happy Posted July 1, 2013 Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 CHANGED FORECAST / Latest from 29. May, 2013 transcript Glenn Neely said: I've had to make some adjustments of what's happened since then and where we stand because the 2000 peak produced a big correction, and of course, the 2007 high and 2008 period created an even larger correction, which was the largest since the Great Depression. It changed the way I'm counting this in detail. It does not change my long-term forecast. I still think we're going to 100,000 by 2060 and maybe even up to 200,000 or 300,000. It just changes the labeling a little bit here and there. … That's the bigger picture and how I'm correlating it to the long-term count. It's not as important if the count from 1982 to 2000 or 2007 is correct. What's really important and where the focus should be now is from 2007 forward. There's virtually no doubt in my mind that we're in a corrective pattern. That corrective pattern is in the B wave. The B wave phase is very close to ending another corrective pattern. We're ready for another big decline. That's the important thing to realise for the short term and preparing for the next economic downturn. … {paraphrasing} scenario 1) "I don't think it's the best option anymore" 1982 - 2000 = Wave 3, currently in expanding Wave 4 that projects "a C wave drop back below 2009's low". scenario 2) "my preferred scenario" 1982-2007/2008 = Wave 3, currently in expanding Wave 4 correction that projects to "a higher level, not at the level of 2009, but late in 2009. I think it was in October." ... Toward the end, you get this break above the top of the channel or what's called a "throw-over." You get a lot of excitement, media frenzy and prices just advancing very quickly. We're getting into that right now. … We're going to peak this year, probably mid-year, give or take, and that'll be the end of the B wave rally. By the end of the year, we'll start the C wave decline. … The decline in 2007 and 2008 was just over about a year and a quarter. It [the anticipated correction] would be more like a three-year decline in total. It may be two and a half or something like that. It should be slower, but it could be larger in price. It should definitely be similar in price. It doesn't mean we're going to break the 2009 low, but we should easily get to $900. … Then that would be a generational buying opportunity. ... I'm not sure how it's going to all pan out. What is very obvious to me and almost definitely certain is that the B wave rally will be coming to an end pretty soon and the C wave decline is going to last two to three years. It's going to retrace about 50% of current levels, so from $1,500 to maybe $800 or $900. Then from there, we may start another big rally. ... Generally speaking, the stock market is going to top sometime in the next few months, probably around midsummer, give or take a month or so. That will be the end of the bull market that we've seen from the low in 2009, and we're going to start another big bear market similar in magnitude to the 2008 or 2009 crash. It'll be a slower decline but similar in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2014 DEFLATION, not Hyperinflation : Latest Neowave Warning Website@neowave.com / Jun 15 2014 at 9:03 AM While many believe the U.S. is on the verge of hyperinflation... (due to massive government borrowing and overspending), evidence continues to show the opposite. For the first time in history, the European Central Bank has introduced a negative interest rate of 0.1% (i.e., they will pay banks to borrow money in an attempt to induce more lending). When you increase lending you increase the money supply and decrease the value of each dollar in circulation (thus inflation). The only reason they would undertake such a desperate measure is to stop deflation. Why is deflation so dangerous to the banking system? The entire lending business depends on price stability or inflation to avoid widespread loan defaults. If prices drop across the board, which is what occurs during deflation, all loan contracts become more difficult to pay and, therefore, less likely to be honored. For example, let's assume you obtained a home loan for $100,000. Soon after purchase, the price of your home dropped in half (due to massive deflation). In that example, your home would now be worth $50,000 but the loan would still be for $100,000. Your loan would be twice as difficult to pay off. Many owners would decide there is no incentive to keep the home or pay the loan; so, they walk away. For that reason, any strong deflationary period would devastate the banking industry (that's why they fight so hard to avoid it). Unfortunately, the longer deflation is postponed, the faster and more severe it can occur when it strikes. This recent news reinforces my multi-year position that the U.S. began a deflationary period 1-2 years ago and that it will accelerate over the next 1-2-3 years. You can read more about the European Central Bank's recent decision in BBC news at the below link...http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27717594 