DrBubb's Diary - Mar. 2019 Trading - v.122

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 120th Month = 10 full years!

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Queen Live at LIVE AID Side By Side with Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

 

 

Oscar winning performance

================

DrBubb's Diary - Mar. 2019 Trading - v.122

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE :

Oil or Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
01: 270.06 +0.13 74.9M: 16.14 : 22.57 - 0.12 : 124.50 - 0.25 12.2M: 1322.1 $55.26 : $95.62 +0.06 : 120.96 - 1.01/ 00, 000: 
04: 271.96 +1.90 52.6M: 15.73 : 22.49 - 0.08 : 123.96 - 0.54 7.72M: 1319.3 $54.56 : $95.84 +0.22 : 120.42 - 0.54/ 00, 011: 024, 024
05: 273.10 +1.14 67.2M: 15.57 : 22.61 +0.12 : 124.28 +0.32 6.26M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.07 +0.23 : 120.97 +0.55/ 05, 016: 023, 047
06: 272.74 - 0.36 00.0M: 15.38 : 22.33 - 0.28 : 123.44 - 0.78 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.57 +0.50 : 121.03 +0.06/
07: 270.14 - 2.60 88.5M: 16.37 : 22.03 - 0.19 : 123.74 +0.30 5.65M: 1314.2 $52.64 : $96.59 +0.02 : 121.83 +0.80/
08: 270.47 +0.33 67.3M: 15.72 : 22.34 +0.31 : 124.74 +0.47 4.21M: 1318.5 $52.72 : $96.34 -0.25 : 122.35 +0.52/ 00, 037: 000, 177
11: 270.62 +0.15 00.0M: 15.97 : 22.08 -0.26 : 123.60 -1.24 0.00M: 1311.9 $52.41 : $97.10 +0.76 : 121.87 - 0.48/ 05, 42: 050, 227
12: 274.10 +3.48 64.2M: 15.43 : 22.05 -0.03 : 123.86 +0.26 4.23M: 1314.0 $53.10 : $96.70 -0.40 : 121.56 - 0.31/ 07, 49 : 050, 277
13: 274.99 +0.89 59.2M: 15.65 : 21.92 -0.13 : 123.37 -0.49 7.48M: 1313.1 $53.90 : $97.14 +0.44 : 121.10 - 0.46/ 05, 54 : 057, 334
14: 274.38 - 0.61 78.2M: 16.22 : 22.14 +0.22: 124.06 +0.69 6.24M: 1313.9 $54.41 : $97.07 -0.07 : 121.79 +0.69/ 06, 60 : 074, 407
15: 277.37 + 2.99 97.1M: 14.91 : 22.43 +0.29: 124.80 +0.74 10.9M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.92 -0.15 : 121.98 +0.19/-0.15 : 121.98 +0.19/
18: Holiday
19: 277.85 +0.48 59.1M: 14.88 : 23.14 +0.71: 125.70 +0.90 15.6M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.52 - 0.40 : 122.29 +0.00/
20: 278.41 +0.66 00.0M: 14.02 : 23.36 +0.22: 126.48 +0.78 0.00M: 1347.9 $57.16 : $96.61 +0.09 : 121.94 +0.00/
21: 277.42 - 0.99 55.6M: 14.46 : 22.98 - 0.38: 125.05 - 1.43 8.53M: 1327.8 $56.96 : $96.60 - 0.01 : 120.85 - 1.09/
22: 279.90 +2.48 00.0M: 13.49 : 23.06 +0.08: 125.50 +0.45 0.00M: 1332.8 $57.25 : $96.48 - 0.12 : 121.57 +0.72/
25: 279.52 +0.38 62.9M: 14.85 : 22.77 - 0.29: 125.37 - 0.13 4.87M: 1329.5 $55.40 : $96.41 - 0.07 : 121.21 - 0.36/
26: 279.32 - 0.20 52.7M: 15.17 : 22.73 - 0.04: 125.38 +0.01 0.00M: 1328.5 $55.50 : $96.12 - 0.29 : 121.81 +0.60/
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
01: 280.42 +1.74 00.0M: 00.00 : 21.70 - 0.54: 121.88 - 2.11 0.00M: 1299.2 $55.80 : $96.45 +0.22 : 118.66 -1.36/
