drbubb Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 We have entered the most favourable era for gold prices in our lifetime, and the share prices of the great mining companies will eventually outperform bullion prices...central banks are printing money and creating liquidity beyond the forecasts of all but the most paranoid goldbugs a year ago Don Coxe, Strategy Advisor BMO (Bank of Montreal) Financial Group Interesting. I rate Coxe, and so not see him as a Perma-bull on Gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 A warning to all gold investors – don’t fall in love By Dominic Frisby Mar 28, 2012 http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/gold/money-morning-warning-to-gold-investors-21300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Just what the doctor hoarded! Medic finds Civil War coins worth £51,000 buried in his garden... and hands them to a museum Dr Owen Johnson also found a gold ring bearing the inscription: 'When you see this, remember me' Treasure laws mean the 600-coin hoard belongs to the state Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2121610/Just-doctor-hoarded-Medic-finds-Civil-War-coins-worth-51-000-buried-garden--hands-museum.html#ixzz1qQvfi1eK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackPepper Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Interesting. I rate Coxe, and so not see him as a Perma-bull on Gold Recent data from down here regarding gold mines is production is down. Does that mean demand for gold is down or the availability is down? http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/256696/20111127/australian-q3-gold-production-66-tons-survey.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Recent data from down here regarding gold mines is production is down. Does that mean demand for gold is down or the availability is down? http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/256696/20111127/australian-q3-gold-production-66-tons-survey.htm Mines produce if they can. Most make very good money at current prices. They owe much thanks to Mr Ben Bernanke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 29, 2012 Report Share Posted March 29, 2012 Newmont CEO: China causing gold swings Newmont Mining CEO Richard O'Brien says that a struggling Chinese economy is causing short term volatility in gold prices. /Video: http://money.cnn.com/video/markets/2012/03/27/mkts-ss-newmont-ceo.cnnmoney/ He predicts Gold-$2000 by year end. The Newmont dividend is now directly linked to Gold prices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted March 29, 2012 Report Share Posted March 29, 2012 Very good report on the manipulation of the Gold price - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/paul-mylchreest-presents-various-visual-case-studies-gold-price-manipulation The need for such concerted and blatant manipulation of gold, the arch-nemesis of the current over-leveraged world monetary system, suggests that the integrity of the latter is not just fragile, but arguably fraudulent. Understating the situation, it’s high time to be more than a little “concerned”, if you aren’t already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 http://KerryLutz.com/peter-grandich-takes-on-the-gold-perma-bears-29-mar-2012/ Peter Grandich has a new contrarian indicator, The GNEMI-The Grandich Nasty Email Indicator. These days hes getting a lot of negative feedback about gold, silver, and junior mining prices. Bulls are starting to lose faith, but not Peter. Hes been in these markets for decades, and he knows that cycles always repeat themselves, no matter the market. Hes expecting selling pressure in the wake of next weeks religious holidays. Major holidays always lead to thinly traded markets, which inevitably lead to opportunities to manipulate prices. With all the unbacked paper floating around the metals markets these days, its a pretty safe bet. Click on link to read more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 Gary Wagner Thinks the Precious Metals Correction is Over .. 03-29-2012 Gary Wagner of TheGoldForecast.com believes the precious metals correction is probably over, and we'll see a quick run up for gold to around $1760 per ounce. The current weakness in metals prices is a good opportunity for long term and short term buyers to get in and capture profits. The markets are following very predictable patterns according to Garys interpretations of Elliott Wave Theory and Japanese Candlestick Formations. While the markets have been violent and no doubt manipulated, the patterns are nonetheless very clear. http://KerryLutz.com/gary-wagner-thinks-the-precious-metals-correction-is-over-03-29-2012/ Click on link to read more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 I don't want to jinx myself, but... I have not only been making bullish noises about Gold, I have been buying it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if I now control more Gold (thru GLD calls) than most of the so-called Gurus quoted here. I really hope this buy works out, and we all makes some good money from here. If not, we will all suffer together. As you all know, I am not a perma-bull. I really do try to respond to opportunity: Buying gold when it is cheap, selling