Glenn Neely NEoWave, Inc. Some charts (from DrB) to go with this: CRB / Commodity Research Bureau Index Gold-to-CRB Ratio XLF / Banking Sector etf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2014 EXCERPT - from latest email from Neowave Of the four markets NEoWave follows, trading in the Euro has been the best for many months. Weekly traders have been Short this market since mid-July and are currently in an open-trade profit of more than $7,000 per contract. Monthly traders have been Long the EUO (an inverse ETF) since the same mid-July period - that position is up more than 8%. In case you follow or have interest in the Euro, the latest NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services are attached, to get you up-to-date. Sincerely,Glenn Neely, NEoWave, Inc. FXE / etf for the Euro - Next key support (per this chart) is FXE- 126.0 - 126.3 Compare: I want to see if there are signs of a Top being put in place at around DXY-84... All Data RSI at 80 is a real warning sign. However, please note that the High in DXY is often put in AFTER the high in RSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Stock BULLS Glenn Neely’s recent Forecasting service shows a 300-400 point rally in the SPY is extremely likely, which strongly correlates to the historic performance record for the next 6 months. Consider another statistic The most significant S&P signal occurs in October during the MACD daily cross – the latest occurred on October 22, 2014. That signal suggests a person stay invested until the following April until the MACD crosses down. It’s track-record is startling. If you invested $10,000 in the S&P, on this same day every year since 1950, the value today would be $2,077,413 (the exit signal always occurs the following April). Ignoring this signal, and instead investing during the opposite period (April to October) would have turned your $10,000 into just $3,250 - shocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2015 maybe that very weak CRB index will help to explain this... GOLD's BEAR market is not over, warns Glen Neely Do you remember when Gold topped $1,920/ounce in 2011? If so, it was during that period Mr. Neely began warning that Gold's bull market was ending. Those warnings were correct. Unfortunately, Mr. Neely could not confirm his suspicions, using Wave theory, until eighteen months later (on February 5, 2013) with Gold at $1672/ounce. That is when he “officially” declared a multi-year bear market had begun in the precious metal (see historic forecast on attached chart). Recently, the Gold market broke $1,100/ounce (more than $800 off its all-time high)! According to Mr. Neely, Gold will easily break $1,000/ounce later this year – and eventually break $800 in the next few years or less. Currently, Timer Digest identifies Mr. Neely as a contender for "Gold Timer of the Year" in its mid-year report. Click to view complete results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted September 27, 2015 Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 Didn't Neely say gold to $350 somewhere? That's near enough Prechters $250. We will have to wait and see, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2016 NEOWAVE Warning : Top in early 2017? NEOWAVE: What Went Wrong With My 2015 Bear Market Call 18 Dec at 12:31 PM / from : Neowave.com As you may remember, in mid August 2015, I issued a warning that the S&P had started a multi-year bear market. It was issued 1-hour before Friday’s close…the next Monday morning, the S&P experienced its largest intra-day collapse in history (see Chart 1). At the time, I assumed a 2-3 year bear market had begun that was eventually going to form wave-© of a Flat (starting at 2008’s high). Within a few weeks, I realized there were 2 additional options; so, I released three scenarios (a worst-case, a most-likely and best-case outlook). A few weeks afterward, the best case scenario was the only remaining option. It was then that I warned customers the S&P would at least consolidate for 6-12 months, which it did. Unfortunately, for nearly a year, I was not sure how to structurally label the smaller structure within that best-case scenario. Turns out my original assumption was the right way to go; what I thought was the start of a new bear market (in August 2015) was actually a second X-wave within a more complex, triple-combination corrective rally starting off 2009’s low (see Chart 2).Due of the S&P’s recent series of all-time new highs, Wave structure has begun to clear substantially (even on weekly and daily time frames). That has allowed me to provide more detail on Chart 3, which now precisely labels all price action since this year’s low. If the S&P proceeds as expected on Chart 3 (see red-dashed line), we can expect a major pattern conclusion and top to form in the first few months of 2017. . . .As Wave structure clears, my market forecasts will improve in ALL markets and on ALL time frames. Iin August 2015, the violent drop appeared to be the start of a new bear market; it is now clear how the S&P "tricked me" into that assumption. Despite that mis-call (one of the worst in my career), based on my 35 year track record, the odds are good I won’t miss the major top that is coming. Don't expect this to be easy and expect a lot more bullishness and market excitement to emerge before this pattern is over. During this crucial preparation period, it is wise to prepare for what's coming by making sure you're getting the S&P Forecasting and Trading services. Use the link below...https://www.neowave.com/market-forecasting.aspGlenn Neely, NEoWave, Inc. (by email) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2017 NEOWAVE WARNING "... the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months... " SPX (etf for S&P500) ... update : SPY : INDU : IWM : XLF / Last: $2,399.62 - rising on lighter volume (so far) NEOWAVE: Extreme Market Risk magelan@neowave.com 9 May at 7:53 AM In the last 35-years, there have been ONLY 4 occasions when I was certain a stock market crash was coming – they were the high in 1987, the high in 2000 (the internet bubble), the end of the real estate boom in early 2008 and the high made August 2015. In ALL cases, a massive decline followed.At this time, based on all the things I know about the U.S. stock market (current Wave structure implications, U.S. margin debt, insider traders selling stock, overbought warnings from my Moat Index, a rising interest rate environment and the volume of new accounts being opened at brokerage firms in 2017 around the country), THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I'm VERY concerned a "Stock Market Crash" is just 1-3 months away.The two ingredients currently missing from the typical setup for a major market top is volatility (which is normally high at major tops and bottoms) and widespread media coverage. With those two elements absent, the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months. Such behavior will increase volatility and definitely get the attention of the main stream media. Whether the S&P soars to new highs over the next 1-2 months and volatility increases OR the S&P simply sells off and begins a violent decline from a lower high, the odds are EXTREMELY HIGH - in the next 1-3 months - that the U.S. stock market will experience its largest, fastest decline in 10 years! That violent drop will be the start of a 2-4 year bear market that retraces at least 50% of the 2009-2017 bull market. If you look at the attached long-term (6-monthly) chart, you can see my best guess at Wave structure back to 2000's high and the S&P current position and what I expect (the red-dashed line). Keep in mind, a "blow off" advance of 5-10% might occur this month or next BEFORE the crash begins. Either way, I'm fairly confident a multi-year bear market will begin in 2017. We can only guess what might instigate the next bear market but many possibilities exist. The Fed continuing to raise interest rates historically is enough. The tensions between North Korea, China, the U.S. and Russia is another factor. Massive borrowing by U.S. corporations to buy their own stock, which will eventually have to be paid back, is another concern. Eventually, the cause of the bear market will be decided but, in the mean time, you should prepare. (by email) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 From Glen Neely, at NEOWAVE : a POWERFUL 1-2 week rally ... then a 50% drop over 3-5 years? cs@neowave.com / 19 Dec 2018 at 23:14 Two days ago, I took a HUGE public risk and issued this S&P warning along with the attached "1-SP daily" chart... After today's wash-out, all NEoWave structural criteria is in place to create a POWERFUL 1-2 week rally (see attached chart). Thereafter, the recovery may slow down but the S&P should continue to advance into mid January. In the top right corner of that chart, you can see the rally predicted to come (red-dashed line). At the end of that projected rally, notice I warned of a "Possible END to Bull Market" in early 2019. Also notice that the "Possible END..." was plotted to occur at a LOWER HIGH.Today's "scary" sell-off (on Dec 29, 2018) pushed the S&P a little lower than expected but it does not alter the overall forecast in Monday's update. What it does do is change the LABELING in that chart. Instead of the S&P rallying to end wave-(D) at a lower high in early 2019, we can now confirm wave-(D) ended at 2018's high. So, the predicted red-dashed rally will become wave-b of a new bear market, instead. HOW COME I DIDN'T ORIGINALLY PLACE WAVE-(D) AT 2018's HIGH? The MOST important NEoWave innovation, which differentiates NEoWave from orthodox Elliott Wave, is the concept of market "self-confirmation." This is where the start of a new trend MUST move further and faster than the last counter-trend move of the prior pattern. UNTIL TODAY (Dec 19, 2018), the S&P had FAILED to achieve confirmation, which is why I could not objectively place wave-(D) at 2018's high. With today's action, the S&P has FINALLY dropped further and faster than any decline since wave-(C)'s termination - see attached 2-SP monthly (LT) chart. As a result, we can now objectively confirm wave-(D) ended at 2018's high.Chart 3-SP monthly