04: 279.40 - 1.02 00.0M: 14.74 : 21.85 +0.15: 121.56 - 0.32 0.00M: 1287.5 $56.59 : $96.75 +0.00 : 119.59 +0.00/
05: 279.02 - 0.38 51.5M: 14.95 : 21.97 + 0.12: 121.72 +0.16 6.57M: 1284.7 $56.56 : $96.89 + 0.14 : 119.84 +0.25/ 00, 034, 000, 165
06: 277.33 +0.00 75.1M: 15.74 : 21.52 +0.00: 121.61 +0.00 4.82M:
07: 275.01 - 2.32 00.0M: 16.59 : 21.79 +0.27: 121.51 -0.10 00.0M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.12 +0.00 : 121.06 +0.00/
08: 274.46 - 0.55 78.2M: 16.05 : 22.37 +0.58: 122.84 +1.33 10.2M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.36 +0.24 : 121.57 +0.51/
11: 278.44 +3.98 65.1M: 14.33 : 22.29 - 0.08: 122.34 - 0.50 6.71M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.22 - 0.08 : 121.21 - 0.36/
12: 279.49 +1.05 79.7M: 13.77 : 22.68 +0.39: 122.98 +0.64 6.29M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.94 -0.28 : 122.06 +0.75/
13: 281.34 +1.85 80.6M: 13.41 : 22.86 +0.18: 123.84 +0.86 7.38M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.48 - 0.46 : 121.83 - 0.23/
14: 279.92 +0.00 00.0M: 13.50 : 22.25 - 0.61: 122.41 +0.00 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.72 +0.24 : 120.95 - 0.88/
15: 281.31 +1.39 72.7M: 12.88 : 22.30 +0.05: 122.97 +0.56 9.04M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.49 -0.23 : 121.75 +0.80/
18: 282.33 +1.02 62.2M: 13.10 : 22.05 - 0.25: 123.04 +0.07 7.78M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.52 +0.03 : 121.68 - 0.07/
19: 282.40 +0.07 90.3M: 13.56 : 22.13 +0.08: 123.38 +0.34 6.56M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.38 +0.00 : 121.41 - 0.27/
20: 281.55 - 0.85 00.0M: 13.91 : 22.63 +0.50: 124.18 +0.80 0.00M: 1301.7 $60.23 : $95.87 - 0.53 : 122.68 +1.27/
21: 284.73 +3.18 73.7M: 13.63 : 22.75 +0.12: 123.68 - 0.50 7.69M: 1307.3 $59.98 : $96.30 +0.43 : 122.95 +0.27/
22: 279.25 -5.48 113.M: 16.48 : 22.78 +0.03: 123.97 +0.29 5.84M: 1312.3 $59.04 : $96.55 +0.25 : 124.86 +1.91/
25: 279.04 -0.21 77.6M: 16.10 : 23.26 +0.48: 124.92 +0.95 7.25M: 1322.6 $58.82 : $96.55 +0.00 : 125.06 +0.20/ 00: 69, 000: 537
26: 281.12 +2.08 00.0M: 14.68 : 23.35 +0.09: 124.30 -0.62 0.00M: 1316.0 $59.94 : $96.95 +0.40 : 124.97 -0.09/ 06: 75, 050: 587
27: 279.65 - 1.47 67.6M: 15.15 : 23.01 - 0.34: 123.65 -0.65 6.52M: 1310.4 $59.41 : $96.92 -0.03 : 126.12 +1.15/ 06: 81, 057: 644
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
01: 285.83 +3.35 65.1M: 13.40 : 21.96 - 0.46: 121.53 - 0.48 11.9M: 1294.2 $61.59 : $97.34 +0.13 : 124.37 -1.79/
02: 285.97 +0.14 37.8M: 13.36 : 22.10 +0.14: 121.98 +0.45 3.92M: 1295.4 $65.54 : $97.29 -0.05 : 124.60 +0.23/
03: 286.42 +0.45 00.0M: 13.74 : 22.07 - 0.03: 121.80 - 0.18 0.00M: 1295.3 $62.46 : $97.10 - 0.19 : 123.52 -1.08/
04: 287.18 +0.76 45.5M: 13.58 : 22.50 +0.43: 122.11 +0.31 7.40M: 1294.3 $62.10 : $97.30 +0.20 : 123.87 +0.35/