some when it climbs, and holding a growing core position. === === I also see that Dominic Frisby is trying to distance himself from the most extreme of the Gold purists EXCERPT: he says: Look, for example, at how angry and aggressive those who are long gold can become when someone dismisses it. I'm thinking, in particular, about the slagging off Nouriel Roubini receives on Twitter when he baits gold bugs. (I knocked him myself in one article). Certain pro-gold websites have become almost cultish. (amen to that !) . . . So this Money Morning is a kind of note to self, a warning. I have come to, I suppose, love gold - or at least the idea of it, and the glorious, free society it offers at the end of the rainbow. But I shouldn't. It's just an investment. So be warned and take note: should we ever see that exponential final euphoric bull market phase, then come back and read this, sober up and sell. Having a thrown a wet blanket over you all, I should say that my big picture view for gold is that the end of this bull market is still not within sight. All the main drivers - monetary stress, deficit spending, debt, currency debasement, ballooning money supply, negative real rates and so on - are still in place. . . . (then he joins our little chorus saying a low may be in place) In the shorter term, I feel we are still in consolidation mode after the run up to $1,920 last August-September and remain of the mind that we won't see new highs before next autumn at the earliest, though I'll be glad to be wrong on that. And in the very short term, I think we put in a low last week around $1,625 and that we should see a nice run up to the $1,800 mark over the next few weeks. /source: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/gold/money-morning-warning-to-gold-investors-21300 I concur with that. But haven't yet any clear idea how far it might go. I shall have to stay alert for signs of when to lighten up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 I also see that Dominic Frisby is trying to distance himself from the most extreme of the Gold purists EXCERPT: he says: . . . So this Money Morning is a kind of note to self, a warning. I have come to, I suppose, love gold - or at least the idea of it, and the glorious, free society it offers at the end of the rainbow. But I shouldn't. It's just an investment. So be warned and take note: should we ever see that exponential final euphoric bull market phase, then come back and read this, sober up and sell. .... Well, I'm no purist/ gold bug, but looks like nothing much has been learnt in the past few years about gold. As long as gold is seen as an 'investment', people will remain confused about whether or not gold is in a 'bull market'. That confusion will also lead to a 'wall of worry' towards gold. There is a small glimmering clue about gold in Dominic's article where he mentions it rising consistently 20% odd year on year. The most coherent way to interpret this rise is in terms of appreciation. So instead of thinking of gold as an 'investment', think of it as the opposite; a form of liquidity/ a non-investment, which is steadily appreciating against assets/ investments. This view is also bolstered by the fact that liquidity strengthens in deflationary economies. Why can't people see the obvious? Because [conventional/ established] theory determines what we see.... and most people, being herdish, won't think for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 There is a small glimmering clue about gold in Dominic's article where he mentions it rising consistently 20% odd year on year. The most coherent way to interpret this rise is in terms of appreciation. So instead of thinking of gold as an 'investment', think of it as the opposite; a form of liquidity/ a non-investment, which is steadily appreciating against assets/ investments. This view is also bolstered by the fact that liquidity strengthens in deflationary economies. Why can't people see the obvious? Because [conventional/ established] theory determines what we see.... and most people, being herdish, won't think for themselves. If Gold was so consistent as that, then just wait for the 20% rise, and then look to sell it somewhere beyond that. Buy it back after the inevitable correction. That's something like what I do when I look at the channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 If Gold was so consistent as that, then just wait for the 20% rise, and then look to sell it somewhere beyond that. Buy it back after the inevitable correction. That's something like what I do when I look at the channel The 20% rise is in the aggregate/ trend. If you want to trade, you should look for the spike upwards which will often be greater than 20%. The spike to 1900 was an obvious example. Still, if you're also interested in building a core [buy and hold] besides trading it helps to have some understanding or explanation of why gold is trending upwards 20% year on year. Investors [or those with a liquidity preference... the non-investor] have a rational macro picture of why something appreciates or depreciates. It's good to see you finally getting a bit more vocal towards a buy and hold position/ building a core... though ironically after a purge of the 'buy