the 10-year yield widened to 24 basis points, a smidgen off the 18-basis-point spread on August 27, a low not seen since before the Financial Crisis:

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SUPER? Or just Rich (in expensive property) ?
Hong Kong Passes New York as Home to Most Ultra-Rich...

New York has lost its crown as home to the most ultra-rich people, beaten out by the rising tide of extreme wealth in Asia.

Hong Kong surpassed the Big Apple as the city with the highest population of people worth at least $30 million, according to a new report. The former British colony saw its number of ultra-wealthy increase 31 percent last year, to about 10,000, research firm Wealth-X found, higher than the nearly 9,000-strong population of the U.S.’s largest city. Tokyo came third, while Paris beat out London to take the European crown as Brexit weighed down the U.K. capital.

The number of ultra-rich worldwide rose 13 percent last year, according to Wealth-X, totaling about 256,000 people with combined assets of $31.5 trillion. Asia saw the fastest growth, driven by mainland China and Hong Kong, the study’s authors wrote. Reflecting the region’s rise, its share of the global population of people with at least $30 million rose to just over one-fourth, up from around 18 percent a decade ago.

More from Bloomberg.com: Kaepernick Campaign Created $43 Million in Buzz for Nike

“Asia-Pacific is forecast to close the ultra-wealth gap with other regions over the next five years, but is expected to remain behind Europe, the Middle East and Africa in absolute terms,” the report’s authors wrote. The number of ultra-wealthy in Asia-Pacific is expected to rise at a compound rate of 8.3 percent a year, they said.

Women accounted for about 35,000 of the ultra-rich last year, a record-high share of nearly 14 percent, the study found.

While Hong Kong topped the city rankings, nowhere in mainland China made the top 10, despite the country being third in the list of nations. That’s because China’s wealthy are widely dispersed, illustrated by the fact it was home to 26 of the 30 fastest-growing cities for the ultra-rich.

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Global Resource Insights: Gold Is Rarely This Cheap

By Kenton Ralph Toews 

The chart below has been making its rounds as of late. It is a ratio of the S&P GSCI Total Return Index, a basket of commodities, to the S&P 500. It paints a very interesting picture of where commodity prices are in relation to general equities. Relative to general equities, commodities are the cheapest they have been in almost 50 years.

GSCI Total Return/S&P 500,  Source: Bloomberg Monthly Last Price, Kenton Ralph Toews, Date: March 30, 2018.

TOTAL RETURN VS. PRICE RETURN

Notice the GSCI is a total return index and the S&P 500 is a price return index. Hence, the chart above compares a total return index with a price return index. A total return index accounts for the effects of compounding by including the reinvestment of cash distributions and dividends. By contrast, a price return index does not take into account cash distributions and dividends and, therefore, ignores the effects of compounding.

For these reasons, over time, a total return index will outperform its corresponding price return index.

TAKING ANOTHER LOOK: GSCI VS S&P 500

For consistency, when comparing two indexes we should consider either the total return or the price return of both. The popularity of the S&P 500 price return index suggests a good starting place.

GSCI Total Return ratio compared to GSCI Price Return ratio, Source: Bloomberg Monthly Last Price, Kenton Ralph Toews, Date: March 30, 2018.

The price return comparison of the GSCI and S&P 500 paints a much different picture than the original, widely publicized, chart. This chart suggests that commodities, relative to general equities, are even cheaper than reported. Furthermore, the commodity bull market of the 2000s barely registers a blip on this chart — it was nothing compared to the commodities bull market of the 1970s.

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WHAT ABOUT GOLD? 

How cheap is gold relative to general equities right now?

Gold/S&P 500, Source: Bloomberg Monthly Last Price, Kenton Ralph Toews, Date: March 30, 2018.

Right now, the Gold/S&P 500 ratio is approximately 0.5, which means one ounce of gold will buy half a unit of the S&P 500.

Seventy-seven percent of the time, the Gold/S&P 500 ratio is above 0.5. Fifty percent of the time, the ratio is above 1.0. Over the last 90 years, the average Gold/S&P 500 ratio is 1.4.

To keep the math simple and to be conservative let us assume mean regression will take that ratio to 1.0 at some point.

As I write, gold is approximately $1,335 a troy ounce and the S&P 500 is around 2,685 To achieve a Gold/S&P 500 ratio of 1.0 at the current S&P 500 level, the gold price would have to double to $2,670. On the other hand, if gold stays constant at $1,335, the ratio implies an S&P 500 at half its current level.

Ultimately, it does not matter whether the S&P 500 goes up or down. If history is a guide, and the ratio trends upward, gold will outperform general equities from a relative point of view.

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WM / Wallbridge

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Silver Is Cheap - Is It Time To Buy?

Sep. 6, 2018 / 15 comments

Don Durrett

Excellent risk/reward opportunity.

The gold bull market could resume soon.

Twice the leverage as gold.

Bullion banks are long silver for first time in 24 years.

Silver is cheap. In fact, it has been sub $16 since late June and is currently below $15. It is so cheap, that bullion banks are long silver for the first time in 24 years! Follow this link for confirmation.

Currently silver it is trading at $14.06 (see chart below), which is 85x less than gold ($1200/$14). That ratio is reaching record levels. The historical ratio was about 17 when silver was used as money. If silver is ever treated as money again, then this ratio will drop dramatically.

I expect the current ratio of 85 to drop by at least half. In fact, in 2011, that is exactly what happened. When gold rocketed to $1935, silver peaked at $49. That is a ratio of about 39. For this reason, I think silver has about twice the potential return of gold when a breakout occurs.

> More: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4204546-silver-cheap-time-buy

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Is Rob McEwen Right About The Precious Metals Market?

Sep. 5, 2018  / 29 comments

There are at least three facts supporting a bullish thesis on gold: the COT data, the Chinese demand for gold and the gold/silver ratio.

There are also at least two facts supporting a bearish thesis: bull markets in the US dollar and US stocks.

A few days ago Rob McEwen, a legendary precious metals investor, presented a thesis that the precious metals market may be ahead of another bull cycle.

In this article, I am taking a closer look at his thesis.

...there are always diehard optimists as, for example, Rob McEwen of McEwen Mining (MUX). A few days ago Mr. McEwen made the following comment:

“During the past two months, gold equities have been performing better than bullion. In the past, rallies in the gold equities have been an early signal of an improving gold market. When I look at how well the gold equities have held up relative to the drop in the gold price, I’d say that’s a very positive sign. Also, there’s a seasonality factor to consider. We are entering the fall, which often has been good period for gold and silver.

I’m optimistic about the price right now. It is a good time to be buying. Investors’ sentiment is extremely bearish for gold. So, if you are brave enough to act as a contrarian, it’s time to buy this sector!”

I guess the first statement is incorrect – since June 27, 2018, one of the most popular gold mining ETFs (GDX) has gone down 14.9% while gold lost 3.9% so, definitely, gold stocks performed much worse than bullion.

>https://seekingalpha.com/article/4204138-rob-mcewen-right-precious-metals-market

==

McEwen Mining (MUX) Investor Presentation - Slideshow

SA Transcripts•Yesterday, 1:33 PM

McEwen Mining says exploration results from projects 'highly encouraging'

SA News•Yesterday, 11:22 AM•4 Comments

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Opposite extremes - from here, we may see Stocks fall, as Gold rebounds

I replaced the chart in the Original Post with This

SPX-to-Gold