Jump to content

The Copper thread: Peak or Pause ?


drbubb

Recommended Posts

The Copper thread: Peak or Pause ?

 

A strange way to look at it maybe, but here's

 

Copper Prices

003ni1.png

 

Copper-in-barrels of WTI oil

001nn6.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I did think copper had topped a few weeks back and should be starting a multi year bear market. But, looking more closely at the pattern since early 2006 i think there is a possibility it is tracing out a slightly less than perfect triangle (an a-b-c-d-e EW pattern, where the 5 waves overlap) with wave 'a' starting in spring 2006 and wave 'e' in effect now. If this is the case there should be a final push up to new highs.

 

If prices fall below the late 2008 lows then this pattern is off the table and the long term bear should be confirmed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

..should be a final push up to new highs.

If prices fall below the late 2008 lows then this pattern is off the table and the long term bear should be confirmed.

 

i dont disagree. sell the new highs if they come on light volume

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

It looks like we got our push to new highs, i think, but cant find a good enough chart to know for sure. Anyone got one? Dr B, any idea on volume?

 

So, if the lows of May/June are taken out then i reckon a multi year bear market will be on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
It looks like we got our push to new highs, i think, but cant find a good enough chart to know for sure. Anyone got one? Dr B, any idea on volume?

 

So, if the lows of May/June are taken out then i reckon a multi year bear market will be on.

 

I say copper is trending up - not ot mentino India and China will need so much more for infrastructures and HOUSING

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Frank Barbera thinks copper is headed for $2/pound over an extended period of months.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

 

In our view, there is a good chance that for most commodities, an important peak may have been seen, translating into at least a medium term plateau. This plateau is a reflection, more likely than not of the global economic contraction which is now taking place. In the case of the Base Metals, prices for items like Copper and Aluminum will likely soon follow the path already seen in the depressing metals line Nickel and Zinc. Industrial Metals, such as Steel and Iron Ore could also soon come under substantial selling pressure. Other formerly hot markets, such as the Coal market are also now leveling off. In the chart below, we show the price of nearby Copper which remains near all time highs but is sporting a very bearish divergence on MACD. From here, a decline back toward $2.00 Copper over a period of several months would be no surprise, as unlike Energy, base metals do not typically get a huge boost from a lower US Dollar.

I completely understand the sentiment to eye declines for industrial metals and commodities given the global economic activity outlook. In addition although I believe in a strong commodities bull for another 10 years or so there has to be significant pull backs along the way (at leaast 2 corrective waves) and I juut feel that the next 18 months or so may provide that opportunity. Am I misguided?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frank Barbera thinks copper is headed for $2/pound over an extended period of months.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

 

 

I completely understand the sentiment to eye declines for industrial metals and commodities given the global economic activity outlook. In addition although I believe in a strong commodities bull for another 10 years or so there has to be significant pull backs along the way (at leaast 2 corrective waves) and I juut feel that the next 18 months or so may provide that opportunity. Am I misguided?

 

Sounds about right to me, the only two commodities I can see where there's money to be made is PM's and oil ATM, not worth focusing on anything else unless I'm missing something. Perhaps copper and other commodities in general will rally once the US stock markets tank? Just thought, DrBubb was going to start a thread on rare earths, off to see if he did.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't imagine writing off Gold and Copper

 

Gold more so as a valuation and hedge against the inevitable wave of inflation. There's only so much the Treasury can to do reassure most citizens of their devaluing dollar... how can inflation be still under 3-4% when price of food has gone up 30% in the last year?

 

Copper wise, its uses are tremendous in building. If not US, the growing economy of China and India has easily more than enough demand to keep it above $4/lb for years to come

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...

A good video report here from the BBC about increasing copper trade between Chile and China.

 

 

Chile has in recent years seen a huge increase in its trade with China, mainly by exporting copper to the booming factories of Asia.

 

Brian Hanrahan visited an open-cast copper mine to examine the impact of the relationship between the two countries.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7786674.stm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...

China recovery will help copper.

 

May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Metal recyclers who shut down in China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, after global markets plunged last year, may reopen as prices rebound, said an industry official.

 

“Almost all” China’s metal recycling industry halted after October 2008 when copper prices tanked on concern global recession would erode demand, Zhai Xin, deputy secretary general at the recycled metal department of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said at a conference in Beijing today.

 

Copper in London has gained 53 percent this year as China almost doubled imports after a $585 billion stimulus package, state buying and a lack of scrap material lifted demand. China relies on imports for most its scrap needs, and shipments in the first quarter slumped from a year earlier as recession cut availability.

 

Scrap, used as a raw material for smelting, accounted for a third of China’s copper production in recent years, according to the association. China recycled 600,000 metric tons in metal content of domestically sourced copper scrap in 2008, and imported 5.6 million tons in physical weight last year, figures provided by Zhai showed.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...amp;refer=china

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...