Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 New gold bugs making gold investments mainstream Tudor, Paulson, Greenlight, Hayman bring precious metal in from the fringe SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold has long been favored by a fringe of the investment world, but this year some of the world's leading hedge-fund managers have loaded up on the precious metal amid concern government efforts to avoid another Great Depression that could undermine major currencies and fuel rampant inflation. "I have never been a gold bug," Paul Tudor Jones, chairman of hedge-fund giant Tudor Investment Corp., wrote in an Oct. 15 letter to investors. "It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time." Tudor has been building positions in gold and other precious metals in recent months and they now represent the firm's largest commodities exposure, he noted. John Paulson's Paulson & Co., one of the world's largest hedge fund firms that made billions betting against subprime mortgages, is launching a new gold fund Jan. 1 and became the largest holder of the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (GLD 112.94, +0.64, +0.57%) this year. Greenlight Capital, run by David Einhorn, reversed a long-time aversion to gold, while Kyle Bass's Hayman Advisors LP held more than 15% of its portfolio in gold and other precious metals earlier this year. Eton Park Capital, headed by former Goldman Sachs (GS 170.01, -2.82, -1.63%) trader Eric Mindich, has also got in on the act. "I can't remember in 20 years so many respected investors focused on a single strategy," said Bradley Alford of Alpha Capital Management, which invests in hedge funds. "Some of these people are icons of the industry with at least 15-year track records. It's a losing proposition to bet against guys like that. They aren't billionaires because they make bad bets." It's not only hedge funds. Managers of mutual funds and insurance company portfolios are often limited in how much gold they can buy, but these investors have been purchasing the metal for their personal accounts, according to Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. "A surprising number of level-headed folks, who I have known over the years, are confessing to me that they've become gold bugs," he said. "They're starting to give more respect to what was for a long time considered the lunatic fringe." More..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vedantafxtrader Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 It's not his gold. lol, yeah I know...When I read that again I thought someone might assume that...I just mean it is a large quantity and he must make something from every transaction, so it would soon add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Gold worry mounting, but some bulls charging on Commentary: Some gold bugs aren't worried about the metal's rapid bid-up NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold's surge has made some observers nervous, but not all. Gold was up every day last week. Spot gold finished at $1150.90, up for the third week in a row. Mark Hulbert is worried about the 68% reading on his Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by The Hulbert Financial Digest. It came in unchanged at 68% on Friday evening, for the ninth day running. ( See Mark Hulbert's Nov. 20 column.) And long-time gold bug Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell cautioned: "I'd hold off on buying more gold now. The reason I say that is the point & figure chart. ... Gold is rather 'stretched' at this point. ... If gold continues higher, that's fine with me, but I'd hesitate to buy it now. Gold is overbought, it's on a 'high pole,' and it appears overdue for a correction." Russell, of course, never trades gold -- he is either buying or not buying. But the chart-oriented Aden Forecast is not flinching. ( See Oct. 8 column.) Updating on Thursday, editors Mary Anne and Pamela Aden pointed to a "C rise" -- an intermediate, recurring rise -- on the chart. The Adens said: "Gold is soaring, hitting new record highs almost daily. This C rise is going strong. Our initial $1,200 target level for this year's rise has nearly been reached, but gold could go higher. ... Note that gold rose 56% and 58%, respectively, in the last two C rises. So far, gold has risen 32% in the current C rise. Plus, its leading indicator still has room to rise further before it reaches the 'too high' area. Since this rise is powerful, the gains this time around could be similar to those in 2006 and 2008. And if they are, gold could continue up to near the $1,350 level before this C rise is over." "We'll be watching closely, but for now, hold on to all of your metals-related investments," they said. Lately, of course, there has been a good deal of news about otherwise normal U.S. hedge-fund managers getting into gold, notably Wednesday's announcement of a Paulson & Co. gold fund. See full story on Paulson's gold-fund plan. Some long-time observers of gold think they already see signs of a new force in the market. As Le Metropole Café's Bill Murphy put it on Friday in his characteristically conspiratorial way: "The Gold Cartel's traders don't realize, or don't know how to handle, the 'new buyers.' In days of old, they would suck in the spec longs, getting shorter and shorter as the price went higher and higher. Then they would pull the plug by dumping physical gold into the market and bombing the derivatives paper market. Eventually fund longs would sell as the technicals turned bearish. The market would cascade down with a number of funds eventually going short. The Gold Cartel would cover and up we would go again." "This time the buyers are the biggest of money ... countries, largest hedge funds, etc. They are competing against each other and want to buy more gold on any dips the Gold Cartel hands to them. It shows in the price action." Le Metropole Café's trademark monitoring of gold's main physical markets has yet to find evidence those buyers have pulled out. (See Web site.) A Sunday posting on the site concludes: "Given the time of the year, the Aden sisters may well be right." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Don't fall victim to FUD... http://www.rickackerman.com/2009/11/golds-...flank-its-foes/ Quote In the Rick’s Picks chat room, where the focus is sometimes obsessively on gold, the meaning of “long-term” can range anywhere from 90 minutes to about three hours. Small wonder, then, that whenever Comex precious-metal futures hit an air pocket and briefly plunge, the shock waves wash over the room like a tsunami. In fact, these fleeting episodes mean nothing, considering that the larger, bullish environment for gold contains more testosterone than a Chicago stockyard. Who needs to worry about what those nasty, retrograde bullion bankers, commercial traders and by-now impotent central banks are doing when you know for certain that the likes of China and India are size buyers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 This is what I think will happen today, take down then off the chart buying maybe to around $1200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Gold to hit $1650 by late 2010, early 2011, but estimate could be low - Jim Sinclair As a contra to the dollar the outlook for the yellow metal remains strong Author: Geoff Candy Posted: Monday , 23 Nov 2009 The poor outlook for the dollar continues to provide good prospects for the price of gold. According to Jim Sinclair, chairman at Tanzanian Royalty Exploration, the price of the yellow metal could reach as high as $1650 by the end of 2010 and moving into the beginning of 2011. But, the man admits that, given recent happenings, this could be a bit of a low estimate. "My thesis is that gold is a contra to the US dollar and recent statements out of the Federal Reserve that interest rates will remain extremely low until 2012 is really a go ahead single for gold to continue to perform as it has until at least 2012. Speaking to Mineweb Radio, Sinclair explained his reasoning: "If you look at the way US foreign debt is just about touching $3 trillion and our economy is not responding as China has, we have very serious systemic problems that have resulted in high levels of unemployment and I can't buy on to a new normal economic recovery devoid of hiring people." He adds that the US is now beginning to apply fiscal stimulus, which has "a habit of sucking inflation out of monetary expansion". "I do think we are going to see the currency influenced inflation event that is hard for people to understand given the in a difficult conditions in the job market and with the only booming business being Wall street." Given his view of gold's relationship to the dollar, Sinclair was asked about the dollar's continued status as the reserve currency. "We can clearly see the dollar is no longer the universal reserve currency it was back in 2000; currency values come from momentum so you don't need heavy selling of a currency for it to decline you just need less buying. " I would think that the dollar will always be around at whatever value the market makes for it and it will always be part of reserves but it won't be the universal reserve currency. You have a super sovereign currency unit, which is really like the dollar index that will be part and parcel of the IMF which I believe is becoming the central bank." He adds that, national strength and influence socially and politically has always followed the strength of currencies and it is very clear Wall Street is no longer the financial centre of the world, Asia is rising very sharply and nations that can produce gold at reasonable prices will find out that they are actually mining money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 This is what I think will happen today, take down then off the chart buying maybe to around $1200. Yep, I'm expecting that pattern at least one day this week as well. A climb to $1300+ is looking "all systems go" at the moment. Very frustratingly, I've just got major (well, major for me) new £ funds into GM today - wish they had been cleared a week or two ago. Past experience tells me not to buy into strength, but I'm not sure of a pullback at the moment, and light volume at thanksgiving holiday may push things up rather than down. I will be watching my Kitco KCast toolbar like a hawk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Yep, I'm expecting that pattern at least one day this week as well. A climb to $1300+ is looking "all systems go" at the moment. Very frustratingly, I've just got major (well, major for me) new £ funds into GM today - wish they had been cleared a week or two ago. Past experience tells me not to buy into strength, but I'm not sure of a pullback at the moment, and light volume at thanksgiving holiday may push things up rather than down. I will be watching my Kitco KCast toolbar like a hawk! I