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Cycle TURN Dates, incl. Bradley Turn Dates


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CYCLE TURN DATES, including Bradley Turn Dates

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I have started a new thread to keep an eye on so called turn dates and check out how good they are at predicting turns in the markets.

The chart below shows the S&P over the last year on which i have attempted to illustrate the Bradley turn dates through the use of up and down arrows on the date. Part of the reason i have added both up and down arrows is that Bradley turns are meant to show a turn is due, but not the direction.

Some have worked out very well, some less so. The most impressive being the two marked as "A most important date".

The dates for the record are:

These are the eight Bradley Turn Dates for the remainder of 2007 and 2008:

December 22, 2007 (A most important date)
March 8 to March 9, 2008
April 4, 2008
April 27, 2008
May 24, 2008
June 6, 2008 (A most important date)
September 9, 2008
September 20, 2008
December 14, 2008 (A most important date)

So, the next date is tomorrow, the 9th September. With the markets rising into the turn date, does this mean that the market will turn down tomorrow?

BradleyTurns.png

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Great idea for a thread. 9th September is my birthday.

 

We should try and get some of those Armstrong turn dates in.

 

Also if anyone follows Arch Crawford he may have some turn dates as well.

 

Thanks CC. Hope you are having a great birthday.

 

Well, Bradley delivered in spades today. The markets rose into today's turn date and promptly fell. The Dow fell 347 points from today's high, closing 280 points down from yesterday's close. Bloomberg is just reporting that the S&P's fall of 3.4% is the largest since February 2007.

 

If this turn is to prove a proper turn though, the markets ought to continue falling for some time. Though bear in mind we have another Bradley turn in just under 2 weeks, the 20th September; two days before the autumn equinox.

 

 

 

 

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Nice one DD (does this imply down untill 20th Sept?)

That was the date F&F were due

 

Happy birthday CC

JD

 

Thanks. Not neccesarilly, the markets could fall for a bit, then rise into the 20th Sept turn. In which case if the 20th does prove to be a turn date then the market could continue its falls. Too early to say in summary.

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We should try and get some of those Armstrong turn dates in.

 

I have been looking for the Armstrong dates on the web and have found the following. I have not confirmed the asterisk one. How does the 2008.225 correspond to a regular date? In the case of 2007.15 I thought it would just be .15 * 365, but it doesnt seem to work out quite right. Any thoughts?

 

2007.15... 02/27/07

 

2008.225 March 21 2008? *

 

2009.3... 04/23/09

 

2011.45... 06/18/11

 

2013.6... 08/12/13

 

2015.75... 10/07/15

 

 

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The market has obviously continued its impressive falls, so the Bradley turn of the 9th i am going to call a hit.

 

The next Bradley turn (20th Sept) is nearly upon us already. The 20th is obviously this Saturday, so if it transpires it could happen either Friday or Monday i guess.

 

Sandy Jadeja (Chief Market Strategist for ODL Markets) is targetting a 'time analysis' turn date of the 22nd Sept (Monday). He uses fibbo. I know how to calculate these, but cant be bothered to spend ages verifying it right now.

 

So, we have two different methods which both come up with virtually the same date, which add strength to it. Given that the markets appear to be falling into this turn, it currently appears that if they work they will prove to mark a turn up. Though we still have a couple of days to go, so things may change.

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The next Bradley turn (20th Sept) is nearly upon us already. The 20th is obviously this Saturday, so if it transpires it could happen either Friday or Monday i guess.

 

Sandy Jadeja (Chief Market Strategist for ODL Markets) is targetting a 'time analysis' turn date of the 22nd Sept (Monday).

 

The markets certainly turned Friday in most parts of the world, the exception being the US obviously where Thursday was the turn day. Given the size of the turn-around (e.g, a record one day points rise on the FTSE) i think it must be classified as another hit for Bradley irrespective of how long lived it is.

 

So, now the question is, will the time analysis turn date of Monday prove to be another turn, this time down? Or was it just out by a day or two? Next week will tell us.

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The markets certainly turned Friday in most parts of the world, the exception being the US obviously where Thursday was the turn day. Given the size of the turn-around (e.g, a record one day points rise on the FTSE) i think it must be classified as another hit for Bradley irrespective of how long lived it is.

 

20th Sept. was rather close to the VIX-42 day

 

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  • 2 months later...

The last Bradley turn date of 2008 is December 14, 2008 (A most important date). This is today and obviously the nearest trading day is tomorrow. Given that the market hasn't had any real direction recently, trading sideways, i guess it suggests that if it works we should get a sustained move in one direction.

 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
The last Bradley turn date of 2008 is December 14, 2008 (A most important date). This is today and obviously the nearest trading day is tomorrow. Given that the market hasn't had any real direction recently, trading sideways, i guess it suggests that if it works we should get a sustained move in one direction.

 

The 14th gave us no real direction change, i think it can be classified as a miss.

 

The 2009 Bradley Turn Dates:

 

January 20-21

Feburary 8-9

June 3

June 26

July 14-15

September 14-15

October 22-23

November 9

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Larry P. (on TFNN) has Friday (yesterday) or Monday (12.Jan) as a TURN date.