provides clearer evidence of this year's drop falling further and faster than the prior largest decline that occurred in August 2015. Notice how much faster the drop is now than in 2015. THAT is what constitutes NEoWave Confirmation. If you have a copy of Mastering Elliott Wave, refer to Chapter 6 for more details on this concept. Chart 4-SP weekly gives a more detailed perspective on the progress of the new bear market. It shows the coming bounce as wave-b instead of the future conclusion of wave-(D) at a lower high, which is what I assumed would occur until today's drop finally confirmed wave-(D) was over. Now that we have behavioral proof wave-(D) is over, a more detailed, long-term prediction can be made. See the attached 5-SP 6month chart, which maps out the S&P's expected price action into the end of the next decade. It projects a 3-5 year bear market that will force the S&P to lose about 50% of its current value! If you'd like to keep up with the progress of this new, multi-year BEAR MARKET, please click the below link to subscribe to the NEoWave S&P Forecasting service. By the way, if you're interested in GOLD, Wave structure in that market has cleared up significantly this month, allowing me to more precisely predict that market than I've been able to do for a few years. NEoWave FORECASTING https://www.neowave.com/market-forecasting.asp Sincerely, Glenn Neely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2020 Yesterday afternoon, Mr. Neely conducted a FREE webinar on the S&P 500 (reviewing his forecasts from March and April of this year and then discussing what's next). To prepare for the next 5-years of tumultuous market action, you don't want to miss this presentation! To watch, simply click on the link below...https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4930637158511276558 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2020 http://audio.marketviews.tv/guests/other/swanson.mp3 The Stock Market Is Faltering, But Will It Crash? (With Ike Iossif) – Mike Swanson (07/29/2020) Posted on July 29, 2020 by Michael Swanson | Last week on Friday I did an important post about the major key reversals that happened in many of the leading Nasdaq big cap tech stocks titled On Thursday The Stock Market Rally Generals Got Shot. Then this week we saw gold and silver breakaway from the stock market averages and soar to new highs with silver clearing a stage one base. This is creating new trends that I believe a lot of traders should get into in order to beat the market. Yesterday the stock market faltered some more, but is it really heading for a crash? The risks are now to the downside, but there is one big thing happening that makes it unlikely that it will decline like the way it did this March or in 2008 or in the Fall of 2000 for that matter. I talked about this topic with Ike Iossif of marketviews.tv in this interview: http://audio.marketviews.tv/guests/other/swanson.mp3 Here is what I am watching now: 1)Today we have a FOMC meeting and tomorrow the US GDP numbers. How will the market act after these news items come out? 2)Gold and silver are clearly in new bull markets, but not all commodities have begin new bull markets yet. Will other commodities finally begin to follow the metals up? Today and tomorrow will be interesting, but the important big picture stuff is what I really talked with Ike about in the interview. If you are new to stock trading and technical analysis grab my book Strategic Stock Trading available on Amazon by clicking here. -Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Posted on July 29, 2020 by Michael Swanson | Last week on Friday I did an important post about the major key reversals that happened in many of the leading Nasdaq big cap tech stocks titled On Thursday The Stock Market Rally Generals Got Shot. Then this week we saw gold and silver breakaway from the stock market averages and soar to new highs with silver clearing a stage one base. This is creating new trends that I believe a lot of traders should get into in order to beat the market. Yesterday the stock market faltered some more, but is it really heading for a crash? The risks are now to the downside, but there is one big thing happening that makes it unlikely that it will decline like the way it did this March or in 2008 or in the Fall of 2000 for that matter. I talked about this topic with Ike Iossif of marketviews.tv in this interview: http://audio.marketviews.tv/guests/other/swanson.mp3 Here is what I am watching now: 1)Today we have a FOMC meeting and tomorrow the US GDP numbers. How will the market act after these news items come out? 2)Gold and silver are clearly in new bull markets, but not all commodities have begin new bull markets yet. Will other commodities finally begin to follow the metals up? Today and tomorrow will be interesting, but the important big picture stuff is what I really talked with Ike about in the interview. If you are new to stock trading and technical analysis grab my book Strategic Stock Trading available on Amazon by clicking here. -Mike
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