John Doe Posted March 11, 2011 Report Share Posted March 11, 2011 The BOE seasonally adjust, the NSA are not widely available but are closer to the CML, there is a thread on HPC about it. BoE Jan figures 45,723 CML Jan figures 28,500 That's some seasonal adjustment I'm going to seasonally adjust the weather i think, You couldn't do something about the snow up here in bonny Scotland while you're at it, could you? (please ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted March 11, 2011 Report Share Posted March 11, 2011 BoE Jan figures 45,723 CML Jan figures 28,500 That's some seasonal adjustment You couldn't do something about the snow up here in bonny Scotland while you're at it, could you? (please ) Read the thread on HPC. Aren't the BOE also only approvals which don't always translate into lending. You need to buy a house and leverage yourself to the hilt, then i can adjust it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted March 11, 2011 Report Share Posted March 11, 2011 Read the thread on HPC. Aren't the BOE also only approvals which don't always translate into lending. You need to buy a house and leverage yourself to the hilt, then i can adjust it for you. Errm, Ok, so I have read the HPC thread. The number of approvals has risen massively (albeit, from a small base) and the number advanced currently is low. But, there is always a delay between approved and advanced. Advanced will, therefore, rise over the next few months. So what's your point exactly? Only a fool would leverage their selves to the hilt now. Did you mistake me for a bull? Read my previous posts. I am no bull, but I do believe in balanced views, instead of wishful group think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurtz Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Errm, Ok, so I have read the HPC thread. The number of approvals has risen massively (albeit, from a small base) and the number advanced currently is low. But, there is always a delay between approved and advanced. Advanced will, therefore, rise over the next few months. So what's your point exactly? Only a fool would leverage their selves to the hilt now. Did you mistake me for a bull? Read my previous posts. I am no bull, but I do believe in balanced views, instead of wishful group think. Unless folk think more printing and Wiemar II are foregone conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Unless folk think more printing and Wiemar II are foregone conclusions. Don't know about forgone conclusions, but I think more printing is quite possible. Assuming you own your property outright, with inflation at 5% (at least) and long term fixed rates low, it might be an idea to leverage up to the hilt, then invest the money elsewhere. Of course, that's just what many rich people might just be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Errm, Ok, so I have read the HPC thread. The number of approvals has risen massively (albeit, from a small base) and the number advanced currently is low. But, there is always a delay between approved and advanced. Advanced will, therefore, rise over the next few months. So what's your point exactly? Only a fool would leverage their selves to the hilt now. Did you mistake me for a bull? Read my previous posts. I am no bull, but I do believe in balanced views, instead of wishful group think. Sorry my mistake they are talking about the BBA figures being adjusted. The last sentence in my previous post was meant to be a joke about the weather, poorly put i'm sure. Anyway aren't you a bull? in regards to being balanced, it wasn't on the way up, so why should it be on the way down. The UK is in a phoney war period at the moment. Just my opinion of course. Saying that i'm going to view a house shortly:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Sorry my mistake they are talking about the BBA figures being adjusted. The last sentence in my previous post was meant to be a joke about the weather, poorly put i'm sure. Anyway aren't you a bull? in regards to being balanced, it wasn't on the way up, so why should it be on the way down. The UK is in a phoney war period at the moment. Just my opinion of course. Saying that i'm going to view a house shortly:( Sorry, I guess I misread your joke. But no, I am not bullish. I expect a nominal fall of about 10% over the next year or so (think it was about Sep/Oct 2010 that I made that prediction) and more in real terms. However, it does sometimes seem that, compared to many here, that my mildly bearish views put me on the bullish side of the posts. I just don't see the "end of the world" scenario happening and also see low rates continuing for a good while yet. I think inflation will fall back as the year progresses and the blip in IR rise talk will abate. I also think (from local evidence) that nice areas are holding up well and that the not-so-nice areas have - and will continue to - bear the brunt of the falls. There are still a lot of people with a lot of money that want to live in the nice areas (with the good schools etc) and are still paying over the odds to do so. So how come you're off to see a house? I'm guessing it's a BMV do-er-uper. I remember you are in the trade yes? We got a real bargain like that in the dip in 2009 after STRing, for the second