 

 

[drbubb]

Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides

  : :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : DXY: $96.17, EUR: $1.147, GBP: $1.275, CAD: $0.737, AUD: $0.704, PHP: 52.50 (FYE'18)

GDXJ - vs UDN, SLV, OIH ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :

FXFX : 2017-19.Q1 :

Group #1 : update : JNUG ($9.21), UGLD ($95.41), GDXJ ($30.22)

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($2.82), CCO.t ($15.48), MUX.t ($2.50)

OIH ($14.03) vs. Drillers: RDC ($8.39), MDR ($6.54), ESV ($3.56) .10d / - also poised?

==

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

===

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update :



Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d :

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 9/07/2018

[drbubb]

We  have already seen Gold's cyclical Low. How important is it?

GDXJ etc ... update :



Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17 

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart : Last, PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

[drbubb]

Financials, FALLING out of a Triangle... Maybe?

XLF / Financials etf ... update w/IWM: 3mo t/ 10d iwm w/ - $26.52

3mo

==

[drbubb]

Gold may soon test the Bottom of the UPCHANNEL

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities ... update : Last $123.13 - 0.59

[drbubb]

Silver & Silver shares are still in an uptrend

Silver: SIL vs. SLV ... update : w/GDXJ :

OLD

NEW

GLD / Gold has gottenm way ahead of the EUR .. update :

SOOO Much Symmetry ! - Gold in EUR might have finished an important Rally at Eur 1190

 

 

[drbubb]

Front Man Battle w/ Queen + Adam Lambert

The guy who WON the Oscar (best actor)

Rami Malek shares Bohemian Rhapsody Funny Moments

The late night hosts should stick to pumping up interest in films... and avoid politics

[hector]

3 hours ago, drbubb said:

Silver & Silver shares are still in an uptrend

Silver: SIL vs. SLV ... update : w/GDXJ :

OLD

NEW

GLD / Gold has gottenm way ahead of the EUR .. update :

SOOO Much Symmetry ! - Gold in EUR might have finished an important Rally at Eur 1190

 

 

Looks like I was right about silver topping. Unfortunately it's dragging gold down along with it, although the gold to silver ratio is improving.

[hector]

It's all kicking off - now GCM crashes 15%.

[drbubb]

That gap up on Gold shares and GCM killed the momentum

[drbubb]

WTF?  Why?

This news KILLED the stock: -18%!!.

Why raise equity? (This unexpected move kills confidence)

GCM.t ... update : Last: $3.57 -0.83 -18.85%

Gran Colombia Gold Files Preliminary Short Form Prospectus for Equity Offering

GlobeNewswire 8 hours ago

[hector]

Yeah I saw that news. But look at that high volume day. Surely not the end of the rise if we're patient.

I guess that if it has topped, it would be wise to sell some if it recovers to 4.3 ish.

[drbubb]

I will wait and see how the placement goes.

PDAC is coming next week, so it will be a good time for GCM to "show its wares",

explain the drill results, and reveal its plans more fully.

Probably they rushed this announcement out, because their investment bankers told them, there were some critical meetings set up

[jerpy]

On 3/1/2019 at 12:37 PM, drbubb said:

Front Man Battle w/ Queen + Adam Lambert

The guy who WON the Oscar (best actor)

Rami Malek shares Bohemian Rhapsody Funny Moments

The late night hosts should stick to pumping up interest in films... and avoid politics

Nobody will ever replace Freddie but the film bought back fond memories.