expect, FWIW, that the pullback will happen today as it is options expiry day, they are going to throw whatever they can at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kellyhayes Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 The thin markets at the end of next week due to the Thanksgiving holidays. The Cartel may use a thinner market to push the price down or just as likely the chinese may push the price up. I expect a wild week what with option expires and the holidays. regards, kelly _______________ Simulation pret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Yep, I'm expecting that pattern at least one day this week as well. A climb to $1300+ is looking "all systems go" at the moment. Very frustratingly, I've just got major (well, major for me) new £ funds into GM today - wish they had been cleared a week or two ago. Past experience tells me not to buy into strength, but I'm not sure of a pullback at the moment, and light volume at thanksgiving holiday may push things up rather than down. I will be watching my Kitco KCast toolbar like a hawk! The other thing is, since you are buying in ££ like me, is that a take-down in US$ price may not correlate precisely to a bargain price in ££. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Looks like maybe the cartel aren't going to rescue the shorts this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Looks like maybe the cartel aren't going to rescue the shorts this time. So what happens now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Up to 1160.80. This is going to be exciting. Can they take it down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 So what happens now ? The shorts will be forced to cover in a rising market today, which should mean some spikes up as they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Up to 1160.80. This is going to be exciting. Can they take it down? $1170 just now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 The thin markets at the end of next week due to the Thanksgiving holidays. The Cartel may use a thinner market to push the price down or just as likely the chinese may push the price up. I expect a wild week what with option expires and the holidays. That would be a nice buying opportunity. Anyway, welcome to GEI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkeegan123 Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 $1170 just now... And to think, I hesitated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Black Swan Capital - Currency Currents [PDF] Monday 23rd November 2009 John Ross wrote in a recent Currency Currents he didn’t want to rip-off the Milk Board advertising campaign by asking if you’ve “Got Gold.” But it appears more and more have “Got Gold.” Yet another new high was chalked up this morning in white-hot yellow metal. This comes at a very bad time for me and may reflect a lot deeper systemic concerns than we now realize. Long-timer readers have heard the story of my father in law, whom I love dearly (most of the time). My father-in-law (MFL) has held gold and silver for a long-time, as long as I have been dating his best asset—that is going on 34-years now. MFL has been known to hide buckets of coins and said precious metals in his walls at times, which should give you an idea of just how much of a bug he is. MFL will be attending the Crooks Thanksgiving feast on Thursday, thus my problem now that gold has surged again into the ozone (as I remember many times I shared the view with MFL that gold would never get above $1,000 again). Thursday will be a day of Turkey, football games, and “I told you so” gold investing gloating—rightfully so I guess. But, I can take solace anyway, as he loves his daughter, and gold is doing good things for his estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Up to 1160.80. This is going to be exciting. Can they take it down? The Anglos are losing control of the gold market. Folk are realising more and more that wall street, and its "financial innovations", are just crooked scams to fleece them. They are demanding physical metals not more "innovations". Financial innovations is a term coined by wall streets propaganda station CNBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Options expiry tomorrow - shorts will be toasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCSucks Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 $20 move is hardly a toasting is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schaublin Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Pluto, 1. Do you think we are seeing an Oriental strategy at work here - to break the shorts? 2. If a lot of short positions have to be covered tomorrow, what effect on price when they have to buy back in? 1200? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 we should remember how painful getting burnt because of your shorts is... EDIT They still have time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 $20 move is hardly a toasting is it? It is a toasting considering they have been in the toaster since Aug 29th 2009. Turning nice and crispy black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schaublin Posted November 23, 2009 Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 Does anyone think that the price is being moved by cunning longs possibly from the East - or is it normal buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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