and holders'. PS, You missed the point of the post. It wasn't about trading gold. It was about giving a rational explanation for the 'investor' as to why gold has risen at an average of 20% odd annually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 Embracing Buy & Hold ? It's good to see you finally getting a bit more vocal towards a buy and hold position/ building a core... though ironically after a purge of the 'buy and holders'. LOL That is EXACTLY when you want to be thinking Buy & Hold - when prices are cheap, not when they are spiking upwards. If you change your mind, and shrink the size if your core position, you can do it at a higher price. In fact, I tend to think of my B&H core as a fixed US$ amount, which rise in size as my total wealth rises. This way, when prices spike higher - I have room to sell... Especially when inflation remains tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 LOL That is EXACTLY when you want to be thinking Buy & Hold - when prices are cheap, not when they are spiking upwards. If you change your mind, and shrink the size if your core position, you can do it at a higher price. In fact, I tend to think of my B&H core as a fixed US$ amount, which rise in size as my total wealth rises. This way, when prices spike higher - I have room to sell... Especially when inflation remains tame. You still seem to be confusing B&H with trading. The B&H position is not about buying when prices are cheap and selling on a spike. That is trading. As mentioned the 'investor' can rationally rely on 20% appreciation year on year with B&H. The two activities should be clearly distinguished [Long Term B&H/ Short Term trading] in order for the one to hedge the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 You still seem to be confusing B&H with trading. The B&H position is not about buying when prices are cheap and selling on a spike. That is trading. As mentioned the 'investor' can rationally rely on 20% appreciation year on year with B&H. The two activities should be clearly distinguished [Long Term B&H/ Short Term trading] in order for the one to hedge the other. Nope. It is not confusing for me. Buy & Hold for me is when I buy something other than Options or Option spreads. I call it "Core holding" and it consists of shares like: PHYS, MNT.t, maybe GLD shares, and some physical Gold. I want to look at it as a SHARE OF MY OVERALL WEALTH - like 10-20% or something. If Gold prices spike up, and it rises to say, more than 20-40% (or something) of my wealth, then I would consider selling some, and buying something cheaper to replace it. That would be especially true when Inflation is not rising, and when you look at a measure like Gold-in-CRB, you see that the Ratio has shot up too fast, like it did last year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 Nope. It is not confusing for me. Buy & Hold for me is when I buy something other than Options or Option spreads. I call it "Core holding" and it consists of shares like: PHYS, MNT.t, maybe GLD shares, and some physical Gold. I want to look at it as a SHARE OF MY OVERALL WEALTH - like 10-20% or something. If Gold prices spike up, and it rises to say, more than 20-40% (or something) of my wealth, then I would consider selling some, and buying something cheaper to replace it. xx Can you see how your previous post is confusing. For example: If you change your mind, and shrink the size if your core position, you can do it at a higher price This is not what is normally meant by core buy and hold, which if anything one tries to increase. Agree? I think the confusion lies in your not thinking of your core gold in terms of liquidity, but rather in terms of investment. Hence you want to keep that investment at a certain percentage of your wealth. Someone who thinks of gold instead in terms of liquidity will 'sit on the sidelines' and watch asset prices depreciate relative to gold. They will not look to re-balance their 'portfolio' but stay with the trend as monetary value filters down into gold. Core gold [and note, gold not mining stocks etc] is also core in a monetary sense. That would be especially true when Inflation is not rising, and when you look at a measure like Gold-in-CRB, you see that the Ratio has shot up too fast, like it did last year: Inflation is irrelevant when gold is primarily seen in terms of liquidity, as opposed to a commodity, inflation hedge, or investment. It's this idea that yourself and Dominic have failed to grasp. It's on the basis of this idea that the investor can 'invest' a good portion in gold, sit back, and relatively relax. Because he's identified a long term trend. Nor is this complacency as the good investor always hedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 Can you see how your previous post is confusing. For example: This is not what is normally meant by core buy and hold, which if anything one tries to increase. Agree? I think the confusion lies in your not thinking of your core gold in terms of liquidity, but rather in terms of investment. Hence you want to keep that investment at a certain percentage of your wealth. Someone who thinks of gold instead in terms of liquidity will 'sit on the sidelines' and watch asset prices depreciate relative