Watched live aid on a Greek island but saw Freddie and Queen at Knebworth, they were even better there in a full set; probably the greatest performance ever. He was an outstanding showman in an outstanding, ground breaking band. Nothing will beat the feeling of seeing them live in terms of entertainment.

could only find this but I was young yet managed to get in probably the first 30,000 of the crowd. Never known such a feeling as when the hairs stood up on my back when they played Radio Ga Ga, a sea of hands, everyone living the moment, it was incredible.

[drbubb]

Surely, he had the most amazing connection with the audience.

And perfected the anthem song

[drbubb]

Gold Royalty Co's / RZZ-1 : vs. US Roy'l Co's (rgld, wpm, fnv.t) ... update : 5yr-wGDXJ / 1yr : 10d :

[drbubb]

I do hope he proves accurate:

Gold’s Ready to Rip Higher – Here’s How to Capitalize

By Justin Spittler, editor, Casey Daily Dispatch This past week in the Dispatch, we turned to E.B. Tucker – editor of our brand-new letter Strategic Trader – to hear about the top sectors to bet on today. E.B. showed us why gold and gold stocks are primed for a big rally in the coming months... and the smart way to manage your portfolio in 2019. On Thursday and Friday, E.B. and legendary speculator Doug Casey explained why the idea of man-made climate change is a giant hoax... and why all of the hysteria is actually a big threat... E.B. Tucker on How to Take Advantage of the Coming Gold Boom, Part 1 “I believe we’ll see gold surpass its all-time high of $1,895 at some point in this cycle. It’s definitely in the cards.”

[drbubb]

SILVER Shares - still very cheap relative to Oil shares

More Lines - Will seem more meaningful if it Rallies from here

[drbubb]

MONTHLY Data - BOUNCE@

TURNING Up (like Sh.Composite), or Rolling Down, like SLV might be

Three Different Prices ... update : 10d :

Cycles - between Silver & Shanghai stocks

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  06/29 :  09/28 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 121.51 : 124.50 : 121.88 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 249.92 : 270.06 : 280.42 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2506.8 : 2706.5 : 2803.7 :
S/AU: 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 195.6% : 204.7%: 215.8%:
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $45.41 : $55.26 : $55.80 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $57.35: $64.89 : $66.48:
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27 : $25.19 : $14.03: $17.22 : $17.42:
OI/X :  44.3% : 36.1% : ====== : 35.41% : 34.59%: 33.25% :  24.46%: 26.54%: 26.20%:
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $2.940 : $2.734 : $2.859 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.630 : $2.773 : $2.932 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : --------------------------------------> 845.50 : 895.00 : 917.75 : 911.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 503.25 : 524.25 : 457.28 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 375.00 : 378.25 : 373.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 169.80 : 180.55 : 181.50 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06% :  $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $16.91: $16.93 : $16.45:
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.96% : R9.38%: r9.06% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.391 : R3.833 : r4.041 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.16 : $95.62 : $96.45 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 121.51 : 120.96 : 188.66 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : R1.569 : r1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.61E : R1.617 : R1.681 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 795.8E: 817.40 : 772.46 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 :$19.53 : $21.10 : $21.38 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $21.09 : $22.57 : $21.70 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 :$30.22 : $32.84 : $31.44 :
SIL--: $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $25.02 : $26.88 : $26.01 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.723 : R1.802 : r1.832 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $14.52 : $14.92 : $14.20 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 15.540: 15.930 : 15.260 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.33 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77: $25.99 : $27.35 : $26.74 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92: $39.06 : $42.76 : $42.49 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2494.0 : 2618.2 : 2994.0 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7476.0 : 8121.9 : 7641.8 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $23.82 : $26.05 : $26.69 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 133.90 : 149.18 : 158.24 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 18.16%: 16.24%: 16.36%: 17.79%: 17.46%: 16.87% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $3,770 : $3,435 : $3,818 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :  09/28 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 :

[hector]

If gold will complete the symmetrical pattern, it should go back down to 1185 support before a strong reversal to break 1360. All within the next 4 months. So crazy.