time in late 2007, and I have to say, even with the falls I expect, for us it was absolutely the right thing to do. (Of course it helps that, due to luck and timing, we can absorb a drop in the market, from current value, of ~25% before we are in a loss position). PS I have always said that if a shock event causes rates to really rise (i.e. several percent) then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delboy Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Update on House. I put in an offer of 410K. Email from agent states " vendor already has an offer of 550K which they are considering, you offer is out of the ball court" I responded " Sorry your email is unclear. Did you say they had seen the offer, read it and rejected it?" I am awaiting a response. Remembering that the asking price was an over inflated 560K why would they be considering it? I'd bite their hand off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Sorry, I guess I misread your joke. But no, I am not bullish. I expect a nominal fall of about 10% over the next year or so (think it was about Sep/Oct 2010 that I made that prediction) and more in real terms. However, it does sometimes seem that, compared to many here, that my mildly bearish views put me on the bullish side of the posts. I just don't see the "end of the world" scenario happening and also see low rates continuing for a good while yet. I think inflation will fall back as the year progresses and the blip in IR rise talk will abate. I also think (from local evidence) that nice areas are holding up well and that the not-so-nice areas have - and will continue to - bear the brunt of the falls. There are still a lot of people with a lot of money that want to live in the nice areas (with the good schools etc) and are still paying over the odds to do so. So how come you're off to see a house? I'm guessing it's a BMV do-er-uper. I remember you are in the trade yes? We got a real bargain like that in the dip in 2009 after STRing, for the second time in late 2007, and I have to say, even with the falls I expect, for us it was absolutely the right thing to do. (Of course it helps that, due to luck and timing, we can absorb a drop in the market, from current value, of ~25% before we are in a loss position). PS I have always said that if a shock event causes rates to really rise (i.e. several percent) then all bets are off. Yes was a BMV needing complete renovation, seems the owner is on the verge of repossession. Paining over an offer, but suspect it sold already as the agent selling is renowned for under hand tactics, the house was listed on their website this morning but not on Rightmove and someone else was viewing it with me. 2008/2009 seems to have been the time to buy when the fear was at it's height. The postcode i'm looking a few where sold then at 2002 prices, anything that gets reduced to around 2004/2005 prices now gets snapped up now. Not specifically looking for a do-it-uper, just something priced to sell. If it doesn't happen within the nest few months, then i'm of to Thailand to see how long £10K will last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Unless folk think more printing and Wiemar II are foregone conclusions. That would CRUSH housing of course. The real value of houses would shrink drastically compared to the "price of beans", as people downsize to cover essentials. If we see inflation, it will not be "your father's inflation" - and those who buy property will get steamrolled- and they will deserve it for being so frigging stupid, and not doing their homewrok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 12, 2011 Report Share Posted March 12, 2011 Update on House. I put in an offer of 410K. Email from agent states " vendor already has an offer of 550K which they are considering, you offer is out of the ball court" I responded " Sorry your email is unclear. Did you say they had seen the offer, read it and rejected it?" I am awaiting a response. Remembering that the asking price was an over inflated 560K why would they be considering it? I'd bite their hand off! Tell them: "Thanks, but no thanks. I will deal with a more fair minded agent next time - when I expect to be paying far less." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurtz Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 That would CRUSH housing of course. The real value of houses would shrink drastically compared to the "price of beans", as people downsize to cover essentials. If we see inflation, it will not be "your father's inflation" - and those who buy property will get steamrolled- and they will deserve it for being so frigging stupid, and not doing their homewrok I'm so glad I just built a house in the jungle and thus exempt from all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 Bovis reporting good results, dividend resumption and a good start to 2011. (Similar from Persimmon last week) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12729865 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 Update on House. I put in an offer of 410K. Email from agent states " vendor already has an offer of 550K which they are considering, you offer is out of the ball court" I responded " Sorry your email is unclear. Did you say they had seen the offer, read it and rejected it?" I am awaiting a response. Remembering that the asking price was an over inflated 560K why would they be considering it? I'd bite their hand off! Legally I believe they have to show the offer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 Legally I believe they have to show the offer? If he comes back and says: "They rejected it." You might try this: "Repeating my previous, minus Pds.5,000, awaiting realistic counter offer." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 Bovis reporting good results, dividend resumption and a good start to 2011. (Similar from Persimmon last week) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12729865 No mention of near slave wages being paid now in that article is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 I'm so glad I just built a house in the jungle and thus exempt from all this. You don't eat tinned beans then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurtz Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 You don't eat tinned beans then? For the first time in a year, yesterday. Fresh veg and fresh chicken mostly. Black rice or pasta. Herbs and wotnot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoldAsBrass Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 Update on House. I put in an offer of 410K. Email from agent states " vendor already has an offer of 550K which they are considering, you offer is out of the ball court" I responded " Sorry your email is unclear. Did you say they had seen the offer, read it and rejected it?" I am awaiting a response. Remembering that the asking price was an over inflated 560K why would they be considering it? I'd bite their hand off! Yes, do remind them of their obligations under the Estate Agents Act 1979. From the OFT web site: 'Informing clients about offers You must give your clients written details of all offers received from potential buyers. This information must be passed on promptly. It can be sent by hand, post or fax. You should keep a written record of all offers that you receive. If your client tells you in writing that it isn't necessary to pass on certain offers, you don't have to write in those circumstances. For example, this could happen if the client doesn't want you to write with offers below a specific price level.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 No mention of near slave wages being paid now in that article is there. I guess that explains the better margins, as I'm fairly sure the house prices aren't rising. Out of interest, what's the average going rate now (per 1000 or per m^2)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 I guess that explains the better margins, as I'm fairly sure the house prices aren't rising. Out of interest, what's the average going rate now (per 1000 or per m^2)? I'm hearing prices as low as £220 per thousand and £6 m2 of 100mm blockwork. The north being the worst prices. Hearing many stories of people getting bumped on wages, whether this is down to the national house builders not paying the subbie in the first instance or just the subbies not paying the workers i'm not sure, but maybe a bit of both. To put into context, before the crash, prices where £380-£500 per thousand and £10-£12 m2 of 100mm blockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 The only way I can describe this person is 'psychologically unhinged'. I am also pretty sure she is not the only person in the country that is obsessed with property this way. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/8369047/Confessions-of-a-property-website-addict.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondlife Posted March 14, 2011 Report Share Posted March 14, 2011 Legally I believe they have to show the offer? But they dont. My sister recently put 2 offers in on a house, both declined according to EA. Asked for counter offer and no response. Posts letter to owner and eventually gets a response (he lives away). Neither of her offers had been passed on by EA and owner and sister agree on her first offer - no EA now involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 The only way I can describe this person is 'psychologically unhinged'. I am also pretty sure she is not the only person in the country that is obsessed with property this way. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/8369047/Confessions-of-a-property-website-addict.html I find myself doing the same thing. In the States we've got Trulia and Zillow, oh my. This was cute: Roberto_197503/13/2011 09:10 AM Recommended by 24 people ........... clearly not getting enough sausage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoldAsBrass Posted March 15, 2011 Report Share Posted March 15, 2011 But they dont. My sister recently put 2 offers in on a house, both declined according to EA. Asked for counter offer and no response. Posts letter to owner and eventually gets a response (he lives away). Neither of her offers had been passed on by EA and owner and sister agree on her first offer - no EA now involved. Legally, they do. If they don't they are breaking the law and the vendor or buyer could report them to the Office of Fair Trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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