to gold. They will not look to re-balance their 'portfolio' but stay with the trend as monetary value filters down into gold. Core gold [and note, gold not stocks etc] is also core in a monetary sense. (note- sorry about changing some numbers above - I don't actually look at "shares of wealth" so precisely as my numbers imply.) Okay. Thanks. I do get your point. My "Core" concept requires a bit more dynamic management. But I think that my method of measurement will enhance performance over time, since you will wind up increasing and shrinking your Core holdings somewhat in response to opportunities that arise. Isn't that what Dominic is moving towards in his writings: "...Note to self, a warning: I have come to, I suppose, love gold - or at least the idea of it, and the glorious, free society it offers at the end of the rainbow. But I shouldn't. It's just an investment. So be warned and take note: should we ever see that exponential final euphoric bull market phase, then come back and read this, sober up and sell." Maybe: Sell some. As I am suggesting. Could be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 (Isn't that what Dominic is moving towards in his writings: "...Note to self, a warning: I have come to, I suppose, love gold - or at least the idea of it, and the glorious, free society it offers at the end of the rainbow. But I shouldn't. It's just an investment. So be warned and take note: should we ever see that exponential final euphoric bull market phase, then come back and read this, sober up and sell." Maybe: Sell some. As I am suggesting. Could be better No, my posts are directly contradicting what Dominic was saying, that gold is an 'investment'. Obviously you read other people's posts, but I do wonder if you consider the ideas put forward. Repeat: Gold is a form of liquidity not an investment. OK, you might disagree with that, but then that would be progress of sorts. At least then you'd show a grasp of the ideas and issues at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 Gold Is Manipulated (But That's Okay) Price suppression equals buying opportunity http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-martenson/gold-is-manipulated-but-that-is-okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price - World May Go Down in Flames Today multi-billionaire Hugo Salinas Price told King World News a complete catastrophe is unfolding in Europe. He also called Fed Chairman Bernanke a vampire and urged people to hold gold and silver because they will be the last things standing. But first, Salinas Price warned about the serious dangers we are facing: I think that unless we see legislation, somewhere, that is rational and recognizes that gold and silver are really different forms of money, and that this whole scheme of paper is unworkable, then the world is going to go down in flames. The only thing that would last will be peoples savings of gold and silver. Read more http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/30_Billionaire_Hugo_Salinas_Price_-_World_May_Go_Down_in_Flames.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price - World May Go Down in Flames http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/30_Billionaire_Hugo_Salinas_Price_-_World_May_Go_Down_in_Flames.html This to me is the most important thing he says “But what kind of a world that will be? I think it will be a very nasty world. In spite of having gold and silver, that may not be enough to save you. Their good things to have, but what we actually need to do is save our civilization and not go down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 Gold Is Manipulated (But That's Okay) Price suppression equals buying opportunity http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-martenson/gold-is-manipulated-but-that-is-okay Some interesting arguments in that article, and I LOVE these two charts (1) (2) - explained in the article, but BRIEFLY: The gold price is manipulated during a certain period during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted April 1, 2012 Report Share Posted April 1, 2012 nvestments: Chris Bailey, Close Conservative Portfolio Fund When the Government of Mali was replaced in a military coup shares in one of the country's biggest gold miners, Randgold Resources, plunged. Chris Bailey, manager of the Close Conservative Portfolio Fund, which has a sizeable stake in the FTSE 100 company, tells Robert Miller what he did next. Video at link http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financevideo/yourmoneytheirhands/9173313/Investments-Chris-Bailey-Close-Conservative-Portfolio-Fund.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted April 1, 2012 Report Share Posted April 1, 2012 Some interesting arguments in that article, and I LOVE these two charts - explained in the article, but BRIEFLY: The gold price is manipulated during a certain period during the day All i have to say, Dr. B is this: Jim’s MailboxAugust 17, 2009, at 12:34 pm by Jim Sinclair in the category Jim's Mailbox http://www.jsmineset.com/2009/08/17/jims-mailbox-207/ You could say so. Here is the bias in numbers in recent times: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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