 

He thinks: down-to-up

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Robert Tew's Bradley chart for 2009

br2009.jpg

/see: http://robertew.com/html/bradley.html

 

Another:

bradley2009.GIF : Note differences!

http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm

 

Actual SPY ... update

biglk0.gif

 

From Amanita:

"The Bradley siderograph was developed in the 40ies by Donald Bradley to forecast the stock markets (link book). Bradley assigned numerical values to certain planetary constellations for every day, and the sum is the siderograph. It was originally intended to predict the stock markets. The noted technical analyst William Eng singled out the Bradley model as the only 'excellent' Timing Indicator in his book, "Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options, and Futures" (source: Astrikos).

 

It is crucial to understand what the siderograph is about since almost all traders (and even and even financial astrologers!) misunderstand it. Over the decades it has been observed that the siderograph can NOT (!!!) reliably predict the direction but only turning points in the financial markets (stocks, bonds, bonds, commodities) within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days (in a few cases up to +/- 7 days). Inversions (i.e. a high instead of a low and vice versa) are quite common. Also, it is not a timing tool for short-term trends but rather for intermediate-term to longer-term trends because the turning window is rather wide."

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NOT ENOUGH BEARS -says Hulbert

 

"Yet another newsletter editor will declare that the bear market ended at its Nov. 20 low, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:Dow Jones Industrial Average/ Last: 8,599.18-143.28-1.64%) closed at 7,552.29.

 

Contrarians are nevertheless troubled by this emerging consensus. Yes, the rally since Nov. 20 has been impressive, with the Dow at Tuesday's close some 20% higher than where it stood at that low. But contrarians would be more willing to believe in the rally's sustainability if there weren't so many advisers already arguing that the bear market is over.

 

To give you an idea how quickly this emerging consensus has been formed, consider the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI). This index represents the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

 

On Nov. 20, HSNSI closed at minus 18.9%, which meant at that time that the editor of the average short-term market timing newsletter was recommending that his clients allocate 18.9% of their equity portfolios to shorting stocks. As of Tuesday night, in contrast, the HSNSI stood at 43.5%, or 62.4 percentage points higher.

 

Such a big jump in just a month and a half strikes me as worrisome. If Nov. 20 really and truly marked the final low of the bear market, and sentiment adhered to contrarian theory, then the recent rally would have been met by disbelief and skepticism. This is not what we have actually seen. In fact, there has been an eagerness to jump on the bullish bandwagon.

 

/more: http://www.marketobservation.com/blogs/ind...=1&m=200901

 

Typical comment : Bottom being formed - says Farrish

 

"In 2002-03 when the market created a bottom following the correction in 2000-02, it took 9 months to build a bottom and no one believed then the next uptrend was being built. Many don't believe we are building a bottom now. The doom and gloom is returning and calling for another crash. Time will tell. Follow the trend it will lead you where you want to go. For now the short term trend is up, the long term trend is down. That makes this a short term rally in an overall bear market. My strategy says to play this move, but with tighter stops in place should the sentiment and trend shift back to the downside. I am playing with caution the short term trend. I have targets defined as to where I want to go and I have stops to prevent me from giving back the gains I have experienced in the move higher. And I continue to find entry points on positions I am willing to play. You can track each of these on SectorExchange.com every night. But, you have to have a disciplined strategy in order to capture market moves and trends."

 

http://www.greenfaucet.com/node/5209

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As I understand it Bradley provides turning points but not the direction of the move - is my understanding correct?

 

Armstrong says (I read a recent piece he put out) that the Major turning points (8.6 years) are precise. The other, interim dates, are not fixed as such.

 

 

 

Doc - I am also troubled by the amount of bullish comments, I think we have made A low, but not THE low.

 

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As I understand it Bradley provides turning points but not the direction of the move - is my understanding correct?

 

Armstrong says (I read a recent piece he put out) that the Major turning points (8.6 years) are precise. The other, interim dates, are not fixed as such.

 

Doc - I am also troubled by the amount of bullish comments, I think we have made A low, but not THE low.

 

You are right on the meaning of TURN dates in the Bradley system.

I tend to agree with your market assessment

 

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The 2009 Bradley Turn Dates:

 

January 20-21

Feburary 8-9

June 3

June 26

July 14-15

September 14-15

October 22-23

November 9

 

We have obviously been falling hard into today for the past two weeks or so and late today we got a big turn around in the US, with the Dow closing up 279 points (3.5%). If this up trend is maintained for a while longer then it looks like the first Bradley turn for the year will be a hit.

 

Note, the next turn is only just over two weeks away. Maybe a bit of a long shot this, but if this market were to rise strongly till then, with the markets making new highs above those of early Jan, then keep an eye out for a possible 5th wave fast turn down to new bear market lows - maybe finishing around Armstrong's spring turn.

 

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Note, the next turn is only just over two weeks away. Maybe a bit of a long shot this, but if this market were to rise strongly till then, with the markets making new highs above those of early Jan, then keep an eye out for a possible 5th wave fast turn down to new bear market lows - maybe finishing around Armstrong's spring turn.

 

This worries me - have we hit bottom or is there a little extra surprise to come?. I think we have but I'm trading this market and may not buy the next set of lows in case it turns into a 5th leg down.

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  • 4 weeks later...

We had a bradley turn on the 8th/9th of Feb that i forgot to mention at the time. The markets rose into the 9th (8th was a Sunday) and turned down on the 9th (e.g, the Dow lost 600 points in the following three sessions), so if the highs of a week ago hold for some while longer (as i suspect they will) then this turn date can be scored as a hit. I will keep an eye on developments.

 

 

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It is a bit early,

But I am seeing some evidence of a possible upturn in stocks from here

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  • 3 months later...

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